PGA First Look: WGC-HSBC Champions
The PGA First Look is complete with a course preview, odds, salaries, Official World Golf Rankings, and course history.
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Justin Thomas is on such an incredible run. Even with a large break looming, he showed up at the CJ Cup and took home yet another trophy. He is typically known as a bomber that dominates the easier tracks, but he put on a magnificent short game display in South Korea. He was getting up and down from everywhere on the course, he was making big putts, and he even chipped in a four-footer (didn’t want to putt through a ball mark on the green). Whether or not he can sustain this level of success is still up in the air, but he certainly has all of the tools to be the best golfer in the world.
This week we head to Shanghai, China for the first WGC event of the season. This is the final event of the Asian swing, so it’s our last chance to enjoy some night time golf on this side of the world. This will likely be the best field that we see for the next couple of months. Most of the golfers in the field had to be inside the top 50 in the Official Golf World Rankings or they had to finish high in the FedEx Cup or the Race to Dubai. There are a few golfers that got into the field by the way of an exemption. There are only 78 golfers total playing this week, so once again, there will not be a cut after the second round. Barring a withdrawal, all golfers will play four rounds.
Sheshan International Golf Club is cited as one of the best golf courses in all of Asia. To be a member here, it costs around $400,000 US dollars a year and there’s a lengthy waiting list. The course itself is a Par 72 that measures 7,266 yards. The course features four par fives, three of which are reachable by the majority of the field with a good drive off the tee. There is a reachable par four on the back nine and five par fours that measure between 450-500 yards. All four of the par threes measure between 200-225 yards, so long iron play will be critical on a number of holes. This is a track that is meant to test all aspects of a golfer’s game, which is why we’ve seen such a mix of players perform well here in the past.
The course features tree-lined fairways with water in play on 11 of the 18 holes. The fairways are average width compared to other tournaments on the PGA Tour, but they are slightly tougher to hit than most. The same can be said about the greens. The good news is that scrambling is much easier here than at most tracks. Distance is an advantage here, but only if you can keep it in the fairway. We’ve seen bombers (Dustin Johnson and Bubba Watson) and shorter hitters (Francesco Molinari and Russell Knox) succeed here, but hitting fairways at a high rate is a common occurrence at the top of the leaderboard.
On average, the course plays more difficult than you’d imagine when you see that the winning score has been between 16 and 21 under in all but one editions of the tournament. With so much water in play, there will be a lot of good rounds and a lot of bad rounds. With no cut this week, we are going to see a huge discrepancy in scoring between the top and bottom of the leaderboard. It will be a birdie-fest for those that are dialed in tee-to-green and a bogey-fest for those that can’t hit the ball straight.
I wanted to note a couple of trends at this tournament. Bubba Watson was the only winner that didn’t play in the previous two weeks heading into the event. In theory, this should give an edge to those that played at the CIMB Classic, the CJ Cup, the Italian Open, and/or the Andalucia Valderrama Masters. Seven of the last eight winners were members of the Ryder Cup or Presidents Cup that season. The only exception was Russell Knox, who probably should have been on the team.
This is a rare week where I will be focusing less on statistics and more on recent form and a golfer’s history playing in China. The Euro Tour golfers rarely have good statistics on the PGA Tour because they only play a few events each year and they are typically on the toughest courses possible. This skews the stats in the wrong direction. If anything, I’m giving an edge to the Euro Tour players this week because most of them have more experience playing in China than the golfers from America.
Cut Rule:Only 78 golfers in the field this week. There will not be a cut.
Recent Winners of this Event:Hideki Matsuyama (2016), Russell Knox (2015), Bubba Watson (2014), Dustin Johnson (2013)
Key Statistics (In Order of Importance)
1) Strokes Gained Off the Tee
2) Strokes Gained Approach
3) Par 5 Scoring
4) Birdie or Better %
5) Bogey Avoidance
Salaries, Odds, and Course History (2013-2016)
| Golfer | DK Salary | FD Salary | FDRFT Salary | OWGR | Odds | DK Odds | FD Odds | FDRFT Odds | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dustin Johnson | $11,700 | $10,200 | $19,300 | 1 | 8 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 35 | 5 | 500 | 1 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | $11,400 | $9,400 | $18,600 | 4 | 10 | 0% | 33% | 0% | 1 | 500 | 41 | 500 |
| Justin Rose | $10,600 | $8,400 | $17,200 | 13 | 19 | -100% | 40% | 0% | 500 | 500 | 48 | 5 |
| Jason Day | $10,200 | $9,600 | $17,500 | 8 | 16 | 25% | -50% | 25% | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Jon Rahm | $10,000 | $9,300 | $17,500 | 5 | 16 | 40% | 25% | 25% | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Marc Leishman | $9,900 | $8,700 | $17,700 | 12 | 16 | 17% | 38% | -67% | 500 | 11 | 9 | 500 |
| Brooks Koepka | $9,700 | $8,900 | $16,900 | 11 | 19 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 40 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Henrik Stenson | $9,600 | $9,000 | $16,700 | 9 | 24 | -13% | -50% | 0% | 2 | 11 | 24 | 31 |
| Paul Casey | $9,400 | $9,200 | $16,800 | 15 | 20 | 11% | -60% | 0% | 12 | 23 | 500 | 20 |
| Matthew Fitzpatrick | $9,200 | $7,000 | $16,200 | 35 | 34 | -80% | 36% | -20% | 16 | 7 | 500 | 500 |
| Pat Perez | $9,100 | $7,800 | $16,300 | 18 | 30 | -18% | 24% | 0% | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Patrick Cantlay | $8,900 | $7,300 | $15,800 | 72 | 38 | -83% | 0% | -5% | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Phil Mickelson | $8,800 | $8,200 | $16,300 | 32 | 30 | -8% | -17% | -8% | 500 | 500 | 500 | 14 |
| Xander Schauffele | $8,700 | $7,300 | $16,200 | 29 | 34 | -36% | 14% | -27% | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | $8,600 | $7,600 | $16,100 | 19 | 33 | -13% | 15% | 11% | 500 | 30 | 24 | 18 |
| Patrick Reed | $8,500 | $7,800 | $16,200 | 22 | 33 | 0% | 6% | -7% | 60 | 7 | 22 | 500 |
| Ross Fisher | $8,400 | $7,200 | $16,600 | 33 | 26 | 35% | 56% | 0% | 6 | 3 | 500 | 500 |
| Daniel Berger | $8,300 | $8,200 | $15,800 | 27 | 38 | -17% | -75% | 0% | 2 | 11 | 500 | 500 |
| Tyrrell Hatton | $8,200 | $8,300 | $16,700 | 17 | 25 | 47% | 9% | -11% | 23 | 54 | 500 | 500 |
| Rafael Cabrera-Bello | $8,100 | $8,100 | $15,200 | 21 | 50 | -20% | -60% | 0% | 19 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Francesco Molinari | $8,000 | $7,500 | $16,400 | 20 | 29 | 43% | 43% | 0% | 6 | 500 | 500 | 21 |
| Adam Scott | $7,900 | $8,600 | $15,500 | 25 | 45 | -5% | -156% | 0% | 14 | 70 | 12 | 500 |
| Alexander Noren | $7,900 | $7,300 | $15,100 | 16 | 52 | -18% | -18% | -4% | 12 | 54 | 500 | 500 |
| Lucas Glover | $7,800 | $6,200 | 84 | 67 | -25% | 14% | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | ||
| Matt Kuchar | $7,700 | $8,200 | $16,200 | 14 | 31 | 40% | -25% | 0% | 21 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Tony Finau | $7,700 | $8,000 | $16,100 | 44 | 35 | 20% | -25% | -5% | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Branden Grace | $7,600 | $7,700 | $15,100 | 45 | 51 | 7% | -32% | 0% | 30 | 5 | 500 | 39 |
| Russell Henley | $7,600 | $6,300 | $15,000 | 48 | 56 | 0% | 21% | 0% | 500 | 500 | 35 | 500 |
| Peter Uihlein | $7,600 | $6,100 | $14,000 | 69 | 79 | -33% | 3% | 0% | 500 | 500 | 500 | 55 |
| Paul Dunne | $7,600 | $5,400 | $14,300 | 81 | 76 | -30% | 24% | -6% | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Thomas Pieters | $7,500 | $7,100 | $14,700 | 34 | 62 | 6% | -7% | -4% | 14 | 23 | 500 | 500 |
| Chez Reavie | $7,500 | $6,800 | $14,400 | 91 | 71 | -3% | -7% | -3% | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Kyle Stanley | $7,500 | $6,600 | $13,900 | 53 | 85 | -26% | -18% | -3% | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Alexander Levy | $7,500 | $5,600 | $13,500 | 70 | 102 | -29% | 9% | -3% | 58 | 500 | 14 | 500 |
| Kiradech Aphibarnrat | $7,500 | $5,800 | $14,500 | 103 | 70 | 0% | 24% | -3% | 500 | 30 | 500 | 55 |
| Charl Schwartzel | $7,400 | $6,900 | $14,400 | 31 | 74 | 6% | -17% | -10% | 30 | 35 | 64 | 500 |
| Brian Harman | $7,400 | $7,200 | $14,300 | 28 | 72 | 8% | -32% | 0% | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Jhonattan Vegas | $7,400 | $5,200 | $12,300 | 39 | 175 | -36% | 4% | 0% | 45 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Scott Hend | $7,400 | $5,100 | $12,500 | 93 | 168 | -31% | 11% | -2% | 54 | 19 | 500 | 21 |
| Graeme Storm | $7,400 | $5,000 | $12,200 | 134 | 194 | -53% | 4% | -2% | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Bill Haas | $7,300 | $6,800 | $14,700 | 43 | 62 | 32% | 7% | 0% | 4 | 500 | 48 | 21 |
| Bernd Wiesberger | $7,300 | $6,000 | $14,200 | 40 | 80 | 10% | 5% | -6% | 35 | 17 | 500 | 500 |
| Jordan L. Smith | $7,300 | $5,800 | $12,800 | 76 | 139 | -5% | -5% | -5% | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Thorbjorn Olesen | $7,300 | $6,200 | $14,000 | 88 | 82 | 7% | -9% | -6% | 500 | 19 | 6 | 500 |
| Si Woo Kim | $7,300 | $5,100 | $12,300 | 41 | 190 | -32% | -2% | -10% | 63 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Wesley Bryan | $7,300 | $5,100 | $12,000 | 55 | 221 | -41% | -9% | -2% | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Hudson Swafford | $7,200 | $5,300 | $12,300 | 85 | 178 | -9% | -4% | -4% | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Shugo Imahira | $7,200 | $5,100 | $12,500 | 98 | 179 | -11% | 2% | -13% | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Hideto Tanihara | $7,200 | $5,700 | $12,300 | 57 | 184 | -13% | -23% | -8% | 54 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Fabrizio Zanotti | $7,200 | $5,400 | $12,200 | 112 | 210 | -21% | -24% | -6% | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Matthew Southgate | $7,200 | $5,300 | $11,400 | 132 | 309 | -38% | -33% | -5% | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Phachara Khongwatmai | $7,200 | $4,500 | $11,200 | 239 | 335 | -43% | 1% | -2% | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Hyunwoo Ryu | $7,200 | $4,500 | $11,700 | 153 | 259 | -30% | 10% | -2% | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Hao-Tong Li | $7,100 | $5,900 | $13,300 | 66 | 108 | 24% | -3% | -3% | 63 | 7 | 35 | 39 |
| Charles Howell | $7,100 | $12,800 | 67 | 138 | 22% | -2% | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | ||
| Adam Hadwin | $7,100 | $6,700 | $12,800 | 51 | 140 | 19% | -38% | -7% | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Mike Lorenzo-Vera | $7,100 | $5,000 | $12,300 | 125 | 169 | 11% | 16% | 2% | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Haydn Porteous | $7,100 | $4,700 | $11,800 | 214 | 246 | -11% | 3% | -2% | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| David Lipsky | $7,100 | $4,900 | $11,900 | 147 | 237 | -9% | 0% | -2% | 500 | 500 | 56 | 500 |
| Zecheng Dou | $7,100 | $4,500 | $10,800 | 285 | 418 | -28% | -1% | 1% | 40 | 51 | 69 | 500 |
| Yan-Wie Liu | $7,100 | $4,500 | $10,600 | 629 | 859 | -44% | -15% | -1% | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Richie Ramsay | $7,000 | $5,200 | $12,800 | 135 | 146 | 27% | 12% | -10% | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Ryan Fox | $7,000 | $4,700 | $12,500 | 115 | 175 | 21% | 21% | -7% | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Richard Sterne | $7,000 | $5,400 | $12,700 | 122 | 158 | 26% | 0% | -2% | 60 | 500 | 500 | 39 |
| Xin-Jun Zhang | $7,000 | $4,900 | $10,700 | 300 | 575 | -19% | -25% | 0% | 21 | 46 | 500 | 500 |
| Daisuke Kataoka | $7,000 | $4,600 | $11,300 | 146 | 314 | -6% | -2% | -3% | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Gavin Green | $7,000 | $4,500 | $12,200 | 166 | 203 | 10% | 18% | -4% | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Brandon Stone | $7,000 | $5,500 | $11,600 | 126 | 262 | 0% | -38% | -2% | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Yi Cao | $7,000 | $4,500 | $11,100 | 1066 | 838 | -24% | -13% | -15% | 500 | 74 | 500 | 500 |
| Chan Kim | $6,900 | $6,100 | $11,400 | 102 | 297 | 10% | -70% | -2% | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Ashun Wu | $6,900 | $4,700 | $11,300 | 300 | 306 | 9% | -3% | 0% | 23 | 58 | 14 | 68 |
| Poom Saksansin | $6,900 | $4,500 | $10,800 | 211 | 500 | -3% | -6% | -3% | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Andrew Dodt | $6,900 | $4,800 | $11,000 | 174 | 418 | 1% | -13% | 0% | 500 | 68 | 500 | 500 |
| Ashley Hall | $6,900 | $4,500 | $10,700 | 483 | 635 | -7% | -10% | -1% | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Michael Hendry | $6,900 | $4,600 | $11,100 | 142 | 376 | 3% | -5% | -1% | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Wen-Chong Liang | $6,900 | $4,600 | $10,700 | 396 | 684 | -9% | -17% | -3% | 47 | 58 | 48 | 15 |
| Shiv Chawrasia | $6,900 | $4,500 | $10,800 | 266 | 479 | -1% | -4% | -1% | 500 | 46 | 500 | 500 |
| Matthew Griffin | $6,900 | $4,500 | $10,800 | 503 | 526 | -4% | -7% | -4% | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
Color Coding
Course history in BLUE indicates a top ten finish.
Course history in GREEN indicates a top 25 finish.
Course history in YELLOW indicates a made cut with a finish outside of the top 25.
Course history in RED indicates a missed cut.
Legend
| Term | Description |
|---|---|
| Site Odds | The percentage differential between a golfer’s salary rank and odds rank. The higher the %, the better. |
| OWGR | Official World Golf Ranking |
| Cuts | Cut record of each golfer at this course in the last five seasons. |
| 2013 – 2016 Columns | Course history at this event in the last five seasons. |