PGA First Look: Valspar Championship

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The PGA First Look is complete with a course preview, odds, salaries, Official World Golf Rankings, and course history.

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Event Preview

After a brief stint in Mexico, the PGA Tour heads back to Florida for the Valspar Championship. Before we get into the course specifics, let’s quickly recap the WGC-Mexico. Dustin Johnson dominated the front nine on Sunday and eventually built a four-shot lead. It was quickly erased after Jon Rahm made a move on the back nine and Rahm even held the lead after he birdied the par five 15th. Rahm ended up bogeying his next two holes, which opened the door for Johnson, who quickly birdied the same par five and regained the lead. Tommy Fleetwood shot four-under on the back nine and made a huge putt on the 18th to cut the lead to one stroke. Johnson put his drive in the fairway bunker, but hit a tremendous off-balance shot on the green and calmly two-putted for another win on the PGA Tour. If he continues this run of golf, he could be the number one ranked in the world for quite a while.

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This event has had a few different names throughout the years, but has been the Valspar Championship for each of the last three. While the name has changed, the course has been a mainstay for this event since 2000. The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort is a Par 71 that measures 7,340 yards. It is not your typical Par 71, as it features four par fives and five par threes. This is a course that plays a lot longer than 7,340 yards, as there are very few opportunities to hit driver off the tee. When you take the driver out of play, it lengthens the course drastically. Not only that, but four of the five par threes measure over 200 yards and all four of the par fives measure at least 550 yards.

This course features tree-lined fairways and tough to hit greens. Most people would think to target driving accuracy, but the bombers are going to hit their drivers sparingly, so it’s tough to trust that statistic. Rather than focusing on off the tee stats, I want golfers with good approach games, especially with their long irons. There are a number of doglegs on this course and it is anything but a bomber’s course. With the description of the course, it makes sense that it is routinely ranked in the top five in terms of difficulty on tour. Copperhead is home to the famous “Snake Pit” that is one of the toughest three hole stretches in golf. If your golfer heads to 16, 17, and 18 needing three pars to make the cut, the odds are stacked against him. All three holes play well over par each year.

In terms of the type of golfer I’m looking for, I want a strong approach game and will be putting an emphasis on Par 3 scoring. I will also be heavily factoring in course history, as the same golfers seem to play well here year in and year out.

Cut Rule: Top 70 and ties move on after the first two rounds.

Recent Winners of this Event: Charl Schwartzel (2016), Jordan Spieth (2015), John Senden (2014), Kevin Streelman (2013), Luke Donald (2012)

Key Statistics (In Order of Importance)

1) Strokes Gained Tee to Green
2) Birdie or Better %
3) Strokes Gained Approach
4) Bogey Avoidance
5) Par 3 Scoring

Salaries, Odds, and Course History (2012-2016)

Golfer Salary OWGR Odds to Win Odds +/- SGT2G SGPut Cuts 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012
Justin Thomas $11,900 7 10 0% 1.69 0.52 2/2 18 10 500 500 500
Henrik Stenson $11,700 6 11 0% 2/2 11 4 500 500 500
Matt Kuchar $10,200 20 26 -33% 0.61 0.35 5/5 11 33 38 14 10
Daniel Berger $10,100 36 27 -75% 0.22 0.61 1/2 11 72 500 500 500
Patrick Reed $9,700 12 27 -60% -0.25 0.56 2/3 7 2 500 130 500
Charles Howell $9,400 65 37 -67% 0.85 0.50 3/3 5 10 14 500 500
Bill Haas $9,200 44 26 43% 1.20 0.37 2/2 2 500 14 500 500
Ryan Moore $9,000 37 26 63% 0.23 0.43 2/4 3 5 500 142 124
Gary Woodland $8,900 34 27 33% 1.24 0.33 3/5 42 103 8 78 29
Charl Schwartzel $8,800 28 36 10% 1/2 1 500 500 500 133
Kevin Na $8,700 47 45 -27% 0.71 0.18 4/4 22 10 2 500 38
Webb Simpson $8,500 59 56 -67% 1.10 -0.34 2/4 85 500 96 17 10
Graham DeLaet $8,400 132 40 15% 0.39 0.74 3/4 5 500 8 17 115
Bubba Watson $8,300 16 43 14% -0.32 -0.52 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Sean O’Hair $8,200 79 64 -53% 0.48 0.40 3/4 500 2 74 69 124
Graeme McDowell $8,100 87 60 -31% 0.06 0.17 0/1 71 500 500 500 500
Patrick Rodgers $8,000 129 72 -76% 0.21 -0.58 0/1 94 500 500 500 500
Jason Dufner $7,900 70 44 28% 0.44 0.22 5/5 22 24 14 21 10
Billy Horschel $7,900 72 48 6% 0.93 -0.12 1/1 500 500 500 56 500
Russell Knox $7,800 21 47 20% -0.63 -0.13 3/3 56 33 25 500 500
Luke Donald $7,800 88 49 10% -0.09 0.78 5/5 22 53 4 4 1
Russell Henley $7,700 136 71 -23% 0.73 0.71 0/1 71 500 500 500 500
Tony Finau $7,700 77 77 -50% 1.08 -0.36 0/2 71 133 500 500 500
Stewart Cink $7,600 221 96 -71% 1.11 0.27 3/5 134 60 96 14 70
Jason Kokrak $7,600 103 86 -54% -0.02 -0.17 2/5 85 7 14 110 131
Wesley Bryan $7,500 78 46 42% 0.53 0.22 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Harris English $7,500 86 85 -38% 0.24 0.31 3/5 85 10 38 7 106
Seung-Yul Noh $7,500 235 98 -65% 0.06 0.24 1/3 42 500 500 120 115
Martin Laird $7,400 108 72 0% 1.14 0.66 3/4 85 33 500 70 77
Byeong-Hun An $7,400 48 53 34% 0.97 -0.28 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Steve Stricker $7,400 106 67 14% 1/1 7 500 500 500 500
Charley Hoffman $7,400 68 71 10% 0.59 -0.42 4/5 11 141 25 75 14
Kevin Streelman $7,400 134 103 -52% 0.29 -0.28 4/5 131 40 38 1 10
Lee McCoy $7,300 584 175 -100% 1/1 4 500 500 500 500
Trey Mullinax $7,300 316 193 -118% -0.18 0.34 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Seamus Power $7,300 317 224 -156% -0.17 0.57 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
K.J. Choi $7,300 180 197 -121% 0.05 -0.28 4/5 62 116 44 21 46
Si Woo Kim $7,300 63 207 -135% -2.63 -0.31 0/1 134 500 500 500 500
Jim Furyk $7,200 50 62 44% -0.10 0.47 4/4 500 40 20 7 2
J.J. Spaun $7,200 114 66 38% 0.39 0.24 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Brian Harman $7,200 102 89 3% -0.09 0.89 2/5 71 95 25 14 85
Daniel Summerhays $7,200 82 133 -44% 0.07 0.13 4/4 22 10 70 63 500
Billy Hurley $7,200 125 217 -113% -0.21 0.42 1/3 116 17 119 500 500
Grayson Murray $7,200 154 172 -69% -0.19 0.22 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Morgan Hoffmann $7,200 184 174 -72% -0.49 -0.09 1/3 104 116 25 500 500
Cody Gribble $7,200 198 224 -123% -0.72 0.81 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Ollie Schniederjans $7,100 128 76 32% 0.61 0.16 0/1 500 95 500 500 500
Nick Watney $7,100 351 79 26% 0.29 0.06 3/3 500 53 500 43 51
Luke List $7,100 188 138 -23% 1.20 -0.08 0/2 104 500 500 120 500
Shawn Stefani $7,100 355 179 -47% 0.28 -0.02 3/3 56 17 500 7 500
Michael Kim $7,100 255 218 -81% 0.14 0.78 0/1 138 500 500 500 500
David Hearn $7,100 195 268 -130% 0.04 -0.57 2/5 71 53 8 120 93
Derek Fathauer $7,100 196 254 -115% -0.88 0.83 0/2 94 85 500 500 500
George McNeill $7,100 510 229 -91% 4/5 11 127 7 30 46
Fredrik Jacobson $7,100 216 250 -113% 2/3 124 47 20 500 500
Smylie Kaufman $7,100 149 282 -138% -0.72 -0.57 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Chez Reavie $7,000 127 123 14% 0.53 0.45 3/4 22 127 500 63 20
Kyle Stanley $7,000 220 129 7% 1.68 -0.49 1/2 53 500 132 500 500
Jamie Lovemark $7,000 93 127 11% 0.38 0.30 2/2 37 500 500 500 44
Sung Kang $7,000 183 146 -11% 0.56 -0.32 2/2 22 500 500 500 55
John Senden $7,000 191 143 -7% 0.02 -0.33 2/5 71 85 1 90 38
JT Poston $7,000 248 136 0% 0.04 -0.07 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Nick Taylor $7,000 324 203 -37% -0.20 -0.03 1/2 94 24 500 500 500
Brian Stuard $7,000 143 213 -44% 0.27 -0.19 1/3 500 85 115 43 500
Ryan Blaum $7,000 358 242 -65% -0.12 0.36 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Ryo Ishikawa $7,000 112 217 -46% 0.11 -0.28 1/4 500 103 25 110 106
Patrick Cantlay $7,000 264 -81% 0/1 500 500 500 90 500
Hunter Mahan $7,000 541 350 -121% -1.63 -0.02 1/1 53 500 500 500 500
Lucas Glover $6,900 161 79 51% 1.44 -0.14 2/5 104 24 96 38 106
Chris Kirk $6,900 80 71 59% 0.12 0.73 1/1 42 500 500 500 500
Keegan Bradley $6,900 110 74 55% 0.80 -0.10 0/1 71 500 500 500 500
Scott Piercy $6,900 41 91 42% 0.62 -0.18 1/2 500 500 500 110 5
Scott Brown $6,900 115 90 43% -0.49 0.63 2/5 7 72 85 27 115
Scott Stallings $6,900 267 108 35% 0.09 -0.39 0/5 71 122 119 147 106
Michael Thompson $6,900 223 189 -6% -0.66 1.17 2/4 500 72 58 110 16
Jonas Blixt $6,900 251 236 -33% -0.42 0.20 2/4 22 122 85 38 500
Beau Hossler $6,900 271 -58% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Vijay Singh $6,900 222 317 -75% -0.67 -0.35 4/5 64 10 115 38 63
Ken Duke $6,900 330 294 -67% -0.42 -0.33 4/5 56 63 82 110 5
Andrew Loupe $6,900 290 514 -99% -2.18 -0.65 0/1 104 500 500 500 500
Adam Hadwin $6,800 98 98 48% 0.20 0.81 1/2 94 71 500 500 500
Robert Garrigus $6,800 211 125 38% 0.11 -0.21 4/4 500 47 4 56 2
David Lingmerth $6,800 85 113 43% 0.07 -0.13 2/2 500 500 58 51 500
Jim Herman $6,800 89 139 27% 0.69 -0.11 0/2 104 500 500 130 500
Soren Kjeldsen $6,800 66 131 32% -0.75 0.64 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Willy Wilcox $6,800 289 232 -12% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Ben Martin $6,800 208 276 -37% -0.70 -0.48 0/1 500 500 128 500 500
Brian Gay $6,800 511 314 -47% -0.64 0.64 2/4 139 500 77 120 55
Ernie Els $6,800 392 272 -36% -0.58 -0.07 1/4 128 95 85 500 5
Spencer Levin $6,800 287 422 -63% -1.40 -0.39 1/3 104 60 119 500 500
Steve Marino $6,800 417 436 -65% -0.92 -0.79 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Carl Pettersson $6,800 748 417 -60% -1.22 0.00 2/5 128 53 20 78 93
Hudson Swafford $6,700 92 120 49% -0.01 -0.16 1/2 56 72 500 500 500
Patton Kizzire $6,700 118 179 26% -0.73 0.52 1/1 33 500 500 500 500
Cameron Tringale $6,700 212 167 30% -0.31 0.15 4/5 131 17 25 3 46
Danny Lee $6,700 111 197 19% -0.05 -0.68 1/2 500 7 96 500 500
Chad Campbell $6,700 203 203 16% 0.12 -0.51 1/4 94 24 500 78 93
Harold Varner $6,700 130 200 17% 0.16 -0.65 0/1 104 500 500 500 500
Geoff Ogilvy $6,700 189 188 24% 0.00 -0.27 2/4 116 500 96 61 16
Kelly Kraft $6,700 170 221 8% 0.13 -0.21 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Bryce Molder $6,700 213 282 -20% -0.97 0.33 2/5 71 85 96 30 20
Brett Stegmaier $6,700 296 289 -23% -0.88 0.05 1/1 18 500 500 500 500
Chad Collins $6,700 305 264 -11% -0.85 0.23 1/3 94 500 38 500 138
J.J. Henry $6,700 481 372 -38% -0.49 -0.24 2/4 500 138 96 51 66
Cameron Smith $6,600 121 139 44% 0.71 0.52 1/1 42 500 500 500 500
John Huh $6,600 227 149 39% 0.33 0.18 2/5 22 33 96 90 131
James Hahn $6,600 74 129 49% 0.04 0.05 1/3 124 500 38 130 500
Cheng-Tsung Pan $6,600 122 146 41% -0.26 0.40 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Retief Goosen $6,600 257 265 -1% 4/5 11 69 44 104 20
Tyrone Van Aswegen $6,600 240 239 11% -0.24 -0.49 0/1 71 500 500 500 500
Boo Weekley $6,600 319 244 10% 0.26 -0.91 2/5 124 85 84 2 85
Troy Merritt $6,600 205 303 -12% 0.29 -0.11 1/2 104 6 500 500 500
Jon Curran $6,600 160 314 -13% -0.23 -0.26 1/2 116 40 500 500 500
Mark Hubbard $6,600 490 428 -27% -0.97 -0.36 1/1 64 500 500 500 500
Matt Every $6,600 858 717 -31% -4.08 -0.57 3/5 42 138 8 78 77
Steven Bowditch $6,600 497 753 -32% -2.26 -0.95 0/4 140 103 96 120 500
Bud Cauley $6,500 179 128 56% 0.68 -0.52 1/1 500 500 500 500 16
Ian Poulter $6,500 202 122 59% -0.29 0.28 2/2 67 24 500 500 500
Robert Streb $6,500 116 188 39% 0.06 -0.22 1/1 500 500 500 51 500
Richy Werenski $6,500 234 208 31% -0.12 -0.07 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Martin Flores $6,500 230 228 24% -0.27 0.48 1/4 500 72 96 51 115
Whee Kim $6,500 281 244 19% -0.01 0.20 1/1 53 500 500 500 500
Blayne Barber $6,500 239 244 19% -0.21 0.45 1/2 42 133 500 500 500
Ben Crane $6,500 414 258 13% -0.21 -0.29 1/4 104 116 32 104 500
Aaron Baddeley $6,500 153 325 -4% -0.60 -0.30 1/2 500 500 119 56 500
Kyle Reifers $6,500 173 331 -7% 0.26 -0.75 2/3 64 72 500 500 38
Ricky Barnes $6,500 253 381 -10% -1.13 0.12 2/4 124 53 77 78 500
Greg Chalmers $6,500 303 350 -8% -0.84 0.11 4/4 500 47 44 4 29
Alex Cejka $6,400 193 264 20% -0.51 -0.68 1/2 500 53 500 500 93
Sam Saunders $6,400 244 26% -0.60 -0.30 2/2 22 24 500 500 500
Zac Blair $6,400 272 249 23% 0.26 -0.35 0/2 134 72 500 500 500
Jason Bohn $6,400 275 265 18% -0.45 0.07 3/4 500 17 65 90 44
Bryson DeChambeau $6,400 151 294 11% 0.53 -0.96 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Johnson Wagner $6,400 214 325 5% -0.31 -0.01 0/1 500 500 132 500 500
Rod Pampling $6,400 144 325 5% 0.40 -0.51 0/2 500 85 500 500 93
Dominic Bozzelli $6,400 233 294 11% -0.30 -0.37 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Peter Malnati $6,400 380 419 -2% -0.63 0.24 0/1 85 500 500 500 500
Zach Wright $6,400 442 -5% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Jimmy Stanger $6,400 475 -5% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Rod Perry $6,400 1056 -9% 0/4 94 133 96 152 500

Color Coding
Course history in BLUE indicates a top ten finish.
Course history in GREEN indicates a top 25 finish.
Course history in YELLOW indicates a made cut with a finish outside of the top 25.
Course history in RED indicates a missed cut.

Legend

Term Description
OWGR Official World Golf Ranking
Odds +/- The percentage differential between a golfer’s salary rank and odds rank. The higher the %, the better.
SGT2G Strokes Gained Tee to Green in 2017.
SGP Strokes Gained Putting in 2017.
Cuts Cut record of each golfer at this course in the last five seasons.
2012 – 2016 Columns Course history at this event in the last five seasons.

About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious