PGA First Look: RBC Heritage

The PGA First Look is complete with a course preview, odds, salaries, Official World Golf Rankings, and course history.

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Event Preview

What a weekend! If you have been following my golf content over the last year and a half, you are probably hearing about Tiger Woods. I’m on record saying my only true bias in DFS is that I can’t fade Tiger. It finally paid off in a big way, as I had a great week in DFS and had him as an outright bet. While having a profitable week was nice, I will never forget that magical Sunday. Tiger was my childhood hero and I got to watch one of the greatest comebacks in the history of sports with my three-year old son. The whole day was amazing and I can talk about the golf for hours, but when he came off the 18th green and hugged his son, all the feels came rushing in. Let me put it this way, it was extremely dusty in my house on Sunday. Whether you are a fan of Tiger or not, you have to admit that he’s great for golf. He doesn’t move the needle, he is the needle.

The PGA Tour now heads to Hilton Head Island in South Carolina for the RBC Heritage. The difference between Augusta National and Harbour Town Golf Links is night and day. We go from a long Par 72 that features wide fairways to a short Par 71 that requires precision off the tee. Harbour Town measures 7,099 yards and features three score-able par fives. We have a surprisingly deep field this week with seven of the top 20 golfers in the world set to tee it up. While it’s not impossible, golfers in contention at The Masters have had trouble contending the very next week. In fact, on average, golfers that missed the cut at Augusta have finished higher at Harbour Town than golfers that were in contention. I’m not saying to completely fade the top of the board, but it’s something to think about this week.

Harbour Town is a Pete Dye design that places an emphasis on position off the tee and accuracy with your irons. You not only have to hit these fairways, but have to hit the right side of them to give yourself a good angle of attack into these tricky pin positions. If we look at past data from the course, many choose to club down off the tee. Driving distance here is 16 yards shorter than tour average, while driving accuracy is 2% higher. These greens are extremely tough to hit (6% lower than tour average), which places a big emphasis on a golfer’s short game. Distance is basically irrelevant here and if you don’t believe me, look at the golfers that have won here over the last five years.

In terms of approach shots, the two most common buckets are from 150-175 yards and 175-200 yards. If looking at proximity, these would be the two ranges I would focus on. The greens themselves feature Bermudagrass if you are looking at putting splits by grass type. In terms of the type of golfer that I’m targeting, I’m placing a heavy emphasis on approach play, around the green play, and putting. Golfers will have to keep their head above water on these difficult par fours and take advantage of the easy par fives. Being able to avoid bogeys is also important, as 10 of the holes feature water hazards. And finally, a good track record on Pete Dye courses is a huge plus this week.

Cut Rule: Top 70 and ties move on after the first two rounds. The MDF rule is in effect if more than 78 golfers make the initial cut.

Recent Winners of this Event: Satoshi Kodaira (2018), Wesley Bryan (2017), Branden Grace (2016), Jim Furyk (2015), Matt Kuchar (2014)

Key Statistics (In Order of Importance)

1) Strokes Gained Approach
2) Bogey Avoidance
3) Par 4 Scoring
4) Strokes Gained Around the Green
5) Strokes Gained Putting (Emphasis on Bermuda)

Sports Betting Card

It was a great week overall thanks to my main man Tiger Woods. I had plenty of exposure to him in DraftKings and had him as an outright bet at 14/1. We also hit Patrick Cantlay for a top 10 finish and nearly hit Ian Poulter for the same bet (T12). Overall, we bet nine units at The Masters and brought back 19 units to bring our season total to +18 units. Let’s keep it going at the RBC Heritage.

YTD: 4 wins, +18 units

Outright Bets

Jordan Spieth 25/1
Jim Furyk 33/1
Byeong-Hun An 40/1
Jason Kokrak 45/1
Lucas Glover 50/1

Top 20 Bets

Scott Stallings 5/1
Michael Thompson 6/1
D.J. Trahan 9/1

Salaries, Odds, and Course History (2014-2018)

Golfer DK Salary FD Salary FDRFT Sal OWGR Odds DK % FD % FDRFT % Cuts 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014
Dustin Johnson $11,600 $12,400 $18,600 1 7 0% 0% 0% 1/1 16 500 500 500 500
Francesco Molinari $11,300 $11,800 $17,100 7 14 0% 0% 0% 3/3 49 22 45 500 500
Xander Schauffele $10,900 $11,600 $16,400 9 17 -33% 0% -33% 1/1 32 500 500 500 500
Bryson DeChambeau $10,400 $11,700 $16,400 8 17 25% 0% 0% 2/3 3 112 4 500 500
Matt Kuchar $10,000 $11,500 $16,100 16 21 -40% -40% -40% 5/5 23 11 9 5 1
Patrick Cantlay $9,700 $10,900 $16,100 18 19 17% 29% 0% 2/2 7 3 500 500 500
Jordan Spieth $9,500 $10,600 $16,000 34 21 14% 40% 14% 2/2 500 500 500 11 12
Jim Furyk $9,400 $10,300 $15,600 51 31 -38% 8% 0% 3/4 70 75 500 1 7
Webb Simpson $9,300 $10,800 $15,800 20 25 0% -13% 0% 4/4 5 11 66 51 500
Tommy Fleetwood $9,200 $11,300 $15,900 15 22 20% -33% 0% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Kevin Kisner $9,100 $10,400 $15,700 25 29 9% 9% 0% 5/5 7 11 69 2 38
Si Woo Kim $9,000 $10,100 $15,200 52 37 -17% 0% -8% 2/2 2 500 14 500 500
Billy Horschel $8,900 $9,900 $14,500 42 52 -92% -39% -19% 4/5 5 127 54 51 68
Jason Kokrak $8,800 $9,600 $15,100 66 41 -7% 38% 0% 3/5 90 87 6 18 12
Charles Howell $8,700 $10,100 $14,800 46 45 -20% -29% -6% 4/5 55 56 23 120 53
Ian Poulter $8,600 $10,200 $15,500 30 33 25% 8% 0% 4/4 7 11 54 18 500
Matthew Fitzpatrick $8,500 $10,000 $15,200 35 34 24% 19% 0% 2/4 14 107 83 500 23
Sungjae Im $8,400 $10,000 $14,800 58 43 6% -6% 0% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Branden Grace $8,300 $9,900 $14,800 45 46 0% -6% -12% 3/3 500 11 1 7 500
Byeong-Hun An $8,200 $9,800 $14,900 55 42 20% 20% 0% 1/1 7 500 500 500 500
Ryan Moore $8,100 $9,200 $14,600 72 47 -5% 35% -10% 1/1 16 500 500 500 500
Marc Leishman $8,000 $10,700 $14,500 22 46 9% -122% 5% 2/4 78 44 30 500 89
Cameron Smith $7,900 $9,700 $14,400 29 51 0% -5% 4% 3/3 32 29 500 15 500
Justin Harding $7,900 $9,400 $13,400 44 74 -39% -14% 9% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Lucas Glover $7,800 $9,600 $14,500 78 47 16% 13% 0% 4/5 32 32 33 18 89
Charley Hoffman $7,800 $9,700 $14,300 64 57 -12% -27% 0% 4/5 23 112 14 64 38
Russell Knox $7,700 $9,500 $14,400 65 54 0% -4% -13% 5/5 40 11 2 18 9
Luke List $7,700 $9,000 $13,600 70 77 -30% 8% -9% 2/3 3 75 39 500 500
Rafael Cabrera-Bello $7,600 $9,800 $13,700 31 66 -3% -50% 0% 0/1 500 98 500 500 500
Abraham Ancer $7,600 $9,300 $13,700 60 72 -7% 0% -3% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Aaron Baddeley $7,600 $9,100 $13,400 184 82 -31% -6% -9% 3/5 55 98 9 66 79
Graeme McDowell $7,500 $9,400 $14,400 112 52 25% 14% 0% 4/5 55 29 99 26 23
Zach Johnson $7,500 $9,100 $13,400 89 81 -16% -3% -6% 3/4 42 500 33 120 61
Brandt Snedeker $7,500 $9,500 $14,300 49 57 9% -12% -4% 4/5 23 11 99 26 74
Emiliano Grillo $7,400 $9,400 $13,500 59 75 6% -18% 3% 1/1 16 500 500 500 500
Daniel Berger $7,400 $8,900 $12,900 81 100 -31% -15% -5% 1/1 500 500 500 72 500
Adam Hadwin $7,400 $9,300 $13,000 73 98 -26% -42% -2% 2/3 500 22 30 87 500
Ollie Schniederjans $7,400 $8,800 $13,400 214 84 -11% 11% -11% 2/2 42 3 500 500 500
Keith Mitchell $7,300 $9,200 $13,400 57 77 8% -6% -3% 1/1 55 500 500 500 500
Matt Wallace $7,300 $8,900 $13,600 36 76 13% 15% -6% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Corey Conners $7,300 $9,300 $13,200 83 85 -3% -29% 2% 0/2 102 500 500 118 500
Bud Cauley $7,300 $8,800 $12,800 191 101 -21% -7% 2% 2/2 23 9 500 500 500
Russell Henley $7,300 $8,800 $12,900 125 101 -23% -9% -9% 2/4 500 26 23 77 125
Eddie Pepperell $7,200 $8,600 $13,200 39 91 5% 18% -2% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Andrew Putnam $7,200 $8,600 $12,300 56 132 -45% -25% -10% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Kevin Streelman $7,200 $8,500 $12,900 170 94 2% 20% 2% 3/3 7 500 500 55 53
Luke Donald $7,200 $9,000 $14,400 595 53 41% 32% -8% 4/5 78 2 2 15 2
Beau Hossler $7,200 $8,700 $12,800 100 104 -11% -4% -2% 1/1 16 500 500 500 500
Adam Schenk $7,100 $7,900 $12,200 262 127 -27% 27% 3% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Chesson Hadley $7,100 $8,500 $12,300 86 128 -29% -17% -9% 2/4 7 500 83 118 38
Danny Lee $7,100 $8,000 $12,200 103 137 -41% 10% -8% 3/5 55 39 99 60 89
Jonas Blixt $7,100 $7,900 $11,900 290 160 -69% 2% 0% 2/3 14 44 500 87 500
Trey Mullinax $7,100 $8,600 $11,600 243 183 -86% -78% 0% 1/1 500 70 500 500 500
Charl Schwartzel $7,100 $8,400 $12,200 105 133 -35% -10% -3% 2/3 110 500 500 55 12
Ryan Palmer $7,000 $8,700 $12,600 74 113 4% -13% -6% 3/3 76 11 71 500 500
Martin Kaymer $7,000 $8,100 $12,000 185 143 -38% -7% 1% 3/3 73 32 500 500 23
J.J. Spaun $7,000 $7,900 $11,700 146 175 -58% -2% 2% 1/2 78 6 500 500 500
Kelly Kraft $7,000 $8,000 $11,300 176 218 -80% -29% 0% 0/2 78 122 500 500 500
Alexander Noren $7,000 $8,700 $12,600 32 106 9% -6% 0% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Martin Laird $7,000 $7,900 $12,100 261 138 -29% 16% 1% 3/4 32 64 500 51 122
Brian Harman $7,000 $8,500 $12,600 84 113 2% 0% -8% 4/5 23 9 106 44 7
Nick Taylor $6,900 $7,900 $12,200 242 126 3% 29% 6% 3/4 110 22 76 74 500
Kevin Na $6,900 $8,900 $12,900 54 99 27% -13% -2% 2/4 78 39 4 500 89
C.T. Pan $6,900 $8,100 $12,200 113 140 -16% -1% -13% 2/2 23 44 500 500 500
Joel Dahmen $6,900 $8,400 $12,300 136 126 3% 0% -3% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Mac Hughes $6,900 $7,800 $12,000 251 142 -19% 19% 4% 0/1 90 500 500 500 500
Andrew Landry $6,900 $8,500 $12,300 123 120 10% -4% 3% 1/1 42 500 500 500 500
Bill Haas $6,900 $8,000 $12,400 276 124 6% 25% -4% 3/4 7 122 14 31 500
Scott Stallings $6,800 $8,200 $12,500 124 121 17% 16% -6% 1/1 55 500 500 500 500
Chez Reavie $6,800 $8,900 $12,200 61 142 -9% -88% -17% 1/3 500 112 33 126 500
Chris Kirk $6,800 $8,300 $12,000 179 150 -16% -25% -4% 4/5 55 75 23 69 27
Nick Watney $6,800 $8,400 $11,800 174 162 -22% -40% 2% 1/1 32 500 500 500 500
Jonathan Byrd $6,800 $8,500 $11,700 372 182 -30% -67% -1% 2/3 50 500 500 101 31
JT Poston $6,800 $8,300 $12,200 206 138 -1% -9% -9% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Brice Garnett $6,800 $7,800 $11,500 148 208 -38% -4% -1% 3/3 42 500 500 11 53
Brian Stuard $6,700 $8,400 $12,300 175 133 13% -10% -14% 4/4 67 56 500 55 5
Scott Piercy $6,700 $8,300 $12,300 107 118 28% 14% 5% 1/1 16 500 500 500 500
Patton Kizzire $6,700 $8,500 $13,300 90 91 46% 24% -3% 2/3 78 32 14 500 500
Sam Ryder $6,700 $8,000 $11,400 164 226 -33% -31% -5% 0/1 117 500 500 500 500
Sam Burns $6,700 $8,300 $12,100 110 147 -4% -23% -10% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Brian Gay $6,700 $8,100 $11,900 129 176 -16% -24% -6% 3/4 70 6 117 500 68
Peter Uihlein $6,700 $7,700 $11,500 126 203 -24% 3% 0% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Peter Malnati $6,600 $10,700 277 216 -17% 13% 2/3 67 44 83 500 500
Wyndham Clark $6,600 $8,200 $12,100 229 145 6% -15% -8% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Austin Cook $6,600 $7,800 $12,400 133 124 29% 35% -5% 1/1 50 500 500 500 500
Ryan Armour $6,600 $7,800 $11,800 101 167 -2% 7% 1% 1/1 55 500 500 500 500
Danny Willett $6,600 $8,000 $12,000 79 143 7% 0% 0% 0/1 500 128 500 500 500
Hudson Swafford $6,600 $7,600 $10,900 259 280 -35% -11% -5% 1/3 102 500 114 44 500
Whee Kim $6,600 $7,100 $10,600 194 353 -43% -2% -3% 2/3 50 112 6 500 500
John Augenstein $6,600 $7,000 $10,300 492 -53% -7% -1% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Michael Thompson $6,500 $8,200 $12,200 119 133 27% 3% -3% 1/3 42 87 500 101 500
Cameron Champ $6,500 $8,700 $12,100 90 132 30% -36% 11% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Sam Saunders $6,500 $7,300 $11,100 274 258 -18% 4% -2% 1/4 90 11 99 77 500
Shane Lowry $6,500 $8,100 $12,600 50 107 44% 28% -2% 1/1 500 44 500 500 500
Jason Dufner $6,500 $7,600 $11,300 205 225 -10% 1% -1% 3/4 78 11 54 37 500
D.A. Points $6,500 $7,100 $10,200 736 593 -44% -12% 0% 0/3 102 75 500 101 500
Colt Knost $6,500 $10,400 458 -37% -4% 1/2 102 500 14 500 500
Vaughn Taylor $6,400 $8,000 $11,800 210 176 10% -14% -2% 2/4 125 64 64 500 103
Rory Sabbatini $6,400 $8,100 $12,100 213 141 26% -3% -1% 2/4 23 500 106 77 9
Denny McCarthy $6,400 $12,500 165 112 47% 4% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Stewart Cink $6,400 $8,100 $11,300 98 226 -3% -42% -2% 3/5 42 87 83 31 61
Ted Potter $6,400 $7,300 $10,900 143 261 -10% 3% -1% 2/2 16 500 500 500 18
Satoshi Kodaira $6,400 $7,500 $12,000 68 150 18% 24% -4% 1/1 1 500 500 500 500
Alex Cejka $6,400 $7,000 $10,400 413 363 -23% -2% -1% 2/2 500 44 500 31 500
Morgan Hoffmann $6,400 $7,000 $10,900 973 279 -13% 7% -4% 2/3 500 112 23 9 500
D.J. Trahan $6,300 $7,700 $11,400 491 213 9% 1% 0% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Harold Varner $6,300 $7,900 $12,000 158 151 23% 4% -6% 2/3 90 59 68 500 500
Ernie Els $6,300 $7,800 $11,600 308 195 13% -1% -1% 2/4 500 98 14 87 64
Richy Werenski $6,300 $7,500 $10,900 193 262 -3% -4% -2% 0/1 102 500 500 500 500
Brandon Harkins $6,300 $7,200 $10,400 293 358 -13% -5% 0% 0/1 110 500 500 500 500
Martin Trainer $6,300 $7,500 $10,700 127 350 -11% -12% -5% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Ray Franz $6,300 $7,000 $10,200 709 -25% -11% -1% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Chris Stroud $6,200 $7,700 $11,600 182 200 18% 4% -2% 3/4 90 500 80 69 48
Troy Merritt $6,200 $7,400 $11,400 204 216 14% 10% -1% 1/2 500 107 500 3 500
Scott Brown $6,200 $7,700 $11,900 221 169 24% 11% -4% 3/5 90 87 64 37 5
Tom Hoge $6,200 $7,200 $10,600 301 316 -2% -1% 0% 1/1 55 500 500 500 500
Tyler Duncan $6,200 $7,000 $10,400 464 395 -8% -3% -2% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Jim Herman $6,200 $7,000 $10,300 942 518 -14% -8% -2% 1/2 500 129 51 500 500
Roger Sloan $6,100 $7,800 $11,000 264 246 11% -16% 0% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Ryan Blaum $6,100 $8,000 $10,900 283 268 8% -43% -3% 1/2 90 64 500 500 500
Benjamin Silverman $6,100 $7,400 $10,600 314 299 5% -5% 2% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Seamus Power $6,100 $7,200 $10,700 415 337 3% -2% -4% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Davis Love $6,100 $8,000 $10,500 465 345 2% -52% 2% 2/4 74 87 59 500 108
Boo Weekley $6,100 $7,300 $11,300 1112 242 12% 5% -6% 4/4 500 44 39 75 53
Mark Anderson $6,100 $7,000 $10,400 310 405 -3% -3% -3% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Adam Long $6,000 $7,400 $10,600 109 313 10% -6% 1% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Anirban Lahiri $6,000 $7,600 $11,300 200 238 17% -3% -5% 2/3 110 44 500 44 500
Harris English $6,000 $7,600 $11,200 327 230 18% -2% 1% 2/3 32 122 500 500 31
K.J. Choi $6,000 $7,000 $10,300 846 463 0% -6% 0% 3/5 55 64 99 115 31
Michael Kim $6,000 $7,000 $10,400 331 453 2% -4% -3% 2/3 77 98 76 500 500
Cody Gribble $6,000 $7,000 $10,300 789 511 -2% -8% -2% 0/1 118 500 500 500 500
Rod Pampling $6,000 $7,000 $10,300 988 568 -3% -9% -3% 2/2 32 26 500 500 500

Color Coding
Course history in BLUE indicates a top ten finish.
Course history in GREEN indicates a top 25 finish.
Course history in YELLOW indicates a made cut with a finish outside the top 25.
Course history in RED indicates a missed cut.

Legend

Term Description
Site % Odds The percentage differential between a golfer’s salary rank and odds rank. The higher the %, the better.
OWGR Official World Golf Ranking
Cuts Cut record of each golfer at this course in the last five seasons.
2013 – 2017 Columns Course history at this event in the last five seasons.

About the Author

  • Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

  • Derek Farnsworth, aka Notorious, is one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS, thanks in large part to the great advice he gives on a daily basis in RotoGrinders.com’s Grind Down for NBA and MLB as well as the First Look column that gives a preview of the day’s games from a DFS perspective. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Masters Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in multiple sports. Farnsworth provides expert analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis during the NBA season and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards.

    Interview after $100,000 Win

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