PGA First Look: Sentry Tournament of Champions

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2018-01-04 20:10:08

The PGA First Look is complete with a course preview, odds, salaries, Official World Golf Rankings, and course history.

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Event Preview

The wait is finally over. The PGA Tour is back in action this week. We head to the beautiful Plantation Course at Kapalua in Hawaii. As you may have noticed, this event is called the tournament of champions and only golfers that won on tour last year were invited to play. There are only 34 golfers in the field this week, so the event won’t feature a cut. We’ll get back to having the Friday cut sweat next week at the Sony Open.

The Plantation Course is unique in that it is the only Par 73 course on the PGA Tour. Most courses feature four par threes, but this one only has three of them. There are four par fives, three par threes, and 11 par fours. The total length of the course (7,411 yards) seems daunting, but this course doesn’t play nearly that long. We will see plenty of 400 yard drives and even the shorter hitters will be getting it out there quite a ways. The course features extremely wide fairways (some of the widest on tour), which sets up on paper as a bomber course. However, we’ve seen shorter hitters compete here year in and year out. The course actually favors those who are deadly with their approach shots and great around the greens. In fact, 18 of the last 20 winners here were ranked tenth or better in scrambling.

Given the exposed nature of the course, it’s best defense is the wind. In a few of the past editions, there has been little to no wind, which has led to some incredibly low scoring. It looks like the wind could be a much bigger factor this year with steady 16+ MPH winds Thursday through Sunday. There isn’t going to be a major advantage for tee times because there are only 34 golfers and the tee times aren’t spread out very far, but we definitely want to give an edge to golfers that play well in the wind (cough — Marc Leishman). We also want to give an edge to golfers that putt well on Bermuda grass. While the fairways and greens are both easy to hit, there are a lot of three-putts on this golf course.

Even with the wind, I expect this to be another birdie fest. Over the last seven editions of this event, the scoring average is 70.48, which is two and a half strokes below par. With no cut, we want to target golfers that can score on the par fives and on the shorter par fours (six of them measure less than 400 yards). I’m also giving a slight bump to anyone that has played this course at least once. Outside of the best golfers in the world, first timers tend to struggle at this event.

Yardage Breakdown

Cut Rule:No cut this week.

Recent Winners of this Event: Justin Thomas (2017), Jordan Spieth (2016), Patrick Reed (2015), Zach Johnson (2014), Dustin Johnson (2013)

Key Statistics (In Order of Importance)

1) Strokes Gained Ball Striking (OTT + APP)
2) Birdie or Better %
3) Strokes Gained Short Game (ARG + Putting)
4) Par 5 Scoring
5) Par 4 Scoring

Salaries, Odds, and Course History (2013-2016)

Golfer	DK Salary	FD Salary	FDRFT Salary	OWGR	Odds	DK Odds	FD Odds	FDRFT Odds	2016	2015	2014	2013	2012
Jordan Spieth	$10,900	$12,300	$15,900	2	6	50%	50%	0%	3	1	500	2	500
Justin Thomas	$11,100	$12,200	$15,800	3	6	-100%	33%	0%	1	21	500	500	500
Dustin Johnson	$10,300	$12,500	$15,500	1	7	25%	-200%	40%	6	10	500	6	1
Rickie Fowler	$10,500	$12,000	$15,700	7	7	-33%	0%	-33%	500	5	500	500	6
Hideki Matsuyama	$9,800	$11,700	$15,400	5	11	0%	0%	17%	2	500	3	500	500
Brooks Koepka	$9,400	$11,400	$15,600	8	11	14%	0%	-50%	500	3	500	500	500
Jon Rahm	$9,500	$11,000	$15,300	4	12	-17%	0%	0%	500	500	500	500	500
Patrick Cantlay	$8,600	$9,300	$14,600	38	22	20%	43%	27%	500	500	500	500	500
Marc Leishman	$9,000	$10,000	$15,100	12	23	-13%	10%	0%	500	500	500	500	23
Kevin Kisner	$8,400	$10,500	$15,200	26	26	17%	-25%	-25%	500	9	500	500	500
Xander Schauffele	$8,500	$8,700	$14,700	25	26	0%	42%	-10%	500	500	500	500	500
Pat Perez	$8,000	$9,400	$14,500	19	28	14%	8%	0%	3	500	500	500	500
Brian Harman	$8,700	$9,200	$14,300	27	28	-44%	13%	7%	500	500	17	500	500
Daniel Berger	$8,200	$10,300	$14,200	28	33	-8%	-56%	13%	14	500	500	500	500
Cameron Smith	$7,600	$8,200	$14,400	61	37	12%	35%	-15%	500	500	500	500	500
Kevin Chappell	$7,700	$9,600	$14,300	34	42	0%	-33%	-14%	500	500	500	500	500
Russell Henley	$7,800	$8,800	$14,100	46	42	-13%	0%	0%	500	500	3	27	500
Brendan Steele	$7,400	$9,000	$14,100	45	46	0%	-13%	-6%	6	500	500	500	500
Kyle Stanley	$6,800	$8,600	$13,900	48	54	21%	5%	5%	500	500	500	500	30
Patton Kizzire	$7,300	$7,400	$13,700	121	64	-5%	31%	9%	500	500	500	500	500
Austin Cook	$7,100	$7,900	$14,000	144	65	0%	16%	-11%	500	500	500	500	500
Bryson DeChambeau	$7,000	$7,800	$13,800	99	66	0%	15%	-5%	500	500	500	500	500
Jason Dufner	$7,200	$9,700	$13,300	41	73	-15%	-109%	21%	21	500	500	5	18
Si Woo Kim	$6,700	$8,300	$13,400	42	80	4%	-14%	11%	30	500	500	500	500
Adam Hadwin	$6,600	$8,800	$13,500	60	89	4%	-47%	0%	500	500	500	500	500
Hudson Swafford	$6,900	$7,600	$13,600	93	94	-13%	4%	-8%	500	500	500	500	500
Billy Horschel	$6,500	$8,300	$13,700	70	100	0%	-29%	-23%	500	500	22	6	500
Jhonattan Vegas	$6,400	$7,500	$13,200	44	117	0%	0%	7%	30	500	500	500	500
Grayson Murray	$6,400	$8,000	$13,000	118	118	-4%	-21%	9%	500	500	500	500	500
Jonas Blixt	$6,300	$7,000	$13,500	281	142	0%	6%	-20%	500	500	500	21	18
Ryan Armour	$6,100	$7,000	$13,400	179	143	6%	3%	-15%	500	500	500	500	500
Wesley Bryan	$6,200	$7,300	$12,900	67	151	-3%	-7%	3%	500	500	500	500	500
Chris Stroud	$6,200	$7,100	$13,200	189	209	-6%	-6%	-10%	500	500	500	500	500
D.A. Points	$6,000	$7,000	$12,800	292	288	0%	-6%	0%	500	500	500	28	500

Color Coding
Course history in BLUE indicates a top ten finish.
Course history in GREEN indicates a top 25 finish.
Course history in YELLOW indicates a made cut with a finish outside of the top 25.
Course history in RED indicates a missed cut.

Legend