FREE TODAY - PGA GPP Breakdown: Quicken Loans National
Top-ranked grinder, STLCardinals84, will break down his top GPP golf targets for the coming week’s tournament, going over his favorite plays at various price ranges. Who better than PGA DFS master, STLCards, to help you on your way?
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Quicken Loans National
Welcome back, golf fans! I want to get excited about this tournament. I really do. The fact of the matter, though, is that just probably isn’t going to happen. We have a very weak field. We have a difficult golf course. The tournament is moving from its current location to Detroit next year, so this course will be done after 2018. There’s just not much to get excited about.
Thankfully, there are only 120 golfers in this invitational field as opposed to 156, but that doesn’t stop the field from being one of the weakest you will see for a PGA Tour event. The winning score at TPC Potomac last year was only seven under par, and this course actually played more difficult than last year’s U.S. Open setup at Erin Hills. Although it is a par 70 layout, there are quite a few long par fours on this track. That lends some credence to favoring distance. However, the rough is also very penal if you miss the fairways (something along the lines of a third of a stroke), so accuracy is also paramount. I’ll gladly consider total driving, ball striking, and par four scoring this week. The accurate and patient golfer gets a boost, as this will not be a birdie fest. Any semblance of recent form also helps given the weak nature of this field.
I am narrowing my player pool a little more this week out of necessity, too. If you are mass-entering lineups and you generally use 30-40 golfers, good luck finding that many you like in this mess!
All right, it’s time for me to stop complaining and get on with the picks!
Rickie Fowler ($11,700 DK / $12,600 FD / $18,800 FDRAFT)
If you want the clear class of the field this week, here you go. Fowler is around six and a half or seven to one odds to win this tournament right now, and that’s about as heavy of a favorite as you will find in a full field PGA Tour event. While he has a reputation of choking on the weekend when he’s in contention, perhaps he can build a big enough lead this week to where that will not matter. He currently ranks fifth on Tour in par four scoring and 33rd in total driving, and he finished third here last year in the debut of TPC Potomac for this event. I’ll try to get as much exposure to Fowler as I can this week, with the only thing holding me back being the lack of obvious value plays (which is also a result of the weak field).
Kyle Stanley ($10,200 DK / $10,100 FD / $16,000 FDRAFT)
First of all, if you are playing on FanDuel, the price tag over there is just way too low for Stanley, who is the defending champion of this event. There’s no reason he should basically be priced at the average salary we have to spend per golfer in this field. He grades out fantastically for this layout, as he currently sports a top 20 ranking in par four scoring, total driving, and ball striking for the year. Though he missed the cut at the U.S. Open, his other two most recent starts have both resulted in top 15 finishes. He’s one of the safest plays on the board this week, and he obviously has upside as the defending champion.
Joaquin Niemann ($9,000 DK / $10,000 FD / $14,900 FDRAFT)
Sometimes, in events like this, it pays to be on the young stars that are rising. Enter Joaquin Niemann. He doesn’t have enough rounds under his belt to qualify statistically for the season, but we’ve seen flashes of brilliance from the kid. He has three top eight finishes to his name in just seven starts, so he’s clearly acclimating quickly to the level of play that the PGA Tour commands. The problem is that all four of his other starts have been missed cuts. Talk about boom or bust! I’ll lean more toward the “boom” side in such a weak field, and with only 120 golfers in play, it would surprise me a bit if he misses the cut here. There’s plenty of appeal with Niemann, especially in GPP formats, as his tee to green stats have been excellent when he is playing well.
Jamie Lovemark ($8,300 DK / $9,400 FD / $14,800 FDRAFT)
This is definitely a pick that is centered around recent form, as Lovemark has turned it around over the last few months with some solid performances. He has eight made cuts in his last nine starts, with the worst finish in that stretch being a still respectable 41st place. Lovemark has always been a streaky golfer, and I’m happy to target him while he is trending in the right direction. He ranks 31st on Tour in par four scoring and is above average in every other measure, as well. While he is known in many circles as a bomber, he can happily compete well on courses like this one, especially when he’s locked in. Fire up Lovemark with confidence this week.
Gary Woodland ($8,100 DK / $10,200 FD / $14,700 FDRAFT)
Woodland’s statistical profile for a course likes this always grabs me, and it’s nice to see some improving form right now. He rebounded from a poor first round to make the cut at the U.S. Open a couple weeks ago, and the upside is always there with Woodland. His statistical profile remains excellent with rankings of third in total driving and second in ball striking, and that should serve him well here. Given the weak nature of this field, I would consider him a top ten overall option this week, and he’s not priced like it. He’s one of my favorite point per dollar plays on the board for all formats.
Kevin Tway ($8,000 DK / $9,300 FD / $14,300 FDRAFT)
I don’t love him statistically, but there’s something to be said for riding the recent form with Tway. He’s mega talented and can stripe the ball a long way, so it will simply come down to whether or not he can hit enough fairways. He has logged three top ten finishes in his last five starts on Tour, and that’s a big boost in this ugly field. The fact that he made the cut here last year is also a nice little bonus, even though he didn’t do much on his way to a T-55 finish. This play is more about the recent form, and that could be enough to catapult him up the leaderboard here. Confidence plays on any course.
Brian Gay ($7,400 DK / $9,100 FD / $14,100 FDRAFT)
Brian Gay is basically your average PGA Tour golfer. Nothing more. Nothing less. Just average. Average becomes above average at this event, though, and this certainly profiles as a course where Gay could plod his way to a top 30 finish. He seems like more of a cash game play than a GPP upside play, but I’ll gladly take some safety with my value picks this week, even in GPPs. If you are looking for a contrarian tournament option, I don’t mind the idea of pivoting to C.T. Pan in tournaments after he burned everyone a week ago, as he was on a solid run of form before last week’s debacle at high ownership. Play the recency bias angle there if you wish, but Gay is the safer of the two choices.
Kelly Kraft ($7,000 DK / $7,600 FD / $11,700 FDRAFT)
There’s really not going to be much in the punt price range that stands out as a statistical-based value play this week. It’s just ugly down here with how poor this field is. The good news with Kraft is that he has made his last three cuts, he’s dirt cheap, and he made the cut last year at this event, finishing 47th in the process. I’ll take that combination as we get deep into the field, and his price is cheap enough to where he really allows you flexibility with your roster construction. We’ve also seen more upside from him than with some of the other dirt cheap plays, so I’ll gladly take some GPP shots here.
Seamus Power ($6,900 DK / $8,000 FD / $12,600 FDRAFT)
If you want the value play that grades out the best in our new RotoGrinders model, Power is the most obvious selection. We have him with a 73% probability to make the cut and a 24% chance to walk away with a top 20 finish, which are some of the best percentages down in this value range. He also made the cut here last year and has solid finishes in each of his last two starts, so he is trending in the right direction. He’s my favorite punt play on all sites and formats this week.
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