PGA First Look: Safeway Open

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2018-10-01 22:35:34

The PGA First Look is complete with a course preview, odds, salaries, Official World Golf Rankings, and course history.

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Event Preview

After such a long offseason, I’m ready to get back to business. Kidding of course, as the PGA Tour has the shortest offseason of any major DFS sport. While it hasn’t been that long since my last PGA First Look, a lot has happened since then. Most recently, the USA got their arses kicked in the Ryder Cup on the other side of the pond. It’s usually one of my favorite golf weeks of the year, but it wasn’t even fun to watch (unless you placed a sizable wager on the Euro side). Luckily, the week before was incredible. Tiger Woods finally broke through with his first win of the season. The scene on 18 when he was walking up to the green was unlike anything I’ve seen in golf during my lifetime. Somehow, my brand has become associated with “pants off” anytime Tiger is playing well. In case you were wondering, it was a pants-free weekend at the Noto household when the Tour Championship was on.

We now head to Napa Valley for the Safeway Open. This time of year is always fun because we get to see a lot of new faces looking to make a name for themselves on tour. While we never really know how some of these up and comers are going to fare at the PGA Tour level, it’s a great time to put in a little extra research. If you are a premium member, I highly recommend reading the Web.com Class Preview written by Jason Rouslin (who is featured on the weekly Drive for Show, DFS for Dough premium show). He covers ten of his favorite golfers coming off of the Web.com Tour finals.

Silverado Resort has hosted the Safeway Open in each of the last four years. It was at a different course five years ago, so make sure to keep that in mind when looking at course history. Silverado (North Course) is a Par 72 that measures 7,166 yards. It is very short by PGA Tour standards and will yield plenty of birdies with four par fives to feast on. With that said, the fairways are narrow and tree-lined and the rough is difficult to hit out of. Add in some deep bunkers, shaved runoff areas around the greens, and undulating poa annua greens and the course becomes a tougher test than it appears on paper. The winning score the last four years has been -15, -18, -15, and -15.

If you look at how the top performers here have gained the most strokes on the field, two areas stand out in particular — approach shots and putting. There’s always a debate on whether we should be looking at putting splits by grass type, but I always include it in my model (which is available to premium members) when we are on poa annua greens. They are extremely bumpy compared to the other grass types and we see the same players putt well on them each and every year. As for the type of golfer that I will be targeting, I’m looking for a good ball striker that can score on the par fives and putt on poa.

Cut Rule: Top 70 and ties move on after the first two rounds. The MDF rule is in effect if more than 78 golfers make the initial cut.

Recent Winners of this Event: Brendan Steele (2017 & 2016), Emiliano Grillo (2015), Sang-Moon Bae (2014)

Key Statistics (In Order of Importance)

1) Strokes Gained Approach
2) Par 5 Scoring
3) Birdie or Better %
4) Total Driving
5) Strokes Gained Putting (Emphasis on Poa Annua)

Hole by Hole Breakdown

Salaries, Odds, and Course History (2013-2017)

Golfer	DK Salary	FD Salary	OWGR	Odds	DK Odds	FD Odds	Cuts	2017	2016	2015	2014
Joel Dahmen	$7,100	$9,200	188	99	-8%	-141%	0/1	108	500	500	500
Martin Laird	$7,300	$8,800	164	60	35%	23%	4/4	17	8	64	3
Fabian Gomez	$6,600	$7,900	511	122	25%	-5%	3/3	43	26	17	500
Chez Reavie	$7,600	$9,500	62	48	44%	12%	4/4	13	22	17	53
Harold Varner	$8,300	$9,400	167	56	-11%	-5%	3/3	59	15	48	500
Bronson Burgoon	$7,500	$8,400	161	77	-31%	17%	1/2	17	500	114	500
Nick Watney	$7,200	$9,000	121	82	-10%	-77%	2/2	500	35	64	500
Chesson Hadley	$7,200	$9,900	75	65	31%	-123%	2/3	3	500	121	57
Hunter Mahan	$7,500	$7,800	387	72	-21%	50%	3/4	13	126	32	3
Lucas Glover	$7,100	$8,600	136	80	14%	-5%	2/4	30	71	17	75
Sungjae Im	$7,000	$7,800	97	79	28%	41%	0/0	500	500	500	500
Russell Henley	$8,100	$10,300	66	50	15%	-70%	1/2	500	71	41	500
J.J. Spaun	$6,800	$8,500	143	97	29%	-24%	1/2	78	55	500	500
Sam Ryder	$7,400	$8,700	192	95	-47%	-39%	0/1	100	500	500	500
Scott Piercy	$7,300	$8,800	247	65	24%	10%	2/3	17	3	500	107
Shawn Stefani	$7,300	$7,600	344	77	-5%	55%	2/3	65	500	121	53
Danny Lee	$7,500	$8,700	130	69	-10%	11%	2/2	500	50	500	46
Brandon Hagy	$7,200	$8,500	355	94	-17%	-17%	1/1	500	35	500	500
J.B. Holmes	$7,900	$9,100	88	56	9%	17%	0/0	500	500	500	500
Richy Werenski	$6,900	$8,700	196	131	-17%	-111%	2/2	37	35	500	500
Troy Merritt	$6,700	$8,400	182	127	9%	-63%	2/4	69	15	121	121
Corey Conners	$6,700	$8,400	420	138	-4%	-85%	1/1	30	500	500	500
Patrick Rodgers	$7,300	$9,000	158	62	30%	0%	2/4	43	82	6	133
Brandon Harkins	$6,900	$7,900	253	104	12%	14%	1/1	9	500	500	500
Kevin Streelman	$7,500	$8,700	149	73	-24%	0%	2/4	13	92	41	107
Chris Kirk	$8,600	$10,700	132	51	-20%	-125%	3/3	30	8	81	500
Johnson Wagner	$7,100	$8,900	400	135	-63%	-176%	2/3	100	3	48	500
Cameron Davis	$7,900	$7,800	99	65	-32%	59%	0/0	500	500	500	500
Ted Potter	$6,800	$8,500	98	122	7%	-62%	1/1	28	500	500	500
Mac Hughes	$7,100	$8,000	297	118	-35%	-5%	1/2	123	13	500	500
Jamie Lovemark	$7,700	$9,500	125	59	8%	-35%	3/3	43	20	48	500
Peter Malnati	$7,500	$7,800	330	77	-38%	43%	2/3	30	35	83	500
Dylan Frittelli	$7,600	$9,100	69	60	7%	-4%	0/0	500	500	500	500
Luke List	$8,800	$9,600	54	44	0%	13%	2/2	37	26	500	500
Russell Knox	$8,000	$10,100	57	48	24%	-45%	1/2	500	500	83	68
Tyler McCumber	$6,500	$7,300	304	169	1%	0%	0/0	500	500	500	500
Emiliano Grillo	$10,000	$11,000	61	27	17%	17%	3/3	28	26	1	500
Kevin Tway	$8,700	$9,700	138	53	-36%	-36%	2/2	52	62	500	500
Hudson Swafford	$7,200	$8,200	210	106	-40%	-4%	3/3	500	62	17	8
Anders Albertson	$7,000	$7,100	245	104	2%	48%	0/0	500	500	500	500
Peter Uihlein	$8,200	$9,600	65	45	26%	7%	0/1	123	500	500	500
Joaquin Niemann	$10,300	$11,100	157	28	-20%	-20%	0/0	500	500	500	500
Sam Saunders	$6,900	$8,300	190	110	2%	-23%	1/3	78	500	91	73
Brendan Steele	$9,000	$10,000	84	40	0%	8%	4/4	1	1	17	21
Andrew Landry	$7,700	$8,100	76	67	-24%	49%	1/1	7	500	500	500
Vaughn Taylor	$6,600	$8,300	265	167	-7%	-88%	1/2	78	15	500	500
Abraham Ancer	$9,300	$9,300	122	39	0%	57%	1/2	37	500	137	500
Matt Jones	$7,400	$7,900	217	70	3%	50%	1/3	43	500	101	95
Tom Hoge	$6,800	$7,500	218	135	-10%	13%	1/3	37	500	101	75
Adam Hadwin	$9,400	$10,500	58	31	13%	22%	2/3	500	71	41	53
Alex Prugh	$7,000	$7,100	373	106	-4%	45%	0/0	500	500	500	500
Jhonattan Vegas	$6,700	$8,800	90	100	34%	-74%	1/3	500	71	10	95
Kramer Hickok	$7,400	$7,500	129	75	-9%	60%	0/0	500	500	500	500
Whee Kim	$7,000	$7,800	112	96	11%	27%	2/4	54	13	101	126
Anirban Lahiri	$7,300	$9,200	114	80	-14%	-91%	0/0	500	500	500	500
Ryan Moore	$10,700	$11,200	71	22	25%	25%	2/2	17	500	10	500
David Hearn	$6,800	$8,100	441	140	-22%	-46%	2/4	54	113	91	68
Curtis Luck	$7,200	$8,300	411	102	-31%	-6%	0/0	500	500	500	500
Seamus Power	$6,800	$8,000	321	106	19%	6%	0/2	100	71	500	500
Sean O’Hair	$6,900	$7,500	140	125	-12%	21%	1/1	500	500	26	500
Sam Burns	$7,100	$8,800	126	105	-18%	-87%	0/0	500	500	500	500
Bud Cauley	$8,500	$9,000	183	72	-113%	-31%	2/2	7	50	500	500
Jim Knous	$6,400	$7,100	651	197	4%	0%	0/0	500	500	500	500
John Huh	$6,700	$8,200	266	149	-11%	-60%	1/4	108	35	91	95
Phil Mickelson	$10,900	$11,400	24	24	-33%	-33%	2/2	3	8	500	500
Sang-Moon Bae	$8,400	$7,100	327	43	29%	89%	1/2	123	500	500	1
Beau Hossler	$9,100	$10,800	77	39	10%	-29%	1/1	74	500	500	500
Sebastian Munoz	$6,300	$7,300	248	262	5%	-15%	0/0	500	500	500	500
Nate Lashley	$6,500	$7,700	456	177	-2%	-29%	0/1	78	500	500	500
Ricky Barnes	$6,500	$7,800	564	269	-17%	-69%	1/4	140	57	121	107
Jason Dufner	$7,800	$9,400	68	64	-13%	-42%	0/0	500	500	500	500
Patrick Cantlay	$11,600	$11,900	22	13	0%	50%	0/0	500	500	500	500
Tyler Duncan	$6,800	$8,200	331	138	-18%	-51%	1/1	5	500	500	500
Stephan Jaeger	$6,700	$7,800	224	126	10%	-6%	1/1	30	500	500	500
Ben Crane	$6,600	$7,700	348	139	5%	-9%	1/3	78	500	32	500
Brian Stuard	$7,200	$7,700	262	110	-52%	20%	1/3	62	92	500	121
Josh Teater	$6,400	$7,200	374	175	8%	1%	0/0	500	500	500	500
Bill Haas	$7,100	$8,900	151	80	10%	-52%	2/2	17	20	500	500
Ryan Blaum	$6,700	$8,000	273	177	-26%	-63%	1/2	78	26	500	500
Chris Stroud	$6,500	$7,700	209	168	2%	-24%	1/3	123	500	10	126
Trey Mullinax	$7,200	$7,800	204	108	-48%	11%	1/2	133	22	500	500
Michael Thompson	$6,900	$8,200	302	109	3%	-11%	1/3	500	92	74	75
Wes Roach	$6,500	$7,000	392	165	4%	16%	0/1	500	500	101	500
Brandt Snedeker	$11,300	$12,000	51	20	0%	-100%	2/2	500	500	17	57
Grayson Murray	$7,000	$8,300	177	120	-18%	-29%	1/2	9	103	500	500
Ollie Schniederjans	$8,900	$8,800	128	57	-83%	29%	2/3	17	135	48	500
Fred Couples	$6,300	$7,700	978	285	0%	-51%	0/0	500	500	500	500
Denny McCarthy	$9,700	$8,400	168	35	-14%	83%	0/1	114	500	500	500
Adam Schenk	$7,000	$7,000	290	81	21%	61%	0/1	100	500	500	500
James Hahn	$6,600	$7,700	115	125	22%	10%	1/3	500	71	41	95
Tyrone Van Aswegen	$6,500	$7,100	407	135	21%	25%	3/4	9	82	3	73
Nick Taylor	$7,100	$7,800	280	122	-41%	1%	1/4	9	126	114	95
Carlos Ortiz	$6,800	$7,200	474	162	-30%	8%	2/2	500	500	32	57
Cameron Champ	$7,100	$7,500	235	90	4%	49%	0/1	108	500	500	500
Adam Svensson	$6,500	$7,100	357	242	-10%	-4%	0/0	500	500	500	500
Robert Streb	$6,800	$7,600	191	134	-7%	10%	1/3	500	126	114	31
Kelly Kraft	$6,600	$7,400	156	136	10%	14%	1/3	69	82	91	500
Danny Willett	$7,000	$8,600	319	93	16%	-20%	0/0	500	500	500	500
Harris English	$6,600	$7,400	285	134	15%	20%	1/3	78	35	500	75
J.J. Henry	$6,300	$7,000	495	258	7%	2%	2/3	500	67	61	75
Maverick McNealy	$6,500	$8,400	600	242	-10%	-141%	1/1	52	500	500	500
Martin Trainer	$6,200	$7,000	256	346	-1%	-15%	0/0	500	500	500	500
Michael Kim	$6,900	$7,800	225	156	-43%	-33%	2/3	100	3	61	500
Chad Campbell	$7,000	$8,300	238	131	-33%	-46%	3/4	68	57	91	39
Benjamin Silverman	$6,500	$7,700	240	150	9%	-15%	1/1	43	500	500	500
JT Poston	$6,700	$8,500	309	173	-23%	-140%	0/0	500	500	500	500
Jonathan Byrd	$6,700	$7,200	414	177	-26%	0%	0/0	500	500	500	500
Roberto Castro	$6,600	$8,400	329	140	4%	-91%	2/2	500	35	69	500
Scott Brown	$6,700	$7,300	219	163	-17%	4%	2/3	62	500	121	12
Sung Kang	$6,900	$7,600	153	137	-29%	3%	1/2	62	71	500	500
Wesley Bryan	$6,500	$7,900	172	202	-7%	-64%	1/1	500	55	500	500
Cameron Tringale	$6,400	$7,000	465	213	2%	5%	3/4	43	82	64	26
Roberto Diaz	$6,800	$7,000	654	123	3%	38%	0/1	500	500	500	500
Chris Thompson	$6,200	$7,000	345	288	7%	-6%	0/0	500	500	500	500
Kyle Jones	$6,400	$7,000	296	262	-4%	0%	0/0	500	500	500	500
Chase Wright	$6,600	$7,000	227	258	-23%	2%	0/0	500	500	500	500
Dominic Bozzelli	$6,200	$7,600	417	342	1%	-49%	1/1	500	35	500	500
Julian Etulain	$6,300	$7,500	343	342	-7%	-41%	0/1	500	82	500	500
John Chin	$6,300	$7,000	396	315	-5%	-10%	0/0	500	500	500	500
Roger Sloan	$6,900	$7,000	388	145	-38%	22%	0/0	500	500	500	500
Cody Gribble	$6,300	$7,000	576	292	-2%	-8%	2/2	59	8	500	500
Scott Langley	$6,400	$7,600	284	265	-5%	-34%	2/2	500	500	55	17
Wyndham Clark	$6,200	$7,400	326	308	4%	-30%	0/0	500	500	500	500
Brady Schnell	$6,300	$7,000	322	408	-10%	-16%	0/0	500	500	500	500
Chad Collins	$6,300	$7,000	567	408	-10%	-16%	1/2	500	126	64	500
Max Homa	$6,700	$7,000	829	160	-15%	18%	1/2	500	135	500	39
Jose de Jesus Rodriguez	$6,200	$7,000	283	665	-5%	-20%	0/0	500	500	500	500
Jim Herman	$6,400	$7,000	450	335	-16%	-12%	1/2	500	500	72	118
Martin Piller	$6,300	$7,000	311	279	1%	-4%	2/2	69	500	81	500
Joey Garber	$6,300	$7,000	389	458	-12%	-18%	0/0	500	500	500	500
Jon Curran	$6,200	$7,000		465	-5%	-19%	2/4	123	26	83	8
Jonas Blixt	$6,400	$7,200	345	290	-11%	-19%	2/4	54	71	48	86
Sepp Straka	$6,600	$7,000	398	187	-15%	8%	0/0	500	500	500	500
Seth Reeves	$6,400	$7,000	512	231	1%	4%	0/0	500	500	500	500
John Senden	$6,400	$7,100		315	-14%	-19%	1/2	500	35	91	500
Kyoung-Hoon Lee	$6,400	$7,000	301	269	-6%	-3%	0/0	500	500	500	500
Adam Long	$6,200	$7,100	358	304	5%	-17%	0/0	500	500	500	500
Hank Lebioda	$6,200	$7,000	393	454	-3%	-17%	0/0	500	500	500	500
Mark Mulder	$6,200	$7,000		854	-6%	-21%	0/0	500	500	500	500
Jeff Brehaut	$6,200	$7,000		1327	-7%	-22%	0/0	500	500	500	500

Color Coding
Course history in BLUE indicates a top ten finish.
Course history in GREEN indicates a top 25 finish.
Course history in YELLOW indicates a made cut with a finish outside of the top 25.
Course history in RED indicates a missed cut.

Legend