PGA First Look: The Northern Trust
The PGA First Look is complete with a course preview, odds, salaries, Official World Golf Rankings, and course history.
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Event Preview
The first leg of the FedEx Cup starts this week. To make it here, golfers had to finish inside the top 125 in the FedEx Cup standings. All but five of the top 125 will be in attendance this week. Rickie Fowler, Rory McIlroy, Henrik Stenson, Bud Cauley, and Patrick Rodgers have all withdrawn for different reasons. Luckily, none are included in the player pool, so we don’t have to worry about rostering an inactive golfer. If you aren’t familiar with the FedEx Cup, the top 100 after this week will move on to play the Dell Technologies Championship. Then the top 70 after that will play in the BMW Championship. And finally, the top 30 after that will play in the Tour Championship for the grand prize of $10,000,000, which is by far the biggest purse in golf.
This event rotates courses, which always brings a bit of volatility into predicting fantasy production. Ridgewood Country Club will be the host venue this season and it has hosted the event before (2014, 2010, and 2008). I hesitate to place much of an emphasis on course history this week. Not only are the results at this course ancient, but the course has changed since 2014. There was a renovation that added length to the course and made the greens significantly larger. The course will also feature holes from three different sets of nine holes on the property, which wasn’t the case the last time the venue hosted this event. I see course history as being more of a talking point than anything else this week. I’m not sure how much predictive value it offers.
This week’s course is a Par 71 that measures 7,385 yards. It features three par fives, all of which measure at least 588 yards. Only the longest hitters will be able to reach these greens in two. Not only are the par fives daunting, but five of the par fours measure at least 470 yards. The length of the course will give an advantage to distance off the tee, but only if golfers are able to hit the fairway. I’m seeing this as a classic U.S. Open type of course where the rough is penalizing. You don’t have to be a bomber to compete here, but I expect a longer hitter to end up winning. If you are able to hit driver and keep it in the fairway, you will have a huge advantage over the rest of the field.
In addition to the penalizing rough, the fairways are tree-lined and filled with strategically placed bunkers. They also narrow at just over 300 yards. It will be interesting to see how each golfer attacks the course. You’ll have bombers like Jon Rahm that try to overpower the course, while Tiger Woods may club down off the tee and lean on his long irons (at least that’s what I’m hoping). The greens are relatively small and are made of mostly Poa Annua grass. With thick rough and small greens, a good short game will be needed. I’m certainly not expecting a birdie fest. My guess for the winning score is somewhere in the low teens with a cut likely around even par. Speaking of the cut, at least 70 of the 120 golfers in the field will play the weekend, so it could be a good week to employ a stars and scrubs approach.
Cut Rule: Top 70 and ties move on after the first two rounds. There is no MDF in the FedEx Cup events.
Recent Winners of this Event: Hunter Mahan (2014), Matt Kuchar (2010), Vijay Singh (2008)
Key Statistics (In Order of Importance)
1) Strokes Gained Approach
2) Birdie or Better %
3) Strokes Gained Around the Green
4) Strokes Gained Putting
5) Par 4 Scoring
Hole by Hole Breakdown
Salaries, Odds, and Course History (2014, 2010, 2008)
| Golfer | DK Salary | FD Salary | FDRFT Salary | OWGR | Odds | DK Odds | FD Odds | FDRFT Odds | Cuts | 2014 | 2010 | 2008 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dustin Johnson | $11,500 | $12,400 | $18,000 | 1 | 8 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1/2 | 500 | 9 | 73 |
| Justin Thomas | $11,200 | $11,800 | $17,400 | 3 | 12 | 0% | 67% | 0% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Jason Day | $10,700 | $11,900 | $17,300 | 10 | 13 | -33% | 0% | -33% | 3/3 | 2 | 5 | 31 |
| Brooks Koepka | $10,500 | $12,300 | $17,300 | 2 | 12 | 25% | -50% | 0% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Tiger Woods | $10,100 | $11,900 | $16,800 | 26 | 15 | 0% | -25% | 0% | 1/1 | 500 | 12 | 500 |
| Justin Rose | $9,900 | $12,000 | $16,600 | 4 | 17 | 0% | -100% | 0% | 2/2 | 30 | 15 | 500 |
| Jon Rahm | $9,700 | $11,600 | $16,300 | 5 | 19 | 0% | 13% | 0% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Jordan Spieth | $9,600 | $11,700 | $16,200 | 8 | 19 | 0% | -14% | 0% | 1/1 | 22 | 500 | 500 |
| Francesco Molinari | $9,500 | $11,600 | $16,000 | 6 | 21 | 0% | -13% | 0% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | $9,400 | $11,400 | $15,700 | 11 | 28 | 0% | 9% | 0% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Webb Simpson | $9,200 | $11,500 | $15,400 | 16 | 33 | 0% | -10% | 0% | 1/2 | 99 | 36 | 500 |
| Brandt Snedeker | $9,000 | $10,300 | $14,900 | 50 | 42 | -17% | 22% | 0% | 1/3 | 80 | 83 | 68 |
| Adam Scott | $8,900 | $10,100 | $15,000 | 44 | 41 | 0% | 35% | -8% | 2/3 | 15 | 9 | 129 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | $8,800 | $10,900 | $14,800 | 20 | 45 | -14% | -23% | -7% | 1/1 | 30 | 500 | 500 |
| Zach Johnson | $8,700 | $9,900 | $14,500 | 47 | 50 | -27% | 17% | -12% | 2/3 | 22 | 21 | 92 |
| Patrick Cantlay | $8,600 | $9,800 | $15,000 | 24 | 40 | 25% | 52% | 0% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Tony Finau | $8,500 | $10,600 | $14,500 | 30 | 50 | -18% | -33% | -18% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Patrick Reed | $8,400 | $11,000 | $14,500 | 12 | 49 | 6% | -42% | 0% | 1/1 | 9 | 500 | 500 |
| Paul Casey | $8,300 | $10,700 | $14,300 | 15 | 49 | 5% | -29% | 10% | 3/3 | 22 | 12 | 7 |
| Matt Kuchar | $8,200 | $10,400 | $14,800 | 31 | 43 | 25% | 12% | 0% | 2/3 | 5 | 1 | 73 |
| Tyrrell Hatton | $8,100 | $9,100 | $14,000 | 23 | 64 | -10% | 36% | 0% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Bubba Watson | $8,000 | $10,000 | $14,000 | 14 | 65 | -14% | -19% | -9% | 3/3 | 30 | 31 | 12 |
| Rafael Cabrera-Bello | $7,900 | $10,500 | $13,900 | 29 | 67 | -22% | -75% | -4% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Alexander Noren | $7,900 | $9,800 | $14,000 | 13 | 64 | -4% | 4% | -4% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Marc Leishman | $7,800 | $9,300 | $14,200 | 18 | 63 | 12% | 27% | -5% | 1/2 | 108 | 36 | 500 |
| Xander Schauffele | $7,800 | $10,000 | $14,000 | 17 | 66 | -4% | -24% | -13% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Gary Woodland | $7,700 | $9,400 | $14,100 | 39 | 62 | 22% | 28% | 5% | 1/1 | 13 | 500 | 500 |
| Louis Oosthuizen | $7,700 | $9,500 | $13,900 | 35 | 67 | 0% | 4% | 0% | 0/1 | 89 | 500 | 500 |
| Kevin Na | $7,600 | $8,800 | $13,800 | 43 | 74 | -3% | 32% | -3% | 3/3 | 9 | 36 | 31 |
| Ian Poulter | $7,600 | $9,200 | $13,800 | 32 | 73 | 0% | 12% | 0% | 1/3 | 80 | 15 | 92 |
| Ryan Moore | $7,500 | $9,300 | $13,400 | 69 | 84 | -16% | -20% | -3% | 0/3 | 108 | 90 | 135 |
| Stewart Cink | $7,500 | $8,900 | $13,400 | 72 | 85 | -19% | 5% | -6% | 3/3 | 15 | 15 | 38 |
| Branden Grace | $7,500 | $9,700 | $13,500 | 37 | 81 | -13% | -30% | -6% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Bryson DeChambeau | $7,400 | $9,900 | $13,600 | 21 | 80 | 3% | -43% | -3% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Byeong-Hun An | $7,400 | $8,900 | $12,800 | 46 | 103 | -15% | 0% | 3% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Phil Mickelson | $7,300 | $10,200 | $13,400 | 22 | 80 | 6% | -79% | 3% | 2/3 | 78 | 100 | 19 |
| Billy Horschel | $7,300 | $8,400 | $13,500 | 92 | 78 | 11% | 36% | 3% | 0/1 | 99 | 500 | 500 |
| Kyle Stanley | $7,300 | $8,400 | $13,400 | 28 | 86 | -6% | 24% | -9% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Kevin Kisner | $7,300 | $8,900 | $13,700 | 27 | 75 | 14% | 21% | 0% | 0/1 | 89 | 500 | 500 |
| Luke List | $7,200 | $8,200 | $12,500 | 51 | 122 | -15% | 19% | 6% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Jimmy Walker | $7,200 | $9,000 | $12,200 | 73 | 136 | -28% | -38% | 0% | 1/2 | 89 | 52 | 500 |
| Aaron Wise | $7,200 | $7,100 | $12,200 | 68 | 145 | -40% | 45% | -10% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Pat Perez | $7,200 | $8,700 | $12,200 | 41 | 142 | -35% | -17% | -6% | 1/3 | 113 | 60 | 123 |
| Russell Knox | $7,200 | $8,800 | $12,600 | 56 | 118 | -13% | -2% | -5% | 1/1 | 38 | 500 | 500 |
| Charl Schwartzel | $7,200 | $8,200 | $12,700 | 55 | 117 | -10% | 23% | -5% | 1/1 | 30 | 500 | 500 |
| Russell Henley | $7,100 | $8,600 | $12,600 | 57 | 116 | 9% | 11% | 2% | 1/1 | 61 | 500 | 500 |
| Brian Gay | $7,100 | $8,000 | $12,100 | 103 | 154 | -33% | 6% | -9% | 1/2 | 500 | 21 | 92 |
| Charles Howell | $7,100 | $8,900 | $12,200 | 74 | 138 | -13% | -33% | -2% | 1/3 | 22 | 83 | 92 |
| Jason Kokrak | $7,100 | $7,700 | $12,100 | 111 | 151 | -26% | 21% | -4% | 1/1 | 61 | 500 | 500 |
| Kevin Tway | $7,100 | $8,100 | $12,000 | 130 | 174 | -52% | -15% | -13% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Jamie Lovemark | $7,100 | $8,200 | $12,000 | 108 | 161 | -41% | -14% | -5% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Cheng-Tsung Pan | $7,000 | $8,100 | $12,600 | 134 | 125 | 8% | 21% | -12% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Keegan Bradley | $7,000 | $9,200 | $12,800 | 67 | 106 | 21% | -24% | -3% | 1/1 | 53 | 500 | 500 |
| Daniel Berger | $7,000 | $9,300 | $12,900 | 45 | 104 | 23% | -33% | -3% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Emiliano Grillo | $7,000 | $8,300 | $12,600 | 64 | 124 | 10% | 13% | -9% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| J.J. Spaun | $7,000 | $7,500 | $11,800 | 127 | 186 | -42% | 9% | -4% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Rory Sabbatini | $7,000 | $7,500 | $11,700 | 162 | 199 | -52% | 2% | -7% | 2/3 | 121 | 5 | 24 |
| Danny Lee | $7,000 | $7,900 | $12,000 | 122 | 158 | -21% | 6% | -2% | 1/1 | 38 | 500 | 500 |
| Kevin Chappell | $6,900 | $9,200 | $12,600 | 54 | 128 | 17% | -48% | -14% | 1/1 | 30 | 500 | 500 |
| Kevin Streelman | $6,900 | $7,300 | $12,100 | 136 | 143 | 7% | 39% | 2% | 3/3 | 46 | 3 | 4 |
| Harold Varner | $6,900 | $7,600 | $12,000 | 169 | 174 | -19% | 9% | -13% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Cameron Smith | $6,900 | $7,900 | $11,700 | 49 | 191 | -27% | -12% | -1% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Ryan Palmer | $6,900 | $7,700 | $11,700 | 138 | 208 | -41% | -14% | -12% | 3/3 | 74 | 5 | 62 |
| Peter Uihlein | $6,900 | $8,200 | $11,700 | 66 | 192 | -29% | -33% | -3% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Jason Dufner | $6,900 | $8,400 | $12,100 | 65 | 151 | 3% | -14% | -2% | 0/1 | 500 | 112 | 500 |
| Harris English | $6,900 | $7,300 | $11,300 | 255 | 229 | -46% | 4% | 0% | 0/1 | 99 | 500 | 500 |
| Chris Kirk | $6,800 | $8,500 | $12,300 | 123 | 135 | 25% | -4% | 0% | 1/1 | 53 | 500 | 500 |
| Joel Dahmen | $6,800 | $7,500 | $12,100 | 178 | 162 | 0% | 17% | -20% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Charley Hoffman | $6,800 | $9,000 | $12,600 | 36 | 117 | 36% | -16% | 0% | 3/3 | 30 | 27 | 38 |
| Austin Cook | $6,800 | $7,800 | $12,100 | 99 | 154 | 7% | 13% | -11% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Chesson Hadley | $6,800 | $8,500 | $12,000 | 71 | 161 | 3% | -35% | -5% | 1/1 | 70 | 500 | 500 |
| Martin Laird | $6,800 | $8,100 | $12,200 | 150 | 152 | 12% | 3% | -16% | 2/2 | 500 | 2 | 7 |
| Chez Reavie | $6,800 | $7,800 | $11,700 | 59 | 200 | -19% | -13% | -8% | 0/1 | 500 | 500 | 107 |
| Sam Saunders | $6,800 | $7,300 | $11,200 | 175 | 268 | -40% | -4% | -6% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Abraham Ancer | $6,700 | $7,900 | $12,000 | 142 | 142 | 29% | 21% | 15% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Troy Merritt | $6,700 | $7,000 | $11,000 | 177 | 265 | -20% | 17% | 2% | 1/1 | 46 | 500 | 500 |
| J.B. Holmes | $6,700 | $7,900 | $12,000 | 88 | 160 | 15% | 4% | -3% | 1/3 | 113 | 73 | 24 |
| Brendan Steele | $6,700 | $8,300 | $11,700 | 70 | 193 | -3% | -43% | -4% | 1/1 | 57 | 500 | 500 |
| Bronson Burgoon | $6,700 | $7,000 | $11,200 | 212 | 263 | -19% | 18% | 0% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Tyler Duncan | $6,700 | $7,000 | $10,900 | 303 | 319 | -40% | 4% | -9% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Andrew Landry | $6,700 | $7,100 | $11,000 | 77 | 267 | -24% | 9% | -1% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Beau Hossler | $6,600 | $8,400 | $12,000 | 75 | 152 | 28% | -18% | 5% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Andrew Putnam | $6,600 | $7,700 | $11,800 | 89 | 164 | 17% | 7% | 4% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Ollie Schniederjans | $6,600 | $8,000 | $11,700 | 106 | 208 | -1% | -28% | -12% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Sam Ryder | $6,600 | $7,200 | $10,900 | 201 | 308 | -22% | -4% | -4% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| John Huh | $6,600 | $7,000 | $10,700 | 235 | 353 | -35% | -2% | -3% | 1/1 | 38 | 500 | 500 |
| Grayson Murray | $6,600 | $7,100 | $10,800 | 161 | 303 | -20% | 4% | 4% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| James Hahn | $6,600 | $7,500 | $10,800 | 101 | 321 | -29% | -31% | -4% | 0/1 | 99 | 500 | 500 |
| Brian Harman | $6,500 | $8,900 | $11,800 | 34 | 168 | 22% | -77% | 3% | 1/1 | 57 | 500 | 500 |
| Anirban Lahiri | $6,500 | $7,600 | $11,700 | 98 | 206 | 8% | -6% | -11% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| William McGirt | $6,500 | $7,700 | $11,700 | 179 | 209 | 4% | -16% | -15% | 1/1 | 5 | 500 | 500 |
| Ryan Armour | $6,500 | $7,400 | $11,700 | 102 | 182 | 18% | 16% | 1% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Alex Cejka | $6,500 | $7,000 | $10,800 | 257 | 331 | -22% | 0% | -7% | 0/1 | 500 | 107 | 500 |
| Si Woo Kim | $6,500 | $8,100 | $11,900 | 52 | 176 | 19% | -18% | -3% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Ted Potter | $6,500 | $7,200 | $10,400 | 96 | 358 | -26% | -17% | 3% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Seamus Power | $6,500 | $7,000 | $10,600 | 329 | 360 | -27% | -4% | -4% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Nick Watney | $6,400 | $7,600 | $11,300 | 120 | 250 | 9% | -14% | -2% | 2/3 | 89 | 36 | 62 |
| Tom Hoge | $6,400 | $7,200 | $10,900 | 197 | 312 | -5% | -6% | -6% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Michael Kim | $6,400 | $7,400 | $11,300 | 203 | 247 | 10% | 0% | -1% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Scott Piercy | $6,400 | $7,500 | $11,200 | 239 | 265 | 5% | -14% | -3% | 0/1 | 500 | 73 | 500 |
| Nick Taylor | $6,400 | $7,300 | $10,800 | 246 | 315 | -7% | -16% | -2% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Jhonattan Vegas | $6,400 | $7,300 | $11,000 | 87 | 265 | 7% | 0% | 2% | 1/1 | 66 | 500 | 500 |
| Brice Garnett | $6,400 | $7,500 | $10,800 | 143 | 271 | 2% | -17% | 7% | 0/1 | 120 | 500 | 500 |
| Scott Brown | $6,400 | $7,300 | $10,600 | 189 | 329 | -11% | -20% | 1% | 0/1 | 99 | 500 | 500 |
| Keith Mitchell | $6,300 | $7,600 | $11,700 | 145 | 199 | 26% | -1% | -5% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Adam Hadwin | $6,300 | $8,300 | $11,500 | 63 | 203 | 23% | -50% | 5% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Scott Stallings | $6,300 | $7,200 | $10,800 | 167 | 312 | 3% | -6% | 0% | 0/1 | 89 | 500 | 500 |
| Ryan Blaum | $6,300 | $7,200 | $10,900 | 247 | 297 | 8% | -1% | -1% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Brandon Harkins | $6,300 | $7,000 | $10,400 | 223 | 381 | -10% | -6% | -1% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Patton Kizzire | $6,300 | $7,000 | $10,600 | 84 | 364 | -9% | -5% | -5% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Trey Mullinax | $6,300 | $7,100 | $10,900 | 190 | 311 | 4% | 1% | -5% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Richy Werenski | $6,200 | $7,100 | $10,900 | 182 | 307 | 12% | 3% | -3% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Whee Kim | $6,200 | $7,000 | $11,000 | 105 | 294 | 14% | 12% | -4% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Vaughn Taylor | $6,200 | $7,100 | $10,600 | 243 | 322 | 4% | -5% | 2% | 1/2 | 500 | 5 | 123 |
| JT Poston | $6,200 | $7,000 | $10,500 | 279 | 364 | -2% | -5% | -1% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Kelly Kraft | $6,200 | $7,000 | $10,400 | 140 | 383 | -4% | -7% | -2% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Sung Kang | $6,200 | $7,100 | $10,400 | 128 | 350 | 2% | -8% | 4% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Brian Stuard | $6,200 | $7,000 | $10,300 | 298 | 494 | -7% | -10% | 0% | 1/1 | 74 | 500 | 500 |
| Sean O’Hair | $6,200 | $7,200 | $10,400 | 137 | 425 | -6% | -24% | -3% | 1/2 | 500 | 31 | 73 |
| Satoshi Kodaira | $6,200 | $7,400 | $10,500 | 40 | 403 | -5% | -36% | -4% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
Color Coding
Course history in BLUE indicates a top ten finish.
Course history in GREEN indicates a top 25 finish.
Course history in YELLOW indicates a made cut with a finish outside of the top 25.
Course history in RED indicates a missed cut.
Legend
| Term | Description |
|---|---|
| Site Odds | The percentage differential between a golfer’s salary rank and odds rank. The higher the %, the better. |
| OWGR | Official World Golf Ranking |
| Cuts | Cut record of each golfer at this course in the last five seasons. |
| 2013 – 2017 Columns | Course history at this event in the last five seasons. |