PGA First Look: U.S. Open

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The PGA First Look is complete with a course preview, odds, salaries, Official World Golf Rankings, and course history.

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Course Preview

If you are a golf fan, this is one of the best four weeks of the year. We have the 117th edition of the U.S. Open and with it, plenty of tournaments in the DFS world. The U.S. Open rotates courses each season and will be held in Wisconsin for the first time ever. Either through their official golf ranking, past U.S. Open results, or sectional qualifying, 156 golfers will make the trip to Erin Hills to try their best at what is typically the most difficult golf tournament in the world. The course is said to be in immaculate shape and will be a lot easier on the eyes than Chambers Bay was a couple of years ago. Before we dive into the specifics, here are some comments (not exact quotes) about the course from the USGA Executive Director, Mike Davis:

— This is not really a links-style course, despite the fescues, the wind, and the lack of trees (sounds like a links style course to me).
— The fairways are wider than most US Opens and are “bouncy.” They are described as 50 to 100% wider than those at Pebble Beach and Oakmont.
— There are a lot of fairways that have movement to them, so you don’t have a lot of flat lies at Erin Hills.
— The bunkers are basically hazards. Golfers will be in big trouble in the bunkers.Article Image
— There are quite a few blind shots where you won’t see the green, just the top half of the flagstick.
— Greens are in immaculate condition and are made of hybrid bentgrass.
— He expects a lot of putts to be made this week. If you find the right line, the ball should go in the hole.
— The greens are slightly larger than average size relative to other US Opens.
— Every single green has closely mown surrounds and because of that, you’re not going to see many players who miss a green hitting pitch shots out of thick rough.
— When it comes to recovery, the players have a choice. They may putt it, they may hit a bump and run, or they may pitch it.
— As many times as I’ve been out here, it’s a rarity to go out on this property and not get any wind
— The par fives are reachable in two in the right wind and from the right tee boxes.

You’ll be hard pressed to find a better course description than from the executive director himself. In terms of its length, Erin Hills is a Par 72 that measures 7,692 yards. This is the first tour event that the course has ever held, but the 2011 U.S. Amateur Championship was held here. There are a handful of golfers in the field that played in that event, including Jordan Spieth, Justin Thomas, and Peter Uihlein to name a few. The length of the course may seem daunting at first, but keep in mind that this is a Par 72, which is a first since the 1992 U.S. Open held at Pebble Beach. The course is certainly long, but that doesn’t mean that we should automatically rule out the shorter hitters. Keeping the ball out of the rough will be critical. The fairways are wide, but after that, there are a few yards of rough (grass) and then we have the knee-high fescue to deal with. In case you missed it, Kevin Na isn’t too happy with the tall grass.

One of the major storylines heading into the week is whether or not Phil Mickelson is going to be able to tee it up. At the Memorial Tournament, he said that he was going to miss the only major needed for his career grand slam in order to be there for his daughter’s high school graduation. His plans haven’t changed just yet, but there is a chance that we could see a rain delay on Thursday, which would push his tee time back far enough that he could make it in time. Oddsmakers currently have him as a huge favorite to miss the event, which would let Whee Kim tee it up in his place.

Course Fit & DFS Strategy

There are a few different ideas floating around on what type of golfer we should be targeting this week, but the truth is, we aren’t going to know for sure until the tournament starts. The course is an unknown, so we can make all of the assumptions in the world and it can easily prove us wrong come Sunday. Based on the course description, I will personally be leaning slightly on distance over accuracy. Ideally, we want to focus on strokes gained off the tee and give a slight edge to those with distance. Golfers are going to have a lot of long irons into the greens and they will also be forced into important up and downs in order to save par. There are four par fives on the course and scoring on them will be crucial. I am also placing a bigger weight on putting than I typically do. With these greens in such great shape, putters should have an advantage if they can read the lines and get the correct speed.

As for the non-statistical point of view, I want to target golfers with a good U.S. Open track record. This may be the first time Erin Hills has hosted a PGA Tour event, but having experience on difficult, U.S. Open style courses is important. The course features no trees and no water hazards, but wind could become a big factor. Targeting golfers that can play well in the wind and potentially shape their shots isn’t going to hurt. And finally, I’m looking to target world class players. It may sound simplistic, but talent typically wins out at the U.S. Open.

If you have any questions about the course or individual golfers, feel free to leave a comment below. And if you want to brush up on your PGA DFS strategy, watch my RotoAcademy video course with JMtoWin.

Cut Rule:The top 60 and ties will move on after the first two rounds.

Recent Winners of this Event:Dustin Johnson (2016), Jordan Spieth (2015), Martin Kaymer (2014), Justin Rose (2013), Webb Simpson (2012)

Key Statistics (In Order of Importance)

1) Strokes Gained Off the Tee (Emphasis on Distance)
2) Strokes Gained Approach
3) Par 5 Scoring
4) Strokes Gained Putting
5) Strokes Gained Around the Green (or Scrambling)

Salaries, Odds, and U.S. Open Course History (2012-2016)

Golfer DK Salary FD Salary FDRFT Salary OWGR Odds DK Odds FD Odds FDRFT Odds Cuts 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012
Dustin Johnson $12,000 $11,200 $19,000 1 8 0% 0% 0% 5/5 1 2 4 55 73
Jordan Spieth $11,500 $10,100 $18,200 6 14 -50% 40% -50% 4/5 37 1 17 113 21
Rory McIlroy $11,200 $10,300 $18,200 2 14 33% 50% 0% 3/5 75 9 23 41 95
Jason Day $10,800 $10,500 $17,900 3 15 0% -100% 0% 5/5 8 9 4 2 59
Rickie Fowler $10,500 $9,200 $16,600 9 22 -20% 40% -20% 3/5 107 143 2 10 41
Jon Rahm $10,300 $10,400 $16,600 10 21 17% -67% 0% 1/1 23 500 500 500 500
Sergio Garcia $10,000 $9,600 $16,400 5 25 -14% -33% 0% 5/5 5 18 35 45 38
Justin Rose $9,800 $9,300 $16,600 11 24 13% 22% -40% 4/5 75 27 12 1 21
Hideki Matsuyama $9,600 $9,600 $16,400 4 30 -11% -67% -25% 3/4 119 18 35 10 500
Henrik Stenson $9,300 $9,100 $16,400 7 29 10% 18% -13% 3/3 500 27 4 21 500
Brooks Koepka $9,000 $8,400 $15,600 22 42 -18% 13% 0% 3/4 13 18 4 500 136
Adam Scott $8,800 $9,500 $16,200 12 30 8% -38% 0% 5/5 18 4 9 45 15
Branden Grace $8,600 $7,700 $15,300 25 46 -15% 40% 0% 3/4 5 4 500 113 51
Paul Casey $8,400 $8,800 $14,900 14 53 -21% -31% -6% 3/4 75 39 56 45 500
Justin Thomas $8,300 $9,000 $15,900 13 33 20% 0% 0% 1/2 32 500 101 500 500
Bubba Watson $8,200 $6,500 $14,600 34 74 -69% 50% -50% 3/5 51 85 68 32 73
Jason Dufner $8,100 $7,500 $14,400 27 66 -29% 24% 0% 4/5 8 18 68 4 4
Daniel Berger $8,000 $6,800 $13,900 43 72 -33% 40% 14% 2/2 37 500 28 500 500
Kevin Chappell $7,900 $6,700 $14,000 26 68 -21% 48% 15% 3/4 89 46 500 32 10
Brandt Snedeker $7,800 $8,200 $13,500 36 104 -65% -83% -14% 3/4 107 8 9 17 500
Thomas Pieters $7,700 $7,400 $15,400 24 45 33% 53% 0% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Matt Kuchar $7,600 $8,600 $14,600 15 63 5% -50% -17% 5/5 46 12 12 28 27
Tyrrell Hatton $7,500 $7,600 $13,400 17 116 -61% -37% -19% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Kevin Kisner $7,500 $8,100 $14,500 19 51 30% 20% 24% 2/3 49 12 136 500 500
Alexander Noren $7,500 $7,800 $14,800 8 56 22% 18% -6% 0/3 119 97 500 500 95
Louis Oosthuizen $7,400 $8,400 $14,600 20 60 27% -27% -6% 4/4 23 2 40 500 73
Tommy Fleetwood $7,400 $6,700 $12,900 32 145 -73% -2% -13% 1/1 500 27 500 500 500
Rafael Cabrera-Bello $7,400 $7,600 $12,700 30 96 -23% -19% 30% 1/2 32 500 500 500 95
Patrick Reed $7,400 $8,200 $14,400 18 89 -12% -61% -32% 2/3 75 14 35 500 500
Charl Schwartzel $7,300 $6,800 $14,400 21 62 33% 50% 9% 4/5 23 7 68 14 38
Bud Cauley $7,300 $5,800 $12,900 98 178 -93% 18% -45% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Shane Lowry $7,300 $7,100 $14,400 70 72 17% 26% -14% 2/3 2 9 68 500 500
J.B. Holmes $7,300 $7,800 $12,900 49 128 -27% -73% 5% 2/3 89 27 17 500 500
Steve Stricker $7,200 $7,400 $13,000 84 131 -15% -30% -3% 3/3 500 500 21 8 15
Adam Hadwin $7,200 $7,100 $12,700 50 161 -47% -47% -9% 0/1 500 500 500 142 500
Russell Henley $7,200 $6,600 $13,000 56 143 -29% 10% -16% 1/3 500 97 60 142 500
Gary Woodland $7,200 $6,900 $12,400 45 155 -38% -24% 15% 1/3 500 131 52 500 108
Bernd Wiesberger $7,100 $6,500 $12,800 29 135 -8% 24% 9% 0/3 75 85 121 500 500
Brendan Steele $7,100 $7,200 $12,500 57 195 -61% -85% -20% 1/2 15 500 500 105 500
Daniel Summerhays $7,100 $5,700 $12,100 87 218 -76% 11% -6% 2/2 8 27 500 500 500
Russell Knox $7,100 $6,600 $12,200 38 238 -95% -51% -25% 2/2 23 500 500 45 500
Francesco Molinari $7,000 $7,800 $13,300 16 85 33% -27% 20% 3/4 500 27 23 105 29
Hao-Tong Li $7,000 $4,900 $11,800 126 252 -88% 15% -1% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Charley Hoffman $7,000 $6,700 $12,400 54 176 -36% -30% -4% 2/3 37 76 500 45 500
Martin Kaymer $7,000 $8,300 $14,400 58 73 38% -53% -18% 4/5 37 76 1 59 15
George Coetzee $6,900 $5,200 $11,900 129 245 -65% 12% -4% 2/3 500 70 500 56 123
Alexander Levy $6,900 $5,700 $11,900 75 227 -57% 4% 1% 1/1 500 27 500 500 500
Emiliano Grillo $6,900 $7,000 $12,600 39 135 9% -17% 13% 1/1 54 500 500 500 500
Peter Uihlein $6,900 $5,900 $12,100 149 213 -41% 4% -3% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Webb Simpson $6,900 $6,700 $12,500 63 160 -7% -11% 4% 4/5 107 46 45 32 1
Ryan Palmer $6,900 95 192 -30% 1/3 500 52 101 124 500
Keegan Bradley $6,900 $6,400 $12,100 120 217 -43% -16% -5% 3/5 89 27 4 105 68
William McGirt $6,900 $6,600 $12,000 52 226 -54% -45% 1% 0/1 89 500 500 500 500
Zach Johnson $6,900 $7,700 $12,900 67 162 -11% -104% -28% 4/5 8 72 40 95 41
Yuta Ikeda $6,900 $5,700 $10,800 59 488 -128% -40% -5% 0/1 107 500 500 500 500
Martin Laird $6,900 $6,300 $11,900 115 245 -65% -29% -4% 2/2 500 500 500 21 73
Brandon Stone $6,900 $5,300 $11,200 89 358 -98% -8% -7% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Roberto Castro $6,900 $4,900 $10,900 107 509 -139% -18% -20% 1/3 500 76 101 500 73
Byeong-Hun An $6,800 $6,800 $13,300 55 106 41% 13% 0% 1/2 23 107 500 500 500
Stewart Cink $6,800 $6,600 $12,300 172 173 5% -14% 3% 1/3 500 500 54 85 118
Hideto Tanihara $6,800 $6,200 $11,700 47 269 -39% -30% 0% 1/1 51 500 500 500 500
Lee Westwood $6,800 $6,800 $13,500 53 105 42% 15% -17% 4/5 32 50 101 15 10
Jamie Lovemark $6,800 $6,300 $12,100 93 207 -7% -7% 0% 1/1 500 18 500 500 500
Lucas Glover $6,800 $5,600 $12,500 102 146 22% 41% 10% 1/5 89 150 101 137 73
Wesley Bryan $6,800 $5,800 $12,200 40 210 -8% 10% -8% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Sean O’Hair $6,800 $6,000 $12,100 71 190 0% 12% 6% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Si Woo Kim $6,800 $6,100 $12,900 31 132 32% 38% 0% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Kevin Na $6,800 $6,400 $12,100 66 245 -29% -33% -21% 4/4 7 46 12 500 29
Bryson DeChambeau $6,800 $5,600 $11,900 144 277 -42% -8% -15% 1/2 15 107 500 500 500
Shugo Imahira $6,700 $4,500 $10,600 146 533 -60% 8% -8% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Gregory Bourdy $6,700 163 314 -26% 2/2 18 500 500 500 73
Marc Leishman $6,700 $6,900 $13,400 37 91 57% 21% 3% 1/3 18 119 500 113 500
Matthew Fitzpatrick $6,700 $6,300 $13,400 35 111 49% 39% -16% 2/2 54 500 48 500 500
Jimmy Walker $6,700 $8,000 $13,200 33 137 39% -105% -16% 2/3 107 58 9 500 500
Yusaku Miyazato $6,700 $4,800 $10,600 121 533 -61% -14% -9% 1/1 23 500 500 500 500
Paul Dunne $6,700 $4,800 $11,600 167 310 -24% 12% -4% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
JT Poston $6,700 $5,500 $10,800 180 382 -31% -12% 8% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Richie Ramsay $6,700 $4,500 $11,000 303 406 -34% 23% -6% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Billy Horschel $6,700 $6,500 $13,400 48 94 56% 43% 0% 4/4 32 25 23 4 500
Bradley Dredge $6,700 $5,000 $10,900 125 495 -53% -19% -16% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Ernie Els $6,700 $5,100 $10,900 388 396 -33% -6% -1% 4/5 100 54 35 4 9
Danny Willett $6,700 $6,100 $12,100 28 256 -14% -25% -27% 2/3 37 107 45 500 500
Ross Fisher $6,600 $5,900 $12,600 44 158 42% 29% 0% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Graeme McDowell $6,600 $7,000 $12,600 90 163 37% -44% -8% 3/5 18 97 28 113 2
Pat Perez $6,600 $6,700 $12,400 41 165 35% -23% 2% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
David Lingmerth $6,600 $5,800 $12,200 108 225 16% 1% -19% 2/2 12 500 500 17 500
Bill Haas $6,600 $7,300 $12,500 46 165 36% -66% -4% 3/5 51 76 35 95 73
Brian Harman $6,600 $6,300 $12,200 51 219 18% -15% -15% 1/2 500 97 500 500 73
Jhonattan Vegas $6,600 $5,800 $11,800 68 283 -2% -20% -9% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Andrew Johnston $6,600 $5,600 $11,800 117 239 10% 4% 4% 1/1 54 500 500 500 500
Harris English $6,600 $5,900 $12,100 116 220 17% -1% -10% 2/2 37 500 48 500 500
Jason Kokrak $6,600 $5,600 $11,800 97 258 2% -4% -4% 1/1 37 500 500 500 500
Scott Piercy $6,600 $6,100 $12,100 61 202 25% 3% 2% 1/3 2 500 500 124 95
Whee Kim $6,600 290 327 -8% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Jim Furyk $6,600 $6,600 $11,900 80 231 12% -49% 0% 4/5 2 42 12 137 4
Matt Wallace $6,500 $4,600 $11,100 147 426 -2% 13% -13% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Jordan Niebrugge $6,500 $4,800 $11,200 941 320 7% 10% -5% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Chris Wood $6,500 60 173 43% 1/1 23 500 500 500 500
Aaron Rai $6,500 $4,900 $11,100 166 454 -4% -8% -15% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Eddie Pepperell $6,500 $4,700 $11,000 449 406 1% 12% -7% 0/1 500 500 500 124 500
Jeunghun Wang $6,500 $4,800 $11,700 62 276 14% 16% -1% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Chez Reavie $6,500 $5,300 $11,000 158 297 10% -2% 3% 0/1 500 500 500 500 95
Joaquin Niemann $6,500 $4,800 $10,900 471 -6% -3% -11% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Maverick McNealy $6,500 $5,400 $10,900 420 -1% -17% -5% 0/1 500 500 121 500 500
Angel Cabrera $6,500 $4,800 $10,900 616 472 -7% -4% -12% 3/5 37 64 68 132 46
Cheng-Tsung Pan $6,500 $4,800 $10,900 157 412 0% 3% -4% 2/2 500 64 500 45 500
Thomas Aiken $6,500 $4,800 $10,900 179 495 -11% -8% -16% 1/2 125 25 500 500 500
Oliver Bekker $6,400 $4,500 $10,600 227 622 -7% 5% -12% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Satoshi Kodaira $6,400 $4,500 $10,600 112 507 -1% 11% -5% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Ted Potter $6,400 $4,600 $10,800 460 6% 11% -1% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Sam Ryder $6,400 $4,500 $10,500 307 600 -6% 6% -1% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Wade Ormsby $6,400 $4,500 $10,500 444 659 -11% 2% -5% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Michael Putnam $6,400 $10,500 1186 687 -13% -7% 0/1 500 85 500 500 500
Xander Schauffele $6,400 $4,800 $10,700 345 483 4% -5% -1% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Scottie Scheffler $6,400 $4,600 $10,600 572 -6% -1% -10% 0/1 68 500 500 500 500
Jonathan Randolph $6,400 $4,900 $10,600 348 524 -3% -19% -7% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Brian Stuard $6,400 $5,200 $10,600 145 490 2% -23% -2% 0/2 500 500 101 85 500
Chan Kim $6,300 $4,500 $10,600 262 665 -3% 1% -16% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Stephan Jaeger $6,300 $4,600 $10,500 286 454 16% 12% 13% 0/1 500 143 500 500 500
Kyle Thompson $6,300 $4,500 $10,500 353 839 -8% -4% -11% 0/1 500 500 500 500 136
Talor Gooch $6,300 $4,500 $10,400 539 826 -7% -3% -5% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Jack Maguire $6,300 $4,600 $10,400 564 939 -11% -16% -9% 1/1 500 58 500 500 500
Joel Stalter $6,300 $4,500 $10,500 338 778 -4% -1% -8% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Corey Conners $6,300 $4,700 $10,600 573 641 0% -9% -13% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Daniel Chopra $6,300 $4,600 $10,400 794 946 -12% -17% -10% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Andres Romero $6,300 $4,900 $10,600 767 641 0% -27% -13% 1/1 500 14 500 500 500
Dru Love $6,200 1177 -8% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Derek Barron $6,200 $4,500 $10,400 1022 -5% -9% -11% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Ryan Brehm $6,200 $5,000 $10,400 316 793 2% -38% -3% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Brice Garnett $6,200 $4,700 $10,400 674 930 -2% -20% -8% 0/1 500 500 500 500 139
Matt Campbell $6,200 1543 -18% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Alex Smalley $6,200 $4,500 $10,400 1533 -17% -22% -24% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Ben Kohles $6,200 $4,500 $10,400 1093 1076 -6% -10% -12% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Trey Mullinax $6,200 $4,900 $10,400 401 639 8% -26% 3% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Troy Merritt $6,200 $5,100 $10,400 291 809 2% -42% -4% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Brad Dalke $6,200 $4,700 $10,400 924 -2% -19% -8% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Roman Robledo $6,100 $4,500 $10,400 1609 -12% -25% -28% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Gene Sauers $6,100 $4,500 $10,400 1304 -3% -16% -18% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Stewart Hagestad $6,100 $5,000 $10,400 920 7% -42% -7% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Tyson Alexander $6,100 $4,500 1400 -7% -20% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Walker Lee $6,100 $4,500 $10,400 1522 -8% -21% -23% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Sahith Theegala $6,100 $4,700 $10,400 1283 -1% -29% -16% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Scott Harvey $6,100 $4,500 $10,400 1174 1% -11% -13% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Max Greyserman $6,100 $4,500 $10,400 1478 -7% -20% -23% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Scott Gregory $6,100 $4,600 $10,400 1105 1% -19% -13% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Tyler Light $6,000 1395 1% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Nick Flanagan $6,000 $4,500 $10,400 1293 4% -15% -17% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Andy Pope $6,000 $4,500 $10,400 1250 5% -13% -15% 1/2 107 70 500 500 500
Cameron Champ $6,000 $4,500 $10,400 1717 -6% -27% -29% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Chris Crawford $6,000 $4,500 $10,400 1630 -5% -26% -28% 0/1 119 500 500 500 500
Kevin Dougherty $6,000 $4,500 $10,400 1607 -4% -25% -27% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Mason Andersen $6,000 $4,500 $10,400 1591 -3% -24% -26% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
John Oda $6,000 $4,600 $10,400 1348 3% -26% -18% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Daniel Miernicki $6,000 $4,500 $10,400 1380 1% -18% -20% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Garrett Osborn $6,000 $4,600 $10,400 1370 2% -27% -19% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500

Color Coding
Course history in BLUE indicates a top ten finish.
Course history in GREEN indicates a top 25 finish.
Course history in YELLOW indicates a made cut with a finish outside of the top 25.
Course history in RED indicates a missed cut.

Legend

Term Description
Site Odds The percentage differential between a golfer’s salary rank and odds rank. The higher the %, the better.
OWGR Official World Golf Ranking
Cuts Cut record of each golfer at this course in the last five seasons.
2012 – 2016 Columns Course history at this event in the last five seasons.

About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on Twitter – @RG_Notorious