PGA First Look: U.S. Open

The PGA First Look is complete with a course preview, odds, salaries, Official World Golf Rankings, and course history.

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Event Preview

We have finally arrived at the second major of the year and it should be a fun one. Whether golfers qualified automatically or through sectionals, they are going to face a tough test this week in Long Island. The field features the 72 of the top 100 golfers in the world, as well as a number of no-name golfers looking to take advantage of once in a lifetime opportunities. Shinnecock Hills is one of the most iconic courses this side of the pond. It was originally built in 1892, so it is one of the oldest courses in America. There has been debate on whether this is a true links course, but at the very least, it is a links-style course that should make coastal golfers feel right at home.

Let’s start with the changes that have been made to Shinnecock Hills since the last time it hosted the U.S. Open (2004). Hundreds of trees were removed, the fairways were widened (by nearly 50%), and the greens are considerably larger in size. These all sound like adjustments to make the course easier, but don’t be fooled — they added a total 450 yards to the scorecard. The course is now a Par 70 that measures 7,445 yards, which is longer than most Par 72 courses on tour. We are expecting fast poa annua greens (13-14 on the stimpmeter). After last year’s U.S. Open turned into a birdie fest, we should expect the USGA to pull out all the stops to make this week difficult. Predicting the winning score is always a tough proposition, but I’d be surprised if more than a handful of golfers finished under par.

If you want to see the flyover videos of each hole, start here and you can go down the old YouTube rabbit hole. The actual yardage for the course will change each day with the setup, but golfers will only have two par fives to feast on. Unlike most courses, these par fives will not produce automatic birdies. Only the longest of hitters will be able to reach these in two, as they measure 589 yards and 616 yards, respectively. Scoring will obviously correlate directly with the conditions. We may have some rain in the forecast leading up to the tournament, but if that doesn’t happen, golfers will have a firm and fast course on their hands. Wind will play a pivotal role, so make sure to check the weather leading right up until lock.

Now, let’s get into the DFS side of the tournament. Only 60 golfers (and ties) will make the cut this week. You can argue that the bottom of the field is weak, but a lower percentage of golfers will actually make the cut this week. The USGA got rid of the rule where golfers within ten shots of the lead will play the weekend. Even though we don’t have relevant course history, it’s not a bad idea to look at past U.S. Open success or how golfers fare on links-style courses. Even if the course plays firm and fast, golfers will have to hit the driver well to compete this week. The fairways are fairly wide, but they do narrow as you get closer to the hole. I’m giving the edge to distance over accuracy off the tee, but total driving (or strictly strokes gained off the tee) might be the best approach.

The pricing is quite soft this week thanks to the combination of the field strength and the fact that sites want to bring in as many casual DFS players as possible. Soft pricing combined with the top 60 and ties cut rule places a bigger emphasis on getting 6-of-6 through the cut. The tough scoring will also place a bigger emphasis on finishing position and less on birdie making. You won’t see as many golfers that severely outperform their finishing position when it comes to fantasy production. RotoGrinders will have plenty of great premium content throughout the week including consensus value rankings, premium insights, articles for cash game and tournament strategy, and ownership projections.

Click here to check the wind from the tower that is closest to the course.

Cut Rule: The top 60 and ties move on after the first two rounds. The MDF rule will not be in effect this week.

Recent Winners of this Event:Brooks Koepka (2017), Dustin Johnson (2016), Jordan Spieth (2015), Martin Kaymer (2014), Justin Rose (2013)

Key Statistics (In Order of Importance)

1) Strokes Gained Off the Tee
2) Strokes Gained Approach
3) Birdie or Better %
4) Strokes Gained Around the Green
5) Bogey Avoidance

Hole by Hole Breakdown

Salaries, Odds, and Course History (2013-2017)

Golfer DK Salary FD Salary FDRFT Salary OWGR Odds DK Odds FD Odds FDRFT Odds Cuts 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013
Dustin Johnson $11,700 $12,400 $17,600 1 8 0% 0% 0% 4/5 92 1 2 4 55
Rory McIlroy $11,500 $11,700 $17,500 6 13 0% 67% 0% 3/5 102 75 9 23 41
Justin Thomas $11,000 $12,100 $17,000 2 14 -33% -33% -33% 2/3 9 32 500 101 500
Jordan Spieth $10,800 $11,500 $16,800 4 17 -50% 14% -50% 4/5 35 37 1 17 113
Jason Day $10,500 $12,000 $16,700 8 16 0% -25% 0% 4/5 144 8 9 4 2
Rickie Fowler $10,200 $11,400 $16,400 7 18 -17% 22% 13% 3/5 5 107 143 2 10
Justin Rose $9,900 $12,200 $16,500 3 14 57% -50% 57% 3/5 69 75 27 12 1
Jon Rahm $9,500 $11,800 $16,000 5 20 -25% -100% -11% 1/2 102 23 500 500 500
Tiger Woods $9,200 $11,000 $16,600 80 19 11% 33% -33% 1/2 500 500 150 500 32
Brooks Koepka $9,000 $11,500 $15,900 9 20 10% -29% 10% 4/4 1 13 18 4 500
Hideki Matsuyama $8,900 $10,300 $15,700 10 30 -9% 37% -9% 4/5 2 119 18 35 10
Henrik Stenson $8,800 $11,300 $15,500 17 30 -8% -30% -8% 3/4 79 500 27 4 21
Sergio Garcia $8,700 $10,400 $15,200 15 43 -38% -6% -20% 5/5 21 5 18 35 45
Phil Mickelson $8,600 $10,600 $15,400 20 30 21% 27% 15% 3/4 500 68 64 28 2
Patrick Reed $8,500 $11,300 $15,300 13 41 -13% -70% -21% 3/4 13 75 14 35 500
Branden Grace $8,400 $10,000 $15,000 34 36 13% 42% 13% 3/4 50 5 4 500 113
Bryson DeChambeau $8,300 $10,100 $14,800 22 41 6% 27% 6% 1/3 115 15 107 500 500
Bubba Watson $8,200 $10,200 $14,500 19 56 -33% -20% -20% 2/5 92 51 85 68 32
Tommy Fleetwood $8,100 $10,400 $14,600 12 40 21% 12% 21% 2/2 4 500 27 500 500
Paul Casey $8,000 $10,500 $14,700 11 46 5% -19% -6% 4/5 26 75 39 56 45
Adam Scott $7,900 $9,800 $14,300 67 58 -24% 4% -18% 4/5 79 18 4 9 45
Alexander Noren $7,900 $9,700 $14,400 16 52 0% 28% 0% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Marc Leishman $7,800 $10,100 $14,200 14 55 0% -5% 0% 2/4 27 18 119 500 113
Louis Oosthuizen $7,800 $9,900 $14,100 33 56 -9% 4% -4% 4/4 23 23 2 40 500
Webb Simpson $7,700 $10,700 $14,000 21 61 -8% -93% -8% 4/5 35 107 46 45 32
Patrick Cantlay $7,700 $9,700 $13,800 29 53 12% 24% 19% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Charl Schwartzel $7,700 $8,800 $13,600 44 91 -36% 29% -17% 3/5 79 23 7 68 14
Francesco Molinari $7,600 $9,200 $13,700 18 52 29% 47% 29% 2/4 79 500 27 23 105
Keegan Bradley $7,600 $8,800 $13,300 69 119 -71% 0% -50% 3/5 60 89 27 4 105
Matt Kuchar $7,600 $10,800 $13,900 25 62 0% -115% -8% 5/5 16 46 12 12 28
Daniel Berger $7,600 $9,600 $13,000 43 106 -39% -26% -15% 2/3 140 37 500 28 500
Tony Finau $7,500 $10,200 $13,500 37 72 9% -45% 3% 1/2 500 68 14 500 500
Xander Schauffele $7,500 $9,200 $13,400 26 87 6% 21% 3% 1/1 5 500 500 500 500
Cameron Smith $7,500 $8,100 $12,600 42 116 -44% 32% -7% 2/2 500 59 4 500 500
Aaron Wise $7,400 $8,400 $12,700 71 108 -14% 33% -8% 0/1 500 100 500 500 500
Martin Kaymer $7,400 $8,000 $12,700 118 112 -20% 41% -14% 4/5 35 37 76 1 59
Matthew Fitzpatrick $7,400 $8,800 $12,600 39 127 -49% -8% -21% 3/3 35 54 500 48 500
Ian Poulter $7,300 $9,500 $12,600 27 104 0% -19% 12% 3/3 500 500 54 17 21
Jimmy Walker $7,300 $9,800 $13,100 55 89 18% -15% 6% 2/4 115 107 58 9 500
Brandt Snedeker $7,300 $9,500 $12,600 89 101 5% -13% 16% 4/5 9 107 8 9 17
Kevin Kisner $7,300 $8,300 $12,700 30 133 -53% 6% -57% 3/4 58 49 12 136 500
Luke List $7,200 $8,900 $12,600 54 116 -7% 0% -5% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Kyle Stanley $7,200 $8,900 $12,600 38 102 12% 18% 14% 1/1 500 500 500 500 73
Rafael Cabrera-Bello $7,200 $10,000 $12,700 24 90 24% -33% 14% 2/2 42 32 500 500 500
Shane Lowry $7,200 $8,200 $12,500 85 114 -5% 32% 12% 3/4 46 2 9 68 500
Kiradech Aphibarnrat $7,200 $9,100 $12,600 31 119 -17% -20% -14% 0/1 500 131 500 500 500
Kevin Chappell $7,200 $9,200 $12,800 56 137 -43% -58% -71% 3/4 23 89 46 500 32
Charley Hoffman $7,200 $8,700 $12,500 36 129 -29% -4% -8% 3/4 8 37 76 500 45
Brian Harman $7,200 $9,100 $12,800 28 113 -2% -5% -23% 1/2 2 500 97 500 500
Zach Johnson $7,100 $9,400 $12,500 60 109 18% -21% 18% 4/5 27 8 72 40 95
Peter Uihlein $7,100 $8,900 $12,300 49 124 0% -11% 7% 0/1 69 500 500 500 500
Russell Henley $7,100 $8,600 $12,200 58 134 -18% -7% -7% 2/4 27 500 97 60 142
Tyrrell Hatton $7,100 $8,500 $12,700 23 117 6% 19% -27% 0/1 92 500 500 500 500
Pat Perez $7,100 $8,700 $12,000 32 154 -28% -23% -5% 0/1 69 500 500 500 500
Bill Haas $7,100 $8,300 $12,100 88 160 -32% -6% -12% 3/5 5 51 76 35 95
Ollie Schniederjans $7,100 $8,100 $12,200 98 208 -46% -7% -33% 1/1 500 500 42 500 500
Emiliano Grillo $7,100 $8,800 52 91 34% 31% 1/2 132 54 500 500 500
Chesson Hadley $7,000 $9,300 $12,000 62 130 3% -56% 8% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Jason Dufner $7,000 $8,500 $12,700 53 130 2% 2% -54% 3/5 127 8 18 68 4
Adam Hadwin $7,000 $9,100 $12,200 47 128 9% -29% 4% 1/2 60 500 500 500 142
Ross Fisher $7,000 $7,800 $12,000 41 183 -22% 9% -16% 0/1 69 500 500 500 500
Si Woo Kim $7,000 $8,700 $12,500 46 144 -5% -17% -22% 1/1 13 500 500 500 500
Satoshi Kodaira $7,000 $7,900 $11,900 35 243 -38% -8% -25% 1/1 46 500 500 500 500
Hao-Tong Li $7,000 $7,800 $11,800 45 180 -21% 10% -6% 1/1 68 500 500 500 500
Danny Willett $7,000 $7,100 $11,800 413 225 -31% 25% -15% 2/3 500 37 107 45 500
Steve Stricker $6,900 $9,300 $11,800 134 125 23% -42% 23% 3/3 16 500 500 21 8
Chez Reavie $6,900 $8,200 $11,800 50 161 -2% -3% -2% 1/1 16 500 500 500 500
Lucas Glover $6,900 $7,400 $11,400 107 227 -17% 14% -5% 0/5 69 89 150 101 137
Jhonattan Vegas $6,900 $7,700 $11,100 70 268 -29% -5% -9% 0/1 132 500 500 500 500
Jim Furyk $6,900 $8,000 $11,400 279 270 -30% -21% -18% 4/5 23 2 42 12 137
Andrew Johnston $6,900 $7,900 $11,800 147 206 -9% 3% -9% 2/2 42 54 500 500 500
Matt Wallace $6,900 $7,800 $11,000 90 257 -24% -5% -1% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Byeong-Hun An $6,900 $8,600 57 101 47% 36% 1/3 79 23 107 500 500
Scott Piercy $6,900 $7,500 181 223 -14% 13% 1/3 115 2 500 500 124
Gary Woodland $6,800 $8,600 $12,100 40 130 27% 0% 7% 2/3 50 500 131 52 500
Russell Knox $6,800 $8,400 $11,100 145 171 8% -15% 12% 2/3 102 23 500 500 45
Brendan Steele $6,800 $9,100 $12,200 48 148 16% -54% -15% 2/3 13 15 500 500 105
Dylan Frittelli $6,800 $8,300 $11,000 61 218 1% -19% 9% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Brian Gay $6,800 $7,500 $10,800 139 270 -15% 0% -2% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Graeme McDowell $6,800 $7,900 $11,900 172 162 9% 8% -6% 2/5 102 18 97 28 113
Shubhankar Sharma $6,800 $8,100 $11,100 76 246 -8% -19% -4% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Trey Mullinax $6,800 $7,200 $11,700 164 232 -4% 20% -10% 1/1 9 500 500 500 500
Alexander Levy $6,800 $8,200 $11,400 51 236 -5% -22% -8% 1/2 132 500 27 500 500
Charles Howell $6,700 $9,400 $11,400 59 155 23% -91% 11% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Thorbjorn Olesen $6,700 $8,000 $10,700 73 144 26% 13% 28% 0/1 500 500 500 500 144
Aaron Baddeley $6,700 $7,400 $10,600 244 423 -15% -8% -9% 1/2 500 500 500 23 74
Sebastian Munoz $6,700 $7,000 $10,600 277 411 -14% 11% -8% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Braden Thornberry $6,700 $7,700 $10,800 797 263 0% -4% 0% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Roberto Castro $6,700 $7,300 $10,700 262 305 -6% 5% -3% 0/3 132 500 76 101 500
Patrick Rodgers $6,700 $7,500 $11,200 128 257 2% 5% -6% 1/1 500 46 500 500 500
Brian Stuard $6,700 $7,400 $10,300 263 426 -17% -9% -2% 0/3 149 500 500 101 85
Theo Humphrey $6,700 $7,000 $10,200 605 -37% -6% -11% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Matt Jones $6,600 $7,400 $11,500 302 405 -2% -6% -32% 0/1 500 500 500 68 500
Harold Varner $6,600 $7,300 $10,500 167 389 -1% 0% -3% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Scott Stallings $6,600 $7,100 $10,400 155 383 0% 8% -1% 1/1 500 500 500 500 53
Richy Werenski $6,600 $7,200 $10,200 227 440 -8% -2% 4% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Tyler Duncan $6,600 $7,000 $10,300 402 488 -15% 1% -11% 0/1 500 500 119 500 500
Doug Ghim $6,600 $7,300 $10,300 473 -12% -11% -8% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Kenny Perry $6,600 $7,000 $10,200 807 -32% -14% -18% 1/1 500 500 500 28 500
Ernie Els $6,600 $7,200 $10,300 696 486 -14% -8% -10% 4/5 55 100 54 35 4
Noah Goodwin $6,600 $7,000 $10,200 702 -26% -8% -13% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Mac Hughes $6,500 $7,100 $10,400 248 541 -9% -10% -21% 0/1 500 500 500 500 113
Michael Putnam $6,500 $7,100 $10,200 1053 727 -18% -19% -15% 1/2 35 500 85 500 500
Richie Ramsay $6,500 $7,500 $10,400 168 433 3% -15% -8% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Dylan Meyer $6,500 $7,000 $10,200 714 -17% -10% -14% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Ryan Fox $6,500 $7,600 $10,700 124 286 14% -6% -2% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Stewart Hagestad $6,500 $7,100 $10,200 700 -14% -15% -12% 0/1 132 500 500 500 500
Shota Akiyoshi $6,500 $7,000 $10,400 183 505 -6% 0% -17% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Jacob Bergeron $6,500 $7,000 $10,100 881 -26% -19% -11% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Ted Potter $6,500 $7,600 84 381 10% -11% 0/2 115 500 500 500 85
Sam Burns $6,400 $7,900 $10,900 171 355 18% -23% -10% 0/1 500 89 500 500 500
Lanto Griffin $6,400 $7,000 $10,200 328 555 -1% -4% -8% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Scott Gregory $6,400 $7,000 $10,300 864 -14% -18% -32% 0/1 92 500 500 500 500
Matthew Southgate $6,400 $7,300 $10,300 189 464 8% -9% -6% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Michael Hebert $6,400 $7,000 $10,300 750 605 -3% -6% -19% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
James Morrison $6,400 $7,000 $10,300 355 478 5% 3% -9% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Harry Ellis $6,400 $7,000 $10,200 991 -23% -26% -31% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Garrett Rank $6,400 $7,000 $10,100 905 -18% -21% -13% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Mike Miller $6,400 $7,000 $10,100 913 -19% -22% -14% 0/1 500 125 500 500 500
Sebastian Vazquez $6,300 $7,000 $10,100 1095 -23% -36% -27% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Tim Wilkinson $6,300 $7,000 $10,100 770 869 -7% -19% -10% 1/1 500 61 500 500 500
Cameron Wilson $6,300 $7,000 $10,100 1074 -21% -34% -25% 0/1 500 500 500 101 500
Will Grimmer $6,300 $7,000 $10,100 1005 -16% -29% -20% 0/1 500 500 500 153 500
Matt Parziale $6,300 $7,000 $10,100 1132 -23% -37% -28% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Wen-Chong Liang $6,300 $7,000 $10,100 491 830 -4% -16% -8% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Tyler Strafaci $6,300 $10,100 1050 -20% -24% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Luis Gagne $6,300 $7,000 $10,100 940 -12% -24% -16% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Sung Joon Park $6,300 $7,000 $10,100 1011 -17% -30% -21% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Rikuya Hoshino $6,300 $7,000 311 585 6% -5% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Paul Waring $6,200 $7,000 $10,100 247 467 21% 5% 11% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Eric Axley $6,200 $7,000 $10,100 390 807 5% -14% -6% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Jason Scrivener $6,200 $7,000 $10,100 186 444 22% 6% 13% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Shintaro Ban $6,200 $7,000 $10,200 779 6% -13% -17% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Michael Block $6,200 $7,000 $10,100 1159 -15% -39% -29% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Chun An Yu $6,200 $7,000 $10,100 938 -2% -23% -15% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
David Gazzolo $6,200 $7,000 $10,100 1014 -8% -31% -22% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Sulman Raza $6,200 $7,000 $10,100 1214 -17% -41% -31% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Ryan Evans $6,200 $7,100 301 706 9% -17% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Will Zalatoris $6,100 $7,000 $10,100 1032 -2% -31% -22% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Philip Barbaree $6,100 $7,000 $10,100 1136 -7% -38% -28% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Cole Miller $6,100 $7,000 $10,100 881 7% -19% -11% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Ryan Lumsden $6,100 $7,000 $10,100 1043 -3% -32% -23% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Calum Hill $6,100 $7,000 $10,100 1086 -5% -35% -26% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Timothy Wiseman $6,100 $7,000 $10,100 1167 -9% -40% -30% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Franklin Huang $6,100 $7,000 $10,100 1238 -11% -43% -33% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Chris Babcock $6,100 $7,000 $10,100 1262 -12% -44% -34% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Sungjae Im $6,100 $7,000 $10,200 105 1500 -12% -44% -50% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Dean Burmester $6,000 $7,600 $10,000 114 332 39% -8% 38% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Matthieu Pavon $6,000 $7,100 $10,000 213 528 26% -8% 25% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Chris Naegel $6,000 $7,000 $10,100 1098 957 9% -25% -16% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Tom Lewis $6,000 $7,000 $10,000 434 531 26% -2% 24% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
David Bransdon $6,000 $7,000 $10,200 450 764 18% -12% -16% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Kristoffer Reitan $6,000 $7,000 $10,000 853 15% -17% 13% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Lucas Herbert $6,000 $7,000 $10,000 159 1000 7% -27% 6% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Mickey DeMorat $6,000 $7,000 $10,000 1000 7% -27% 6% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Rhett Rasmussen $6,000 $7,000 $10,100 1214 -3% -41% -31% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500

Color Coding
Course history in BLUE indicates a top ten finish.
Course history in GREEN indicates a top 25 finish.
Course history in YELLOW indicates a made cut with a finish outside of the top 25.
Course history in RED indicates a missed cut.

Legend

Term Description
Site Odds The percentage differential between a golfer’s salary rank and odds rank. The higher the %, the better.
OWGR Official World Golf Ranking
Cuts Cut record of each golfer at this course in the last five seasons.
2013 – 2017 Columns Course history at this event in the last five seasons.

About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on Twitter – @RG_Notorious