PGA First Look: WGC-Mexico Championship
The PGA First Look is complete with a course preview, odds, salaries, Official World Golf Rankings, and course history.
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Course Preview
It’s always good to see Rickie Fowler win golf tournaments. The sport is better when he is relevant, although there isn’t a single player that can move the needle quite like Tiger Woods (even if he can only play nine holes at a time these days). Fowler looked like he was struggling for a bit on the front nine, but he made some tremendous putts that gave him a confidence boost. The Honda Classic was the third event in a row where a golfer won by at least four strokes. It’s also the third event in a row that a top ten golfer in the world won. A few of the notable top ten finishes last week were: Gary Woodland, Billy Horschel, Martin Kaymer, and Tyrell Hatton.
This week the PGA Tour heads to Mexico for the WGC-Mexico Championship. This event features the strongest field that we have seen all season, as 49 of the top 50 golfers in the world are playing. Jason Day is the lone exception, after withdrawing with two ear infections and the flu. This used to be the WGC-Cadillac Championship that was held at Trump National Doral in Florida. The irony of this tournament moving to Mexico when Donald Trump became president isn’t lost on me. There are a lot of unknowns this week because other than Roberto Diaz, there isn’t a single golfer in the field that has played on this course in a competitive manner. The event will be held at the Club de Golf Chapultepec in Mexico City. Before we get into the course specifics, we need to mention the elevation. The course is at 7,600 feet, which is more than 2,000 feet above the Mile-High city (Denver).
The course is a Par 71 that measures 7,330 yards. This looks like a lengthy course on paper, but it sounds like with the elevation change, it will play closer to 6,600-6,800 yards. We could see 400-yard drives on a regular basis throughout the week. In terms of the course itself, it has Kikuyu grass on the fairways and Poa Annua grass on the greens (same as the greens on the West Coast swing). If you click here, you can see a hole-by-hole preview. As you can see from the pictures, the fairways are lined with trees. I have seen arguments for both driving distance and driving accuracy this week. On the one hand, the shorter hitters could have an advantage thanks to the elevation and the tree-lined fairways. On the other hand, the par fives are extremely long and there appear to be some drivable par fours for the longest of hitters. It also sounds like the rough won’t be a big issue, as it is considerably shorter than we’ve seen the last couple of weeks.
Rather than trying to predict the future, I will be leaning on a mix of accuracy and distance off the tee. Total driving is never a bad stat to lean on because the best in this stat category are fairly long and fairly accurate. Poa Annua generally evens the playing field a bit when it comes to putting, so I will be focusing on strong tee to green players, especially ones with a strong approach game. As always, we want to target birdie makers, as many are predicting the winning score to be close to 20-under par. Last but not least, with the course being a Par 71, I will be looking at par four scoring as well. Keep in mind that there is no course history to lean on this week, so try to find value by looking at recent form and the Vegas odds.
Cut Rule: There is no cut this week. All golfers are guaranteed to play four rounds barring a WD or DQ.
Recent Winners of this Event: Adam Scott (2016), Dustin Johnson (2015), Patrick Reed (2014), Tiger Woods (2013), Justin Rose (2012)
Key Statistics (In Order of Importance)
1) Strokes Gained Tee to Green
2) Birdie or Better %
3) Total Driving
4) Strokes Gained Approach
5) Par 4 Scoring
Salaries and Odds (No Course History)
| Golfer | Salary | OWGR | Odds to Win | + / – % Diff. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dustin Johnson | $12,500 | 1 | 7 | 0% |
| Jordan Spieth | $11,500 | 6 | 8 | 0% |
| Rory McIlroy | $10,900 | 3 | 12 | 0% |
| Hideki Matsuyama | $10,700 | 4 | 13 | 0% |
| Henrik Stenson | $10,300 | 5 | 14 | 0% |
| Rickie Fowler | $9,900 | 9 | 18 | 0% |
| Justin Rose | $9,600 | 13 | 21 | 0% |
| Adam Scott | $9,200 | 7 | 23 | 0% |
| Jon Rahm | $9,000 | 38 | 29 | -11% |
| Justin Thomas | $8,700 | 8 | 32 | -10% |
| Sergio Garcia | $8,500 | 10 | 26 | 18% |
| Gary Woodland | $8,400 | 30 | 45 | -8% |
| Tyrrell Hatton | $8,300 | 17 | 45 | -8% |
| Francesco Molinari | $8,200 | 32 | 60 | -57% |
| Jason Dufner | $8,100 | 71 | 79 | -113% |
| Daniel Berger | $8,000 | 34 | 83 | -131% |
| Zach Johnson | $7,900 | 41 | 69 | -59% |
| Brendan Steele | $7,900 | 50 | 68 | -53% |
| Paul Casey | $7,800 | 16 | 43 | 37% |
| Brandt Snedeker | $7,800 | 24 | 47 | 21% |
| Patrick Reed | $7,700 | 12 | 53 | 10% |
| Brooks Koepka | $7,700 | 22 | 78 | -48% |
| Phil Mickelson | $7,600 | 23 | 51 | 26% |
| Kevin Kisner | $7,600 | 48 | 79 | -43% |
| Ryan Moore | $7,500 | 33 | 87 | -52% |
| Martin Kaymer | $7,500 | 45 | 49 | 36% |
| Byeong-Hun An | $7,500 | 46 | 77 | -20% |
| Rafael Cabrera-Bello | $7,400 | 26 | 82 | -29% |
| Tommy Fleetwood | $7,400 | 55 | 158 | -86% |
| Pat Perez | $7,400 | 67 | 91 | -50% |
| Brandon Stone | $7,400 | 69 | 183 | -104% |
| Sean O’Hair | $7,400 | 78 | 119 | -75% |
| Matt Kuchar | $7,300 | 20 | 57 | 36% |
| Emiliano Grillo | $7,300 | 28 | 69 | 15% |
| Matthew Fitzpatrick | $7,300 | 29 | 91 | -24% |
| Kevin Chappell | $7,300 | 39 | 139 | -55% |
| Jim Furyk | $7,300 | 47 | 88 | -18% |
| Alexander Noren | $7,200 | 11 | 80 | 11% |
| Louis Oosthuizen | $7,200 | 25 | 52 | 53% |
| Yuta Ikeda | $7,200 | 37 | 319 | -89% |
| Soren Kjeldsen | $7,200 | 64 | 231 | -63% |
| Richard Sterne | $7,200 | 90 | 249 | -71% |
| Bernd Wiesberger | $7,100 | 36 | 90 | 7% |
| Kevin Na | $7,100 | 44 | 108 | -9% |
| Ross Fisher | $7,100 | 72 | 201 | -40% |
| Roberto Castro | $7,100 | 84 | 217 | -42% |
| David Lipsky | $7,100 | 102 | 233 | -47% |
| Bubba Watson | $7,000 | 15 | 67 | 50% |
| Jimmy Walker | $7,000 | 21 | 57 | 58% |
| Charl Schwartzel | $7,000 | 27 | 92 | 10% |
| Bill Haas | $7,000 | 42 | 63 | 52% |
| Jeunghun Wang | $7,000 | 43 | 132 | -4% |
| Branden Grace | $6,900 | 18 | 96 | 17% |
| Russell Knox | $6,900 | 19 | 67 | 53% |
| Hideto Tanihara | $6,900 | 56 | 243 | -21% |
| Thorbjorn Olesen | $6,900 | 74 | 192 | -9% |
| Fabrizio Zanotti | $6,900 | 86 | 267 | -26% |
| J.B. Holmes | $6,800 | 31 | 81 | 40% |
| Thomas Pieters | $6,800 | 35 | 71 | 50% |
| Lee Westwood | $6,800 | 49 | 108 | 17% |
| Joost Luiten | $6,800 | 66 | 176 | 5% |
| Michael Hendry | $6,800 | 174 | 603 | -29% |
| Danny Willett | $6,700 | 14 | 99 | 29% |
| Scott Piercy | $6,700 | 40 | 176 | 14% |
| William McGirt | $6,700 | 51 | 194 | 6% |
| Kyung-tae Kim | $6,700 | 60 | 269 | -8% |
| Si Woo Kim | $6,700 | 62 | 317 | -13% |
| Chris Wood | $6,600 | 52 | 172 | 22% |
| Jhonattan Vegas | $6,600 | 59 | 104 | 32% |
| Scott Hend | $6,600 | 68 | 294 | -3% |
| Mackenzie Hughes | $6,600 | 116 | 269 | 0% |
| Sam Brazel | $6,600 | 122 | 489 | -9% |
| Andy Sullivan | $6,500 | 54 | 179 | 23% |
| Pablo Larrazabal | $6,500 | 103 | 258 | 10% |
| Marcus Fraser | $6,500 | 146 | 319 | 1% |
| Matthew Griffin | $6,500 | 392 | 664 | -5% |
| Roberto Diaz | $6,500 | 472 | 608 | -4% |
Color Coding
Course history in BLUE indicates a top ten finish.
Course history in GREEN indicates a top 25 finish.
Course history in YELLOW indicates a made cut with a finish outside of the top 25.
Course history in RED indicates a missed cut.
Legend
| Term | Description |
|---|---|
| + / – % Diff. | The percentage differential between a golfer’s salary rank and odds rank. The higher the %, the better. |
| OWGR | Official World Golf Ranking |
| Cuts | Cut record of each golfer at this course in the last five seasons. |
| 2012 – 2016 Columns | Course history at this event in the last five seasons. |