PGA GPP Breakdown: U.S. Open
Top-ranked grinder, STLCardinals84, will break down his top GPP golf targets for the coming week’s tournament, going over his favorite plays at various price ranges. Who better than PGA DFS master, STLCards, to help you on your way?
U.S. Open
WEDNESDAY AM UPDATE – The current weather forecast is giving a significant-looking edge to the THU AM – FRI PM wave, so you may want to pivot to a few more of those picks. Options from that tee wave that I am upgrading include Louis Oosthuizen, Brooks Koepka, and Chesson Hadley. I will continue to monitor this until lock on Thursday AM.
Welcome back for our second major of the season, as the U.S. Open makes its way to Shinnecock Hills in New York for this year’s edition. I have also made my way back from Disney World, and it’s nice to be back in the “normal” daily routine again. I’m excited for this tournament, so let’s get started!
Shinnecock Hills last hosted the U.S. Open back in 2004, so we don’t have a lot of course history data to base our thought process on this week. There are no water hazards and very few trees on the course, and it’s about as “links-y” as a layout can get in the United States. The rough is very penal here, so give a boost to guys who find fairways and greens and also to players who play well on links courses. I like the angle of looking at total driving this week, as the course is also plenty long (and has been lengthened considerably since 2004). The golfers who have the best combination of distance and accuracy off the tee will be rewarded. Good scrambling also helps, as being able to save par will be of extreme importance on many holes. Putting is less of an emphasis for me this week, especially since the tricky greens and uncertain speeds will cause problems for even the best of putters.
There are very few easy holes on this course, with just two par fives and one measuring well over 600 yards. Long par fours are the name of the game, so golfers will need to be dialed in with their mid-to-long irons to have success. I would be surprised if the winning score got to -8 or -9 under par given how easy last year’s U.S. Open played at Erin Hills. If the scoring is too low in the early rounds, the USGA will make life a nightmare for these golfers over the weekend.
Here are some GPP-focused picks for the U.S. Open!
Rory McIlroy ($11,500 DK / $11,700 FD / $17,500 FDRAFT)
Is it possible that Rory McIlroy is actually flying under the radar heading into the U.S. Open? Everyone will be focusing on Dustin Johnson (and reasonably so) after his big win in Memphis last week, and DJ is clearly the safest choice on the high end for cash games. However, this is a tournament-focused piece, and as such, I shall recommend the pivot to Rory in GPP formats. We know he has the upside to win a tournament if his putter cooperates, and I’m less concerned with shaky putters in this event. Rory still ranks inside the top 50 on Tour in total driving, strokes gained approach, and scrambling, making him one of the only golfers in the field to be in that boat — and that’s with Rory struggling for much of the year. If he’s going to largely get ignored at these high prices, I’ll gladly buy in on him ahead of the scuffling Jordan Spieth in GPP formats.
Rickie Fowler ($10,200 DK / $11,400 FD / $16,400 FDRAFT)
Speaking of flying under the radar, we have Exhibit B with Fowler. The narrative is out there that Fowler always chokes in big spots, and that will certainly be the case in the U.S. Open, right? He has a decent history on links-style courses and finished fifth in last year’s U.S. Open at Erin Hills. He is also coming off a top ten finish in his last start on Tour, so the quietly converging trends are there. He ranks inside the top ten on Tour in scrambling and won’t be intimidated by a challenging layout like Shinnecock Hills, and he also comes a bit cheaper than the other stud plays. I’ll gladly be overweight against the field in tournaments here.
Justin Rose ($9,900 DK / $12,200 FD / $16,500 FDRAFT)
If safety and upside are what you seek with your high-end selections, give Rose a long look. His price tag is MUCH cheaper on DraftKings than it should be, but I will consider him for tournaments on all sites. On DK, I think you can play him in any format. Rose profiles as the best statistical play on the board with solid ranks in total driving (5th), strokes gained on approach (27th), and scrambling (18th). That grades him as the #1 overall play for me, and he isn’t priced like that except on FanDuel. Don’t overthink this one and get some exposure to Rose. It would surprise me greatly if he finished outside the top 20 given his 2018 form, and he could very much win this thing.
Jon Rahm ($9,500 DK / $11,800 FD / $16,000 FDRAFT)
It has been a while since I have played Rahm in a DFS contest, but this seems like the perfect time to buy in. He’s flashed upside quite often this season, with the most recent being top fives at The Masters and at his last start in Fort Worth, both of which were sandwiched around a European Tour win in Spain — which some casual PGA DFS players might not know about. He’s plenty long off the tee, makes a lot of birdies, and can go low when the opportunity is there. I actually like his fearless approach despite the tough nature of this course, as it will lead to birdies that might be few and far between with other players. Rahm is a fantastic high upside play in tournaments for the U.S. Open.
Bryson DeChambeau ($8,300 DK / $10,100 FD / $14,800 FDRAFT)
The science kid has finally figured it out. He has made his last seven cuts on Tour, and FOUR of those have gone for top five finishes. That’s some impressive upside from a young golfer, and he won’t be at a disadvantage having never seen this course before — as he will be in the same boat as most of the field. Bryson should be able to pick up on the nuances more quickly than some other golfers, and his statistical profile is eye-popping with top 20 ranks in both total driving and strokes gained approach as well as an above average rank in scrambling. There’s not much to dislike here, and he still comes in with an mid-level price tag. Yes, please.
Tommy Fleetwood ($8,100 DK / $10,400 FD / $14,600 FDRAFT)
Fleetwood never seems to get the attention he deserves from the mainstream media, but he does tend to be popular in DFS circles. Maybe that will change given this strong field, but the price is reasonable, and Fleetwood has rebounded from a rough patch with three straight top 25 finishes worldwide. He currently leads the PGA Tour in total driving, which is a HUGE benefit this week. I like the way Fleetwood profiles on these tougher courses, and he certainly has plenty of links-style experience with his European Tour play over the years. I love Fleetwood in GPP formats this week, and I hope he comes in as a somewhat under-the-radar option given that he hasn’t done all that well when he has been a chalky DFS option this season. Keep an eye on our projected ownership here.
Webb Simpson ($7,700 DK / $10,700 FD / $14,000 FDRAFT)
Simpson missed the cut in his last start, but I’m willing to forgive him for one poor outing after a big victory at THE PLAYERS. He has otherwise rested since that win, and six of his previous seven starts had gone for top 25 finishes. The putting surge more than just a fluke at this point, and Simpson has always been a solid tee-to-green player. He’s priced appropriately on FanDuel but is a massive bargain on the other sites, especially on DraftKings at just $7,700. He ranks 29th in strokes gained on approach and 2nd in scrambling this season, so he should be able to save par when needed on this difficult golf course. Don’t sleep on Simpson after just one poor performance. He’s a top golfer, even in this loaded field.
Francesco Molinari ($7,600 DK / $9,200 FD / $13,700 FDRAFT)
I have always been a fan of rostering Francesco Molinari, and that’s not going to slow down now after he has finished FIRST and SECOND in his last two starts on the European Tour. Those haven’t been in ugly field events, either, as he bested Rory McIlroy for his win at the BMW a few weeks ago. Molinari is absolutely locked in right now, and his always proficient tee-to-green game translates well to any course. As I have noted other times in this space throughout the year, Molinari is also hitting the ball farther off the tee this year, which seems to be helping his game. Molinari is a total steal at his FanDuel price this week, and he’s a solid value on DK/FDRAFT as well. In other words, I will be playing plenty of him on all sites and in all formats; he is one of the top point-per-dollar plays on the board.
Brandt Snedeker ($7,300 DK / $9,500 FD / $12,600 FDRAFT)
Snedeker is my YOLO GPP play of the week. He hasn’t flashed much (if any) form this season, but people would have started to pay attention if he would have won in Memphis last week. The fact that he finished sixth is almost perfect in my opinion in that it shows improving form, but it will also keep the masses away from him. Snedeker’s veteran presence and patience on the golf course should play dividends at Shinnecock Hills, and I love him as an under the radar tournament option. His stats this year don’t jump off the page, but I like the positive trends and the fact that he does rank 19th on Tour in scrambling. This is your sub-5% sleeper of the week.
Charley Hoffman ($7,200 DK / $8,700 FD / $12,500 FDRAFT)
These are the events where Hoffman tends to get over-looked, and it will be especially true after he missed the cut as a massive chalk play in his last start. Hello, tournament play! While Hoffman has the tendency to bomb at times, and that risk is magnified on a course where big numbers are out there, he’s also one of the more likely value plays to finish inside the top 25. That boom-or-bust potential makes him a perfect tournament play, especially if he can be dialed in on approach. His all-around game remains solid, and I like him as a golfer to round out your GPP rosters for the U.S. Open.
Charles Howell ($6,700 DK / $9,400 FD / $11,400 FDRAFT)
I usually write Charles Howell off after The Masters, but he’s continued his cut-making ways this year as we head into the summer months. He also ranks solidly above average in pretty much every category I am weighting this week, as he ranks inside the top 70 in total driving, strokes gained on approach, and scrambling. Howell is also one of the few golfers who actually has experience at Shinnecock Hills, as he finished 36th in the 2004 U.S. Open and would have finished inside the top ten if not for a final round 83 in ugly conditions. He’s a sneaky option and comes dirt cheap, so there’s plenty of merit to using him at the end of your lineup on any site. I expect a solid made cut, and that’s all you need at this price point.
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