PGA First Look: The Open Championship

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2018-07-19 12:34:43

The PGA First Look is complete with a course preview, odds, salaries, Official World Golf Rankings, and course history.

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Event Preview

Each of the four majors is special. We start with The Masters in April, then we get the two Opens in the summer, and we finally close with the PGA Championship in August. I love watching links golf and I love sweating my lineups in the middle of the night, so the Open Championship would be a close second to The Masters if I had to rank my favorites. This will be the 147th Open Championship (crazy, right?) and will be hosted at Carnoustie Golf Links. This course is no stranger to the Open Championship, although this is the first time it has hosted the event since 2007. That year, Padraig Harrington completed an epic comeback to beat out Sergio Garcia (one of his many bad beats in majors before finally breaking through at Augusta National last year). Before we get into the course breakdown, keep in mind that the weather at an Open Championship can change at any moment. With the course being located on the Eastern coast of Scotland beside the North Sea, we may see completely different weather than forecasted. If you are mass multi-entering tournaments this week, I highly recommend building tee time stacks, even if there doesn’t appear to be an advantage for one side or the other.

Carnoustie is an extremely tough test of golf, so much so that golfers have nicknamed the course “Carnasty.” It isn’t your average Par 71, as it only features two par fives and three par threes. Most courses features 12 par fours at most, but Carnoustie has 13 of them — seven of which measure at least 460 yards. In total, the course measures 7,402 yards, which is the longest Open Championship venue currently in rotation. In addition to the length and wind, the course is full of treacherous road blocks. Out of bounds is in play on a number of holes, the fairways are incredibly tight (22 to 26 yards wide), the rough can get up to two feet high if you miss wildly enough off the tee, and there are pot bunkers that pepper the fairways and landing areas. The final three-hole stretch is incredibly tough and brings water into play on five different shots (Barry Burn). Many say that Carnoustie is the toughest Open Championship venue in the world. If the wind picks up, we are going to see some ridiculous scores.

Major championships typically produce the “best” winner, but links golf is full of on-course variance. You can get a bounce bad, you can get a bad lie, you can hit a great drive that lands in a pot bunker, and you can hit a shot right when the wind gusts. Compared to most events that we see on the PGA Tour, luck will play a bigger role this week at Carnoustie. As far as how the course will play, it is extremely dry and firm. If you’ve seen any pictures from the practice rounds, the grass is basically brown with green patches here and there. Reports say that there hasn’t been much rain in the last two months. In fact, the course is so firm that Brandt Snedeker (one of the shortest hitters on tour) hit a 427-yard drive in a practice round. After playing a few rounds here last month, Phil Mickelson said that he may play without a driver in the bag.

When you first see the length of the course, you immediately want to target the bombers. However, with the fairways being so dry and with them being narrow to begin with, I’m not going to play the bomber angle. A strong tee to green game is important, but relying on statistics from the PGA Tour might be a little misleading. This is a links course with conditions that most of the PGA Tour golfers won’t see again the rest of the year. The greens here are surrounded by tightly mown collection areas, so being able to scramble will be crucial. In fact, the top five finishers here in 1999 and in 2007 all finished inside the top 15 for scrambling that week. I’m looking for golfers with a great short game that are in form and have experience at the Open Championship (preferably at least one top ten on their resume). Staying patient and embracing the conditions could play a pivotal role, as you are bound to have some bad breaks here and there.

Bookmark this Windfinder page and check it often.

Cut Rule: Top 70 and ties move on after the first two rounds. There is no MDF this week.

Recent Winners of this Event: Jordan Spieth (2017), Henrik Stenson (2016), Zach Johnson (2015), Rory McIlroy (2014), Phil Mickelson (2013)

Key Statistics (In Order of Importance)

1) Strokes Gained Tee to Green
2) Strokes Gained Around the Green
3) Par 4 Scoring
4) Bogey Avoidance
5) Birdie or Better %

Hole by Hole Breakdown

Salaries, Odds, and Open Championship History (2013-2017)

Golfer	DK Salary	FD Salary	FDRFT Salary	OWGR	Odds	DK Odds	FD Odds	FDRFT Odds	Cuts	2017	2016	2015	2014	2013
Dustin Johnson	$11,300	$12,500	$17,300	1	12	0%	0%	0%	5/5	54	9	49	12	32
Rory McIlroy	$11,000	$11,500	$16,700	8	15	0%	71%	50%	3/4	4	5	500	1	116
Jordan Spieth	$10,600	$11,100	$16,200	6	17	-67%	55%	17%	5/5	1	30	4	36	44
Justin Rose	$10,200	$12,200	$16,900	3	15	25%	-50%	-50%	4/5	54	22	6	23	97
Justin Thomas	$10,000	$11,700	$16,000	2	22	-80%	-125%	-13%	1/2	89	53	500	500	500
Jon Rahm	$9,800	$11,300	$16,300	5	20	-33%	20%	-60%	2/2	44	59	500	500	500
Rickie Fowler	$9,700	$11,400	$16,800	7	16	43%	50%	-33%	4/5	22	46	30	2	116
Tommy Fleetwood	$9,400	$10,900	$16,100	10	19	25%	54%	14%	1/4	27	101	81	116	500
Brooks Koepka	$9,200	$12,100	$16,000	4	19	22%	-133%	13%	3/4	6	500	10	67	132
Sergio Garcia	$9,000	$10,100	$15,700	19	28	-20%	48%	0%	5/5	37	5	6	2	21
Tiger Woods	$8,900	$10,800	$15,900	71	24	9%	29%	0%	2/3	500	500	147	69	6
Jason Day	$8,800	$11,700	$15,600	9	28	-8%	-225%	7%	5/5	27	22	4	58	32
Paul Casey	$8,700	$11,000	$15,200	14	31	-15%	-25%	6%	3/4	11	122	74	47	500
Francesco Molinari	$8,600	$10,400	$15,700	15	29	0%	22%	-17%	4/5	89	36	40	15	9
Hideki Matsuyama	$8,500	$10,500	$14,900	16	42	-40%	-24%	-5%	4/5	14	111	18	39	6
Patrick Reed	$8,400	$11,400	$15,200	12	34	-13%	-125%	-13%	2/4	99	12	20	110	500
Alexander Noren	$8,300	$9,800	$15,600	11	31	6%	41%	-14%	2/2	6	46	500	500	500
Henrik Stenson	$8,200	$11,600	$15,800	17	26	39%	-83%	0%	5/5	11	1	40	39	2
Phil Mickelson	$8,100	$10,300	$14,400	20	54	-16%	-10%	0%	4/5	123	2	20	23	1
Marc Leishman	$8,000	$9,800	$14,900	18	41	0%	26%	0%	4/5	6	53	2	5	85
Branden Grace	$7,900	$10,000	$15,000	35	39	10%	21%	0%	5/5	6	72	20	36	64
Tyrrell Hatton	$7,900	$8,900	$15,100	23	34	19%	61%	6%	1/5	131	5	93	131	150
Ian Poulter	$7,800	$9,400	$14,200	29	58	0%	28%	4%	2/4	14	500	107	73	3
Adam Scott	$7,800	$9,400	$13,400	82	78	-39%	0%	-3%	5/5	22	43	10	5	3
Bubba Watson	$7,800	$10,700	$13,900	13	72	-26%	-93%	-7%	3/5	27	39	107	89	32
Louis Oosthuizen	$7,700	$9,900	$13,700	32	61	0%	-4%	7%	2/4	137	143	2	36	500
Matt Kuchar	$7,700	$10,400	$13,600	27	65	-4%	-50%	7%	5/5	2	46	58	54	15
Russell Knox	$7,700	$9,000	$14,200	49	61	4%	39%	-4%	1/3	89	30	93	500	500
Bryson DeChambeau	$7,600	$10,200	$13,200	22	80	-14%	-57%	3%	0/1	148	500	500	500	500
Rafael Cabrera-Bello	$7,600	$9,900	$13,100	25	76	-3%	-20%	14%	4/5	4	39	40	73	21
Thomas Pieters	$7,600	$8,800	$13,500	69	82	-17%	31%	-13%	2/2	44	30	500	500	500
Matthew Fitzpatrick	$7,600	$9,100	$14,300	39	58	21%	39%	0%	2/3	44	138	500	500	44
Patrick Cantlay	$7,500	$9,500	$12,900	28	97	-18%	-26%	-5%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Luke List	$7,500	$8,300	$12,600	47	109	-39%	29%	-2%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Shane Lowry	$7,500	$8,100	$12,600	90	95	-12%	47%	18%	2/5	123	101	81	9	32
Xander Schauffele	$7,400	$9,300	$12,900	24	99	-11%	-18%	-8%	1/1	20	500	500	500	500
Martin Kaymer	$7,400	$7,900	$12,200	119	130	-50%	27%	0%	5/5	37	36	12	70	32
Paul Dunne	$7,400	$7,500	$12,600	76	109	-28%	47%	-2%	1/3	500	147	30	89	500
Brandt Snedeker	$7,300	$9,200	$12,800	89	101	-5%	-17%	0%	3/4	500	22	93	58	11
Daniel Berger	$7,300	$9,600	$12,400	40	122	-31%	-70%	0%	1/2	27	500	127	500	500
Kiradech Aphibarnrat	$7,300	$9,100	$12,200	30	120	-28%	-32%	7%	0/4	500	101	118	73	140
Chris Wood	$7,300	$7,700	$12,900	94	104	-8%	48%	-14%	3/3	14	500	500	23	64
Hao-Tong Li	$7,300	$8,300	$12,600	42	107	-15%	31%	0%	1/1	3	500	500	500	500
Tony Finau	$7,200	$10,200	$13,300	31	77	30%	-48%	6%	2/2	27	18	500	500	500
Zach Johnson	$7,200	$9,700	$14,000	52	70	36%	3%	-8%	5/5	14	12	1	47	6
Webb Simpson	$7,200	$10,600	$12,700	21	104	5%	-163%	2%	4/5	37	39	40	137	64
Andy Sullivan	$7,200	$8,000	$12,900	102	97	14%	47%	-3%	3/3	70	12	30	500	500
Lee Westwood	$7,200	$8,700	$13,400	112	88	18%	29%	-16%	4/5	27	22	49	73	3
Thorbjorn Olesen	$7,200	$7,800	$13,100	64	88	20%	55%	0%	2/4	62	122	500	64	116
Danny Willett	$7,200	$7,100	$12,500	320	117	-11%	55%	0%	4/5	76	53	6	89	15
Jorge Campillo	$7,200	$7,200	$11,700	70	174	-70%	26%	3%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Keegan Bradley	$7,100	$8,600	$12,200	77	141	-19%	-13%	-15%	3/4	500	18	107	19	15
Byeong-Hun An	$7,100	$8,500	$12,200	59	136	-12%	2%	-7%	2/4	99	59	93	26	500
Brian Harman	$7,100	$9,200	$12,200	26	136	-13%	-69%	-9%	1/3	99	500	81	26	500
Kevin Chappell	$7,100	$9,000	$11,700	61	198	-58%	-100%	-6%	1/2	99	53	500	500	500
Ross Fisher	$7,100	$7,900	$12,100	45	144	-23%	14%	0%	2/4	44	101	68	89	500
Jordan L. Smith	$7,100	$7,500	$12,100	129	300	-94%	-16%	-58%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Matt Wallace	$7,100	$7,600	$11,900	73	172	-42%	11%	0%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Padraig Harrington	$7,100	$7,100	$12,200	298	148	-31%	37%	-26%	3/5	78	36	20	131	54
Kevin Na	$7,000	$8,700	$12,200	41	139	0%	-18%	-11%	4/4	44	22	58	54	500
Peter Uihlein	$7,000	$8,900	$12,500	55	130	12%	-20%	-8%	1/2	44	500	500	148	500
Gary Woodland	$7,000	$8,900	$12,100	43	152	-15%	-57%	-8%	4/4	70	12	58	39	500
Charley Hoffman	$7,000	$8,900	$12,200	34	133	5%	-30%	-6%	3/4	20	77	138	67	500
Eddie Pepperell	$7,000	$7,400	$12,400	72	131	8%	40%	-8%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Charl Schwartzel	$7,000	$8,600	$12,200	46	132	7%	-2%	-4%	5/5	62	18	68	7	15
Pat Perez	$7,000	$8,500	$11,400	37	217	-42%	-44%	4%	0/1	113	500	500	500	500
Adam Hadwin	$7,000	$8,500	$11,600	53	210	-38%	-41%	1%	0/1	148	500	500	500	500
Julian Suri	$7,000	$8,200	$11,700	67	184	-28%	-15%	0%	0/1	78	500	500	500	500
Russell Henley	$6,900	$9,000	$12,400	48	127	25%	-27%	-2%	3/5	37	111	20	143	73
Ryan Fox	$6,900	$7,500	$12,800	84	106	36%	49%	-7%	1/2	78	500	49	500	500
Matthew Southgate	$6,900	$7,700	$12,700	159	113	30%	40%	-12%	2/3	6	12	500	148	500
Beau Hossler	$6,900	$8,500	$12,100	65	156	-1%	-19%	-9%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Chesson Hadley	$6,900	$8,900	$11,800	62	181	-10%	-73%	0%	0/1	500	500	500	121	500
Jimmy Walker	$6,900	$9,100	$12,000	66	164	-4%	-89%	-3%	3/5	54	130	30	26	85
Kyle Stanley	$6,900	$8,700	$12,000	38	170	-6%	-43%	-4%	0/2	99	500	500	500	85
Jason Dufner	$6,900	$8,600	$12,100	51	147	3%	-22%	-5%	5/5	14	22	58	51	26
Cameron Smith	$6,900	$7,900	$11,700	44	195	-16%	-8%	-4%	0/1	113	500	500	500	500
Kevin Kisner	$6,900	$8,200	$11,500	33	220	-26%	-30%	0%	2/3	54	76	81	500	500
Brandon Stone	$6,900	$7,600	$11,700	110	189	-13%	6%	-1%	1/2	70	122	500	500	500
Emiliano Grillo	$6,800	$8,700	$11,900	54	145	19%	-27%	12%	1/2	113	12	500	500	500
Anirban Lahiri	$6,800	$8,200	$11,700	104	197	-1%	-21%	-5%	2/4	78	68	30	116	500
Alexander Bjork	$6,800	$7,300	$12,200	68	140	24%	36%	-13%	0/1	99	500	500	500	500
Dylan Frittelli	$6,800	$8,100	$12,000	58	147	18%	6%	6%	0/1	99	500	500	500	500
Brendan Steele	$6,800	$8,800	$11,200	56	248	-16%	-90%	1%	0/3	148	101	500	140	500
Shubhankar Sharma	$6,800	$7,800	$11,200	87	256	-19%	-22%	-1%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Nicolas Colsaerts	$6,800	$7,400	$11,300	156	236	-14%	0%	0%	1/2	500	46	500	500	85
Alexander Levy	$6,800	$7,900	$11,500	63	222	-10%	-19%	-1%	0/2	78	500	81	500	500
Hideto Tanihara	$6,800	$7,300	$10,900	146	296	-25%	-4%	-4%	0/2	137	122	500	500	500
Michael Kim	$6,800	$7,100	$10,900	215	271	-20%	11%	0%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Marcus Kinhult	$6,800	$7,100	$10,900	154	280	-21%	10%	-1%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Ryan Moore	$6,700	$8,600	$12,100	81	142	31%	-15%	2%	3/5	99	46	107	12	32
Charles Howell	$6,700	$9,200	$11,700	60	189	13%	-126%	-3%	0/1	113	500	500	500	500
Chez Reavie	$6,700	$7,700	$11,300	57	245	-1%	-15%	-1%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
George Coetzee	$6,700	$7,200	$11,600	113	213	8%	17%	0%	2/4	500	82	107	18	71
Erik Van Rooyen	$6,700	$7,000	$11,600	144	218	5%	26%	-2%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Patton Kizzire	$6,700	$7,400	$10,400	78	398	-27%	-27%	-4%	1/1	500	68	500	500	500
Jhonattan Vegas	$6,700	$7,600	$10,900	80	305	-12%	-23%	-6%	0/1	131	500	500	500	500
Jens Dantorp	$6,700	$7,000	$10,900	208	310	-13%	11%	-7%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Yuta Ikeda	$6,700	$7,200	$10,700	93	334	-16%	-5%	-1%	1/3	123	72	118	500	500
Sang-hyun Park	$6,700	$7,000	$10,300	143	469	-36%	-7%	-2%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Stewart Cink	$6,600	$8,000	$12,000	101	160	30%	1%	-1%	3/4	123	500	20	47	26
Austin Cook	$6,600	$7,600	$11,400	100	233	12%	-8%	-1%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Ryan Armour	$6,600	$7,200	$10,500	105	359	-8%	-9%	-1%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Kelly Kraft	$6,600	$7,200	$10,400	126	430	-18%	-19%	-7%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Zander Lombard	$6,600	$7,000	$10,400	444	425	-16%	-2%	-5%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Kodai Ichihara	$6,600	$7,000	$10,200	375	611	-32%	-16%	-2%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Satoshi Kodaira	$6,600	$7,400	$10,700	36	332	-3%	-15%	0%	0/2	500	138	500	500	150
Yusaku Miyazato	$6,600	$7,000	$10,500	74	377	-11%	3%	-4%	0/3	137	111	500	110	500
Ryuko Tokimatsu	$6,600	$7,100	$10,300	106	486	-24%	-17%	-4%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Matt Jones	$6,500	$7,100	$10,800	277	330	6%	4%	-1%	3/3	500	39	30	54	500
Retief Goosen	$6,500	$7,400	$10,900	309	293	11%	-9%	-3%	1/1	500	500	20	500	500
Si Woo Kim	$6,500	$8,400	$11,300	50	230	20%	-41%	2%	0/1	78	500	500	500	500
Scott Jamieson	$6,500	$7,000	$10,400	186	393	-4%	1%	-3%	0/2	500	500	500	140	132
Jason Kokrak	$6,500	$7,200	$10,900	122	281	12%	3%	-2%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Abraham Ancer	$6,500	$7,300	$10,400	178	425	-6%	-23%	-5%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Cameron Davis	$6,500	$7,500	$10,800	128	336	4%	-23%	-4%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Grant Forrest	$6,500	$7,000	$10,300	267	491	-14%	-9%	-5%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Jonas Blixt	$6,500	$7,000	$10,700	282	350	3%	7%	-3%	1/3	500	500	93	116	26
Ernie Els	$6,500	$7,000	$10,300	774	443	-10%	-5%	-1%	3/5	61	82	65	131	26
Fabrizio Zanotti	$6,400	$7,300	$10,400	148	355	10%	-14%	3%	0/1	89	500	500	500	500
Jazz Janewattananond	$6,400	$7,000	$10,300	130	477	-3%	-8%	-3%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Bernhard Langer	$6,400	$7,200	$10,400	1122	389	6%	-13%	-2%	1/1	500	500	78	500	500
Lucas Herbert	$6,400	$7,000	$10,300	177	518	-9%	-14%	-9%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Jack Senior	$6,400	$7,000	$10,200	593	616	-12%	-17%	-2%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Michael Hendry	$6,400	$7,000	$10,300	228	509	-8%	-13%	-8%	0/1	123	500	500	500	500
Gavin Green	$6,400	$7,000	$10,300	203	457	-2%	-6%	-2%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Minchel Choi	$6,400	$7,000	$10,300	310	693	-14%	-19%	-14%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Yuxin Lin	$6,400	$7,000	$10,100		900	-19%	-24%	-4%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Bronson Burgoon	$6,300	$7,000	$10,600	201	364	15%	4%	-3%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Shaun Norris	$6,300	$7,100	$10,500	125	373	14%	-4%	-3%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Shota Akiyoshi	$6,300	$7,000	$10,300	121	491	2%	-9%	-5%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Sung Kang	$6,300	$7,100	$10,400	117	431	7%	-12%	-8%	1/1	44	500	500	500	500
Tom Lewis	$6,300	$7,000	$10,400	419	416	10%	-1%	-4%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Darren Clarke	$6,300	$7,300	$10,100		745	-8%	-46%	-1%	3/5	99	30	93	26	21
John Daly	$6,300	$7,000			500	1%	-11%		0/4	137	122	81	89	500
Sean Crocker	$6,300	$7,000	$10,300	460	502	0%	-12%	-7%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Danthai Boonma	$6,300	$7,000	$10,300	293	545	-2%	-15%	-10%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Rhys Enoch	$6,200	$7,000	$10,100	435	980	-6%	-28%	-7%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Tom Lehman	$6,200	$7,000	$10,100		957	-6%	-27%	-7%	1/3	99	500	118	500	58
Masahiro Kawamura	$6,200	$7,000	$10,100	509	860	-3%	-23%	-4%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Oliver Wilson	$6,200	$7,000	$10,100		775	-1%	-22%	-2%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Brett Rumford	$6,200	$7,000	$10,200	393	564	4%	-16%	-1%	1/3	500	500	74	89	132
Brady Schnell	$6,200	$7,000	$10,200	306	630	1%	-18%	-3%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Nicolai Hojgaard	$6,200	$7,000	$10,200	1039	706	0%	-20%	-5%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Jovan Rebula	$6,200	$7,000	$10,100		812	-2%	-22%	-3%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Marcus Armitage	$6,200	$7,000	$10,100	507	923	-4%	-25%	-5%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Masanori Kobayashi	$6,100	$7,000	$10,100	890	945	1%	-26%	-6%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Mark Calcavecchia	$6,100	$7,000	$10,100		1193	-5%	-34%	-12%	0/3	500	89	153	500	97
Sandy Lyle	$6,100	$7,000	$10,100		1364	-6%	-35%	-14%	1/5	148	154	107	154	84
Todd Hamilton	$6,100	$7,000	$10,000		1068	-1%	-29%	3%	1/5	156	89	147	121	73
David Duval	$6,100	$7,000	$10,100		1341	-5%	-34%	-13%	1/4	131	500	49	131	126
Thomas Curtis	$6,100	$7,000	$10,100		1000	-1%	-28%	-8%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
James Robinson	$6,100	$7,000	$10,100		1095	-2%	-30%	-9%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Sam Locke	$6,100	$7,000	$10,100		1095	-2%	-30%	-9%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Ashton Turner	$6,100	$7,000	$10,100		1140	-3%	-32%	-11%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Haraldur Magnus	$6,100	$7,000	$10,100	1089	1150	-4%	-33%	-12%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500

Color Coding
Course history in BLUE indicates a top ten finish.
Course history in GREEN indicates a top 25 finish.
Course history in YELLOW indicates a made cut with a finish outside of the top 25.
Course history in RED indicates a missed cut.

Legend

Term	Description
Site Odds	The percentage differential between a golfer’s salary rank and odds rank. The higher the %, the better.
OWGR	Official World Golf Ranking
Cuts	Cut record of each golfer at this course in the last five seasons.
2013 – 2017 Columns	Course history at this event in the last five seasons.