PGA First Look: U.S. Open

The PGA First Look is complete with a course preview, odds, salaries, Official World Golf Rankings, and course history.

If you’re looking for more in-depth golf betting tips, check out our breakdown of the course and the PGA odds for the 2019 U.S. Open at Pebble Beach.

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Event Preview

Many professional golfers plan their season around the majors. They want to be firing on all cylinders leading into the majors to give themselves the best chance to win golf’s biggest events. DFS players are the exact same way. With massive tournaments across the industry, it almost feels like Christmas Eve. Before we get into a breakdown of Pebble Beach, I wanted to quickly hit on the RBC Canadian Open. It produced a very nice leaderboard and a deserving champion in Rory McIlroy, who ran away from the field with a 61 on Sunday. While Hamilton Golf and Country Club wasn’t a replica of what golfers can expect this week, it had narrow fairways and fairly penal rough. At the very least, it served as a nice warmup for those in the field.

We have a lot to talk about when it comes to the U.S. Open. I want to start with the cut line and the impact that it will have on DFS. Only the top 60 and ties will move on after the first two rounds are completed. With 156 golfers set to tee it up this week, we could see as little as 38% of the field making the cut. This is significantly lower than the Masters and notably lower than the other two majors. Getting 6-of-6 golfers will be needed to win large-field GPPs, but making the cut doesn’t have as much value in difficult scoring conditions. As we saw at the PGA Championship, there were golfers that lost fantasy points after making the cut. A bigger emphasis should be place on finishing position, as those points will be more valuable with the tough scoring conditions.

There are so many great storylines heading into the year’s third major. Tiger Woods is looking for major number 16 on a course where he lapped the field back in 2000, Brooks Koepka is looking to win his third straight U.S. Open, Dustin Johnson is looking for his second major at a course that he has dominated over the years, Jordan Spieth is finally rounding back into form, and Rory McIlroy will hope to run away from the field like he did a week ago. We also have a group of talented golfers looking for their first major — Rickie Fowler, Patrick Cantlay, Hideki Matsuyama, Tommy Fleetwood, Xander Schauffele, and Tony Finau. With PGA DFS growing and more states legalizing sportsbetting, I can’t think of a better time for the game of golf in general.

Pebble Beach Golf Links hosts the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am each year, but I won’t be placing much emphasis on course history this week. First off, the course is going to play completely different. In February, the course is set up for a Pro-Am (slower greens, wider fairways, thinner rough). For the U.S. Open, the course will play nearly 300 yards longer, the greens will be firmer and faster, the fairways will be thinner, and the rough will be extremely penal. The other reason to avoid putting too much stock into course history is that the Pro-Am event is played on three courses. Only two of the four rounds are actually played at Pebble Beach.

We haven’t seen a shorter, technical track at the U.S. Open for quite some time, so I’m excited to see the test of golf that awaits this field. Fairways here are typically around 33 yards wide on average (which is narrow to begin with), but will likely be around 29 yards on average for this event. With little to no rain in the area, the course is expected to play firm and fast, which is a description that I expect to hear a thousand times throughout the week. On some holes, golfers can expect their tee shots to roll out as much as 40 yards. With this being a short course where you have to hit the fairway, most golfers will only hit four or five drivers per round.

In general, the USGA wants the rough to be a half shot penalty and with this being a shorter course, I fully expect that to be the case this week. We’ve seen numerous videos online about the daunting rough, especially around the greens. Speaking of the greens, these are the smallest that golfers will see all year. They are 3,500 square feet on average. To quickly recap, we have narrow fairways, penalizing rough, fast and firm conditions, and tiny greens. Add in the fact that the greens aren’t receptive and we can expect a very low green in regulation number for the field. This makes scrambling incredibly important. The greens themselves are pure poa annua grass if you like to look at putting splits like myself.

When it comes to the majors, I try to lean on experience more than statistics. To succeed at the U.S. Open (particularly this one), you’ll need to have patience and you’ll need to make the smart golf shots at all times. Missing on the right side of the green will be critical for scrambling and keeping the ball below the hole will help avoid three-putting (especially if the greens get baked out later in the week). You can’t have a weakness in your game to win a major, so I’m looking at golfers that have strong all-around games. As always, be sure to check out our great premium content this week and if you ever have any questions, feel free to reach out on Twitter.

Good luck everyone!

Cut Rule: Only the top 60 and ties move on after the first two rounds, but there is no MDF this week.

Recent Winners of the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am:Phil Mickelson (2019), Ted Potter (2018), Jordan Spieth (2017), Vaughn Taylor (2016), Brandt Snedeker (2015)

Key Statistics (In Order of Importance)

1) Strokes Gained Approach
2) Strokes Gained Around the Green
3) Bogey Avoidance
4) Strokes Gained Putting (Emphasis on Poa)
5) Strokes Gained Off the Tee

Sports Betting Card

It was another one of those weeks where we had bets in play heading into the final round. Unfortunately, Webb Simpson and Brandt Snedeker were no match for the 61 that Rory McIlroy dropped at Hamilton Golf and Country Club. We also had a chance to get Peter Malnati across the finish line for a top 20, but he shot two over on Sunday and finished T31. While the 11 unit loss was far from ideal, we didn’t want to peak before the U.S. Open. Since this is the year’s third major, I’ll up the betting card a bit this week.

YTD: 5 wins, -2 units

Outright Bets

Tiger Woods — 12/1
Adam Scott — 33/1
Webb Simpson — 40/1
Jim Furyk — 125/1

Top 5 Bets

Gary Woodland — 12/1
Jim Furyk — 25/1
Lucas Glover — 28/1
Rafael Cabrera-Bello — 28/1

Top 20 Bets

Jim Furyk — 4/1
Lucas Glover — 5/1
Rafael Cabrera-Bello — 6/1
Erik Van Rooyen — 6/1
Chez Reavie — 8/1

Salaries, Odds, and Course History (2015-2019)

Golfer DK Salary FD Salary FDRFT Sal OWGR Odds DK % FD % FDRFT % Cuts 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015
Brooks Koepka $11,600 $12,300 $18,500 1 8 -200% -200% -200% 1/1 500 500 500 8 500
Dustin Johnson $11,300 $12,200 $18,200 2 8 0% 0% 0% 5/5 45 2 3 41 4
Tiger Woods $10,700 $11,900 $17,300 5 11 -33% -33% -33% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Rory McIlroy $10,500 $11,800 $16,800 4 8 75% 75% 75% 0/1 500 85 500 500 500
Jordan Spieth $10,300 $11,500 $16,500 28 17 0% 17% 0% 5/5 45 20 1 21 7
Patrick Cantlay $10,000 $11,300 $16,100 8 18 0% 25% 0% 2/2 500 35 48 500 500
Justin Rose $9,700 $11,600 $15,900 3 23 0% -40% 0% 2/2 500 500 39 6 500
Rickie Fowler $9,500 $11,100 $15,700 11 23 0% 20% 11% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Justin Thomas $9,300 $11,400 $15,800 6 25 0% -29% -13% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Jon Rahm $9,200 $11,200 $15,700 12 26 -10% -22% -22% 2/2 500 26 5 500 500
Jason Day $9,100 $10,800 $15,600 16 29 -18% 0% -18% 5/5 4 2 5 11 4
Francesco Molinari $9,000 $11,000 $15,400 7 32 -33% -45% -23% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Tommy Fleetwood $8,900 $10,600 $15,300 18 31 -15% 0% -7% 1/1 45 500 500 500 500
Hideki Matsuyama $8,800 $10,400 $15,300 29 29 14% 29% 14% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Xander Schauffele $8,700 $10,900 $15,600 10 25 33% 17% 9% 0/1 500 500 66 500 500
Adam Scott $8,600 $10,500 $15,300 17 30 13% 13% 0% 0/2 61 111 500 500 500
Matt Kuchar $8,500 $10,200 $14,200 13 39 0% 15% 19% 2/3 22 62 89 500 500
Tony Finau $8,400 $10,300 $14,900 14 41 -6% -6% -12% 2/2 38 500 23 500 500
Paul Casey $8,300 $10,000 $14,600 15 45 -16% -5% -10% 2/2 2 8 500 500 500
Phil Mickelson $8,200 $10,300 $14,800 25 44 -5% -17% -11% 4/4 1 2 65 2 500
Bryson DeChambeau $8,100 $10,700 $14,900 9 42 5% -43% -18% 1/2 500 55 111 500 500
Gary Woodland $8,000 $9,900 $13,800 24 67 -23% -23% -23% 1/2 500 85 5 500 500
Patrick Reed $7,900 $9,700 $13,500 23 76 -39% -28% -19% 4/5 22 76 23 6 29
Louis Oosthuizen $7,900 $9,900 $13,500 22 70 -22% -27% -4% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Sergio Garcia $7,800 $9,800 $13,800 30 71 -16% -21% -32% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Marc Leishman $7,800 $9,600 $13,800 21 65 -4% 0% -18% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Rory Sabbatini $7,700 $8,900 $12,200 114 139 -70% -15% -15% 2/5 71 72 48 120 91
Kevin Na $7,700 $9,200 $12,500 31 102 -30% -3% 3% 1/3 500 20 500 120 118
Webb Simpson $7,700 $9,600 $13,800 20 40 33% 31% 18% 0/1 500 500 78 500 500
Bubba Watson $7,600 $9,500 $13,300 19 100 -13% -21% -10% 1/2 500 35 500 70 500
Matt Wallace $7,600 $9,400 $13,400 26 75 0% 0% 0% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Henrik Stenson $7,600 $9,500 $13,500 43 51 17% 11% 7% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Ian Poulter $7,500 $9,300 $12,700 32 103 -9% -13% -6% 0/2 500 500 500 140 77
Shane Lowry $7,500 $9,000 $13,000 42 49 27% 37% 27% 4/5 82 43 14 41 21
Brandt Snedeker $7,500 $9,400 $13,300 50 48 30% 23% 26% 4/5 110 20 4 35 1
Matthew Fitzpatrick $7,400 $9,100 $12,600 35 113 -8% -8% -11% 0/1 101 500 500 500 500
Kevin Kisner $7,400 $9,100 $12,500 27 110 -3% -3% -3% 2/4 28 103 10 500 77
Martin Kaymer $7,400 $9,300 $13,600 97 77 8% -3% -27% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
J.B. Holmes $7,300 $8,500 $12,000 51 209 -77% -25% -35% 3/5 138 76 23 11 10
Cameron Smith $7,300 $9,000 $12,200 33 143 -26% -29% -23% 1/3 500 500 89 11 91
Rafael Cabrera-Bello $7,300 $8,900 $12,300 36 142 -23% -20% -23% 2/2 22 26 500 500 500
Graeme McDowell $7,300 $8,800 $12,500 121 76 21% 30% 14% 1/2 18 146 500 500 500
Hao-Tong Li $7,200 $8,600 $12,200 40 156 -28% -8% -38% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Branden Grace $7,200 $9,200 $12,200 53 132 -2% -29% -10% 2/2 28 20 500 500 500
Billy Horschel $7,200 $8,900 $12,200 39 119 5% -3% -3% 1/2 500 93 500 500 45
Jim Furyk $7,200 $8,700 $12,100 49 117 7% 15% 15% 2/3 14 500 66 500 7
Tyrrell Hatton $7,200 $8,800 $12,200 41 112 12% 14% 5% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
C.T. Pan $7,100 $8,400 $11,800 47 194 -33% -8% -3% 0/1 500 500 119 500 500
Keith Mitchell $7,100 $8,400 57 192 -31% -7% 1/2 71 47 500 500 500
Luke List $7,100 $8,600 $12,000 62 161 -21% -14% -14% 0/1 500 500 500 90 500
Alexander Noren $7,100 $8,400 $12,100 38 148 -8% 12% -11% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Daniel Berger $7,100 $8,900 $12,000 98 147 -6% -28% 0% 1/1 500 500 500 500 10
Si Woo Kim $7,100 $8,700 $12,000 56 142 2% 0% 8% 2/3 4 500 149 35 500
Eddie Pepperell $7,000 $11,900 34 350 -46% -36% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Abraham Ancer $7,000 $8,300 64 261 -35% -16% 0/1 500 500 500 147 500
Thomas Pieters $7,000 $8,600 $12,000 93 171 -11% -18% -18% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Zach Johnson $7,000 $8,700 $12,200 94 146 7% -6% -25% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Lucas Glover $7,000 $8,800 $12,100 77 133 17% -2% 4% 2/2 7 500 500 11 500
Keegan Bradley $7,000 $8,600 $12,000 37 130 20% 16% 16% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Jimmy Walker $7,000 $8,500 $12,100 101 125 22% 24% 11% 4/5 110 8 55 11 21
Justin Harding $6,900 $8,300 $11,200 46 253 -18% -14% -4% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Chez Reavie $6,900 $8,300 $11,200 63 218 -15% -11% -1% 3/5 38 2 78 26 91
Aaron Wise $6,900 $8,500 $11,900 71 188 0% -11% -5% 1/1 500 15 500 500 500
Byeong Hun An $6,900 $8,700 $12,000 58 170 3% -26% -16% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Charles Howell $6,900 $8,500 $11,900 52 160 7% -4% 2% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Jason Dufner $6,900 $8,300 $11,900 146 157 8% 11% 3% 1/1 500 500 500 51 500
Erik Van Rooyen $6,900 $8,100 $11,800 90 151 11% 25% 13% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Ryan Fox $6,800 $8,000 $10,700 88 353 -18% -5% -8% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Kyoung-Hoon Lee $6,800 $8,000 $10,700 238 334 -13% -1% -4% 0/1 120 500 500 500 500
Jhonattan Vegas $6,800 $8,200 $11,200 81 234 -4% -6% -3% 0/1 500 500 500 90 500
Lucas Bjerregaard $6,800 $8,200 44 207 0% -1% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Thorbjorn Olesen $6,800 $8,200 $11,700 59 204 1% 0% -2% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Kyle Stanley $6,800 $8,200 $11,600 55 201 3% 1% 1% 1/2 500 500 500 41 91
Kiradech Aphibarnrat $6,800 $8,400 $11,800 45 191 9% -5% 0% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Danny Willett $6,800 $8,100 $11,600 84 151 22% 26% 21% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Patton Kizzire $6,700 $8,000 $10,600 109 476 -18% -18% -17% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Sam Horsfield $6,700 $7,900 $10,600 225 426 -12% -5% -10% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Collin Morikawa $6,700 $7,500 $10,500 421 -11% 11% -2% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Ollie Schniederjans $6,700 $8,000 $10,600 235 397 -8% -8% -6% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Matt Jones $6,700 $8,000 $10,700 188 291 0% 0% -3% 4/5 53 129 23 11 7
Aaron Baddeley $6,700 $8,100 $10,900 180 284 1% -4% -4% 3/4 91 55 500 51 54
Viktor Hovland $6,700 $7,600 $10,600 668 279 3% 19% 4% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Scottie Scheffler $6,700 $8,200 $11,800 133 194 16% 4% -3% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
David Toms $6,600 $7,300 $10,200 653 -19% 5% -12% 0/1 500 500 500 120 500
Roberto Castro $6,600 $7,700 $10,300 334 508 -12% -7% -12% 2/4 53 500 100 8 142
Luke Guthrie $6,600 $7,400 $10,300 595 484 -8% 6% -8% 1/1 500 500 500 35 500
Brian Stuard $6,600 $7,800 $10,200 165 437 -5% -4% 1% 2/5 45 129 111 81 21
Marcus Kinhult $6,600 $7,400 $10,300 123 432 -2% 11% -2% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Chesson Hadley $6,600 $7,900 $10,500 99 432 -2% -6% -5% 2/4 138 35 500 101 10
Anirban Lahiri $6,600 $7,900 $10,600 245 416 1% -2% -8% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Luke Donald $6,600 $8,100 $10,900 512 334 7% -8% -8% 2/3 500 103 23 26 500
Brandon Wu $6,500 $7,000 811 -21% 4% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Zac Blair $6,500 $7,600 $10,200 805 718 -14% -15% -18% 2/4 500 93 48 60 91
Tom Hoge $6,500 $7,400 $10,100 347 653 -9% -3% -2% 2/5 91 93 39 41 112
Alex Prugh $6,500 $7,600 $10,200 531 550 -7% -8% -10% 2/3 53 500 500 90 10
Nate Lashley $6,500 $7,900 $10,200 397 532 -5% -20% -9% 1/2 45 76 500 500 500
Shugo Imahira $6,500 $7,700 $10,200 75 495 -1% -6% -4% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Ernie Els $6,500 $7,800 354 492 0% -8% 1/3 28 103 500 500 118
Dean Burmester $6,500 $7,500 $10,300 171 450 3% 5% -6% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Nick Taylor $6,500 $7,800 $10,300 270 358 12% 5% 4% 3/5 28 103 10 30 129
Stewart Hagestad $6,400 $7,000 $10,100 946 -18% -3% -21% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Julian Etulain $6,400 $7,400 $10,000 344 911 -16% -21% -4% 2/2 38 500 33 500 500
Marcus Fraser $6,400 $7,000 $10,100 451 855 -12% 3% -15% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Justin Walters $6,400 $7,000 $10,100 341 834 -11% 3% -14% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Renato Paratore $6,400 $7,000 $10,100 361 803 -9% 5% -12% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Matthieu Pavon $6,400 $7,000 $10,100 370 755 -6% 8% -9% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Brendon Todd $6,400 $7,400 $10,000 988 755 -6% -10% 4% 1/4 91 500 126 101 10
Sam Saunders $6,400 $7,700 $10,200 318 526 5% -9% -8% 2/5 38 26 78 81 91
Adri Arnaus $6,400 $7,300 $10,200 151 524 6% 10% -7% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Mike Weir $6,300 $7,300 $10,000 1105 -23% -29% -21% 0/4 500 76 119 152 152
Jovan Rebula $6,300 $7,000 $10,000 1075 -21% -15% -19% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Andreas Halvorsen $6,300 $7,000 $10,100 740 1021 -17% -11% -32% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Michael Thorbjornsen $6,300 $7,000 1018 -15% -9% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Daniel Hillier $6,300 $7,000 946 -8% -3% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Lee Slattery $6,300 $7,000 $10,000 359 871 -5% 0% -4% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Billy Hurley $6,300 $7,500 $10,000 1157 864 -5% -22% -3% 2/4 500 123 131 51 45
Joseph Bramlett $6,300 $7,000 $10,100 382 671 6% 11% -5% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Chun An Yu $6,300 $7,000 $10,200 656 7% 12% -15% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Sepp Straka $6,300 $7,400 $10,100 355 611 10% -2% -1% 0/1 143 500 500 500 500
Ryan Sullivan $6,200 $7,000 1268 -19% -23% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Chandler Eaton $6,200 $7,000 1232 -18% -22% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Charlie Danielson $6,200 $7,000 1161 -14% -18% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Brett Drewitt $6,200 $7,200 $10,000 1003 1105 -13% -22% -21% 1/1 500 500 33 500 500
Callum Tarren $6,200 $7,000 $10,000 435 1036 -8% -12% -16% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Cameron Young $6,200 $7,000 1018 -6% -9% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Devon Bling $6,200 $7,300 $10,100 964 -3% -18% -27% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Mikumu Horikawa $6,200 $7,000 269 950 -2% -5% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Nick Hardy $6,200 $7,400 $10,100 763 9% -12% -11% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Clement Sordet $6,200 $7,000 $10,100 283 750 12% 9% -8% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Eric Dietrich $6,100 $7,000 1643 -15% -28% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Hayden Shieh $6,100 $7,000 1482 -13% -27% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Spencer Tibbits $6,100 $7,000 1375 -12% -26% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Matthew Naumec $6,100 $7,000 1268 -10% -23% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Matt Parziale $6,100 $7,000 $10,000 1196 -8% -22% -26% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Noah Norton $6,100 $7,000 1179 -8% -21% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Rhys Enoch $6,100 $7,200 $10,000 352 1089 -3% -21% -20% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Kodai Ichihara $6,100 $7,000 $10,000 198 1004 3% -9% -13% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Chip McDaniel $6,100 $7,300 $10,100 916 950 6% -16% -24% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Carlos Ortiz $6,100 $7,300 $10,100 278 671 21% 2% -5% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Connor Arendell $6,000 $7,000 1536 -6% -28% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Brian Davis $6,000 $7,400 $10,000 1304 -4% -49% -29% 0/3 125 500 500 112 77
Andy Pope $6,000 $7,000 1161 2% -18% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Merrick Bremner $6,000 $7,000 405 1161 2% -18% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Austin Eckroat $6,000 $7,000 1071 6% -14% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Richard H. Lee $6,000 $7,100 1057 6% -16% 0/1 500 500 500 120 500
Rob Oppenheim $6,000 $7,100 $10,000 715 987 11% -11% -12% 2/3 500 47 8 70 500
Kevin O’Connell $6,000 $7,100 946 15% -5% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Mito Pereira $6,000 $7,000 $10,000 929 16% -2% -5% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Luis Gagne $6,000 $7,000 $10,000 861 19% 2% -2% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500

Color Coding
Course history in BLUE indicates a top ten finish.
Course history in GREEN indicates a top 25 finish.
Course history in YELLOW indicates a made cut with a finish outside the top 25.
Course history in RED indicates a missed cut.

Legend

Term Description
Site % Odds The percentage differential between a golfer’s salary rank and odds rank. The higher the %, the better.
OWGR Official World Golf Ranking
Cuts Cut record of each golfer at this course in the last five seasons.
2014 – 2018 Columns Course history at this event in the last five seasons.
Cover Image Credit: USA Today Sports Images

About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on Twitter – @RG_Notorious