PGA Hole-by-Hole: Bethpage (Black) Course

by PuddinCheeks Last Updated 2016-08-25 12:46:28

Battling through a grueling season, the players that have fought hard enough will finally have their shot at the very handsome reward of the FedEx Championship. This field is composed of the top 125 players in point rankings from the entire season. That means we should get a field of players that don’t randomly drop an 80 and destroy our fantasy teams, or so we hope. From here on out to the end of the season the field average will keep getting tougher and stronger.

It is my expectation that this will be an optimal week as far as fantasy is concerned since the field size will now start shrinking with each succeeding event. The players will be battling to get into the top 100 ranking to continue on in the playoffs and that can lead to some above average play from guys with sheer determination.

Bethpage State Park (Black) • Farmingdale, NY • Par 71 • 7468 yards

Sporting an iconic warning sign on the first tee, the (Black) course at Bethpage State Park is the most difficult of the five courses located on the property. Founded in 1936 this historic course is a perfect starting locale for the 2016 playoffs. It has hosted two US Opens (2002, 2009) in the past and is scheduled for future events such as the 2019 PGA Championship and 2024 Ryder Cup.

This course may also be familiar to anyone that likes to play golf video games and has been featured on Tiger Woods PGA Tour (10,11,12) as well as WGT golf online (Current). So if you want to do some quick research of your own, fire up the old console and give it a twirl!

Scorecard

We do have some course history stats from the last Barclay’s that was hosted on this course in 2012. It is not an optimal amount of data but can be at least utilized as a guideline.

With an average player expected to score 13.5 DK points per round we should at least see a six man team average of 324.96. That puts this tournament somewhere between the RBC Canadian Open (357) and the PGA Championship (312). With only five holes that average better than par that will also lean to players having mixed rounds of under and over par scoring. This course also has three holes where a par will gain fantasy points on the field of players (3,5,10). At least the good news this week is we have three par fives and those will be where the majority of the fantasy scoring will originate from. Two of them are reachable and see a handful of eagles in each round, while one is over 600 yards and not reachable in two for almost everyone.

Hole by Hole Analysis

NOTE: Images are from Google Earth
Format Notes:
Tee Shots (Drive/Approach) = 290/150, (Landing width)
Green (Width/Depth) = 25/25
Elevation: Distance in (feet) of elevation change uphill(+), downhill(-)
Direction: The Direction that the hole plays towards.
New Stat! Scoring: I will be showing scoring percent per hole based on Under-Par, Par, Over-Par. Under(XX.X%),Par(XX.X%),Over(XX.X%)
All other Measurements in yards.
The displayed shot markers markers on the images are for “Tee Shot 1” for each respective hole.

Hole #1: Par 4 • 430 yards • Rank: 14

Referred to by some as the worst opening hole a golf course can have, this hole is a tricky downhill dog-leg right. If a player manages to miss to the right on this hole it quickly becomes a nightmare to get through a mess of jungle to recover the hole. The green is also protected by a steep green-side bunker. It is still a very manageable hole from the fairway with most players using no more than a wedge into the green. This is the fifth ranked hole for birdies (17 per round).

Tee Shot 1: 290/140, 25
Tee Shot 2: 320/100, 25
Green: 17/31
Elevation: -40
Direction: Northeast
Scoring: Under(17%), Par(70.9%), Over(12.2%)

Hole #2: Par 4 • 389 yards • Rank: 13

With a well-placed tee shot players have a rather steep uphill (30 feet) approach to a blind pin position. Some players may even hang back to around 250 yards off the tee to have a full shot into the green. Just like the opening hole this one can be scored on with a tee shot in the right place it ranks sixth best in birdies (16 per round).

Tee Shot 1: 285/95, 21
Tee Shot 2: 308/70, 20
Green: 28/29
Elevation: +30
Direction: Northeast
Scoring: Under(16.2%), Par(68.1%), Over(15.7%)

Hole #3: Par 3 • 230 yards • Rank: 1

Playing as the hardest on hole the course this long par 3 is quite a formidable challenge. The green angles away from players as it plays slightly downhill. The Pin position can dictate the scoring from day to day, but the hazards around this green make gaining par very tough. There aren’t many double bogeys scored on this hole but it touts the most bogeys on the course (31 per round) and fewest birdies (6 per round). Taking a par and moving on will be in the minds of most players. A back left pin position and get upwards of 250 yards from a back tee location as well.

Tee Shot 1: 230
Green: 28/35
Elevation: -8
Direction: South
Scoring: Under(5.8%), Par(61.3%), Over(32.9%)

Hole #4: Par 5 • 517 yards • Rank: 17

Immediately following the hardest hole, players get the second easiest. This is a reachable par 5 but requires a well placed second shot to get one of the three eagles per round. Forty-one percent of scores on this hole are under par so it’s safe to say your guys better not screw this one up because every par loses one fantasy point against the field. The tee shot plays slightly uphill (+15 feet) and the approach plays significantly uphill (+35 feet).

Tee Shot 1: 290/225, 23
Tee Shot 2: 330/185, 24
Green: 29/24
Elevation: +50
Scoring: Under(41%), Par(48.1%), Over(10.9%)

Hole #5: Par 4 • 478 yards • Rank: 3

This third toughest hole is a medium-long par 4 where long hitters can pick up an advantage. It only plays a few feet downhill off the tee with another uphill approach (+25 feet). This is a straight hole as far as shots go but from the tee will appear like a dog-leg right followed by a dog-leg left approach. The green is surrounded by trouble and slopes back towards the players coming in. Twenty-five percent of scores on this hole are over par so a birdie here will pick up strokes and fantasy points against the field.

Tee Shot 1: 290/185, 26
Tee Shot 2: 330/150, 24
Green: 31/26
Elevation: +20
Direction: North
Scoring: Under(9.4%), Par(65.6%), Over(25.1%)

Hole #6: Par 4 • 408 yards • Rank: 12

A decision holes where players can go nuts and drive the ball off of a hill that starts between the fairway bunkers and collects around the 310 yard mark with a short approach to the green. Obviously the image shows this comes with risk so some players will hang back on top of the hill around 240 leaving 170 yards on approach. There aren’t as many birdies per round (12) as you would think and that is mostly due to the tight landing area players need to hit for that easy wedge onto this well-protected smallish green.

Tee Shot 1: 290/110, 21
Tee Shot 2: 330/70, 20
Green: 24/26
Elevation: -20
Direction: Southeast
Scoring: Under(12.4%), Par(69.1%), Over(18.5%)

Hole #7: Par 5 • 553 yards • Rank: 18

This hole plays as a par 4 for Major Championships, but lucky for the players and for our fantasy teams they get to take it on as a par 5. That means that scoring will be plentiful, averaging four eagles and a whopping 58 birdies per round, the fantasy goodness will come in bunches. Even though this hole has the largest landing zone, I highly doubt players will want to be far left or miss right. Going left adds distance quickly and hanging out to the right means there will be tree problems. At a whopping sixty-three percent of under par scores, pars and bogeys are not friendly to your fantasy teams on this one.

Tee Shot 1: 290/240, 39
Tee Shot 2: 330/204, 29
Green: 29/31
Elevation: +15
Direction: North
Scoring: Under(62.8%), Par(33.7%), Over(3.5%)

Hole #8: Par 3 • 210 yards • Rank: 5

The distance isn’t so much of the difficulty on this hole as is the fact that it plays at moderate length but 25 feet downhill to a green that slopes back toward the players. That makes club selection paramount for players and it gets even tougher if the winds start swirling around the gaps in the trees near the green. Also when hitting downhill into a green that slopes towards you it is much tougher to gauge how the ball will spin when it lands. It’s a perfect recipe for over cooking one and backing it way up. Only 11% of the players make birdie here and this hole ranks first in double bogeys (4) per round.

Tee Shot 1: 210
Green: 26/46
Elevation: -25
Direction: North
Scoring: Under(11.1%), Par(68.9%), Over(20%)

Hole #9: Par 4 • 460 yards • Rank: 6

Rounding up the outward nine is another difficult hole from tee to green. Most players will choose to stay right of the fairway bunker that guards a shortcut to the green. Long hitters though get a very respectable bump of the fairway with a 300 yard carry they can easily cut the corner and have an excellent approach. The fairway does angle to the left and many that try to bomb it will end up in the right rough, which has no obstructions other than the tall grass, so the trade-off is would you rather shoot from the rough at 140ish yards or the fairway at upwards of 190? Worse yet, those unfortunate souls that find the deep fairway bunker will be struggling to make par.

Tee Shot 1: 290/183, 40
Tee Shot 2: 330/130, 37
Green: 39/31
Elevation: +5
Direction: Southwest
Scoring: Under(12.7%), Par(61.9%), Over(25.4%)

Hole #10: Par 4 • 502 yards • Rank: 2

Continuing the tough stretch of holes that started at eight, this one gets even worse. On top of being one of the longest par 4s on the course this one gets tricky on and around the greens with some awkward sloping that can bring the three putts into play. On the bright side they aren’t hitting uphill on the approach shot so the players can actually see the flag. You can see by the percentages that one player in every grouping will average bogey or worse on this hole.

Tee Shot 1: 290/212, 30
Tee Shot 2: 330/170, 26
Green: 31/28
Elevation: +3
Direction: North
Scoring: Under(6.1%), Par(63.7%), Over(30.2%)

Hole #11: Par 4 • 435 yards • Rank: 8

Players have to keep up the grind for the fourth hole in a row now even though this seem like is should be an easier par 4 based on length. The fairway is guarded on both sides by bunkers that bottleneck right in the landing zone of 270 to 290 yards from the tee. Keeping it on the short grass can be rewarded and missing the fairway once again will make gained par very tough. This is another hole where a double bogey can come into play from the tee and/or from the approach.

Tee Shot 1: 290/145, 21
Tee Shot 2: 330/105, 25
Green: 28/28
Elevation: -4
Direction: South
Scoring: Under(14%), Par(61.9%), Over(24.1%)

Hole #12: Par 4 • 501 yards • Rank: 7

If a player has managed to survive the previous four holes unscathed they still have to grind out another 500 yard monster. Unlike hole 10, it only takes a 270 yard drive to cover the bunker in the fairway, but reaching the green is almost impossible from the rough that far out. It is made even worse by some more bunkers that block any poor shots coming in. There are more pars scored on this hole compared to the more difficult tenth.

Tee Shot 1: 290/215, 34
Tee Shot 2: 330/160, 24
Green: 33/38
Elevation: +/-0
Direction: Southwest
Scoring: Under(9.1%), Par(70.1%), Over(20.8%)

Hole #13: Par 5 • 608 yards • Rank: 16

Any 600 yard hole has to be tough based on length alone, it even sounds scary saying it. Tour pros seem to make light work of it and just play their game here and score with a short wedge. Of the par 5s though this one can be where you gain some separation in fantasy games. Unlike holes five and 7 this one only gives up birdie or better 30% of the time and in 2012 there were no eagles scored. With only one of every three golfers making birdie, getting one here is a nice boost to the score. As a side note, without anyone reaching this in two shots it makes it more of a strikers game on this hole playing 3 quality shots to the green to gain the birdie.

Tee Shot 1: 290/210/100, 28
Tee Shot 2: 330/200/70, 28
Green: 24/28
Elevation: -10
Direction: South
Scoring: Under(30.2%), Par(53.8%), Over(16%)

Hole #14: Par 3 • 161 yards • Rank: 15

The identity of this hole will be the pin placements from day to day. The scoring can change quite drastically if placed in certain locations of this green. Also, if any of your guys hit the ball into the front-right bunker say a quick prayer for them before they hit their second shot because they will need all the help they can get to save par from there. This one can also be considered a semi-scoring hole almost reaching the 20% mark in Under-Par scoring.

Tee Shot 1: 161
Green: 36/30
Elevation: -5
Direction: South
Scoring: Under(19%), Par(67.8%), Over(13.2%)

Hole #15: Par 4 • 478 yards • Rank: 9

The tee shot on this hole is fairly wide open but players need to be in the short grass for the uphill approach into the crazy sloping green. Referring back to playing this one in a video game, putting on this green can get out of hand if players don’t leave their ball below the pin in almost any location of this green. Even Mr. Digital Tiger Woods can make a double bogey here from the rough! Or at least with my assistance he can. If any short hitters don’t find the fairway here it will begin a journey for them to save par.

Tee Shot 1: 290/185, 26
Tee Shot 2: 330/150, 26
Green: 24/35
Elevation: +30
Direction: North
Scoring: Under(13.5%), Par(61.7%), Over(24.9%)

Hole #16: Par 4 • 490 yards • Rank: 10

It seems like they could find another 10 yards of tee box just so they could boast having another 500 yard par 4 on the card. This one is a little more manageable since it plays almost 60 feet downhill off the tee. A straight drive even from shorter hitters will gain a good bit of extra distance because of this.

Tee Shot 1: 290/195, 27
Tee Shot 2: 330/155, 28
Green: 26/29
Elevation: -60
Direction: South
Scoring: Under(11.9%), Par(65.7%), Over(22.3%)

Hole #17: Par 3 • 207 yards • Rank: 4

Heading towards the clubhouse players that birdie this hole will be stealing one from the field. It is around a 1:3 ratio, under to over scoring here. The green is not very deep and there is trouble all around it.

Tee Shot 1: 207
Green: 39/26
Elevation: +6
Direction: West
Scoring: Under(6.9%), Par(71.1%), Over(22.1%)

Hole #18: Par 4 • 411 yards • Rank: 11

The home hole gives players a decent chance at a closing birdie. This hole does bring some excitement to the closing of a tournament since it is one of those middle of the road holes I referred to a few weeks back. What that means is the under and over scoring are somewhat similar and the par percentage is not over 70%. I usually would like for them to be more like 25/50/25 to call them a split but this one is close enough for a finishing hole. Players need a well struck tee shot to set up an uphill approach with a wedge. The trick to this hole is that it plays almost 40 feet downhill off the tee then 30 feet back uphill to the green. That seems to be the theme for this course. Long hitters can airmail all those bunkers with about 310 carry but that seems manageable since it is so far downhill.

Tee Shot 1: 290/122, 23
Tee Shot 2: 330/90, 21
Green: 26/31
Elevation: -15
Direction: South
Scoring: Under(14.2%), Par(64.2%), Over(21.6%)

Summary

2012 Stat Averages for all players T10 or better:
Average Drive: 297.1
Driving Accuracy: 64.278
GIR: 66.44%
Putts (Per GIR): 1.744
Eagles: (.6)
Birdies: (15)
Pars: (45.2)
Bogeys: (10.7)
Double Bogey and DB+: (.6)
Average Compiled Fantasy Score: 66.7 (no placement or bonuses)

I can usually find an angle each week to not stick with the bomber theory but this course is a harder nut to crack on that one. Sure there are holes where players who are more accurate than long have a fighting chance with the bombers, but so many holes can be set up for much better approach shots with exceptional distance off the tees. This is not a US Open so I would assume the rough is playable, so unless shots go completely astray players should be able to recover. So if you are pulling stats from the 2009 tournament keep that in mind. Also, as evident by the images, there is enough beach here to make Hasselhoff jealous. Another interesting thing I can point out about the previous players’ stats is that the top 10 and better guys all average almost 11 bogeys. This is a give-take course for sure and is evident by a 1.4 birdie to bogey ratio. The overall winner Nick Watney even had 13 bogeys and a double to go with his 23 birdies! This should be a fun and interesting week. I encourage everyone to read my analysis then decide for yourself what may or may not be the best attributes to look for in players. That is why I have went away from suggesting stat categories to focus on. I know that sometimes I get too locked in on a particular stat and it tends to lead to poor DFS lineups. Look at the whole course as one giant painting and decide which brushes will be the best to paint it with. So maybe you can get some Bob Ross love and your players only hit it through or near “Happy Trees!”

Good luck this week to all and may the strokes be ever in your favor!