PGA First Look: RBC Heritage

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The PGA First Look is complete with a course preview, odds, salaries, Official World Golf Rankings, and course history.

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It’s going to be hard to compete with the Masters, but we have another golf tournament on tap this week in the RBC Heritage. We go from a bomber’s course in Augusta National to an accuracy, plodding type of course in Harbour Town Golf Links. This is a Pete Dye course and if you know anything about his designs, being on the right side of the hole matters. His courses generally penalize you if you are wild off the tee and most golfers will only hit a few drivers this week. Harbour Town is Par 71 that measures 7,099 yards. It features three par fives, four par threes, and 11 par fours. The strength of the field isn’t great this week, but we do have 18 of the top 50 golfers in the world teeing it up.

As with most Pete Dye courses, accuracy is a premium off the tee. You can look at driving accuracy, but I slightly prefer good drive percentage, which also takes into account drives in the rough that golfers were still able to reach the green in regulation. With a lot of golfers clubbing down off the tee, driving accuracy may not be the best statistic, since the longer hitters will be using three woods and irons anyway. More important than off the tee is the approach game. Harbour Town has very small greens, so being accurate with approaches is critical for creating birdie opportunities. Anytime we don’t have a Par 72, I like to factor in par four scoring. And as always, my two heaviest weighted stats are strokes gained tee to green and birdie or better percentage.

An interesting angle this week is what to do with the golfers that played in the Masters. The majors are a huge grind, both mentally and physically. The golfers that made the cut last week are coming off of a golf high unlike any other and may experience a little golf hangover. As crazy as it sounds, I almost prefer the golfers that missed the cut at the Masters. They have two extra days of rest and more time to practice at Harbour Town. Last year, Branden Grace missed the cut at the Masters and then followed it up with a win at the RBC Heritage. I’m not saying to fade the golfers that made the cut last week completely, but it’s at least something to keep in mind when building your lineups.

Cut Rule: Top 70 and ties will move on after the first two rounds.

Recent Winners of this Event: Branden Grace (2016), Jim Furyk (2015), Matt Kuchar (2014), Graeme McDowell (2013), Carl Pettersson (2012)

Key Statistics (In Order of Importance)

1) Strokes Gained Tee to Green
2) Birdie or Better %
3) Strokes Gained Approach
4) Par 4 Scoring
5) Good Drive %

Salaries, Odds, and Course History (2012-2016)

Golfer DK Salary FD Salary FDRFT Salary OWGR Odds DK Odds Diff FD Odds Diff FDRFT Odds Diff. Cuts 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012
Matt Kuchar $11,500 $10,000 $21,300 17 14 0% 0% 0% 5/5 9 5 1 35 44
Brandt Snedeker $10,500 $9,700 $19,900 25 20 33% 0% 0% 4/5 99 26 74 59 17
Branden Grace $10,000 $9,400 $19,800 22 22 25% 0% 0% 2/2 1 7 500 500 500
Kevin Kisner $9,700 $8,400 $19,500 37 24 20% 50% 33% 3/3 69 2 38 500 500
Russell Henley $10,700 $7,900 $19,700 55 25 -150% 64% -25% 2/4 23 77 125 6 500
Martin Kaymer $9,500 $8,500 $19,400 43 27 0% 14% 25% 2/2 500 500 23 66 500
Tyrrell Hatton $9,300 $8,200 $19,500 16 28 0% 36% -17% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Bill Haas $9,100 $9,000 $19,600 39 29 0% -60% -60% 3/4 14 31 500 24 95
Adam Hadwin $8,800 $8,400 $19,200 45 30 0% -13% 18% 1/2 30 87 500 500 500
Charley Hoffman $8,700 $8,100 $19,300 47 31 0% 17% -11% 5/5 14 64 38 6 8
Matthew Fitzpatrick $8,300 $7,800 $19,300 32 32 21% 31% -22% 1/2 83 500 23 500 500
Luke Donald $7,800 $8,700 $19,000 96 34 50% -100% 14% 5/5 2 15 2 3 37
Jason Dufner $8,500 $8,300 $19,100 65 37 -8% -30% -8% 4/4 54 37 500 35 24
Marc Leishman $8,100 $7,500 $18,900 31 38 22% 22% 7% 3/4 30 500 89 9 44
Jim Furyk $7,900 $9,200 $19,100 62 38 32% -275% -25% 4/4 500 1 7 42 8
Francesco Molinari $8,600 $7,900 $18,400 29 41 -45% -14% 24% 1/1 45 500 500 500 500
Russell Knox $8,000 $7,500 $18,600 27 42 15% 6% 6% 3/3 2 18 9 500 500
Billy Horschel $7,600 $7,100 $18,800 74 44 36% 28% -13% 4/4 54 51 68 9 500
William McGirt $7,900 $7,000 $18,100 50 45 14% 32% 21% 4/5 9 31 9 88 72
Pat Perez $8,100 $7,200 $18,500 57 45 -11% 13% -5% 3/3 500 26 18 18 500
Kevin Na $8,400 $7,200 $18,700 53 46 -62% 9% -24% 2/3 4 500 89 500 8
Graeme McDowell $8,000 $7,300 $18,300 86 48 -10% 0% 0% 3/4 99 26 23 1 500
Shane Lowry $7,500 $7,400 $18,500 66 49 23% -10% -21% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Bryson DeChambeau $8,300 $6,300 $18,200 107 52 -71% 38% -4% 1/1 4 500 500 500 500
Charles Howell $8,200 $7,600 $18,000 63 54 -56% -47% 0% 3/5 23 120 53 98 29
Keegan Bradley $8,200 $7,100 $17,900 98 60 -63% -4% 0% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Patrick Cantlay $7,600 $5,800 $17,600 214 60 4% 44% 4% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Wesley Bryan $7,700 $6,600 $17,200 73 64 -8% 10% 15% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Lucas Glover $7,200 $6,400 $17,100 119 65 28% 19% 17% 3/5 33 18 89 123 69
Rafael Cabrera-Bello $7,800 $8,000 $17,800 28 66 -25% -131% -11% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Luke List $7,300 $6,600 $17,000 113 67 14% 0% 14% 1/1 39 500 500 WD 500
Kyle Stanley $7,200 $6,000 $17,200 168 72 20% 29% 3% 2/4 33 500 108 98 60
Webb Simpson $7,200 $6,800 $17,400 69 76 18% -14% -10% 4/4 500 51 500 2 52
Jason Kokrak $7,700 $5,500 $17,300 111 80 -31% 43% -10% 4/5 6 18 12 71 110
Stewart Cink $7,100 $6,400 $16,600 197 80 22% 3% 10% 3/5 83 31 61 24 126
Danny Willett $7,100 $7,500 $17,300 19 82 20% -100% -16% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Anirban Lahiri $7,400 $5,800 $17,500 80 85 -16% 23% -28% 1/1 500 44 500 500 500
Chris Kirk $7,200 $5,800 $16,900 90 88 5% 21% -3% 4/5 23 69 27 30 72
Aaron Baddeley $7,100 $5,300 $16,100 134 92 13% 45% 11% 3/5 9 66 79 42 104
Graham DeLaet $7,500 $6,300 $16,300 128 95 -33% -3% 5% 2/4 14 101 500 108 44
Martin Laird $6,900 $7,100 $16,700 106 95 33% -64% -8% 1/3 500 51 122 500 95
Danny Lee $6,800 $6,500 $16,000 108 96 42% -24% 7% 1/3 99 60 89 500 500
Sung Kang $6,800 $5,500 $15,700 103 102 41% 28% 10% 0/2 106 500 500 500 117
Harris English $7,400 $6,200 $16,400 91 102 -38% -5% -7% 2/3 WD 500 31 92 8
Ollie Schniederjans $7,400 $6,600 $16,200 136 103 -41% -45% -5% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Harold Varner $7,300 $5,600 $16,500 122 104 -28% 18% -15% 1/1 68 500 500 500 500
Brian Harman $7,300 $5,600 $15,900 100 110 -31% 16% -2% 4/5 106 44 7 59 70
Jim Herman $6,900 $4,900 $15,500 78 112 21% 49% 8% 1/1 51 500 500 500 500
Cameron Smith $6,900 $5,700 $15,800 125 115 20% 6% -4% 1/1 500 15 500 500 500
Ian Poulter $7,300 $6,400 $15,600 210 115 -39% -39% 0% 2/2 54 18 500 500 500
J.J. Spaun $7,400 $6,300 $15,700 120 122 -59% -31% -6% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Brian Stuard $6,800 $5,100 $15,600 127 124 29% 33% -4% 2/3 500 55 5 92 500
D.A. Points $7,200 $5,600 $15,400 219 134 -33% 5% 0% 1/2 500 101 500 500 20
Dominic Bozzelli $6,600 $6,100 $15,400 141 134 44% -26% -2% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Michael Thompson $7,000 $5,100 $15,200 195 135 -4% 29% 2% 1/3 500 101 500 98 20
Michael Kim $7,000 $5,700 $15,100 207 135 -6% -8% 3% 1/1 76 500 500 500 500
Ryan Palmer $6,700 $6,700 $15,200 97 138 33% -90% -2% 2/2 71 500 500 64 500
John Peterson $6,900 $5,300 $15,100 535 139 5% 18% 0% 1/2 500 18 89 500 500
John Huh $6,900 $5,500 $15,000 196 143 3% 2% 3% 1/3 500 120 3 500 104
Zac Blair $6,500 $6,000 $14,800 233 145 45% -33% 12% 2/2 59 44 500 500 500
Boo Weekley $6,900 $5,200 $15,400 367 145 0% 19% -15% 5/5 39 75 53 42 6
Daniel Summerhays $6,600 $5,400 $15,100 84 147 36% 7% -7% 2/4 51 60 500 98 87
Whee Kim $6,700 $14,900 260 148 26% 0% 0% 1/1 6 500 500 500 500
David Hearn $7,100 $5,100 $14,900 179 150 -42% 18% -2% 1/5 96 77 79 87 72
Hideto Tanihara $7,000 $6,500 $15,000 49 152 -23% -91% -7% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Andrew Johnston $6,800 $5,800 $14,900 104 154 10% -38% -5% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Rafael Campos $7,100 $5,200 $14,800 393 157 -49% 11% 1% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Chad Campbell $7,100 $5,100 $14,700 180 160 -51% 13% 7% 2/4 23 87 500 116 24
David Lingmerth $7,100 $14,900 93 165 -53% 0% -10% 1/2 33 500 500 135 500
Vaughn Taylor $6,700 $5,500 $14,700 155 167 18% -17% 4% 2/3 64 500 103 500 13
James Hahn $7,000 $5,500 $14,700 79 167 -34% -18% 3% 3/4 83 60 500 500 500
Bryce Molder $6,500 $5,500 $14,900 234 169 34% -20% -14% 2/5 6 15 116 98 87
Geoff Ogilvy $6,500 $5,000 $14,800 191 169 33% 14% -7% 3/3 54 500 27 500 29
Robert Garrigus $6,500 $5,100 $14,700 204 170 32% 5% -1% 3/4 500 126 73 24 13
Morgan Hoffmann $7,000 $5,500 $14,600 182 170 -40% -23% 5% 2/3 23 9 500 108 500
Cheng-Tsung Pan $6,700 $4,700 $14,800 142 173 11% 29% -12% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Ben Martin $6,800 $5,000 $14,800 227 177 -5% 9% -13% 3/3 45 37 3 500 500
Scott Brown $7,100 $5,700 $14,500 117 178 -73% -50% 3% 4/4 64 37 5 64 500
Chez Reavie $6,800 $5,400 $14,600 135 186 -8% -18% -1% 3/4 33 126 500 55 56
Sam Saunders $7,000 $5,000 $14,300 329 198 -51% 6% 2% 0/2 99 77 500 500 500
Ryan Blaum $6,600 $5,700 $14,700 321 203 16% -56% -11% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Bud Cauley $6,800 $5,100 $14,200 181 211 -12% -5% 1% 1/2 500 500 500 116 37
Alex Cejka $6,500 $4,800 $14,100 186 216 24% 17% 2% 1/1 500 31 500 500 WD
Robert Streb $6,700 $6,100 $13,900 133 216 2% -93% 5% 1/3 99 44 500 500 500
Trey Mullinax $7,000 $4,700 $14,000 351 235 -60% 21% 1% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
J.J. Henry $6,500 $5,000 $13,900 398 240 21% -1% 1% 1/2 127 500 500 500 37
Roberto Castro $6,800 $4,700 $13,800 88 244 -19% 19% 4% 0/3 96 500 79 127 500
Camilo Villegas $6,700 $5,000 $13,900 325 246 -4% -4% -1% 3/3 71 WD 27 9 WD
Patton Kizzire $6,500 $4,900 $13,900 140 247 18% 5% -2% 1/1 14 500 500 500 500
Yuta Ikeda $6,600 $6,000 $13,800 44 248 7% -100% 1% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Ernie Els $6,400 $5,000 $14,200 383 250 25% -7% -10% 2/5 14 87 64 98 95
Blayne Barber $6,600 $4,900 $13,700 226 252 5% 2% 4% 0/1 83 500 500 500 500
Troy Merritt $6,900 $4,900 $13,800 223 256 -52% 1% -2% 1/1 500 3 500 500 500
Ryo Ishikawa $6,700 $4,900 $13,700 118 257 -11% 0% 2% 3/3 500 75 18 48 500
Fabian Gomez $6,800 $5,400 $13,800 114 258 -30% -42% -4% 1/1 45 500 500 WD 500
Kyle Reifers $6,600 $5,300 $13,800 190 263 1% -35% -5% 0/1 119 500 500 500 500
Johnson Wagner $6,900 $4,600 $13,700 230 264 -59% 14% -1% 2/4 39 87 89 18 500
Jonas Blixt $6,500 $5,100 $13,600 255 265 10% -26% 5% 1/2 500 87 500 78 500
Tyrone Van Aswegen $6,700 $5,400 $13,700 244 266 -16% -48% -3% 1/2 59 500 116 500 500
Nick Taylor $6,900 $5,000 $13,700 312 267 -64% -18% -4% 2/2 76 74 500 500 500
John Senden $6,800 $4,700 $13,500 213 271 -38% 6% 6% 1/1 23 500 500 500 500
Ricky Barnes $6,400 $4,900 $13,600 270 279 16% -9% 1% 4/5 9 37 38 71 72
Spencer Levin $6,600 $4,800 $13,700 283 279 -5% -2% -6% 3/4 45 101 38 500 37
Shawn Stefani $6,900 $4,800 $13,500 377 288 -70% -4% 3% 2/3 32 500 53 116 500
Kelly Kraft $7,000 $5,200 $13,600 178 292 -98% -40% -2% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Rod Pampling $6,700 $4,600 $13,700 152 298 -25% 6% -10% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Ben Crane $6,500 $5,000 $13,400 427 304 2% -26% 2% 3/4 500 37 89 48 500
Billy Hurley $6,400 $4,800 $13,300 137 305 11% -8% 3% 1/2 500 101 31 500 500
Grayson Murray $6,700 $4,700 $13,300 158 313 -28% -2% 2% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Davis Love $6,400 $4,700 $13,400 450 313 10% -2% 0% 1/2 59 500 108 500 500
Brian Gay $6,800 $4,500 $13,200 511 325 -52% 7% 3% 2/4 117 500 68 55 72
Matt Every $6,400 $4,500 $13,600 1100 325 8% 7% -8% 4/4 500 18 12 83 8
Andrew Loupe $6,400 $4,800 $13,100 262 334 7% -13% 3% 1/1 500 500 48 500 500
Fredrik Jacobson $6,400 $5,300 $13,100 240 352 6% -61% 3% 2/2 500 37 500 500 67
Derek Fathauer $6,400 $4,600 $13,300 206 360 5% -2% -4% 1/2 71 101 500 500 500
Mark Anderson $6,800 $4,500 $13,200 397 365 -59% 3% -1% 2/2 500 500 68 500 13
Greg Chalmers $6,900 $4,800 $13,000 274 373 -92% -17% 2% 1/1 500 500 WD WD 20
Hunter Mahan $6,600 $5,600 $13,300 624 373 -21% -109% -5% 1/2 500 500 89 91 500
Vijay Singh $6,900 $4,600 $13,000 257 396 -95% -5% 0% 2/4 66 51 103 98 500
K.J. Choi $6,500 $4,800 $13,000 188 396 -9% -19% 0% 2/4 99 115 31 18 500
Carl Pettersson $6,700 $4,500 $12,900 873 398 -42% -2% 1% 4/5 81 26 89 35 1
Brett Stegmaier $6,600 $4,500 $12,800 314 433 -26% -3% 3% 0/1 119 500 500 500 500
Steve Marino $6,400 $4,500 $12,800 440 438 -2% -3% 2% 1/3 114 500 31 92 500
Jason Bohn $6,400 $5,000 $12,900 326 438 -2% -45% -1% 4/5 69 55 108 66 44
Chad Collins $6,600 $4,600 $12,900 310 440 -29% -11% -2% 0/3 119 500 89 500 87
Peter Malnati $6,500 $4,600 $12,900 398 448 -16% -12% -3% 0/1 83 500 500 500 500
Ken Duke $6,700 $4,500 $12,700 345 463 -49% -7% 2% 3/5 106 87 48 18 60
Cheng Jin $6,600 $4,500 $12,800 483 -32% -8% -2% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Mark Hubbard $6,400 $4,500 $12,800 503 504 -7% -8% -2% 0/1 119 500 500 500 500
Tommy Gainey $6,600 $4,500 $12,600 546 -34% -9% 1% 3/3 WD 500 64 71 52
Steven Bowditch $6,500 $4,500 $12,500 571 798 -20% -10% 1% 1/3 500 44 116 92 500
Brooks Blackburn $6,400 $4,500 $12,500 1023 -9% -11% 0% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500

Color Coding
Course history in BLUE indicates a top ten finish.
Course history in GREEN indicates a top 25 finish.
Course history in YELLOW indicates a made cut with a finish outside of the top 25.
Course history in RED indicates a missed cut.

Legend

Term Description
Odds Diff The percentage differential between a golfer’s salary rank and odds rank. The higher the %, the better.
OWGR Official World Golf Ranking
Cuts Cut record of each golfer at this course in the last five seasons.
2012 – 2016 Columns Course history at this event in the last five seasons.

About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on Twitter – @RG_Notorious