PGA First Look: The Masters
The PGA First Look is complete with a course preview, odds, salaries, Official World Golf Rankings, and course history.
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The Masters Preview
It’s that time of year again; it’s starting to warm up (at least in Utah) and we bring in the warmer weather by watching the best golf tournament in the world. If you are a golf fan, this has to be one of your favorite weeks of the year. Not only is it the most prestigious major of the four, but it is the only one that is held at the same venue each and every season. We all know and love Augusta National, from the pine straw, the azaleas, Rae’s Creek, to Amen Corner. Even if we can’t be there in person like the Tour Junkies, we will all be tuning in on television throughout the four days. If you want to get really familiar with the event, you can learn all of the Masters terminology. As you may remember last season, Jordan Spieth’s epic collapse on the par three, 12th opened the door for Danny Willett to win his first green jacket and his first career major.
Augusta National is a Par 72 golf course that measures 7,435 yards. The length alone is already daunting on paper and the course actually plays a little longer than that. The fairways are usually sloped toward the tee boxes, which limits the roll that golfers will get off of their drives. If rain comes into play (which we will get to in a second), the course gets even longer. Overall, this is a very tough test of golf, but there will be plenty of birdies made this week. The four par fives are the easiest four holes on the course, so golfers will need to take advantage of those holes if they want to be in contention on Sunday. The winning score is generally around 10-under par, but that can change depending on the weather. In 2015, Jordan Spieth won with 18-under par. Last year, the wind picked up and Danny Willett won with a score of only 5-under par. The greens are some of the toughest that golfers will see all season. They are undulating and very fast. If possible, you always want to be under the hole, so you aren’t leaving yourself with tricky downhill five-footers for par.
The top 50 golfers in the world are in the field this week, along with some names that you probably won’t recognize. Once you win the Masters, you are eligible to play there for the rest of your life if you so choose. The field also features some amateurs and a few other names that qualified in various ways. There are only 94 golfers in the field this week. With a smaller field than the other majors, the Masters has its own cut rule. Following the second round, the top 50 and ties will make the cut, plus any golfer within 10 strokes of the lead. If no one runs away from the field in the first two days, we could see two-thirds of the field make the cut. This is important from a DFS perspective, because that number is a lot higher than it is for most tournaments. Additionally, when we take the golfers that have little chance of making the cut out of our player pool, that cut percentage could be even higher, so we are afforded the ability to play the studs at the top and surround them with values.
You will hear a million different statistics this week about what it takes to win the Masters. You will even hear things that couldn’t possible have anything to do with picking the winner. However, you should know that a first timer hasn’t won this event since Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979. Jordan Spieth came close in 2014, but we should give a slight downgrade to all of the players that are making their Masters debuts. The main reason for this is that course knowledge comes in handy here more than any other course on tour. You have to know which side of the hole to be on, where you can miss with your approach shots, and you have to know how to putt on these greens. You also have to be able to handle the pressure of playing in the Masters. Course history will be a heavy weight for me this week. I’m not saying that we have to fade Jon Rahm because he has never played here before, but we shouldn’t expect him to come out and win. If you are familiar with shot shapes of golfers, the preferred shape here is right-to-left, which really helps cut some of the corners on the doglegs.
Lead-in form has also been important in identifying the winner at the Masters. We usually see the best golfers in the world peak at this time of year, but Jason Day, Hideki Matsuyama, Henrik Stenson, Gary Woodland, and Patrick Reed are all concerning right now, whether it be from factors on or off the course. If we can find golfers that are in good form and have some type of a track record at Augusta, they will make my short list. We also want to favor distance over accuracy off the tee. The fairways here are wide and we know how long this course can play. We obviously want to target birdie-makers, but I will also be looking at bogey avoidance. To be in contention, you have to avoid the blow-up hole that can kill your round. I will also be looking at strokes gained approach and strokes gained putting.
Weather: I always lean on Kevin Roth for my weather updates, so make sure to check out his post in the forums later this week. However, an early look at the forecast shows strong thunderstorms on Wednesday, which could soften up the course. On Thursday and Friday, we may avoid the rain, but it looks like we could be dealing with winds up to 25 MPH.
Cut Rule: The top 50 golfers and ties will move on after the first two rounds. Golfers within ten shots of the leader will also move on after the first two rounds.
Recent Winners of this Event:Danny Willett (2016), Jordan Spieth (2015), Bubba Watson (2014), Adam Scott (2013), Bubba Watson (2012)
Key Statistics (In Order of Importance)
1) Strokes Gained Tee to Green
2) Birdie or Better %
3) Strokes Gained Approach
4) Par 5 Scoring
5) Bogey Avoidance
6) Strokes Gained Putting
Salaries, Odds, and Course History (2012-2016)
| Golfer | DK Salary | FD Salary | OWGR | Odds | DK Odds Diff | FD Odds Diff | Cuts | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Spieth | $11,500 | $10,600 | 6 | 8 | -100% | 0% | 3/3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 500 | 500 |
| Dustin Johnson | $11,300 | $11,000 | 1 | 6 | 50% | 0% | 3/4 | 4 | 6 | 68 | 13 | 500 |
| Rory McIlroy | $10,600 | $10,400 | 2 | 8 | 0% | 0% | 5/5 | 10 | 4 | 8 | 25 | 40 |
| Jason Day | $10,200 | $10,000 | 3 | 20 | -25% | -25% | 4/4 | 10 | 28 | 20 | 3 | 500 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | $9,900 | $9,700 | 4 | 20 | 20% | 20% | 3/4 | 7 | 5 | 68 | 500 | 54 |
| Henrik Stenson | $9,500 | $9,200 | 5 | 30 | -67% | -11% | 5/5 | 24 | 19 | 14 | 18 | 40 |
| Rickie Fowler | $9,300 | $9,200 | 9 | 21 | 14% | 33% | 4/5 | 69 | 12 | 5 | 38 | 27 |
| Justin Rose | $9,200 | $9,500 | 13 | 26 | -13% | -29% | 5/5 | 10 | 2 | 14 | 25 | 8 |
| Justin Thomas | $8,900 | $8,900 | 8 | 37 | -33% | 0% | 1/1 | 39 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Adam Scott | $8,800 | $9,700 | 7 | 33 | -10% | -120% | 5/5 | 42 | 38 | 14 | 1 | 8 |
| Phil Mickelson | $8,700 | $9,100 | 19 | 26 | 27% | 27% | 3/5 | 58 | 2 | 52 | 54 | 3 |
| Jon Rahm | $8,600 | $9,300 | 14 | 24 | 42% | 13% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Bubba Watson | $8,400 | $8,300 | 18 | 43 | -8% | 7% | 5/5 | 37 | 38 | 1 | 50 | 1 |
| Sergio Garcia | $8,300 | $8,100 | 11 | 39 | 7% | 24% | 4/5 | 34 | 17 | 52 | 8 | 12 |
| Patrick Reed | $8,200 | $7,900 | 12 | 78 | -60% | -33% | 2/3 | 49 | 22 | 72 | 500 | 500 |
| Louis Oosthuizen | $8,100 | $8,500 | 28 | 54 | -13% | -29% | 4/5 | 15 | 19 | 25 | 71 | 2 |
| Brandt Snedeker | $8,000 | $7,800 | 22 | 51 | 6% | 20% | 4/5 | 10 | 56 | 37 | 6 | 19 |
| Charl Schwartzel | $7,900 | $7,400 | 29 | 76 | -28% | 8% | 3/5 | 63 | 38 | 52 | 25 | 50 |
| Paul Casey | $7,800 | $8,300 | 16 | 43 | 21% | 0% | 2/3 | 4 | 6 | 500 | 500 | 65 |
| Danny Willett | $7,800 | $7,400 | 17 | 116 | -105% | -56% | 2/2 | 1 | 38 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Thomas Pieters | $7,700 | $6,600 | 34 | 73 | -5% | 46% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Gary Woodland | $7,700 | $6,900 | 35 | 100 | -57% | -10% | 1/2 | 500 | 56 | 26 | 500 | 500 |
| Tyrrell Hatton | $7,600 | $7,600 | 15 | 51 | 26% | 26% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Jimmy Walker | $7,600 | $7,900 | 24 | 94 | -39% | -78% | 3/3 | 29 | 38 | 8 | 500 | 500 |
| Brooks Koepka | $7,500 | $6,800 | 25 | 66 | 20% | 39% | 2/2 | 21 | 33 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Alexander Noren | $7,500 | $6,700 | 10 | 91 | -20% | 21% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Branden Grace | $7,500 | $6,400 | 20 | 104 | -40% | 20% | 1/4 | 63 | 67 | 80 | 18 | 500 |
| Matthew Fitzpatrick | $7,400 | $6,700 | 30 | 69 | 25% | 45% | 1/2 | 7 | 500 | 52 | 500 | 500 |
| Matt Kuchar | $7,400 | $8,700 | 21 | 86 | 0% | -115% | 5/5 | 24 | 46 | 5 | 8 | 3 |
| Zach Johnson | $7,400 | $7,700 | 50 | 112 | -36% | -81% | 3/5 | 63 | 9 | 63 | 35 | 32 |
| Daniel Berger | $7,300 | $6,400 | 40 | 81 | 19% | 43% | 1/1 | 10 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Emiliano Grillo | $7,300 | $6,000 | 32 | 122 | -32% | 20% | 1/1 | 17 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Shane Lowry | $7,300 | $6,800 | 63 | 130 | -35% | -27% | 1/2 | 39 | 56 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Russell Henley | $7,200 | 117 | 82 | 24% | 0% | 2/3 | 500 | 21 | 31 | 81 | 500 | |
| Lee Westwood | $7,200 | $7,100 | 53 | 92 | 9% | -11% | 5/5 | 2 | 46 | 7 | 8 | 3 |
| Bill Haas | $7,200 | $7,100 | 39 | 105 | -6% | -29% | 5/5 | 24 | 12 | 20 | 20 | 37 |
| Rafael Cabrera-Bello | $7,200 | $7,600 | 26 | 119 | -18% | -74% | 1/1 | 17 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Martin Kaymer | $7,200 | $6,800 | 44 | 140 | -29% | -33% | 4/5 | 49 | 80 | 31 | 35 | 44 |
| Jim Furyk | $7,200 | $7,700 | 57 | 174 | -50% | -143% | 3/4 | 500 | 56 | 14 | 25 | 11 |
| Marc Leishman | $7,100 | $6,500 | 27 | 61 | 53% | 56% | 1/3 | 58 | 500 | 52 | 4 | 500 |
| J.B. Holmes | $7,100 | $7,200 | 37 | 104 | 15% | -26% | 1/2 | 4 | 56 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Charley Hoffman | $7,100 | $6,700 | 52 | 131 | -8% | -13% | 2/2 | 29 | 9 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Jason Dufner | $7,100 | $6,900 | 70 | 150 | -15% | -53% | 3/5 | 69 | 49 | 85 | 20 | 24 |
| Bernd Wiesberger | $7,100 | $6,200 | 41 | 166 | -23% | -2% | 2/2 | 34 | 22 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Brendan Steele | $7,100 | $6,100 | 56 | 179 | -33% | -8% | 0/1 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 89 |
| Kevin Na | $7,100 | $5,900 | 51 | 196 | -43% | -8% | 4/4 | 55 | 12 | 500 | 59 | 12 |
| Steve Stricker | $7,100 | $6,100 | 111 | 252 | -60% | -31% | 4/4 | 500 | 28 | 31 | 20 | 47 |
| Ryan Moore | $7,000 | $6,600 | 38 | 156 | 0% | -17% | 2/4 | 78 | 12 | 52 | 38 | 500 |
| Byeong-Hun An | $7,000 | $5,800 | 55 | 171 | -4% | 11% | 0/1 | 58 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Pat Perez | $7,000 | $5,500 | 62 | 179 | -13% | 10% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Andy Sullivan | $7,000 | $5,600 | 60 | 189 | -15% | 4% | 0/1 | 81 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Russell Knox | $7,000 | $5,900 | 23 | 198 | -21% | -9% | 0/1 | 63 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Hudson Swafford | $7,000 | $5,000 | 81 | 205 | -23% | 12% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Webb Simpson | $7,000 | $6,000 | 65 | 238 | -27% | -20% | 3/5 | 29 | 28 | 52 | 62 | 44 |
| Adam Hadwin | $6,900 | $6,300 | 46 | 84 | 51% | 41% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | $6,900 | $6,800 | 33 | 88 | 47% | 12% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Kevin Kisner | $6,900 | $6,800 | 36 | 108 | 33% | -12% | 1/1 | 37 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Ross Fisher | $6,900 | $6,300 | 49 | 140 | 18% | 2% | 1/1 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 47 |
| Jeunghun Wang | $6,900 | $4,800 | 47 | 255 | -22% | 4% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| William McGirt | $6,900 | $5,300 | 54 | 263 | -24% | -8% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| James Hahn | $6,900 | $4,700 | 78 | 315 | -27% | 1% | 0/1 | 500 | 56 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Curtis Luck | $6,900 | $4,500 | 454 | -38% | 7% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | |
| Francesco Molinari | $6,800 | $6,900 | 31 | 175 | 17% | -73% | 2/3 | 500 | 500 | 50 | 84 | 19 |
| Scott Piercy | $6,800 | $5,900 | 45 | 239 | 2% | -17% | 2/2 | 29 | 500 | 500 | 54 | 500 |
| Kevin Chappell | $6,800 | $5,200 | 43 | 253 | -3% | 0% | 1/1 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 44 |
| Roberto Castro | $6,800 | $4,600 | 86 | 358 | -13% | 7% | 0/1 | 500 | 500 | 80 | 500 | 500 |
| Angel Cabrera | $6,700 | $5,100 | 687 | 195 | 16% | 15% | 4/5 | 24 | 22 | 72 | 2 | 32 |
| Jhonattan Vegas | $6,700 | $5,300 | 61 | 226 | 10% | 5% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Si Woo Kim | $6,700 | $4,700 | 68 | 449 | -12% | -6% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Ernie Els | $6,700 | $4,600 | 409 | 456 | -15% | -1% | 2/4 | 69 | 22 | 52 | 13 | 500 |
| Yuta Ikeda | $6,600 | $4,700 | 42 | 421 | -4% | -4% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Daniel Summerhays | $6,600 | $4,700 | 87 | 481 | -11% | -11% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Mackenzie Hughes | $6,600 | $4,700 | 115 | 498 | -14% | -14% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Soren Kjeldsen | $6,500 | $5,600 | 59 | 152 | 36% | 18% | 1/1 | 7 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Hideto Tanihara | $6,500 | $5,400 | 48 | 251 | 15% | -3% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Chris Wood | $6,500 | $5,600 | 58 | 254 | 11% | -16% | 1/1 | 42 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Sean O’Hair | $6,500 | $5,400 | 85 | 306 | 7% | -13% | 1/1 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 32 |
| Bernhard Langer | $6,400 | $4,900 | 996 | 405 | 6% | -7% | 3/5 | 24 | 56 | 8 | 25 | 72 |
| Billy Hurley | $6,400 | $4,600 | 133 | 460 | 0% | -3% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Brian Stuard | $6,400 | $4,600 | 143 | 500 | -5% | -8% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Fred Couples | $6,300 | $4,900 | 377 | 11% | -6% | 3/4 | 500 | 89 | 20 | 13 | 12 | |
| Rod Pampling | $6,300 | $4,600 | 147 | 497 | 1% | -5% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Vijay Singh | $6,300 | $4,600 | 242 | 555 | -2% | -9% | 4/5 | 69 | 54 | 37 | 38 | 27 |
| Scott Gregory | $6,200 | $4,500 | 863 | 0% | -2% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | |
| Brad Dalke | $6,200 | $4,500 | 1082 | -1% | -4% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | |
| Ian Woosnam | $6,200 | $4,500 | 1398 | -6% | -9% | 0/5 | 88 | 73 | 63 | 88 | 81 | |
| Stewart Hagestad | $6,100 | $4,500 | 1168 | 1% | -5% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | |
| Jose Maria Olazabal | $6,100 | $4,500 | 1224 | 0% | -6% | 2/4 | 500 | 77 | 34 | 50 | 65 | |
| Trevor Immelman | $6,100 | $4,500 | 1530 | -3% | -10% | 2/5 | 58 | 89 | 80 | 50 | 60 | |
| Mark O’Meara | $6,100 | $4,500 | 1615 | -5% | -11% | 1/4 | 81 | 22 | 72 | 72 | 500 | |
| Toto Gana | $6,000 | $4,500 | 1379 | 3% | -7% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | |
| Sandy Lyle | $6,000 | $4,500 | 1752 | -1% | -12% | 2/5 | 81 | 77 | 44 | 54 | 93 | |
| Mike Weir | $6,000 | $4,500 | 1761 | -2% | -13% | 1/5 | 77 | 96 | 44 | 72 | 65 | |
| Larry Mize | $6,000 | $4,500 | 1838 | -3% | -15% | 2/5 | 52 | 80 | 51 | 62 | 65 |
Color Coding
Course history in BLUE indicates a top ten finish.
Course history in GREEN indicates a top 25 finish.
Course history in YELLOW indicates a made cut with a finish outside of the top 25.
Course history in RED indicates a missed cut.
Legend
| Term | Description |
|---|---|
| Odds Diff | The percentage differential between a golfer’s salary rank and odds rank. The higher the %, the better. |
| OWGR | Official World Golf Ranking |
| Cuts | Cut record of each golfer at this course in the last five seasons. |
| 2012 – 2016 Columns | Course history at this event in the last five seasons. |