PGA First Look: RBC Heritage

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2018-04-12 12:31:18

The PGA First Look is complete with a course preview, odds, salaries, Official World Golf Rankings, and course history.

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We typically have to nurse a hangover after each major, but we get right back into the thick of things with a strong field for the RBC Heritage. This is routinely voted as one of the best courses on tour, which helps explain why so many made the trek from Augusta National. Harbour Town is a Pete Dye design, which means distance will not be an advantage this week. His golf courses are all about positioning and playing smart golf shots, which is why we’ve seen so many plodders perform well here over the years (Matt Kuchar, Luke Donald, Jim Furyk, Graeme McDowell). Carolina courses are typically tree-lined where accuracy off the tee is critical and Harbour Town is no exception.

The course itself is a Par 71 that measures nearly 7,100 yards. It features three par fives, four par threes, and 11 par fours. This is one of the few weeks of the year where I completely take out off the tee statistics. The bombers will be forced to club down, so driving distance has no relevance. It’s also tough to trust driving accuracy as a predictor because the longer hitters that usually miss fairways are going to be clubbing down, which will turn into a higher driving accuracy than usual. Rather than trying to sort through that mess, I am treating this as a second shot golf course, which is why strokes gained on approaches is my biggest weight in my stat model this week.

Not only do you have to avoid the trees off the tee, but you also have to avoid the strategically placed bunkers. Even if you find the fairway, these are some of the most difficult greens to hit on tour. They are dome-shaped and are the smallest greens on average on the PGA Tour. Even the best ball strikers are going to miss a number of greens this week, so I’m placing a big emphasis on strokes gained around the green. The greens themselves are Bermuda, but they aren’t overly tricky. We’ve seen a mix of good and bad putters perform well here over the years. My focus this week will be on good iron players that have a solid short game and experience on Dye courses.

Cut Rule: Top 70 and ties will move on after the first two rounds. The MDF rule is in effect if more than 78 golfers make the initial cut.

Recent Winners of this Event: Wesley Bryan (2017), Branden Grace (2016), Jim Furyk (2015), Matt Kuchar (2014), Graeme McDowell (2013)

Key Statistics (In Order of Importance)

1) Strokes Gained Approach
2) Strokes Gained Around the Green
3) Par 4 Scoring
4) Par 5 Scoring
5) Bogey Avoidance

Hole by Hole Breakdown

Salaries, Odds, and Course History (2013-2017)

Golfer	DK Salary	FD Salary	FDRFT Salary	OWGR	Odds	DK Odds	FD Odds	FDRFT Odds	2017	2016	2015	2014	2013
Dustin Johnson	$12,000	$12,800	$17,800	1	8	0%	0%	0%	500	500	500	500	500
Paul Casey	$11,300	$12,000	$16,800	13	14	0%	0%	0%	500	83	500	18	500
Matt Kuchar	$10,800	$11,800	$16,200	21	18	0%	0%	0%	11	9	5	1	35
Marc Leishman	$10,300	$11,300	$15,600	16	25	0%	20%	0%	44	30	500	89	9
Brian Harman	$9,800	$10,600	$15,200	23	30	-40%	13%	0%	9	106	44	7	59
Webb Simpson	$9,400	$11,500	$15,100	43	30	0%	-50%	33%	11	66	51	500	2
Ian Poulter	$9,300	$9,500	$14,900	31	40	-143%	32%	-31%	11	54	18	500	500
Patrick Cantlay	$9,100	$10,400	$15,200	35	31	-25%	0%	-43%	3	500	500	500	500
Cameron Smith	$9,000	$9,800	$15,400	39	26	44%	75%	0%	29	500	15	500	500
Luke List	$8,900	$9,900	$14,800	67	39	-40%	22%	7%	75	39	500	500	500
Tyrrell Hatton	$8,800	$10,400	$15,300	18	31	18%	10%	-50%	29	500	500	500	500
Kevin Kisner	$8,700	$9,800	$15,000	25	34	8%	45%	0%	11	69	2	38	500
Emiliano Grillo	$8,600	$9,600	$15,000	69	38	8%	50%	-9%	500	500	500	500	500
Ryan Moore	$8,500	$10,100	$14,600	66	44	-29%	-13%	-6%	500	500	500	500	500
Bryson DeChambeau	$8,300	$10,000	$14,900	62	40	0%	12%	-15%	112	4	500	500	500
Kevin Na	$8,200	$8,900	$14,400	70	48	-44%	49%	-15%	39	4	500	89	500
Adam Hadwin	$8,100	$11,000	$15,100	41	31	53%	-33%	11%	22	30	87	500	500
Jim Furyk	$8,000	$9,100	$14,100	197	59	-61%	12%	-7%	75	500	1	7	42
Zach Johnson	$7,900	$10,300	$14,300	57	45	-5%	-67%	5%	500	33	120	61	48
Kevin Chappell	$7,900	$10,300	$14,500	40	44	0%	-58%	0%	500	9	500	79	98
Russell Knox	$7,800	$9,000	$14,200	108	52	-19%	34%	0%	11	2	18	9	500
Jason Dufner	$7,800	$10,200	$13,800	52	67	-62%	-143%	-6%	11	54	37	500	35
Charley Hoffman	$7,700	$9,900	$14,700	26	38	43%	28%	19%	112	14	64	38	6
Xander Schauffele	$7,700	$9,700	$14,300	27	50	-4%	-9%	-14%	500	500	500	500	500
Luke Donald	$7,700	$8,800	$14,300	196	48	4%	55%	-5%	2	2	15	2	3
William McGirt	$7,600	$9,000	$13,600	125	65	-23%	16%	9%	3	9	31	9	88
Matthew Fitzpatrick	$7,600	$9,300	$13,900	37	65	-23%	-14%	-3%	107	83	500	23	500
James Hahn	$7,500	$9,000	$13,100	63	82	-43%	-5%	2%	98	83	60	68	35
Byeong-Hun An	$7,500	$9,400	$14,000	83	55	4%	-4%	7%	500	500	500	500	500
Francesco Molinari	$7,500	$10,200	$14,600	29	45	25%	-50%	-24%	22	45	500	500	500
Grayson Murray	$7,500	$9,000	$13,200	106	85	-50%	-11%	-11%	59	500	500	500	500
Ollie Schniederjans	$7,400	$9,200	$14,300	81	40	53%	48%	29%	3	500	500	500	500
Jason Kokrak	$7,400	$9,100	$13,700	115	69	-9%	-6%	-3%	87	6	18	12	71
Brandt Snedeker	$7,400	$10,700	$14,100	78	60	6%	-329%	-11%	11	99	26	74	59
Graeme McDowell	$7,400	$8,900	$13,500	218	78	-13%	20%	0%	29	99	26	23	1
Si Woo Kim	$7,400	$8,600	$12,700	51	92	-41%	18%	4%	500	14	500	500	500
Dylan Frittelli	$7,400	$8,800	$12,600	50	105	-69%	-10%	-4%	500	500	500	500	500
Martin Kaymer	$7,400	$9,100	$12,700	90	101	-50%	-45%	-2%	32	500	500	23	66
Chesson Hadley	$7,300	$9,100	$12,800	74	100	-21%	-42%	-4%	500	83	118	38	500
Scott Piercy	$7,300	$9,400	$13,200	131	84	-5%	-58%	-8%	500	500	500	500	500
Charles Howell	$7,300	$10,500	$14,200	58	53	33%	-189%	-4%	56	23	120	53	98
Patton Kizzire	$7,300	$9,000	$13,200	54	80	3%	0%	0%	32	14	500	500	500
J.J. Spaun	$7,300	$7,900	$11,900	143	158	-72%	13%	-2%	6	500	500	500	500
Kevin Streelman	$7,300	$8,500	$12,700	132	91	-13%	24%	6%	500	500	55	53	3
Bud Cauley	$7,300	$8,900	$14,000	118	56	28%	38%	3%	9	500	500	500	116
Beau Hossler	$7,300	$9,000	$13,800	87	64	21%	18%	3%	500	500	500	500	500
Sean O’Hair	$7,300	$8,900	$12,500	112	119	-54%	-33%	-5%	500	119	6	500	132
Charl Schwartzel	$7,300	$9,200	$13,500	61	80	0%	-34%	-8%	500	500	55	12	500
Scott Stallings	$7,200	$8,800	$11,500	135	174	-55%	-55%	7%	500	500	500	500	92
Ben Martin	$7,200	$8,400	$11,800	221	167	-43%	-17%	-4%	112	45	37	3	500
John Huh	$7,200	$8,500	$12,400	210	109	-16%	2%	3%	75	500	120	3	500
Austin Cook	$7,200	$9,200	$12,900	110	79	24%	-28%	14%	500	500	500	500	500
Bill Haas	$7,200	$9,700	$12,700	77	105	-12%	-150%	-17%	122	14	31	500	24
Ryan Armour	$7,200	$8,000	$11,700	160	168	-49%	3%	3%	500	500	500	500	500
Nick Watney	$7,200	$8,700	$12,000	308	144	-31%	-23%	2%	500	500	500	500	500
Wesley Bryan	$7,200	$8,300	$12,200	95	133	-24%	6%	0%	1	500	500	500	500
Hudson Swafford	$7,200	$8,400	$11,600	124	194	-67%	-37%	-4%	500	114	44	500	500
Billy Horschel	$7,200	$8,100	$11,500	91	174	-55%	-4%	7%	127	54	51	68	9
Brian Gay	$7,100	$8,200	$12,600	142	102	14%	26%	2%	6	117	500	68	55
Chris Kirk	$7,100	$8,700	$13,000	153	91	27%	17%	-2%	75	23	69	27	30
Martin Laird	$7,100	$9,100	$12,800	101	98	22%	-39%	-2%	64	500	51	122	500
Brandon Harkins	$7,100	$8,300	$12,100	203	142	-7%	3%	0%	500	500	500	500	500
Ryan Palmer	$7,100	$9,000	$12,700	109	103	12%	-37%	-11%	11	71	500	500	64
Michael Kim	$7,100	$7,100	$10,800	375	269	-69%	8%	2%	98	76	500	500	500
Ross Fisher	$7,100	$9,200	$12,900	38	101	17%	-69%	-14%	500	500	500	500	132
Martin Flores	$7,100	$7,500	$11,100	271	264	-66%	-14%	-3%	500	500	31	500	500
Anirban Lahiri	$7,100	$8,600	$12,100	86	146	-10%	-18%	-3%	44	500	44	500	500
Rod Pampling	$7,100	$7,500	$10,800	317	287	-73%	-19%	0%	26	500	500	500	500
Stewart Cink	$7,000	$8,700	$11,800	139	155	4%	-27%	1%	87	83	31	61	24
Harris English	$7,000	$8,300	$12,500	202	107	19%	14%	2%	122	500	500	31	92
Brice Garnett	$7,000	$8,200	$12,600	123	112	16%	16%	-12%	500	500	11	53	500
Rory Sabbatini	$7,000	$8,400	$12,600	190	101	29%	18%	6%	500	106	77	9	9
Sam Saunders	$7,000	$7,800	$11,700	200	170	-9%	6%	0%	11	99	77	500	500
Derek Fathauer	$7,000	$7,200	$10,700	269	288	-49%	-1%	1%	32	71	101	500	500
Ryan Blaum	$7,000	$7,500	$10,900	318	286	-46%	-17%	-1%	64	500	500	500	500
Sung Kang	$7,000	$7,500	$11,600	102	190	-17%	6%	-3%	11	106	500	500	500
Matt Every	$7,000	$7,500	$11,800	551	160	1%	21%	-1%	500	500	18	12	83
John Senden	$7,000	$7,300	$10,700	761	305	-54%	-8%	-2%	75	23	500	500	500
Danny Lee	$7,000	$7,200	$11,400	169	227	-28%	14%	-5%	39	99	60	89	500
Robert Garrigus	$6,900	$7,900	$11,800	211	180	3%	-1%	-16%	75	500	126	73	24
Tyrone Van Aswegen	$6,900	$8,200	$11,400	296	224	-8%	-25%	-2%	56	59	500	116	500
Michael Thompson	$6,900	$7,900	$11,800	285	160	15%	12%	-1%	87	500	101	500	98
Kelly Kraft	$6,900	$8,200	$12,300	157	117	26%	14%	2%	122	500	500	500	500
Kevin Tway	$6,900	$7,700	$11,800	222	169	8%	10%	-10%	500	500	500	108	500
Brian Stuard	$6,900	$7,700	$11,000	224	244	-18%	-15%	3%	56	500	55	5	92
Davis Love	$6,900	$7,200	$10,400	751	398	-44%	-13%	-1%	500	500	500	500	500
Nick Taylor	$6,900	$7,100	$11,100	216	258	-21%	11%	-2%	22	76	74	500	500
Chad Campbell	$6,900	$7,800	$11,400	261	215	-6%	-6%	-1%	32	23	87	500	116
Fabian Gomez	$6,900	$7,200	$10,500	585	388	-43%	-12%	-3%	44	45	500	500	500
Doc Redman	$6,900	$7,500	$10,600		310	-34%	-24%	1%	500	500	500	500	500
Vaughn Taylor	$6,800	$8,300	$11,800	252	167	22%	-9%	-6%	64	64	500	103	500
Aaron Baddeley	$6,800	$8,000	$11,800	223	168	21%	4%	-7%	98	9	66	79	42
Corey Conners	$6,800	$8,400	$12,200	474	140	32%	-3%	-2%	500	500	118	500	500
Lucas Glover	$6,800	$8,400	$12,600	93	104	42%	12%	-2%	32	33	18	89	123
Dominic Bozzelli	$6,800	$8,100	$11,400	238	231	1%	-23%	-7%	122	500	500	500	500
Bob Estes	$6,800	$7,000	$10,200	1187	462	-32%	-6%	0%	500	500	500	500	30
Richy Werenski	$6,800	$7,200	$10,200	356	453	-31%	-17%	1%	500	500	500	500	500
Jonas Blixt	$6,800		$10,700	273	310	-18%		-3%	44	500	87	500	78
Billy Hurley	$6,800	$7,000	$10,300	344	438	-30%	-4%	-2%	22	500	101	31	500
Jon Curran	$6,800	$7,000	$10,100	685	648	-41%	-13%	-2%	500	117	500	500	500
Philip Knowles	$6,800	$7,000	$10,100		661	-42%	-14%	-3%	500	500	500	500	500
Andrew Landry	$6,700		$11,000	120	265	3%		-2%	500	500	500	500	500
Cheng-Tsung Pan	$6,700	$7,400	$11,700	184	189	22%	16%	-7%	44	500	500	500	500
Blayne Barber	$6,700	$7,400	$11,400	376	226	15%	8%	-4%	26	83	500	500	500
David Hearn	$6,700	$7,500	$10,500	389	348	-10%	-30%	-1%	59	96	77	79	87
David Lingmerth	$6,700	$7,600	$11,600	181	181	23%	6%	0%	87	33	500	500	135
Whee Kim	$6,700	$7,000	$10,600	147	333	-7%	4%	-1%	112	6	500	500	500
Jeff Maggert	$6,700		$10,400		584	-22%		-9%	500	83	120	64	66
Greg Chalmers	$6,700	$7,000	$10,900	475	295	-2%	8%	-4%	98	500	500	500	500
Harold Varner	$6,700	$7,300	$11,200	187	249	6%	2%	-4%	59	68	500	500	500
Geoff Ogilvy	$6,700	$7,000	$10,300	371	336	-8%	3%	5%	122	54	500	27	500
Jonathan Byrd	$6,600	$7,200	$10,500	297	352	-1%	-11%	-2%	500	500	101	31	66
Scott Brown	$6,600	$7,500	$11,000	149	246	15%	-10%	2%	87	64	37	5	64
Mac Hughes	$6,600	$7,400	$10,300	189	421	-4%	-23%	-1%	500	500	500	500	500
J.J. Henry	$6,600	$7,000	$10,200	509	503	-9%	-8%	-2%	107	127	500	500	500
K.J. Choi	$6,600	$7,300	$11,300	581	238	19%	7%	-1%	64	99	115	31	18
Steve Marino	$6,600	$7,100	$11,400	658	208	25%	23%	0%	70	114	500	31	92
Camilo Villegas	$6,600	$7,000	$10,600	433	338	1%	2%	-3%	75	71	500	27	9
Colt Knost	$6,600	$7,000	$10,700	945	297	6%	7%	-1%	500	14	500	500	116
Satoshi Kodaira	$6,600	$8,600	$11,700	46	194	27%	-49%	-9%	500	500	500	500	500
Carl Pettersson	$6,600	$7,000	$10,100		600	-13%	-12%	-1%	75	81	26	89	35
Tom Hoge	$6,500	$7,600	$11,300	182	230	27%	-6%	1%	500	500	500	500	500
Chris Couch	$6,500	$7,100	$10,100		683	-7%	-19%	-4%	500	500	500	500	500
Peter Malnati	$6,500	$7,200	$10,200	647	503	0%	-20%	-2%	44	83	500	500	500
Chris Stroud	$6,500	$7,500	$11,200	173	239	25%	-7%	0%	500	80	69	48	6
Ted Potter	$6,500	$7,300	$11,200	80	239	25%	6%	0%	500	500	500	18	35
Robert Streb	$6,500	$7,000	$10,200	211	467	1%	-7%	-1%	98	99	44	500	132
Cody Gribble	$6,500	$7,000	$10,300	370	405	5%	-3%	0%	500	500	500	500	500
D.A. Points	$6,500	$7,000	$10,100	341	592	-2%	-11%	0%	75	500	101	500	500
Dru Love	$6,500	$7,000	$10,100		626	-4%	-12%	-2%	500	500	500	500	500
Glen Day	$6,500	$7,000	$10,000		1088	-7%	-16%	0%	500	500	77	103	83
Steve Scott	$6,500	$7,000	$10,000		1113	-8%	-17%	-1%	500	500	500	500	500

Color Coding
Course history in BLUE indicates a top ten finish.
Course history in GREEN indicates a top 25 finish.
Course history in YELLOW indicates a made cut with a finish outside of the top 25.
Course history in RED indicates a missed cut.

Legend