PGA First Look: The Masters

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2018-04-05 12:34:26

The PGA First Look is complete with a course preview, odds, salaries, Official World Golf Rankings, and course history.

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Event Preview

Hello friends and welcome to my Masters preview. This is my favorite golf week of the year and it’s not particularly close. There is something special about The Open on the other side of the pond, but there is nothing that compares to the feeling of Masters week. I’ve watched this event for as long as I can remember and this is the most anticipated Masters that I’ve been alive for. Tiger Woods is obviously grabbing a lot of headlines, but all of the other big names are rounding into form at the perfect time. This is truly an open event, as I could see 15 different golfers wearing the green jacket come Sunday night.

Let’s dive right into the course. Augusta National is a Par 72 that measures 7,435 yards. It is the most pristine golf course in the world. Every single blade of grass and every single pine needle is perfectly trimmed and in place. The flowers are blooming, the grass is greener than green, and the sand is so white that it hurts the eyes. This course is a true test of every facet of the game. You have to be dialed in off the tee, you have to be accurate with your irons, you have to have be creative and talented enough to pull off shots around the green, and you have to tame these lighting fast bentgrass greens. More than any other tournament on tour, course history is critical here at Augusta National.

You will hear many harp on short game at Augusta, but we’ve seen many bad putters perform well here year in and year out. While you have to chip and putt well to hoist the green jacket, this isn’t your average golf course. A golfer could be ranked first in strokes gained around the green or putting, but know nothing about the greens at Augusta. I am completely taking the short game statistics out of my model this week and will instead be focusing on experience. Golfers like Adam Scott and Hideki Matsuyama play well here every year, but aren’t historically good putters. They know the course, which in my opinion is more important than how well someone chipped at the Hyundai Tournament of Champions three months ago.

With experience being critical, you will hear the first-timer narrative all week. While I tend to agree that a winner is not going to come from a debutant, I disagree with the idea that we have to fade them completely. We’ve seen many golfers contend here (or at least outperform their salaries in DFS) in their first attempt. A few that stood out in the course history table below were Jordan Spieth (second), Thomas Pieters (fourth), and Daniel Berger (tenth). I’m not going to load up on first timers, but don’t be scared to get some exposure to a golfer like Tony Finau, who really sets up well for this golf course.

The preferred ball flight at Augusta is right-to-left, which is why we’ve seen so many lefties play well here over the years (Phil Mickelson, Bubba Watson, Mike Weir). It’s not a deal breaker to have a left-to-right ball flight, but the opposite is preferred. We’ve seen a few shorter hitters pop up on the leaderboard over the years, but for the most part this is a grip it and rip it type of course. The fairways are wide, the rough is short, and the pine straw isn’t too hard to hit out of if you don’t have a tree directly in front of you. Many golfers will hit driver off the tee on 13 of the 14 par fours and fives. Speaking of the par fives, you have to take advantage of these holes to contend. Nearly half of the scoring over the years has taken place on the par fives.

Enjoy this week because it only happens once a year. If you haven’t signed up for our premium content, we have some great tools and articles that are already posted for the Masters.

Cut Rule:We have a different cut rule this week. The top 50 and ties OR anyone within ten shots of the leader will make the cut. There is no secondary cut at Augusta.

Recent Winners of this Event:Sergio Garcia (2017), Danny Willett (2016), Jordan Spieth (2015), Bubba Watson (2014), Adam Scott (2013)

Key Statistics (In Order of Importance)

1) Strokes Gained Off the Tee
2) Strokes Gained Approach
3) Par 5 Scoring
4) Birdie or Better %
5) Driving Distance

Hole by Hole Breakdown

Salaries, Odds, and Course History (2013-2017)

Golfer	DK Salary	FD Salary	FDRFT Salary	OWGR	Odds	DK Odds	FD Odds	FDRFT Odds	2017	2016	2015	2014	2013
Dustin Johnson	$11,400	$12,000	$17,400	1	11	-300%	-300%	-33%	500	4	6	68	13
Justin Thomas	$10,800	$11,800	$17,500	2	11	-50%	-50%	-50%	22	39	500	500	500
Jordan Spieth	$10,400	$11,000	$16,800	4	10	67%	90%	80%	11	2	1	2	500
Tiger Woods	$10,000	$11,500	$16,500	103	13	-25%	-25%	29%	500	500	17	500	4
Rory McIlroy	$9,900	$11,700	$17,600	7	11	60%	33%	-100%	7	10	4	8	25
Jason Day	$9,800	$11,200	$16,300	11	18	-33%	0%	0%	22	10	28	20	3
Phil Mickelson	$9,500	$11,200	$16,000	18	18	-29%	-13%	0%	22	58	2	52	54
Jon Rahm	$9,300	$11,300	$15,900	3	23	-50%	-100%	-20%	27	500	500	500	500
Justin Rose	$9,200	$11,400	$16,900	5	14	33%	-20%	-50%	2	10	2	14	25
Rickie Fowler	$9,000	$10,800	$15,800	8	23	-10%	8%	0%	11	69	12	5	38
Paul Casey	$8,800	$10,900	$15,700	13	22	9%	9%	17%	6	4	6	500	500
Bubba Watson	$8,700	$10,300	$16,600	19	17	42%	61%	-17%	62	37	38	1	50
Sergio Garcia	$8,600	$11,300	$15,600	9	28	0%	-117%	0%	1	34	17	52	8
Tommy Fleetwood	$8,500	$10,600	$15,000	12	45	-21%	-13%	-13%	62	500	500	500	500
Hideki Matsuyama	$8,400	$10,700	$15,200	6	35	7%	-8%	0%	11	7	5	68	500
Thomas Pieters	$8,300	$9,400	$13,800	46	59	-44%	30%	8%	4	500	500	500	500
Marc Leishman	$8,200	$10,000	$14,300	16	54	-18%	9%	-5%	43	58	500	52	4
Alexander Noren	$8,100	$10,500	$14,700	15	44	11%	0%	6%	62	500	500	500	500
Adam Scott	$8,000	$10,400	$13,900	60	58	-11%	-24%	13%	9	42	38	14	1
Louis Oosthuizen	$7,900	$9,900	$14,200	31	60	-20%	0%	-20%	41	15	19	25	71
Henrik Stenson	$7,800	$10,700	$14,800	14	38	29%	-15%	6%	62	24	19	14	18
Patrick Reed	$7,700	$10,000	$14,500	24	51	14%	14%	-6%	71	49	22	72	500
Tyrrell Hatton	$7,700	$9,700	$14,000	17	69	-14%	7%	-9%	90	500	500	500	500
Matt Kuchar	$7,600	$9,500	$14,100	20	47	25%	42%	14%	4	24	46	5	8
Patrick Cantlay	$7,600	$9,300	$13,300	35	76	-13%	23%	4%	500	500	500	500	500
Ian Poulter	$7,600	$9,200	$14,100	29	59	8%	44%	-5%	500	49	6	20	72
Daniel Berger	$7,500	$9,600	$13,000	37	96	-19%	-10%	0%	27	10	500	500	500
Xander Schauffele	$7,500	$9,300	$13,400	26	89	-11%	14%	-11%	500	500	500	500	500
Brian Harman	$7,500	$10,100	$13,500	23	85	-4%	-33%	-8%	500	500	67	500	500
Tony Finau	$7,400	$9,900	$13,100	34	100	-10%	-38%	-6%	500	500	500	500	500
Branden Grace	$7,400	$10,200	$13,000	33	100	-13%	-79%	-6%	27	63	67	80	18
Charl Schwartzel	$7,400	$9,000	$12,800	58	102	-20%	20%	-3%	3	63	38	52	25
Rafael Cabrera-Bello	$7,300	$7,400	$13,200	22	100	-3%	51%	-13%	62	17	500	500	500
Webb Simpson	$7,300	$9,600	$11,900	41	160	-52%	-72%	-4%	62	29	28	52	62
Matthew Fitzpatrick	$7,300	$8,500	$12,700	38	123	-21%	26%	-11%	32	7	500	52	500
Gary Woodland	$7,200	$9,500	$12,400	32	131	-25%	-45%	-10%	81	500	56	26	500
Kevin Kisner	$7,200	$9,200	$12,600	25	124	-14%	-5%	-11%	43	37	500	500	500
Adam Hadwin	$7,200	$9,700	$12,200	43	126	-19%	-59%	2%	36	500	500	500	500
Hao-Tong Li	$7,200	$8,300	$11,600	42	202	-56%	3%	2%	500	500	500	500	500
Charley Hoffman	$7,100	$9,000	$12,900	28	90	23%	31%	9%	22	29	9	500	500
Russell Henley	$7,100	$8,900	$12,000	53	108	8%	21%	21%	11	500	21	31	81
Kiradech Aphibarnrat	$7,100	$8,400	$12,600	30	111	5%	32%	-3%	500	15	500	500	500
Shubhankar Sharma	$7,100	$8,000	$12,200	72	155	-23%	20%	-11%	500	500	500	500	500
Ryan Moore	$7,000	$9,100	$12,400	66	87	34%	33%	29%	9	78	12	52	38
Zach Johnson	$7,000	$9,800	$12,500	56	126	0%	-69%	-13%	54	63	9	63	35
Francesco Molinari	$7,000	$9,300	$11,900	27	153	-9%	-37%	0%	33	500	500	50	84
Patton Kizzire	$7,000	$8,600	$11,800	52	188	-25%	-6%	-8%	500	500	500	500	500
Ross Fisher	$7,000	$8,800	$11,700	36	178	-18%	-6%	4%	41	500	500	500	500
Bryson DeChambeau	$6,900	$9,200	$13,300	63	75	47%	33%	7%	500	21	500	500	500
Kevin Chappell	$6,900	$9,400	$12,300	39	111	20%	-18%	9%	7	500	500	500	500
Pat Perez	$6,900	$9,200	$12,100	21	141	6%	-18%	0%	18	500	500	500	500
Brendan Steele	$6,900	$8,900	$11,800	40	165	-4%	-9%	0%	27	500	500	500	500
Cameron Smith	$6,900	$8,700	$12,500	45	125	14%	16%	-8%	500	55	500	500	500
Martin Kaymer	$6,900	$8,700	$11,700	90	213	-16%	-14%	-6%	16	49	80	31	35
Jimmy Walker	$6,800	$9,100	$11,900	97	152	15%	-9%	2%	18	29	38	8	500
Kyle Stanley	$6,800	$8,300	$11,500	44	180	4%	9%	9%	500	500	500	500	500
Bernd Wiesberger	$6,800	$8,400	$11,200	57	257	-11%	-9%	-2%	43	34	22	500	500
Jason Dufner	$6,800	$9,300	$11,800	49	182	2%	-54%	-6%	33	69	49	85	20
Danny Willett	$6,800	$7,700	$11,100	296	288	-16%	2%	-5%	54	1	38	500	500
Austin Cook	$6,700	$8,500	$10,800	111	278	-3%	-15%	3%	500	500	500	500	500
Dylan Frittelli	$6,700	$7,900	$11,700	50	222	2%	5%	-9%	500	500	500	500	500
Si Woo Kim	$6,700	$8,100	$11,300	51	229	0%	0%	-2%	84	500	500	500	500
Fred Couples	$6,700	$7,900	$10,500	947	332	-10%	-6%	1%	18	500	89	20	13
Wesley Bryan	$6,700	$7,400	$10,600	92	365	-12%	3%	-2%	500	500	500	500	500
Yusaku Miyazato	$6,700	$7,300	$10,200	59	433	-15%	5%	4%	500	500	500	500	500
Chez Reavie	$6,600	$8,600	$10,900	47	220	12%	-12%	8%	500	500	500	500	500
Billy Horschel	$6,600	$7,500	$11,000	85	287	5%	6%	-2%	500	17	67	37	500
Jhonattan Vegas	$6,600	$7,500	$10,700	54	326	2%	3%	0%	78	500	500	500	500
Ted Potter	$6,600	$7,300	$10,400	80	411	-3%	7%	0%	500	500	500	500	62
Vijay Singh	$6,600	$7,200	$10,300	518	545	-12%	3%	-7%	71	69	54	37	38
Yuta Ikeda	$6,600	$7,400	$10,300	55	738	-14%	-9%	-9%	54	500	500	500	500
Joaquin Niemann	$6,500	$7,300	$10,200		469	0%	1%	0%	500	500	500	500	500
Satoshi Kodaira	$6,500	$7,800	$10,200	48	450	1%	-11%	1%	500	500	500	500	500
Doc Redman	$6,500	$7,400	$10,100		778	-6%	-10%	0%	500	500	500	500	500
Angel Cabrera	$6,400	$10,200		1114	433	7%	-268%		78	24	22	72	2
Doug Ghim	$6,400	$7,000	$10,000		1001	-3%	4%	0%	500	500	500	500	500
Bernhard Langer	$6,300	$7,600	$10,300		494	5%	-11%	-6%	71	24	56	8	25
Harry Ellis	$6,300	$7,100	$10,000		1031	-3%	-3%	-3%	500	500	500	500	500
Trevor Immelman	$6,200	$7,000	$10,200		1002	1%	3%	-8%	81	58	89	80	50
Yuxin Lin	$6,200	$7,000	$10,000		1598	-4%	-3%	-6%	500	500	500	500	500
Sandy Lyle	$6,100	$7,000	$10,000		2421	-5%	-6%	-10%	92	81	77	44	54
Matt Parziale	$6,100	$7,000	$10,000		1450	1%	0%	-4%	500	500	500	500	500
Mark O’Meara	$6,000	$7,000	$10,000		2263	-1%	-5%	-9%	84	81	22	72	72
Mike Weir	$6,000	$7,000	$10,000		1608	0%	-4%	-8%	81	77	96	44	72
Larry Mize	$6,000	$7,100	$10,000		2526	-4%	-12%	-12%	52	52	80	51	62
Jose Maria Olazabal	$6,000	$7,100	$10,000		1512	2%	-5%	-5%	71	500	77	34	50
Ian Woosnam	$6,000	$7,000	$10,000		3141	-5%	-9%	-13%	78	88	73	63	88

Color Coding
Course history in BLUE indicates a top ten finish.
Course history in GREEN indicates a top 25 finish.
Course history in YELLOW indicates a made cut with a finish outside of the top 25.
Course history in RED indicates a missed cut.

Legend