PGA Golf Betting Picks for the 2021 RBC Heritage

by Matt Schmitto (schmitto) Last Updated 2021-04-14 16:50:06

Masters Week is over, and the green jacket is on its way to Japan. However, there’s still a jacket up for grabs this week at Harbour Town Golf Links in South Carolina. The winner of the RBC Heritage will add a plaid jacket to their wardrobe, not to mention a nearly $1.3 million paycheck. After swinging at Masters odds and missing, we hope to bounce back and win some cash of our own with RBC Heritage golf betting picks at online sportsbooks. With 144 players in the field, finding the winner won’t be easy, but we know exactly what to look for when golfers arrive at this Pete Dye course.

For more general golf betting tips, check out our PGA golf betting guide.

RBC Heritage Betting Picks: What To Look For

• Harbour Town Golf Links
• Par 71
• 6,965 Yards
• Bermuda Greens
• Designer: Pete Dye

Sitting on Hilton Head Island, S.C., Pete Dye-designed Harbour Town Golf Links in 1967. With three par 5s, the course comes out to a Par 71.

Like many of Dye’s courses, Harbour Town is a strategic test that forces players to leave their drivers in their bag on a number of tee boxes as they try to map out conservative scoring opportunities around carefully placed hazards and undulated greens.

Past Winners at Harbour Town

• 2020: Webb Simpson (-20)
• 2019: Pan Cheng-tsung (-12)
• 2018: Staoshi Kadaira (-12)
• 2017: Wesley Bryan (-13)
• 2016: Branden Grace (-9)
• 2015: Jim Furyk (-18)
• 2014: Matt Kuchar (-11)
• 2013: Graeme McDowell (-9)
• 2012: Carl Pettersson (-13)
• 2011: Brandt Snedeker (-12)
• 201): Jim Furyk (-13)

As you can see above, Harbour Town is a course where not only short hitters can compete but where they often win. One thing to note is that Harbour Town has seldom hosted as strong of a field as it hosts this week. Many European golfers are stick around in the states following the Masters, as they prepare for the next major of the season, the PGA Championship, scheduled for May 20, at The Ocean Course on Kiawah Island, S.C., which is another Pete Dye course.

Historically driving distance has been mitigated by tall, unwavering trees lining Harbour Town’s fairways. For golf betting and daily fantasy purposes, we want to seek out golfers with excellent approach games first and foremost.

Key Holes at Harbour Town Golf Links

Hole No. 17 – Par 3, 174 yards

Birdies: 11%
Par: 66%
Bogey: 20%
Double Bogey: 2%

This hole can actually play as short as 160 yards and as long as 185 depending on where the organizers put the tees. A lagoon makes No. 17 dangerous, particularly if winds are picking up. There are also bunkers on both sides, with one of them stretching upwards of 90 yards.

Hole No. 18 – Par 4, 472 yards

Birdies: 10%
Par: 64%
Bogey: 23%
Double Bogey: 3%

With a lighthouse waiting at the end, Harbour Town’s 18th is one of golf’s more breathtaking finishings. It’s the second most difficult hole on the course, yielding its fair share of bogeys and a 4.228 scoring average. It will take long, precise approach shots if golfers want to close with a birdie.

PGA Golf Betting Favorites — RBC Heritage

All golf odds referenced herein are courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbooks unless stated otherwise.

Current World No. 1 golfer Dustin Johnson and defending champion Webb Simpson lead the pack when it comes to golf odds for the RBC Heritage, both at +1200 at online sportsbooks. Johnson’s performance at the Masters ought to leave us hesitant to back him at this short of a price. Johnson, despite previous dominance in Georgia, missed the cut last week. Now he travels to RBC Heritage for the fourth year in a row, not because he has a romance with the course but to fulfill sponsorship obligations alongside a team of RBC ambassadors that includes Webb Simpson, Jim Furyk, Brandt Snedeker, Matt Kuchar and Graeme McDowell. After all, Johnson has yet to finish inside the top-15 in his previous three appearances. Sure, Johnson is a South Carolina native, playing college golf at the College of Charleston, but Hilton Head, a venue where golfers’ average length off the tee is 15 yards shorter than the tour average, forces Johnson to club down, minimizing at best and obsoleting at worst one of his most significant advantages against the field.

As for Webb, well, there’s a reason why he’s the defending champion. For the same reasons the layout hurts Johnson’s chances of winning, it helps Simpson’s, who hasn’t missed a cut at this course in eight appearances. His worst showing was a 66th in 2016, but he also had a runner-up, 4th, 11th, and 16th prior to his 2020 victory. Moreover, Simpson comes off a T12 at the Masters. So not only does he get to play at a course that suits his eye, but he will also navigate Hilton Head in good form.

Following DJ and Simpson is Patrick Cantlay, another golfer who didn’t show up to Augusta with his best stuff. As a result, Cantlay left the premises a couple of days early. I’m much more interested in taking Cantlay at his short prices than the two favorites already mentioned.

The 29-year-old also wasn’t able to make it out of the WGC Match Play group stage just a few weeks ago, but that was despite striking the ball beautifully, shooting an 8-under and 6-under during the first two days of the unique format. Like Austin Country Club, Harbour Town Golf Links is a Pete Dye-designed track that Cantlay has previously found success on. Between 2017-19, Cantlay finished in third place at the RBC Heritage twice.

Other betting favorites for the RBC Heritage this week include Daniel Berger +1800, Collin Morikawa +2000, Tyrell Hatton +2200, Cam Smith +2500, Abraham Ancer +2800, Paul Casey +2800, Will Zalatoris +2800 and Corey Conners +3000.

Morikawa might be the most talented golfer not named Dustin Johnson in this field. Though Morikawa is undoubtedly one of the best ball-strikers on Tour, his iron play wasn’t the reason for his top-20 Masters finish. The 2020 PGA Champion actually struggled with that facet of his game, but surprisingly gained strokes with his short stick on some of the most difficult greens he’ll putt on all season. Typically this would be a warning sign, but not with Morikawa. I’m hardly concerned about the state of his swing, and if anything his putting performance should give us confidence when making our RBC Heritage betting picks. Even though he quickly won on Tour, he would have won sooner if it were not for his shakey hands. He’s put a lot of work in his short game, though, with an emphasis on his stroke, and it appears to be paying off.

Wins seem imminent for Conners and Zalatoris, the latter of whom had his coming out party on the biggest stage in golf just days ago. Both were in contention on Sunday, though Conners eventually faltered. The final round must have been emotionally draining for both golfers, so I’m not sure I want to bet on them so soon. At least when it comes to favorites, I’m only including Cantlay and Morikawa in my RBC Heritage betting picks. I have no judgment, however, for those whom think Zalatoris will parlay his momentum into a PGA Tour victory this week.

With that said, there’s an exciting field of longshots that we can fill out the rest of this week’s PGA betting picks. Let’s take a look.

More RBC Heritage Golf Betting Picks

Stewart Cink +150000

Stewart Cink is a two-time winner at Harbour Town, but his recent form is what makes him appealing this week. He’s had back-to-back top-20 finishes; first a T19 at the Honda Classic, then a T12 at the Masters last week. At the Honda, Cink gained a whopping seven strokes with his approach shots. This is a field, and golf course, the 47-year-old can beat.

Matthew NeSmith +15000

Matthew NeSmith ranks 3rd in strokes gained approach, 6th in ball-striking, and 8th tee-to-green amongst the field. Yet somehow we can bet on him at 150-to-1 at William Hill and PointsBet sportsbooks. Yes, please.

[Bet NeSmith +15000 at William Hill]

Doc Redman +15000

Remember when Doc Redman was in all of our PGA DFS lineups last year? He had a streak of five made cuts, and then capitalized with three top-five finishes between August and November. He administered the bulk of damage via his crisp irons and a reliable putter. Both of those things tapered off at the start of 2021, but Doc seems to be rounding back into form. He’s gained strokes on his approach shots in back-to-back tournaments, and, after five straight showings in which he lost strokes on the green, he seems to have found his stroke once again. Hitting greens and putting well is a recipe for success at the RBC Heritage.

Chase Seiffert +20000

His last five finishes: T44/T18/T3/T15. Seiffert is a capable ball-striker — he gained eight strokes approach at the Honda. He just needs to get hot on and around the greens to win. At 200-to-1 odds, that’s something worth betting on.

RBC Heritage PGA Golf Betting Card

2021 PGA Golf Betting Results: -26.1 Units

Image Credit: Imagn