PGA First Look: Waste Management Open

EDITOR’S NOTE: Click here to learn how you could win a trip to Augusta with the Tour Junkies and FantasyDraft!

The PGA First Look is complete with a course preview, odds, salaries, Official World Golf Rankings, and course history.

Click here to follow Notorious on Twitter.

Event Preview

After a fun event in San Diego, the PGA Tour heads to Scottsdale, Arizona for one of my favorite weeks of the year. The Waste Management Open features a strong field and more importantly, a strong crowd. More than 600,000 people attended the tournament last season, which made it the most attended golf tournament in the world. Yours truly had such a great time at the event that I am heading back this year. While most of the country is dealing with freezing temperatures, I will be drinking margaritas in 80 degree weather. If you are going to the tournament and happen to see me there, come say hello and talk some fantasy golf.

TPC Scottsdale is most known for its Stadium Course that is one of the highlights of the tournament and one of the only times during the season when fans can channel their inner Happy Gilmore. The par three 16th has a stadium that completely surrounds the hole. It holds 20,000 people and with the number of alcoholic beverages consumed here, it sounds more like 50,000 people. I’ll never forget some of the chants the crowd was yelling at the players after their tee shots. If there are any PGA Tour golfers reading this, I’ll let you in on a little secret — the crowd will be much nicer if you have some fun and play into the circus-like environment.

The course itself was re-designed in 2014 with re-surfacing of the greens, adding new hole locations, and re-arranging a few bunkers and tee boxes. The course has played significantly more difficult since the re-design, ranking 20th, 22nd, and 33rd in difficulty over the last three years. This used to be a bomber’s paradise, but that’s not necessarily the case anymore. The course is a Par 71 that measures 7,266 yards. It’s a desert course, but a little tighter than most. There are water hazards in play on seven of the holes and strategically placed bunkers that golfers will have to work around off the tee. The greens primarily consist of Bermudagrass, but it sounds like they play closer to Bentgrass greens.

This is one of the many tournaments where I will be completely ignoring putting statistics. The course has ranked inside of the top eight (out of 50 courses) in proximity to the hole in each of the last three seasons and we’ve seen bad putters perform well here year in and year out. Scrambling is fairly easy as well, which only places a bigger emphasis on ball strikers. While I don’t mind the traditional statistics that make up ball striking (total driving + greens in regulation), I prefer to look at the new statistics (strokes gained off the tee and on approaches). If you combine the two, you get a strokes gained ball striking metric that should be predictive this week.

There are three par fives on the course this week and they are all reachable. If you want to contend here, you have to make birdies on the par fives. If you are looking for a sneaky statistic to include in your analysis, I might take a peak at going for the green, which tells us how often a player reaches a par five in two when going for it. The weather should be pristine this week, although it’s worth noting that this winter has been much drier for Arizona. We should see a firmer course than we did a year ago, so we may see the winner end up in the 14 or 15-under range rather than 17-under.

Good luck this week and watch for me on the par three 16th.

Cut Rule:Top 70 and ties move on after the first two rounds. The MDF rule is in effect if more than 78 golfers make the initial cut.

Recent Winners of this Event:Hideki Matsuyama (2017 & 2016), Brooks Koepka (2015), Kevin Stadler (2014), Phil Mickelson (2013)

Key Statistics (In Order of Importance)

1) Strokes Gained Approach
2) Strokes Gained Off the Tee or Total Driving
3) Birdie or Better %
4) Par 5 Scoring
5) Proximity

Salaries, Odds, and Course History (2013-2017)

Golfer DK Salary FD Salary FDRFT Salary OWGR Odds DK Odds FD Odds FDRFT Odds 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013
Hideki Matsuyama $11,500 $12,400 $17,500 5 9 -100% 0% 33% 1 1 2 4 500
Jordan Spieth $11,400 $12,500 $17,700 3 9 50% 0% 0% 9 500 7 500 500
Jon Rahm $11,000 $12,200 $17,600 2 10 0% 0% -50% 16 500 5 500 500
Rickie Fowler $10,400 $11,900 $16,800 7 13 0% 20% 0% 4 2 46 85 75
Justin Thomas $10,300 $12,000 $16,700 4 14 0% -25% 0% 76 83 17 500 500
Marc Leishman $9,700 $11,300 $15,400 14 27 0% 14% 0% 24 500 500 99 92
Daniel Berger $9,500 $10,800 $15,000 31 36 0% 36% 22% 7 58 10 500 500
Alexander Noren $9,200 $11,400 $15,300 16 37 -13% -50% -29% 500 500 500 500 500
Tony Finau $9,100 $11,000 $15,200 37 36 11% 20% 0% 91 91 22 500 500
Webb Simpson $8,900 $11,100 $14,900 40 38 0% -11% 0% 2 14 500 10 500
J.B. Holmes $8,700 $9,900 $14,700 75 40 0% 45% 8% 24 6 66 58 75
Gary Woodland $8,600 $10,300 $14,800 53 43 0% 14% -9% 100 33 77 37 16
Phil Mickelson $8,500 $10,300 $14,200 49 49 -23% -14% 0% 16 11 94 42 1
Matt Kuchar $8,400 $11,200 $14,300 19 48 -7% -88% -7% 9 500 30 500 500
Austin Cook $8,300 $10,000 $14,400 115 53 -20% 5% -38% 500 500 500 500 500
Ryan Moore $8,200 $9,700 $13,500 66 72 -100% -52% 0% 61 11 17 6 4
Harris English $8,100 $8,500 $14,100 212 57 -18% 68% -5% 57 3 40 9 57
Byeong-Hun An $8,000 $9,200 $14,100 91 46 22% 61% 26% 6 500 500 500 500
Shane Lowry $7,900 $9,600 $13,600 67 64 -37% -4% 13% 16 6 500 500 500
Ryan Palmer $7,900 $9,300 $13,900 92 60 -16% 33% 4% 113 24 2 48 5
Brendan Steele $7,800 $9,600 $14,200 51 53 19% 32% -6% 16 17 26 6 6
Zach Johnson $7,700 $10,600 $14,300 48 45 41% -8% 7% 12 14 10 500 500
Kevin Chappell $7,700 $10,100 $13,800 33 63 -14% -39% 0% 75 83 30 85 24
Patton Kizzire $7,700 $9,600 $14,000 56 58 5% 16% 5% 57 60 500 500 500
Kyle Stanley $7,600 $9,200 $13,800 46 62 4% 33% 4% 36 45 77 130 74
Patrick Reed $7,600 $10,300 $14,200 24 55 24% -36% -19% 68 500 40 19 500
Russell Knox $7,600 $9,400 $13,100 78 84 -60% -33% -3% 106 500 15 500 500
Russell Henley $7,600 $9,400 $13,400 50 77 -36% -13% -3% 16 83 59 85 67
Ollie Schniederjans $7,600 $9,100 $13,300 111 82 -52% 5% -6% 24 500 500 500 500
Charley Hoffman $7,500 $9,700 $13,900 23 65 10% -29% -17% 24 51 53 61 84
Scott Piercy $7,500 $9,500 $13,800 114 67 7% 0% -12% 73 45 103 15 3
J.J. Spaun $7,500 $8,800 $13,400 117 75 -10% 34% 0% 4 500 500 500 500
Bubba Watson $7,500 $9,500 $13,100 108 88 -37% -46% -5% 91 14 2 2 15
Adam Hadwin $7,500 $9,700 $13,700 54 68 0% -43% -7% 12 17 120 500 500
Keegan Bradley $7,400 $9,400 $14,100 64 60 34% 23% -21% 76 24 17 112 24
Chez Reavie $7,400 $9,300 $13,400 93 83 -11% -18% -18% 76 71 77 500 500
Xander Schauffele $7,400 $9,100 $13,200 25 80 0% 13% 8% 500 500 500 500 500
Cameron Smith $7,400 $9,200 $13,600 58 68 17% 19% 3% 42 104 500 500 500
Lucas Glover $7,400 $8,500 $12,400 87 123 -63% 8% -8% 36 500 53 107 54
Hudson Swafford $7,400 $8,800 $12,300 90 128 -80% -26% -13% 500 71 500 500 500
Chris Kirk $7,400 $8,500 $12,200 180 121 -60% 10% 5% 34 37 500 76 24
Bill Haas $7,400 $9,700 $12,400 65 119 -54% -157% -2% 500 500 76 34 6
Francesco Molinari $7,300 $10,200 $13,700 22 69 28% -82% -11% 500 500 22 500 500
Bud Cauley $7,300 $9,300 $13,000 113 81 16% -9% 12% 47 500 500 500 24
Brandt Snedeker $7,300 $10,500 $13,300 68 81 14% -185% -3% 500 33 10 61 2
Ryan Armour $7,300 $8,200 $11,800 165 147 -56% 4% 3% 500 500 500 500 500
Jamie Lovemark $7,300 $9,000 $11,800 104 156 -63% -56% -1% 71 104 500 500 500
Retief Goosen $7,300 $8,100 $11,500 328 188 -70% -1% 1% 125 51 74 85 500
Steve Stricker $7,300 $9,000 $11,600 130 192 -72% -64% -3% 42 71 500 500 500
John Huh $7,300 $7,900 $11,700 285 138 -51% 22% 8% 34 6 108 85 92
Emiliano Grillo $7,200 $8,600 $12,700 73 93 18% 29% 7% 63 45 500 500 500
Luke List $7,200 $8,300 $12,300 132 119 -6% 21% 4% 91 71 500 500 126
James Hahn $7,200 $8,700 $12,800 61 97 14% 19% -5% 106 17 59 99 16
Ben Martin $7,200 $8,700 $11,400 218 185 -41% -33% 4% 100 71 40 500 500
Andrew Landry $7,200 $8,200 $11,900 106 147 -31% 4% 0% 500 500 500 500 500
Harold Varner $7,200 $7,800 $10,600 161 292 -86% -4% 2% 68 119 500 500 500
Wesley Bryan $7,200 $8,700 $11,400 70 192 -45% -37% 1% 42 500 500 500 500
Robert Streb $7,200 $7,900 $11,300 170 225 -61% 1% -5% 100 37 10 500 500
Jason Kokrak $7,100 $9,100 $12,800 129 98 22% -15% -10% 76 91 40 15 92
Sung Kang $7,100 $8,000 $11,600 85 173 -20% 9% 1% 12 500 500 500 500
Martin Flores $7,100 $7,700 $11,200 293 225 -39% 16% -1% 500 500 46 78 57
Kevin Tway $7,100 $8,100 $11,300 197 206 -32% -8% 0% 500 500 500 85 500
Michael Kim $7,100 $7,700 $11,200 321 202 -31% 21% 5% 24 45 500 500 500
Tyrone Van Aswegen $7,100 $7,900 $10,600 336 342 -73% -23% -5% 71 17 500 500 500
Camilo Villegas $7,100 $7,600 $10,300 378 388 -88% -7% -3% 24 71 125 37 500
K.J. Choi $7,100 $7,300 $10,200 698 425 -98% -1% -2% 91 17 22 42 36
D.A. Points $7,100 $7,100 $10,100 290 546 -110% -3% 0% 500 500 500 85 92
Jesse Mueller $7,100 $7,000 $10,100 591 -114% -3% -2% 500 500 500 500 500
Ian Poulter $7,000 $8,900 $12,700 57 99 32% 2% -4% 500 104 500 99 500
Robert Garrigus $7,000 $8,000 $11,900 202 154 0% 12% -3% 36 500 77 53 11
Bryson DeChambeau $7,000 $9,000 $12,200 99 126 13% -33% -2% 500 500 500 500 500
Grayson Murray $7,000 $8,700 $12,100 118 129 7% -19% 0% 36 500 500 500 500
Julian Suri $7,000 $8,100 $12,500 63 107 30% 33% 4% 500 500 500 500 500
Brian Stuard $7,000 $8,500 $12,200 177 126 13% 3% -2% 16 500 10 53 500
Nick Watney $7,000 $8,300 $11,000 406 238 -29% -31% -1% 500 500 94 29 43
Scott Brown $7,000 $8,400 $11,200 123 225 -19% -24% -1% 52 91 500 500 500
Ricky Barnes $7,000 $10,700 344 300 -41% -5% 121 83 73 37 130
Beau Hossler $7,000 $12,800 255 224 -17% -93% 500 500 500 500 500
Chesson Hadley $6,900 $8,900 $12,700 79 96 46% 10% 4% 500 60 120 500 500
Kevin Na $6,900 $9,100 $12,600 95 108 37% -25% -4% 16 24 26 19 36
William McGirt $6,900 $9,200 $12,200 98 123 28% -58% 3% 24 24 30 19 32
Si Woo Kim $6,900 $9,100 $12,500 42 107 39% -20% 4% 121 67 500 500 500
Vaughn Taylor $6,900 $8,100 $10,700 324 292 -20% -32% -3% 52 500 500 500 500
John Peterson $6,900 $7,800 $11,300 688 233 -10% 4% -12% 12 500 500 61 500
Tom Lovelady $6,900 $7,400 $10,700 349 267 -16% 18% 0% 500 500 500 500 500
Kelly Kraft $6,900 $7,600 $10,400 221 342 -29% 2% 3% 500 500 500 500 500
Jonas Blixt $6,900 $7,400 $10,500 289 338 -28% 10% 0% 52 104 103 34 75
Cody Gribble $6,900 $7,500 $10,600 313 308 -24% 10% -1% 91 500 500 500 500
Geoff Ogilvy $6,900 $7,300 $10,300 342 358 -35% 8% 1% 47 51 46 29 126
Charlie Beljan $6,900 $7,000 $10,000 754 -63% -6% 0% 66 115 66 78 120
Kevin Streelman $6,800 $8,600 $12,500 167 111 43% 12% -4% 76 71 30 53 107
Peter Uihlein $6,800 $8,700 $12,600 59 97 52% 19% 8% 500 500 500 500 500
Martin Laird $6,800 $8,400 $12,200 137 123 37% 14% 3% 7 41 5 19 92
Brandon Harkins $6,800 $8,600 $12,300 225 110 44% 14% 9% 500 500 500 500 500
Billy Horschel $6,800 $8,800 $12,400 72 115 42% -6% 0% 24 24 30 85 11
Anirban Lahiri $6,800 $8,800 $12,100 71 128 32% -24% 3% 500 33 500 500 500
Scott Stallings $6,800 $7,400 $10,700 305 279 -2% 17% -1% 500 91 115 99 92
Hunter Mahan $6,800 $8,000 $11,200 610 217 12% -3% 1% 63 91 30 4 16
Nick Taylor $6,800 $7,800 $11,100 200 242 1% 1% -5% 106 65 59 500 500
Chad Campbell $6,800 $7,900 $10,300 271 371 -20% -31% -1% 106 17 40 500 72
Richy Werenski $6,800 $7,800 $10,300 282 400 -24% -24% -5% 500 500 500 500 500
Dominic Bozzelli $6,800 $7,900 $10,300 274 383 -21% -33% -2% 500 500 500 500 500
Peter Malnati $6,800 $7,800 $10,100 703 559 -37% -37% -1% 500 71 500 500 500
Rory Sabbatini $6,700 $7,700 $11,400 331 206 25% 20% -4% 500 500 22 112 49
Danny Lee $6,700 $8,100 $11,000 131 227 18% -18% 3% 127 4 108 99 500
Cheng-Tsung Pan $6,700 $7,800 $12,000 184 140 37% 27% 0% 113 500 500 500 500
Tyler Duncan $6,700 $7,200 $10,200 455 -14% -1% -3% 500 500 500 500 500
Blayne Barber $6,700 $7,600 $10,400 375 350 -1% -1% 0% 91 45 500 500 500
Chris Stroud $6,700 $7,900 $11,000 171 235 15% -6% 0% 500 71 94 19 62
Wyndham Clark $6,700 $7,800 $10,700 890 288 10% -3% -2% 500 500 500 500 500
Benjamin Silverman $6,700 $7,700 $10,500 265 358 -3% -9% -6% 500 500 500 500 500
Matt Every $6,700 $7,000 $10,200 732 417 -11% 6% 0% 113 24 125 37 9
Patrick Rodgers $6,700 $8,100 $11,100 187 229 17% -19% 0% 118 17 500 500 500
Whee Kim $6,700 $7,600 $10,400 121 346 0% 0% 1% 500 56 500 500 500
Fabian Gomez $6,700 $7,500 $10,200 496 479 -17% -12% -6% 100 104 500 500 500
Brian Gay $6,600 $8,000 $11,200 194 200 34% 3% 6% 47 64 500 61 24
Ryan Blaum $6,600 $7,900 $11,000 327 252 22% -10% -3% 500 500 500 500 500
Morgan Hoffmann $6,600 $7,600 $10,500 204 350 9% -1% -4% 36 91 53 15 500
Aaron Baddeley $6,600 $7,700 $10,500 240 325 14% -2% 1% 76 91 17 48 65
J.J. Henry $6,600 $7,400 $10,300 469 388 4% 1% -3% 66 91 500 122 67
Alex Cejka $6,600 $8,000 $10,600 205 317 15% -27% -2% 74 500 500 500 500
Smylie Kaufman $6,600 $7,500 $10,200 260 417 1% -6% 0% 106 104 500 500 500
Sang-Moon Bae $6,600 $7,700 $10,300 408 2% -16% -6% 500 500 77 61 49
Mac Hughes $6,600 $7,900 $10,200 154 457 -3% -45% -4% 106 500 500 500 500
Billy Hurley $6,600 $7,100 $10,100 258 692 -9% -6% -2% 500 500 77 500 500
Derek Fathauer $6,600 $7,200 $10,200 355 450 -2% 0% -3% 500 500 94 500 500
Colt Knost $6,600 $7,000 $10,200 600 467 -4% 1% -5% 500 24 500 500 43
Greg Chalmers $6,600 $7,000 $10,200 468 492 -6% -1% -7% 100 500 500 15 36
Andrew Loupe $6,600 $7,000 $10,100 721 733 -10% -5% -3% 129 500 108 500 500

Color Coding
Course history in BLUE indicates a top ten finish.
Course history in GREEN indicates a top 25 finish.
Course history in YELLOW indicates a made cut with a finish outside of the top 25.
Course history in RED indicates a missed cut.

Legend

Term Description
Site Odds The percentage differential between a golfer’s salary rank and odds rank. The higher the %, the better.
OWGR Official World Golf Ranking
Cuts Cut record of each golfer at this course in the last five seasons.
2013 – 2016 Columns Course history at this event in the last five seasons.

About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on Twitter – @RG_Notorious