PGA First Look: Rocket Mortgage Classic
The PGA First Look is complete with a course preview, odds, salaries, Official World Golf Rankings, and course history.
If you’re looking for more in-depth golf betting tips, check out our breakdown of the course and the PGA odds for the 2019 Rocket Mortgage Classic.
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Event Preview
It was great seeing Chez Reavie get his first win in over 10 years at the Travelers Championship, although I was a little disappointed that I didn’t have him as an outright bet. He’s been a regular feature of my betting card over the last two years and I hopped off on the wrong week. I’m always a big fan of the event that Travelers puts on and it’s hard not to like the finish that TPC River Highlands provides. You can make eagles, birdies, or bogeys on the last six-hole stretch.
This week we head to Detroit for a new event on the PGA Tour schedule. The Rocket Mortgage Classic signed a four-year deal that should help bring more interest to the tour in the midwest. With this being a new course, there are a lot of unknowns that come into play. Rather than try to speculate about a course that is located in a city that I haven’t ever been to, I find the best approach is to trust the course superintendent, Jake Mendoza. If you are interested in a full course breakdown, here is an 18-minute video with the superintendent. If you were one of those kids that bought the Cliff Notes version of books in school, I’ll recap the main points below.
Detroit Golf Club is a Par 72 that measures 7,334 yards. It features four par fives, four par threes, and 10 par fours. Off the tee, golfers will see tree-lined fairways with strategically placed bunkers. The mounds around the bunkers will be penal, as golfers will be hitting a golf ball well below or above their feet. The rough could play a pivotal role in determining this week’s winner, as it will be 3.5 inches to start the tournament and they’ll let it grow from there. The fairways look flat from a distance, but they feature many small contours that will provide uneven lies on approaches and create strange bounces off the tee.
The greens are mostly made of poa annua grass, but will feature some bentgrass as well. In terms of grass type, they are very similar to what we saw last week. The greens are far from flat and according to Mendoza, they will run at 12-12.5 on the stimpmeter. Fast and hilly greens should test even the best putters in the field. I honestly didn’t know what a drainage swell was until watching the video, but they are featured throughout the course. Golfers will have a tough time hitting out of these if their ball ends up finding them. We shouldn’t see too many penalties this week, as the course only has one water hazard throughout the 18 holes.
The big question is how difficult the course will play. A 7,300 yard course feels long on paper, but it is a bit misleading. The four par fives all measure at least 550 yards and two of the par threes measure over 200 yards. While golfers will have to hit long irons on these holes, most of the par fours will create wedge opportunities. This is a complete guess on my part, but I’ll set the line for the winning score at 18-under par. In terms of the type of golfer that I’m looking for, I tend to lean on ball strikers when we are dealing with limited course information.
Best of luck this week!
Cut Rule: Top 70 and ties move on after the first two rounds. The MDF rule is in effect if more than 78 golfers make the initial cut.
Key Statistics (In Order of Importance)
1) Strokes Gained Approach
2) Birdie or Better %
3) Strokes Gained Off the Tee
4) Bogey Avoidance
5) Strokes Gained Putting (Emphasis on Poa)
Sports Betting Card
I had a great week of DFS at the Travelers Championship, but it was a big swing and a miss for the bets. We had 12 units in play and didn’t bring a single one back. The worst part was that we didn’t even have a sweat on Sunday. We’ll look to bounce back this week in Detroit. I really only see two options this week — hammer Dustin Johnson with a three-plus unit bet or take a shot on some dark horses. Both are viable, but I’ll chase the golfers with deeper odds given the unknowns about how the course will play.
YTD: 5 wins, -7 units
Outright Bets
Billy Horschel 30/1
Kevin Streelman 40/1
Rory Sabbatini 60/1
Top 5 Bets
Billy Horschel 6/1
Kevin Streelman 8/1
Rory Sabbatini 12/1
Top 20 Bets
Troy Merritt 4/1
Peter Malnati 5/1
Hank Lebioda 5/1
Cameron Tringale 5/1
Salaries & Odds (No Course History)
| Golfer | DK Salary | FD Salary | FDRFT Sal | OWGR | Odds | DK % | FD % | FDRFT % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dustin Johnson | $12,000 | $12,500 | $18,600 | 2 | 6 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Rickie Fowler | $11,200 | $11,700 | $17,400 | 14 | 11 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Gary Woodland | $10,900 | $11,200 | $16,900 | 12 | 13 | -33% | 0% | -33% |
| Hideki Matsuyama | $10,200 | $11,300 | $16,900 | 31 | 13 | 25% | 0% | 0% |
| Brandt Snedeker | $9,900 | $10,600 | $15,400 | 45 | 30 | -20% | 25% | 0% |
| Chez Reavie | $9,700 | $10,900 | $15,800 | 26 | 23 | 17% | 0% | 0% |
| Ryan Moore | $9,500 | $10,200 | $15,400 | 75 | 31 | -14% | 33% | -33% |
| Patrick Reed | $9,300 | $10,800 | $15,100 | 25 | 35 | -13% | -50% | 0% |
| Kevin Kisner | $9,100 | $10,500 | $15,100 | 27 | 35 | -11% | -11% | -11% |
| Billy Horschel | $9,000 | $10,400 | $15,300 | 41 | 30 | 30% | 30% | 13% |
| Joaquin Niemann | $8,900 | $9,800 | $14,600 | 97 | 44 | -27% | 13% | 0% |
| Sungjae Im | $8,800 | $10,300 | $14,700 | 66 | 43 | -8% | -18% | 0% |
| Bubba Watson | $8,700 | $10,700 | $14,800 | 22 | 42 | 8% | -71% | -9% |
| Kevin Streelman | $8,600 | $9,500 | $14,800 | 87 | 41 | 21% | 50% | 0% |
| Rory Sabbatini | $8,500 | $9,400 | $14,200 | 111 | 56 | -40% | 13% | -17% |
| Viktor Hovland | $8,400 | $10,000 | $14,600 | 340 | 46 | 6% | -7% | -7% |
| Jason Kokrak | $8,300 | $9,300 | $13,900 | 70 | 61 | -35% | 15% | 0% |
| Aaron Wise | $8,200 | $9,400 | $14,500 | 71 | 48 | 11% | 33% | 0% |
| Kevin Tway | $8,100 | $10,100 | $14,300 | 88 | 52 | 11% | -31% | 0% |
| Jason Dufner | $8,000 | $9,500 | $14,200 | 138 | 55 | 5% | 14% | -6% |
| Brian Harman | $8,000 | $9,100 | $14,200 | 91 | 55 | 5% | 39% | -6% |
| Byeong Hun An | $7,900 | $9,900 | $14,200 | 53 | 52 | 18% | -20% | 0% |
| Kyoung-Hoon Lee | $7,900 | $9,600 | $13,600 | 209 | 70 | -18% | -30% | 0% |
| Charles Howell | $7,800 | $9,800 | $14,000 | 55 | 59 | 8% | -38% | 0% |
| Charley Hoffman | $7,800 | $9,700 | $13,800 | 78 | 67 | 0% | -33% | 0% |
| Keith Mitchell | $7,800 | $9,000 | $13,400 | 62 | 73 | -13% | 18% | 4% |
| Jimmy Walker | $7,700 | $9,700 | $13,400 | 108 | 80 | -19% | -78% | -14% |
| Luke List | $7,700 | $9,300 | $13,400 | 67 | 80 | -15% | -15% | -11% |
| Kyle Stanley | $7,700 | $9,600 | $13,800 | 56 | 69 | 7% | -25% | -4% |
| Nick Watney | $7,600 | $9,400 | $13,500 | 142 | 78 | 3% | -21% | -7% |
| Sung Kang | $7,600 | $8,800 | $13,300 | 65 | 78 | 0% | 21% | 3% |
| Vaughn Taylor | $7,600 | $8,800 | $13,300 | 125 | 78 | 7% | 26% | 10% |
| Mac Hughes | $7,600 | $8,700 | $13,000 | 196 | 90 | -10% | 20% | 0% |
| Peter Malnati | $7,500 | $8,500 | $12,600 | 203 | 116 | -32% | 6% | -15% |
| Bud Cauley | $7,500 | $8,600 | $12,700 | 152 | 91 | -3% | 22% | 5% |
| Martin Laird | $7,500 | $9,200 | $13,000 | 247 | 90 | 0% | -17% | -3% |
| Matthew Wolff | $7,500 | $9,200 | $12,600 | 115 | -29% | -52% | -13% | |
| Harold Varner | $7,400 | $9,000 | $12,900 | 157 | 96 | 5% | -9% | -3% |
| J.J. Spaun | $7,400 | $8,900 | $12,900 | 150 | 99 | 0% | -6% | -9% |
| Russell Henley | $7,400 | $8,400 | $12,600 | 184 | 109 | -5% | 23% | -3% |
| Si Woo Kim | $7,400 | $8,700 | $12,700 | 61 | 97 | 3% | 10% | 0% |
| Cameron Smith | $7,400 | $8,800 | $12,600 | 40 | 106 | -3% | -3% | 0% |
| Corey Conners | $7,300 | $8,700 | $12,600 | 82 | 111 | 2% | -2% | -8% |
| Michael Thompson | $7,300 | $8,900 | $12,600 | 101 | 111 | 0% | -19% | -10% |
| Danny Lee | $7,300 | $8,600 | $12,600 | 113 | 110 | 5% | 9% | -5% |
| Max Homa | $7,300 | $8,500 | $12,300 | 98 | 131 | -21% | -8% | -6% |
| J.B. Holmes | $7,300 | $9,100 | $12,200 | 54 | 143 | -33% | -84% | -12% |
| Austin Cook | $7,200 | $8,300 | $12,400 | 155 | 116 | 6% | 20% | 6% |
| Chesson Hadley | $7,200 | $8,700 | $12,600 | 90 | 117 | 0% | -17% | -23% |
| Zack Sucher | $7,200 | $9,000 | $12,500 | 147 | 116 | 6% | -36% | 4% |
| Roberto Diaz | $7,200 | $8,400 | $12,100 | 414 | 145 | -23% | -13% | -7% |
| Beau Hossler | $7,200 | $8,500 | $12,200 | 116 | 134 | -10% | -10% | -4% |
| Brendan Steele | $7,200 | $8,500 | $12,300 | 191 | 130 | -6% | -6% | -4% |
| Dylan Frittelli | $7,100 | $8,300 | $12,100 | 118 | 146 | -11% | -7% | -9% |
| Sam Burns | $7,100 | $8,000 | $12,100 | 120 | 127 | 9% | 32% | 11% |
| Brian Stuard | $7,100 | $8,600 | $12,200 | 163 | 145 | -7% | -29% | -14% |
| Wyndham Clark | $7,100 | $7,900 | $11,900 | 233 | 154 | -24% | 13% | -6% |
| Peter Uihlein | $7,100 | $8,200 | $12,200 | 132 | 141 | -2% | 10% | -8% |
| Stephan Jaeger | $7,100 | $8,100 | $11,900 | 277 | 146 | -11% | 10% | 5% |
| Troy Merritt | $7,000 | $8,400 | $12,100 | 182 | 128 | 17% | 4% | 9% |
| Matt Jones | $7,000 | $8,200 | $11,900 | 190 | 157 | -13% | -11% | -8% |
| Sebastian Munoz | $7,000 | $8,200 | $12,000 | 220 | 148 | -5% | -3% | -5% |
| Alex Prugh | $7,000 | $8,100 | $12,000 | 367 | 146 | 0% | 10% | 0% |
| Cameron Tringale | $7,000 | $7,900 | $12,000 | 429 | 142 | 7% | 27% | 7% |
| Nick Taylor | $7,000 | $8,300 | $11,800 | 236 | 152 | -8% | -16% | 2% |
| Hank Lebioda | $6,900 | $8,000 | $11,800 | 365 | 164 | -8% | 1% | -8% |
| Sepp Straka | $6,900 | $8,300 | $11,600 | 316 | 180 | -20% | -41% | 0% |
| Trey Mullinax | $6,900 | $8,100 | $11,700 | 237 | 167 | -14% | -12% | -1% |
| Adam Long | $6,900 | $8,000 | $12,100 | 109 | 139 | 18% | 25% | 2% |
| JT Poston | $6,900 | $8,200 | $11,800 | 170 | 152 | 2% | -7% | 2% |
| Ryan Armour | $6,900 | $8,000 | $11,800 | 130 | 159 | -6% | 3% | -6% |
| Jonas Blixt | $6,800 | $7,800 | $11,800 | 211 | 148 | 13% | 22% | 5% |
| Harris English | $6,800 | $8,100 | $11,800 | 298 | 166 | -1% | -9% | -11% |
| Andrew Landry | $6,800 | $8,200 | $11,800 | 153 | 164 | 1% | -16% | -8% |
| Cameron Champ | $6,800 | $8,100 | $11,800 | 128 | 157 | 6% | -1% | -3% |
| Ryan Blaum | $6,800 | $7,700 | $11,600 | 320 | 179 | -8% | 7% | 1% |
| Ollie Schniederjans | $6,800 | $7,900 | $11,700 | 265 | 190 | -14% | -6% | -11% |
| Robert Streb | $6,800 | $8,400 | $11,700 | 265 | 166 | -1% | -40% | 1% |
| Scott Brown | $6,700 | $7,800 | $11,700 | 246 | 170 | 4% | 6% | -3% |
| Scott Stallings | $6,700 | $8,300 | $11,600 | 149 | 186 | -1% | -43% | -1% |
| Bronson Burgoon | $6,700 | $7,600 | $11,000 | 205 | 243 | -16% | -6% | 0% |
| Brian Gay | $6,700 | $7,800 | $11,600 | 144 | 186 | -1% | 1% | -1% |
| Luke Donald | $6,700 | $7,900 | $11,400 | 490 | 234 | -14% | -17% | -7% |
| Roberto Castro | $6,700 | $7,100 | $11,200 | 332 | 232 | -11% | 16% | 1% |
| Cody Gribble | $6,700 | $7,500 | $10,900 | 633 | 275 | -25% | -10% | 0% |
| Sam Ryder | $6,600 | $8,000 | $11,700 | 188 | 173 | 10% | -7% | -4% |
| Adam Schenk | $6,600 | $7,400 | $11,200 | 249 | 232 | -2% | 6% | 1% |
| Benjamin Silverman | $6,600 | $7,500 | $11,500 | 380 | 218 | -1% | 3% | -5% |
| Tyler Duncan | $6,600 | $7,700 | $11,400 | 389 | 207 | 3% | 1% | 1% |
| Sam Saunders | $6,600 | $7,400 | $10,600 | 343 | 350 | -34% | -22% | -6% |
| Seamus Power | $6,600 | $8,200 | $11,300 | 293 | 216 | 0% | -41% | 1% |
| Sang-Moon Bae | $6,600 | $7,500 | $11,000 | 338 | 263 | -12% | -7% | -4% |
| Scott Langley | $6,600 | $7,000 | $10,700 | 264 | 289 | -21% | 5% | 2% |
| Denny McCarthy | $6,500 | $7,600 | $11,300 | 166 | 215 | 10% | 2% | 2% |
| Cameron Davis | $6,500 | $7,000 | $10,900 | 208 | 264 | -3% | 11% | 2% |
| Jim Knous | $6,500 | $7,000 | $11,000 | 450 | 254 | 0% | 14% | -2% |
| Shawn Stefani | $6,500 | $7,200 | $11,100 | 307 | 239 | 3% | 11% | 0% |
| Kramer Hickok | $6,500 | $7,700 | $11,400 | 214 | 211 | 11% | 0% | 0% |
| Wes Roach | $6,500 | $7,300 | $10,600 | 421 | 311 | -16% | -11% | 0% |
| Chris Stroud | $6,500 | $7,400 | $10,700 | 213 | 302 | -15% | -15% | -2% |
| Fredrik Jacobson | $6,500 | $7,000 | $10,600 | 311 | -16% | 0% | 0% | |
| Josh Teater | $6,400 | $7,300 | $11,000 | 388 | 259 | 7% | 3% | -3% |
| Carlos Ortiz | $6,400 | $7,200 | $10,900 | 276 | 250 | 9% | 9% | 6% |
| Brandon Harkins | $6,400 | $7,200 | $10,900 | 368 | 264 | 5% | 5% | 2% |
| Tom Hoge | $6,400 | $7,300 | $10,800 | 350 | 275 | 3% | -1% | 5% |
| Fabian Gomez | $6,400 | $7,000 | $10,300 | 508 | 404 | -23% | -15% | -2% |
| Roger Sloan | $6,400 | $7,100 | $10,800 | 282 | 277 | 0% | 3% | 2% |
| Nicholas Lindheim | $6,400 | $7,000 | $10,600 | 441 | 332 | -11% | -4% | -4% |
| Curtis Luck | $6,400 | $7,000 | $11,000 | 490 | 291 | -3% | 4% | -14% |
| Anirban Lahiri | $6,400 | $7,500 | $11,000 | 267 | 279 | -1% | -14% | -12% |
| Stewart Cink | $6,300 | $7,600 | $10,900 | 119 | 300 | 4% | -23% | -8% |
| Adam Svensson | $6,300 | $7,000 | $10,600 | 495 | 314 | 0% | -2% | -2% |
| Hunter Mahan | $6,300 | $7,000 | $10,600 | 445 | 350 | -4% | -6% | -6% |
| Joey Garber | $6,300 | $7,000 | $10,600 | 419 | 325 | -1% | -3% | -3% |
| Patton Kizzire | $6,300 | $7,400 | $11,000 | 124 | 275 | 11% | -5% | -8% |
| Brady Schnell | $6,300 | $7,000 | $10,400 | 436 | 379 | -9% | -11% | -1% |
| Kelly Kraft | $6,300 | $7,000 | $10,500 | 199 | 357 | -5% | -7% | 1% |
| Satoshi Kodaira | $6,300 | $7,000 | $10,200 | 94 | 429 | -15% | -17% | 0% |
| Chip McDaniel | $6,300 | $10,000 | 703 | 450 | -19% | 11% | ||
| Richy Werenski | $6,200 | $7,300 | $10,600 | 238 | 332 | 6% | -15% | -4% |
| Brice Garnett | $6,200 | $7,000 | $10,700 | 194 | 293 | 12% | 3% | 0% |
| Ernie Els | $6,200 | $7,100 | $10,500 | 361 | 364 | 1% | -13% | -1% |
| Jose de Jesus Rodriguez | $6,200 | $7,000 | $10,600 | 435 | 357 | 3% | -7% | -7% |
| Seth Reeves | $6,200 | $7,000 | $10,200 | 577 | 461 | -12% | -23% | -5% |
| Anders Albertson | $6,200 | $7,000 | $10,200 | 330 | 504 | -13% | -25% | -6% |
| Martin Trainer | $6,200 | $7,000 | $10,200 | 175 | 454 | -11% | -22% | -4% |
| Kyle Jones | $6,200 | $7,000 | $10,200 | 477 | 443 | -8% | -19% | -2% |
| Justin Suh | $6,200 | $7,000 | $10,300 | 393 | -3% | -14% | -1% | |
| Will Claxton | $6,200 | $7,000 | $10,100 | 714 | -21% | -33% | -4% | |
| J.J. Henry | $6,100 | $7,000 | $10,300 | 668 | 407 | 3% | -16% | -2% |
| Billy Hurley | $6,100 | $7,000 | $10,200 | 1013 | 493 | -4% | -24% | -5% |
| Chase Wright | $6,100 | $7,000 | $10,200 | 379 | 571 | -8% | -29% | -10% |
| Alex Cejka | $6,100 | $7,000 | $10,300 | 520 | 371 | 8% | -10% | 2% |
| Colt Knost | $6,100 | $7,000 | $10,200 | 436 | 1% | -18% | -1% | |
| Chris Thompson | $6,100 | $7,000 | $10,200 | 433 | 443 | 0% | -19% | -2% |
| Ryan Vermeer | $6,100 | $7,000 | $10,100 | 771 | -15% | -38% | -7% | |
| Whee Kim | $6,100 | $7,000 | $10,200 | 256 | 504 | -5% | -25% | -6% |
| John Chin | $6,100 | $7,000 | $10,100 | 628 | 739 | -13% | -35% | -5% |
| Mike Weir | $6,100 | $7,000 | $10,100 | 750 | -14% | -36% | -6% | |
| Smylie Kaufman | $6,100 | $7,000 | $10,100 | 729 | -12% | -34% | -4% | |
| Julian Etulain | $6,000 | $7,100 | $10,300 | 371 | 411 | 10% | -21% | -3% |
| Chad Collins | $6,000 | $7,000 | $10,200 | 554 | 1% | -28% | -9% | |
| Ted Potter | $6,000 | $7,000 | $10,400 | 195 | 389 | 13% | -12% | -2% |
| Jim Herman | $6,000 | $7,000 | $10,100 | 1190 | 661 | -1% | -31% | -2% |
| Morgan Hoffmann | $6,000 | $7,000 | $10,400 | 1117 | 389 | 13% | -12% | -2% |
| Rod Pampling | $6,000 | $7,000 | $10,200 | 1012 | 550 | 2% | -27% | -8% |
| Will MacKenzie | $6,000 | $7,000 | $10,100 | 688 | -2% | -32% | -3% | |
| Michael Kim | $6,000 | $7,000 | $10,100 | 409 | 554 | 1% | -28% | 1% |
| Zachary Bauchou | $6,000 | $7,000 | $10,100 | 592 | -1% | -30% | -1% | |
| Matt Harmon | $6,000 | $10,000 | 1145 | 750 | -5% | 1% | ||
| Lee Houtteman | $6,000 | $7,000 | $10,000 | 1135 | -7% | -39% | -1% | |
| David Berganio | $6,000 | $7,000 | $10,000 | 1536 | -8% | -39% | -2% |
Color Coding
Course history in BLUE indicates a top ten finish.
Course history in GREEN indicates a top 25 finish.
Course history in YELLOW indicates a made cut with a finish outside the top 25.
Course history in RED indicates a missed cut.
Legend
| Term | Description |
|---|---|
| Site % Odds | The percentage differential between a golfer’s salary rank and odds rank. The higher the %, the better. |
| OWGR | Official World Golf Ranking |
| Cuts | Cut record of each golfer at this course in the last five seasons. |
| 2014 – 2018 Columns | Course history at this event in the last five seasons. |