PGA First Look: Sony Open

The PGA First Look is complete with a course preview, odds, salaries, Official World Golf Rankings, and course history.

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Event Preview

After a beautiful week of Hawaii golf at the Sentry Tournament of Champions, we get another beautiful week of Hawaii golf at the Sony Open. This is the first full field event of the calendar year, which means this is the first PGA DFS cut sweat of the year. There is nothing better than the feeling of getting all six of your golfers through the cut. Getting married, having children, succeeding in your career are all great, but they are nothing compared to a perfect golf lineup. I’m joking of course, but I’m excited to have the Friday cut sweat back in our lives.

The course this week is the Waialae Country Club, which is a Par 70 that measures 7,044 yards. Outside of being in Hawaii and having Bermuda greens, this course and Kapalua don’t have many similarities. There are only two par fives at Waialae, it’s much shorter (nearly 400 yards), the fairways are thinner, and the greens are significantly smaller. This is more of an old school course where you have to have precision off the tee and with your approach shots.

On paper, this sets up as an accuracy course, but we’ve seen some longer hitters win here (Jimmy Walker and Justin Thomas). We’ve also seen a lot of shorter hitters contend each and every season. While driving accuracy can certainly help, it’s not a requisite. The last two winners here only hit 50% (Thomas) and 44% (Fabian Gomez) of fairways. The rough isn’t too penalizing, although the course does rank far down the list in terms of rough proximity. More important than being accurate, you have to keep the ball in play and hit greens.

The course’s best defense is the wind, but if the current forecast holds, we are going to see some great weather in Hawaii this week. As of Tuesday, winds are expected to be between three and nine MPH all week. This should lead to a low scoring week. This has been one of the top eight easiest courses in each of the last two seasons and I expect that trend to continue this year. Look for the cut to be under par and the winning score to be around 20-under par. I’m going to lean on good ball strikers and golfers that have had success at this course and in Hawaii.

Cut Rule: Top 70 and ties move on after the first two rounds. The MDF rule is in effect if more than 78 golfers make the initial cut.

Recent Winners of this Event: Justin Thomas (2017), Fabian Gomez (2016), Jimmy Walker (2015), Jimmy Walker (2014), Russell Henley (2013)

Key Statistics (In Order of Importance)

1) Strokes Gained Approach
2) Strokes Gained Off the Tee
3) Birdie or Better %
4) Par 4 Scoring
5) Strokes Gained Putting (Emphasis on Bermuda)

Salaries, Odds, and Course History (2013-2016)

Golfer DK Salary FD Salary FDRFT Salary OWGR Odds DK Odds FD Odds FDRFT Odds 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013
Jordan Spieth $12,000 $12,800 $19,800 2 5 0% 0% 0% 3 500 500 96 500
Justin Thomas $11,600 $12,600 $19,400 3 7 0% 0% 0% 1 113 6 500 500
Marc Leishman $11,100 $11,400 $17,600 12 15 0% 25% 0% 20 28 37 5 9
Brian Harman $10,600 $11,300 $17,400 27 18 0% 20% 0% 20 13 13 32 135
Kevin Kisner $10,100 $11,700 $16,800 26 23 0% -67% 0% 4 5 84 80 500
Zach Johnson $9,500 $10,500 $16,400 47 28 0% 40% 0% 6 9 64 8 75
Webb Simpson $9,300 $10,800 $15,900 43 38 -86% -44% -8% 13 13 13 500 20
Russell Henley $9,200 $9,800 $16,400 46 32 0% 50% -33% 13 131 17 51 1
Cameron Smith $9,000 $9,300 $16,200 61 34 -11% 64% -11% 27 81 500 500 500
Tony Finau $8,900 $11,000 $16,300 40 31 30% 0% 13% 20 64 86 500 500
Charles Howell $8,800 $10,100 $15,800 65 40 -27% -8% 0% 8 13 26 8 3
Daniel Berger $8,700 $11,100 $16,200 28 34 25% -50% 0% 45 42 13 500 500
Xander Schauffele $8,600 $9,900 $15,900 25 38 8% 20% 0% 98 500 500 500 500
Si Woo Kim $8,500 $10,000 $15,100 42 47 -14% -14% 11% 500 4 500 500 500
William McGirt $8,400 $9,500 $14,800 87 66 -60% -14% -9% 49 13 71 46 500
Ollie Schniederjans $8,300 $9,400 $14,700 119 67 -56% -4% -4% 27 500 500 500 500
Bill Haas $8,200 $10,400 $15,200 56 53 -6% -64% -13% 13 500 500 500 500
Jamie Lovemark $8,100 $9,600 $15,000 94 57 -6% 5% 0% 4 7 500 123 500
Chez Reavie $8,000 $9,300 $14,900 95 58 -5% 29% 0% 8 42 26 500 119
Emiliano Grillo $7,900 $8,400 $14,600 73 70 -35% 49% -4% 500 33 500 500 500
Brian Gay $7,900 $8,100 $13,900 198 85 -70% 46% 3% 13 96 500 32 31
Gary Woodland $7,800 $10,200 $16,100 55 36 50% 8% 0% 6 13 3 500 500
Brian Stuard $7,800 $8,300 $13,800 220 94 -77% 30% -3% 45 500 101 6 5
Peter Uihlein $7,700 $9,400 $15,200 52 50 29% 29% -6% 500 500 500 500 500
Scott Piercy $7,700 $9,200 $13,700 122 93 -54% -23% 8% 57 13 2 80 15
Chris Stroud $7,700 $8,500 $13,900 189 97 -67% 20% -14% 500 137 110 20 90
Austin Cook $7,600 $9,700 $14,900 144 59 22% -17% -5% 500 500 500 500 500
J.J. Spaun $7,600 $9,000 $14,700 116 63 15% 34% 4% 120 500 500 500 500
Patton Kizzire $7,600 $9,400 $14,800 121 63 19% 8% 0% 500 88 500 500 500
James Hahn $7,600 $8,700 $13,500 83 108 -56% -2% -2% 36 28 26 46 67
Jason Kokrak $7,500 $9,100 $13,800 131 93 -19% -16% 3% 500 500 17 20 72
Luke List $7,500 $8,500 $14,300 138 78 0% 38% 0% 13 88 500 500 125
Jerry Kelly $7,500 $8,000 $13,300 475 126 -68% 26% -16% 83 9 6 3 75
Kevin Na $7,400 $9,500 $14,600 91 69 24% -24% 0% 36 28 64 8 75
Keegan Bradley $7,400 $9,200 $14,400 71 76 12% 0% -3% 120 123 500 500 49
Sean O’Hair $7,400 $9,700 $13,400 96 106 -21% -128% 5% 11 42 133 138 500
Scott Brown $7,400 $9,100 $13,300 107 111 -32% -41% 0% 64 500 86 68 500
Wesley Bryan $7,400 $8,800 $13,500 67 109 -29% -16% -7% 113 500 500 500 500
Jason Dufner $7,300 $10,900 $15,400 41 45 62% -88% 0% 83 9 500 29 500
Hudson Swafford $7,300 $8,800 $14,100 93 74 26% 24% 9% 13 9 101 8 500
Kyle Stanley $7,300 $9,400 $14,500 48 73 28% -17% 0% 36 13 500 500 67
Danny Lee $7,300 $9,000 $13,200 108 118 -23% -37% 0% 500 33 86 96 13
Matt Jones $7,300 $7,600 $12,700 262 153 -51% 34% -2% 500 500 70 500 15
Kelly Kraft $7,300 $8,000 $12,300 210 196 -85% -3% -3% 27 500 500 500 500
Robert Streb $7,300 $8,200 $12,600 152 171 -67% -8% 0% 49 500 17 68 73
Daisuke Kataoka $7,300 $7,700 $11,400 148 297 -177% -27% 0% 98 33 500 500 500
Jimmy Walker $7,200 $9,800 $13,900 68 82 30% -106% 6% 83 13 1 1 26
Ben Martin $7,200 $8,700 $13,100 253 132 -15% -32% -6% 36 50 51 38 500
Seamus Power $7,200 $8,300 $12,700 339 168 -34% -13% -9% 49 500 500 500 500
Patrick Rodgers $7,200 $8,700 $13,200 171 125 -9% -24% -6% 83 500 500 500 500
Billy Hurley $7,200 $7,200 $11,300 229 312 -136% 3% -1% 20 500 86 38 500
Tom Lovelady $7,200 $7,000 $11,100 390 356 -157% 2% 0% 500 500 500 500 500
Xin-Jun Zhang $7,200 $7,300 $11,300 287 317 -143% -7% -4% 500 500 500 500 500
Troy Merritt $7,200 $7,300 $11,300 501 312 -136% -4% -1% 132 137 30 80 500
Keith Mitchell $7,200 $7,100 $11,600 353 279 -123% 12% -6% 500 500 500 500 500
Sam Ryder $7,200 $7,000 $11,000 258 415 -170% -2% -2% 500 500 500 500 500
Nate Lashley $7,200 $7,100 $11,200 280 347 -153% 0% -3% 500 500 500 500 500
Andrew Putnam $7,200 $7,100 $11,300 356 300 -132% 8% 1% 500 500 116 500 500
Russell Knox $7,100 $9,500 $14,400 77 79 46% -52% -10% 11 88 13 80 75
Chris Kirk $7,100 $8,700 $14,000 187 86 41% 15% -6% 120 96 26 2 5
Sam Saunders $7,100 $7,600 $12,200 260 212 -29% 16% -3% 500 104 126 500 500
Morgan Hoffmann $7,100 $7,900 $12,000 190 212 -29% -4% 10% 120 13 51 65 67
Fabian Gomez $7,100 $7,800 $12,700 434 160 -5% 19% -7% 72 1 71 500 67
Tom Hoge $7,100 $7,800 $12,300 394 204 -25% 4% -6% 500 123 71 500 500
Ted Potter $7,100 $7,500 $12,100 217 226 -44% 11% -5% 500 500 500 104 75
Abraham Ancer $7,100 $7,200 $11,600 267 262 -68% 14% 0% 500 500 500 500 500
D.A. Points $7,100 $7,100 $11,000 292 353 -103% -1% 4% 500 500 500 51 500
Rob Oppenheim $7,100 $7,500 $11,800 240 240 -51% 7% 4% 500 137 500 500 500
Zecheng Dou $7,100 $7,000 $11,000 332 431 -117% -3% -2% 500 500 500 500 500
Tatsuya Kodai $7,100 $7,000 $10,800 348 488 -125% -7% -1% 500 500 500 500 500
Andrew Landry $7,000 $8,100 $12,900 172 115 34% 25% 13% 500 500 500 500 500
Aaron Wise $7,000 $7,600 $13,200 223 123 31% 46% -2% 500 500 500 500 500
Ryan Palmer $7,000 $8,700 $13,300 193 111 35% -12% -2% 120 13 17 8 66
Luke Donald $7,000 $8,600 $13,100 140 129 25% -15% -4% 500 28 51 500 500
Mac Hughes $7,000 $8,600 $12,300 145 182 3% -50% 1% 27 500 500 500 500
Blayne Barber $7,000 $7,800 $12,600 343 176 7% 14% -2% 500 500 60 500 500
Brandon Harkins $7,000 $8,300 $12,200 349 218 -15% -46% -11% 500 500 500 500 500
Jim Herman $7,000 $7,300 $11,900 173 249 -30% 14% -6% 10 84 78 80 125
Tyrone Van Aswegen $7,000 $8,200 $12,100 331 222 -17% -38% -2% 120 64 500 61 500
Beau Hossler $7,000 $8,600 $12,200 303 194 0% -54% 4% 500 500 500 500 500
Cameron Tringale $7,000 $7,600 $12,000 326 231 -21% 4% -2% 500 500 500 104 119
John Huh $7,000 $7,900 $12,100 426 212 -7% -4% 6% 27 33 78 72 31
Vijay Singh $7,000 $7,400 $11,800 374 251 -32% 10% -1% 57 50 110 104 20
Matt Every $7,000 $7,100 $11,900 707 240 -25% 25% -2% 120 500 500 8 90
Sang-Moon Bae $7,000 $8,100 $11,600 274 -42% -60% -2% 500 500 51 32 58
Ryan Armour $6,900 $8,100 $14,000 179 92 58% 43% -9% 500 500 500 500 500
Whee Kim $6,900 $8,300 $12,800 112 146 33% -4% -4% 79 84 500 500 500
Chad Campbell $6,900 $8,400 $12,200 245 212 12% -43% -3% 74 67 133 500 41
Tyler Duncan $6,900 $7,700 $12,300 199 15% 14% -4% 500 500 500 500 500
Stephan Jaeger $6,900 $7,800 $12,000 266 246 -6% -18% -8% 500 500 500 500 500
Michael Kim $6,900 $7,500 $11,700 333 256 -10% 1% 0% 20 96 500 500 500
Peter Malnati $6,900 $8,200 $11,500 688 282 -23% -77% 0% 27 79 500 38 500
Bronson Burgoon $6,900 $7,300 $11,600 439 285 -24% 0% -8% 500 75 500 500 500
John Peterson $6,900 $7,800 $11,600 728 276 -20% -34% -4% 83 500 37 20 500
K.J. Choi $6,900 $7,600 $11,600 598 259 -14% -9% 1% 132 50 44 20 102
Joel Dahmen $6,900 $7,300 $11,000 510 368 -43% -15% 2% 500 500 500 500 500
Brett Stegmaier $6,900 $7,300 $11,200 666 341 -37% -10% -3% 500 113 500 500 500
Tyler Ota $6,900 $7,000 $10,600 856 -58% -10% 0% 500 500 500 500 500
Stewart Cink $6,800 $9,100 $12,800 146 141 43% -75% 0% 36 42 37 20 131
Vaughn Taylor $6,800 $8,400 $12,700 272 146 42% -8% 2% 57 500 500 500 500
Benjamin Silverman $6,800 $8,100 $13,100 239 123 49% 21% 2% 500 500 500 500 500
Harris English $6,800 $8,100 $12,700 257 156 38% 3% -5% 83 56 3 4 9
Kevin Tway $6,800 $8,100 $12,500 191 185 29% -11% -3% 120 500 500 123 500
Richy Werenski $6,800 $8,000 $11,900 271 234 11% -26% -1% 49 500 500 500 500
Aaron Baddeley $6,800 $7,900 $12,200 214 212 23% -4% -3% 500 500 500 500 500
Satoshi Kodaira $6,800 $8,900 $12,700 51 168 36% -70% -9% 49 81 500 500 500
Yusaku Miyazato $6,800 $8,600 $12,400 50 181 31% -48% 1% 98 70 140 104 500
Jonas Blixt $6,800 $7,700 $12,600 281 178 32% 21% -3% 83 141 500 500 111
Shugo Imahira $6,800 $7,600 $12,200 85 216 18% 10% -9% 500 500 500 500 500
Dominic Bozzelli $6,800 $8,500 $11,200 251 338 -18% -134% -2% 500 500 500 500 500
Ethan Tracy $6,800 $7,300 $11,000 487 438 -30% -21% -3% 500 500 500 500 500
Jon Curran $6,800 $7,000 $11,000 461 447 -31% -5% -4% 69 104 101 500 500
Eric Dugas $6,800 $7,000 $10,600 1031 -38% -10% -1% 500 500 500 78 500
Harold Varner $6,700 $8,800 $13,400 142 108 62% -13% 0% 83 13 500 500 500
Brice Garnett $6,700 $7,800 $12,900 208 140 52% 29% -2% 500 500 123 38 500
Talor Gooch $6,700 $7,700 $11,900 212 256 17% -12% -9% 500 500 500 500 500
Jonathan Randolph $6,700 $7,400 $11,400 250 276 10% 1% 5% 500 500 78 500 500
Ryan Blaum $6,700 $7,500 $11,200 375 326 -1% -20% 0% 74 500 500 500 500
Corey Conners $6,700 $7,700 $11,700 676 250 18% -9% 2% 500 500 500 500 500
Martin Piller $6,700 $7,500 $11,700 298 262 13% -3% -4% 500 500 500 500 500
Steve Wheatcroft $6,700 $7,000 $11,200 558 335 -2% 6% -1% 500 67 86 500 500
Hyung-Sung Kim $6,700 $7,500 $11,200 365 -7% -27% -6% 74 96 30 65 500
Conrad Shindler $6,700 $7,200 $11,100 369 379 -10% -9% -3% 500 500 500 500 500
Mark Wilson $6,700 $7,000 $10,800 1035 481 -16% -6% 0% 500 113 71 51 111
Omar Uresti $6,700 $7,000 $10,600 1031 -20% -10% -1% 500 500 500 500 500
Smylie Kaufman $6,600 $7,900 $12,700 233 155 52% 18% -3% 83 500 500 500 500
Rory Sabbatini $6,600 $7,400 $11,700 377 232 31% 16% 8% 45 96 6 104 59
Michael Thompson $6,600 $7,000 $12,200 330 210 40% 40% -1% 20 56 500 118 90
Adam Schenk $6,600 $7,800 $11,500 304 309 13% -43% -4% 500 500 500 500 500
Nicholas Lindheim $6,600 $7,800 $11,900 305 224 33% -9% 3% 143 500 500 500 500
J.J. Henry $6,600 $7,500 $11,300 517 315 10% -18% -3% 83 70 30 500 102
Cody Gribble $6,600 $7,500 $11,900 312 257 23% -1% -11% 98 500 500 500 500
Jonathan Byrd $6,600 $7,200 $11,600 282 274 20% 12% -2% 500 500 500 96 500
Lanto Griffin $6,600 $7,000 $11,000 368 453 -4% -6% -5% 500 500 500 500 500
Colt Knost $6,600 $11,100 527 385 0% -4% 83 75 17 500 90
Greg Chalmers $6,600 $7,000 $11,100 446 375 2% 0% -2% 98 500 500 51 500
Matt Atkins $6,600 $7,000 $10,800 418 506 -6% -8% -2% 500 500 500 500 500
Roberto Diaz $6,600 $7,300 $10,700 569 531 -7% -26% 0% 500 500 500 500 500

Color Coding
Course history in BLUE indicates a top ten finish.
Course history in GREEN indicates a top 25 finish.
Course history in YELLOW indicates a made cut with a finish outside of the top 25.
Course history in RED indicates a missed cut.

Legend

Term Description
Site Odds The percentage differential between a golfer’s salary rank and odds rank. The higher the %, the better.
OWGR Official World Golf Ranking
Cuts Cut record of each golfer at this course in the last five seasons.
2013 – 2016 Columns Course history at this event in the last five seasons.

About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on Twitter – @RG_Notorious