PGA First Look: Tour Championship
The PGA First Look is complete with a course preview, odds, salaries, Official World Golf Rankings, and course history.
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BMW Championship Recap
After a week off, it’s good to be talking golf again. Dustin Johnson ran away from the field at the BMW Championship to claim his third win of the season. He now leads the FedExCup Standings and has put himself in a prime position to win both the FedExCup and the Player of the Year. We saw notable finishes from Adam Scott (third fourth place finish in a row), Paul Casey (second second place finish in a row), and Patrick Reed (eighth top 15 finish in his last ten events). However, the biggest story of the week was Jason Day withdrawing from the final round with a back injury. He is currently set to play in the Tour Championship, which brings some added element of strategy into play this week. We obviously don’t have nearly as much information on injuries in golf as we do in other sports, but we have seen him bounce back on a number of occasions.
Before we move on, Tiger Woods announced that he will play in the 2016-17 season opener. Even if you aren’t a fan of Tiger, he is good for the game.
Tour Championship Preview
We are down to the final 30 in the FedExCup Championship. There were 40 golfers that didn’t advance after the BMW Championship, most notably Rickie Fowler, Brooks Koepka, and Henrik Stenson. The rules change a bit here at East Lake, as anyone inside the top five will automatically win the FedExCup if they win the Tour Championship. If Dustin Johnson, Patrick Reed, Adam Scott, Jason Day, or Paul Casey win this week, they will be the FedExCup Champion. Rory McIlroy and Jordan Spieth currently sit sixth and seventh in the rankings and will need a little bit of help to walk away with $10 million prize.
This event is held at East Lake Golf Club which is located in Atlanta, Georgia. East Lake is a Par 70 course that measures 7,307 yards. It features only two par fives, so we want to place an emphasis on par four and par three scoring. The length may not seem daunting, but this is actually a fairly long course considering the fact that it is a Par 70. Even though it’s a longer course, accuracy is required off the tee. You can miss fairways here, but not by much. Rather than focusing on driving accuracy, I will be using good drive percentage as a weight in my projections.
If you look at past winners of this event, accuracy and a good short game seems to be the recipe for East Lake. That’s not to say that the bombers can’t play well here, but their advantage off the tee isn’t nearly as great as it is on most courses. In addition to the usual strokes gained stat and the good drive percentage mentioned above, I will also be looking at birdie or better percentage, bogey avoidance, and par four scoring this week. This is also the final week of DraftKings’ Fantasy World Golf Championship. I’ve made it to the final round, so if you have any good karma to send my way, I will take any help I can get!
Cut Rule: With only 30 golfers in the field, there is no cut this week. In such a small field, it becomes critical to pick the winner.
Recent Winners of this Event: Jordan Spieth (2015), Billy Horschel (2014), Henrik Stenson (2013), Brandt Snedeker (2012), Bill Haas (2011)
Key Statistics
1) Strokes Gained Tee to Green
2) Strokes Gained Putting
3) Birdie or Better %
4) Good Drive %
5) Bogey Avoidance
6) Par 4 Scoring
Salaries, Odds, and Course History (2011-2015)
| Golfer | Salary | S-Rank | Odds | O-Rank | + / – | OWGR | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dustin Johnson | $11,700 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 500 | 5 | 10 | 23 |
| Rory McIlroy | $11,100 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 2 | 500 | 10 | 500 |
| Jordan Spieth | $10,600 | 3 | 9 | 4 | -1 | 4 | 1 | 27 | 2 | 500 | 500 |
| Jason Day | $10,300 | 4 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 4 | 14 | 500 | 6 |
| Adam Scott | $10,100 | 5 | 10 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 500 | 9 | 14 | 19 | 6 |
| Paul Casey | $9,500 | 6 | 15 | 6 | 0 | 16 | 5 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Patrick Reed | $9,000 | 7 | 19 | 7 | 0 | 8 | 27 | 19 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | $8,600 | 8 | 28 | 8 | 0 | 18 | 12 | 22 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Bubba Watson | $8,400 | 9 | 30 | 10 | -1 | 7 | 5 | 14 | 500 | 5 | 23 |
| Matt Kuchar | $8,200 | 10 | 28 | 9 | 1 | 17 | 10 | 13 | 26 | 10 | 20 |
| Phil Mickelson | $8,100 | 11 | 31 | 11 | 0 | 14 | 500 | 500 | 12 | 15 | 10 |
| Russell Knox | $8,000 | 12 | 38 | 15 | -3 | 19 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Jimmy Walker | $7,900 | 13 | 34 | 12 | 1 | 15 | 18 | 17 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Gary Woodland | $7,800 | 14 | 41 | 17 | -3 | 48 | 500 | 9 | 22 | 500 | 13 |
| Charl Schwartzel | $7,700 | 15 | 42 | 19 | -4 | 25 | 500 | 500 | 29 | 500 | 500 |
| Brandt Snedeker | $7,500 | 16 | 34 | 13 | 3 | 23 | 22 | 500 | 20 | 1 | 16 |
| J.B. Holmes | $7,400 | 17 | 36 | 14 | 3 | 21 | 8 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Roberto Castro | $7,300 | 18 | 57 | 21 | -3 | 70 | 500 | 500 | 9 | 500 | 500 |
| Kevin Chappell | $7,200 | 19 | 75 | 25 | -6 | 34 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Justin Thomas | $7,100 | 20 | 63 | 23 | -3 | 33 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Daniel Berger | $7,000 | 21 | 40 | 16 | 5 | 37 | 12 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Emiliano Grillo | $6,900 | 22 | 43 | 20 | 2 | 27 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Ryan Moore | $6,800 | 23 | 42 | 18 | 5 | 42 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 3 | 500 |
| Si Woo Kim | $6,700 | 24 | 68 | 24 | 0 | 58 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Jhonattan Vegas | $6,600 | 25 | 102 | 29 | -4 | 74 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Kevin Na | $6,500 | 26 | 57 | 22 | 4 | 36 | 16 | 19 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Jason Dufner | $6,400 | 27 | 78 | 26 | 1 | 62 | 500 | 500 | 9 | 20 | 13 |
| William McGirt | $6,300 | 28 | 98 | 28 | 0 | 41 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Sean O’Hair | $6,200 | 29 | 114 | 30 | -1 | 77 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Kevin Kisner | $6,100 | 30 | 93 | 27 | 3 | 32 | 28 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
Color Coding
Course history in BLUE indicates a top ten finish.
Course history in GREEN indicates a top 25 finish.
Course history in YELLOW indicates a finish outside of the top 25.
Legend
| Term | Description |
|---|---|
| S-Rank | Each golfer’s salary rank compared to the field, with one being the most expensive. |
| O-Rank | Each golfer’s odds rank compared to the field, with one the biggest favorite. |
| + / – | The difference between a golfer’s salary and odds rank. The bigger the number, the better. |
| OWGR | Official World Golf Ranking |
| 2011 – 2015 Columns | Course history at this event in the last five seasons. |