PGA Ownership Report: Pebble Beach Pro-Am
Here’s the data for this week’s $3 Birdie at the Pebble Beach Pro-Am!!
| Name | Ownership |
| Justin Rose | 40.6% |
| Phil Mickelson | 32.4% |
| Patrick Reed | 30.3% |
| Shane Lowry | 27.8% |
| Matt Kuchar | 25.1% |
Full field ownerships (for the $3, the $33, and cash games) can be found here!
And we have a co-ownerships matrix that shows who the highest owned pairs of golfers were in this week’s $3 Birdie:
It’s amateur hour on the course this week but we’re getting into the swing of the season and everyone should be getting a rhythm with picking their players … let’s see who got the most attention at Pebble Beach this week!
Justin Rose (40% GPP, 83% Cash) – WOWZERS! One of the most epic ownership profiles EVER. For sure. This is a new trend really with the 70%, 80% owned guys in cash. In most sports those are reserved for something more along the lines of a pricing error – or a drastic change in playing time due to injury in NBA, or something. I don’t think they are really making pricing errors to any extent but it’s magnified by the conglomeration of PGA research, I believe? I mean Mr. Rose is undoubtedly in a good spot, good situation, good form, good salary – but like I said that is an EXTRAORDINARY ownership profile. It will be very interesting to see if he ends up being that “necessary” and how everyone reacts, and how people will handle situations like this in the future based on whether he comes through or not when it’s all said and done! (Full disclosure, I didn’t take Justin Rose at all in GPPs – just went a different route! Fingers crossed!)
Phil Mickelson (32% GPP, 69% Cash) – I mean this would be an epic ownership unto itself if Rose didn’t steal the spotlight. Mickelson was more on my radar than Rose was as a guy who just REALLY likes to play well here. Rose has been red hot but Mickelson has done REALLY well here more often than he’s done OKAY and rarely ever done BAD. With Patrick Reed and Shane Lowry’s cash game ownerships (both over 60% as well) we’re looking at a TON of teams with 3 out of 6 golfers the same, and a really significant chunk with 4 out of 6 golfers the same. Honestly, regardless of their performance, I don’t know – but it really drives the variance through the roof and cuts down on the edge IF they are actually good plays. If you think they’re terrible plays then it’s a huge edge. We will see but to me the game isn’t as interesting if it continues like this. Not complaining – I don’t think we’ll see this level of coherence consistently in the future!
Let’s go a different direction and look at a couple of lower-owned guys that were interesting to me!
Jason Day (10% GPP, 1% Cash) I want to say forget about the cash ownership – it’s all so skewed with everyone starting with Rose/Mickelson and building balanced from there. But still ONE PERCENT. Pretty impressive. More interesting to me is 10% GPP putting him squarely way behind Dustin Johnson and Jordan Spieth as far as the high-salary guys go. All three are suited to win here as much or more than anyone, I just find it interesting that Day comes in at half the rate of the others. I think the Day owners are happy, and the DJ and Spieth owners don’t care.
Vaughn Taylor (9% GPP, 5% Cash) – Mr. Taylor! Last year’s champion! Bottom-barrel salary .. of course he hasn’t done anything since. But I’m still a believer in the robo-swing machine! To me it’s more concrete evidence for a repeat than a lot of “course-fit” anecdotes. We have the privilege of knowing he had FIVE birdies today and still shot +1. To me that bodes well for tomorrow – two double bogeys are unlikely to happen again. But WOW predicting golf round-to-round is always a bold statement. I really am a huge fan and am obviously rooting for the guy, and the cynic in me thinks it would be great if he finished really high again and not many people owned him again! It’s definitely still anyone’s ballgame!
Good luck everyone!