PGA First Look: WGC-Mexico Championship
The PGA First Look is complete with a course preview, odds, salaries, Official World Golf Rankings, and course history.
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Event Preview
Justin Thomas put together a solid weekend to take home another trophy at the Honda Classic. We now head to Mexico City for the WGC-Mexico Championship. This event used to be played at the Trump National Doral Golf Course in Mexico, but has now been moved to the Club de Golf Chapultepec in Mexico. As with any WGC event, the top golfers from around the world will compete in a no-cut event. While it’s nice to get a week off from the Friday cut sweat (which was brutal last week), the limited field leads to concentrated ownership. All I ask this week is that there aren’t any notable withdrawals. Last year, Henrik Stenson withdrew with a stomach virus and these WGC events have led to many with withdrawals over the years.
The course measures over 7,300 yards and is a Par 71 that features three par fives. While the length looks daunting on paper, the course sits at roughly 7,800 feet above sea level (significantly higher than Denver). Given the altitude, the course equates to around 6,500 yards at sea level, which would make it the shortest course on the PGA Tour. When you dive into the statistics from last year, you’ll see that very few golfers took their driver out of their bag. You won’t even see many three-woods hit off the tee, as most golfers will elect to hit long irons. Not only does the elevation allow irons to fly farther, but the tree-lined fairways make it an easy decision for most. With driver out of play, this plays as a second-shot golf course.
Given the number of irons hit off the tee last year, driving accuracy was significantly higher than the PGA Tour average. The greens here are small and undulating and fairly difficult to hit. You will need a strong short game to save par around here, but it’s worth noting that the scrambling rate from last season was higher than the PGA Tour average. As for the grass, the fairways and rough are made of Kikuyugrass and the greens are a mix of Poa Annua and Bentgrass. This is the exact same combination that we saw at Riviera at the Genesis Open. This is a risk/reward type of golf course, as we saw a ton of eagles and a ton of double-bogeys here, which should provide for an exciting finish on Sunday.
I’m not targeting a specific type of golfer this week. While the bombers played well here last year, it wasn’t because of their drivers. As long as you are hitting the fairways, you will have plenty of good looks at birdies. With this being a no-cut event, I’m placing a bigger emphasis on birdie making, especially on the par fives. Strokes gained on approaches is going to be the top statistic in my weighted model, but I will also take a look at strokes gained putting on Poa grass. I may also play the Euro Tour angle, as 11 of the top 22 finishers here last season were European. It’s early, but the forecast looks impeccable. They are expecting temperatures in the 70s with little to no wind all week.
Cut Rule:No cut this week.
Recent Winners of this Event: Dustin Johnson (2017)
Key Statistics (In Order of Importance)
1) Strokes Gained Approach
2) Birdie or Better %
3) Par 5 Scoring
4) Par 4 Scoring
5) Strokes Gained Putting (Emphasis on Poa)
Hole by Hole Breakdown
Salaries, Odds, and Course History (2017)
| Golfer | DK Salary | FD Salary | FDRFT Salary | OWGR | Odds | DK Odds | FD Odds | FDRFT Odds | 2017 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dustin Johnson | $11,900 | $12,800 | $17,900 | 1 | 6 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1 |
| Justin Thomas | $11,500 | $12,500 | $17,700 | 3 | 8 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 5 |
| Jon Rahm | $10,600 | $12,100 | $17,200 | 2 | 12 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3 |
| Jordan Spieth | $10,500 | $11,900 | $17,000 | 4 | 13 | 0% | 20% | 0% | 12 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | $10,000 | $11,300 | $16,400 | 11 | 16 | 0% | 44% | 0% | 2 |
| Rickie Fowler | $9,800 | $11,700 | $16,200 | 7 | 18 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 16 |
| Justin Rose | $9,700 | $12,000 | $15,900 | 5 | 20 | 0% | -75% | 0% | 38 |
| Phil Mickelson | $9,300 | $11,000 | $15,600 | 34 | 22 | 0% | 20% | 11% | 7 |
| Sergio Garcia | $9,100 | $11,400 | $15,500 | 12 | 27 | -11% | -25% | 0% | 12 |
| Bubba Watson | $8,900 | $9,600 | $15,300 | 41 | 34 | -20% | 56% | -9% | 38 |
| Alexander Noren | $8,800 | $11,600 | $15,700 | 14 | 25 | 18% | -29% | -13% | 55 |
| Patrick Cantlay | $8,700 | $10,000 | $15,100 | 35 | 35 | -8% | 32% | 0% | 500 |
| Tyrrell Hatton | $8,600 | $9,800 | $14,700 | 16 | 43 | -23% | 30% | -7% | 10 |
| Tony Finau | $8,500 | $10,700 | $14,800 | 32 | 40 | -7% | -25% | -7% | 500 |
| Paul Casey | $8,400 | $10,900 | $15,200 | 17 | 33 | 27% | 0% | 8% | 16 |
| Thomas Pieters | $8,300 | $9,500 | $14,600 | 39 | 39 | 13% | 52% | 13% | 5 |
| Ross Fisher | $8,200 | $9,700 | $14,200 | 27 | 51 | -12% | 27% | 5% | 3 |
| Dylan Frittelli | $8,200 | $8,800 | $13,800 | 44 | 64 | -71% | 24% | -4% | 500 |
| Kevin Chappell | $8,100 | $9,900 | $14,100 | 36 | 58 | -37% | -24% | -13% | 55 |
| Chez Reavie | $8,100 | $9,000 | $13,700 | 46 | 54 | -16% | 33% | 27% | 500 |
| Brian Harman | $8,000 | $9,900 | $13,900 | 21 | 60 | -29% | -29% | -4% | 500 |
| Louis Oosthuizen | $8,000 | $9,800 | $13,500 | 29 | 71 | -52% | -39% | 3% | 48 |
| Daniel Berger | $7,900 | $9,800 | $14,200 | 33 | 55 | 0% | 0% | -15% | 16 |
| Webb Simpson | $7,800 | $10,200 | $14,300 | 41 | 50 | 25% | -6% | 0% | 500 |
| Xander Schauffele | $7,800 | $8,800 | $14,300 | 23 | 51 | 21% | 50% | -6% | 500 |
| Branden Grace | $7,700 | $10,400 | $13,800 | 28 | 63 | -8% | -87% | 0% | 32 |
| Rafael Cabrera-Bello | $7,700 | $10,500 | $13,900 | 20 | 64 | -15% | -131% | -15% | 38 |
| Gary Woodland | $7,600 | $10,100 | $14,200 | 25 | 55 | 11% | -39% | -25% | 38 |
| Marc Leishman | $7,600 | $10,300 | $14,500 | 15 | 48 | 39% | -6% | 0% | 500 |
| Matt Kuchar | $7,600 | $10,500 | $14,000 | 18 | 55 | 14% | -85% | 0% | 20 |
| Matthew Fitzpatrick | $7,600 | $9,400 | $14,000 | 30 | 51 | 25% | 30% | 13% | 16 |
| Brendan Steele | $7,500 | $9,000 | $13,400 | 38 | 77 | -13% | -9% | -6% | 48 |
| Jason Dufner | $7,500 | $10,000 | $13,400 | 45 | 76 | -9% | -84% | -3% | 23 |
| Kevin Kisner | $7,500 | $9,100 | $13,400 | 31 | 74 | -6% | -6% | 0% | 11 |
| Adam Hadwin | $7,500 | $9,000 | $13,600 | 49 | 72 | -3% | 0% | -6% | 500 |
| Patrick Reed | $7,500 | $9,600 | $13,300 | 26 | 78 | -16% | -37% | 0% | 61 |
| Pat Perez | $7,400 | $9,300 | $13,600 | 19 | 70 | 16% | 0% | 0% | 38 |
| Patton Kizzire | $7,400 | $8,600 | $13,000 | 59 | 96 | -8% | 0% | -3% | 500 |
| Russell Henley | $7,400 | $8,900 | $13,300 | 55 | 86 | -3% | -6% | -3% | 500 |
| Hao-Tong Li | $7,400 | $8,400 | $12,700 | 37 | 102 | -16% | 2% | -5% | 500 |
| Francesco Molinari | $7,300 | $8,900 | $12,500 | 22 | 100 | -2% | -17% | 5% | 20 |
| Joost Luiten | $7,300 | $7,600 | $12,700 | 67 | 99 | 0% | 18% | 0% | 25 |
| Charl Schwartzel | $7,300 | $8,500 | $13,000 | 47 | 91 | 5% | 7% | 0% | 38 |
| Kiradech Aphibarnrat | $7,300 | $8,200 | $12,300 | 40 | 126 | -10% | 0% | 0% | 500 |
| Charley Hoffman | $7,200 | $8,500 | $12,600 | 24 | 102 | 2% | -5% | -2% | 500 |
| Kyle Stanley | $7,200 | $8,100 | $12,100 | 57 | 135 | -2% | 0% | 0% | 500 |
| Chris Paisley | $7,200 | $7,200 | $11,800 | 83 | 168 | -11% | 14% | -4% | 500 |
| Bernd Wiesberger | $7,100 | $8,600 | $11,700 | 53 | 164 | -2% | -23% | 2% | 45 |
| Peter Uihlein | $7,100 | $7,800 | $11,800 | 62 | 151 | 2% | 2% | 2% | 500 |
| Paul Dunne | $7,100 | $7,400 | $11,900 | 86 | 155 | 0% | 11% | -2% | 500 |
| Shubhankar Sharma | $7,000 | $7,600 | $11,700 | 75 | 168 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 500 |
| Jorge Campillo | $7,000 | $7,100 | $11,600 | 105 | 188 | -4% | 12% | -2% | 500 |
| David Lipsky | $7,000 | $7,400 | $10,900 | 152 | 281 | -12% | -6% | 0% | 63 |
| Jhonattan Vegas | $6,900 | $7,900 | $11,600 | 50 | 179 | 4% | -11% | 0% | 38 |
| Dean Burmester | $6,900 | $7,000 | $11,200 | 137 | 240 | -2% | 11% | 0% | 500 |
| Satoshi Kodaira | $6,900 | $7,700 | $11,500 | 43 | 203 | 0% | -10% | 0% | 500 |
| Yusaku Miyazato | $6,800 | $7,300 | $11,200 | 54 | 243 | 2% | 0% | -2% | 500 |
| Wade Ormsby | $6,800 | $7,300 | $10,700 | 107 | 325 | -4% | -5% | -2% | 500 |
| Brett Rumford | $6,800 | $7,000 | $10,500 | 343 | 383 | -7% | 2% | 0% | 500 |
| Yuta Ikeda | $6,700 | $7,500 | $10,600 | 48 | 356 | 0% | -15% | 0% | 61 |
| Abraham Ancer | $6,700 | $7,000 | $10,300 | 260 | 458 | -3% | 0% | 0% | 500 |
| Gavin Green | $6,700 | $7,200 | $10,700 | 172 | 311 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 500 |
| Brandon Stone | $6,600 | $7,100 | $10,200 | 215 | 542 | 0% | -5% | 0% | 67 |
| Adam Bland | $6,600 | $7,000 | $10,100 | 230 | 853 | -3% | -5% | -2% | 500 |
| Chan Kim | $6,600 | $7,500 | $10,100 | 97 | 544 | -2% | -23% | 0% | 500 |
Color Coding
Course history in BLUE indicates a top ten finish.
Course history in GREEN indicates a top 25 finish.
Course history in YELLOW indicates a made cut with a finish outside of the top 25.
Course history in RED indicates a missed cut.
Legend
| Term | Description |
|---|---|
| Site Odds | The percentage differential between a golfer’s salary rank and odds rank. The higher the %, the better. |
| OWGR | Official World Golf Ranking |
| Cuts | Cut record of each golfer at this course in the last five seasons. |
| 2013 – 2017 Columns | Course history at this event in the last five seasons. |