PGA Projected Ownership: BMW Championship
Sales for Scotty Cameron M1 putters should be brisk this week. I’m a sucker, I’ll buy one. And why not? Did you see Rory McIlroy (12.78% pOwn%, 12.88% actual) putting with his new Scotty Cameron M1 prototype on Monday? Rory looked smooth, Rory looked confident with his new sharpshooter. Paul Casey (7.26% pOwn%, 6.45% actual) opened the door by losing his 66 groove on Monday and Rory putted his way to a big win by two strokes at the Deutsche Bank. Jimmy Walker (3.58% pOwn%, 5.43% actual) and Adam Scott (25.29% pOwn%, 22.34% actual) showed well finishing 3rd and 4th, respectively.
Congrats to nawmsayin for taking down the DK $400K Drive the Green Championship. The winning roster had a total ownership of 61.7%. nawmsayin paired chalky Adam Scott with Rory and four other low-owned players: Casey, Kokrak, Louis and Swafford. Well done nawmsayin.
Editor’s Note: In the near future, subscribers to DraftKings PGA Premium content will have access to all current week and historical pOwn% data. Updates will be made throughout the week due to injury news, tout activity, odds/line movement, weather/tee-times, etc. But for this week, focusing on the $33 DK Dogleg, everyone has access to everything. Enjoy!
This Week’s Tweaks:
This will be our last week of the season. I’ve had a lot of fun with this article and hope it’s helped a few folks win a few bucks. For the new 2016-2017 PGA season, this article will be a part of the PGA Premium content lineup.
We get a quick turnaround this week, the Deutsche Bank ended on Monday and DK was late releasing Salary data on Tuesday. Our numbers were close last week, so we are not tweaking the machine that much. The BMW is a no-cut event, strengthening the popularity of “stars and scrubs” roster construction. The weather looks interesting. Lots of rain in the forecast. Perhaps a Tee-Time advantage will emerge, we’ll keep an eye on it. Top narratives of the week: Crooked Stick Golf Club is a BOMBER’S course. Pete Dye design (Kuch time). Captain Love III still needs to make his Captain’s picks. Who’s next to make a big equipment change?
We will be working the DK $450K ($33 entry) Dogleg this week.
Upper Tier ($10K +):
Rory McIlroy (25% pOwn% and rising): Rory’s faded the hell out of his old Nike putter. And lots of DFSers are now done fading Rory. How about this stat? 5.3 strokes gained putting over the entire Deutsche Bank tourney. Wow. Okay, so maybe putting coach Phil Kenyon had something to do with the incredible putting. Whatever is happening, it’s working. We all said, if Rory could putt the rest of the field was in trouble. Well that day (no, not you Jason) is here.
Adam Scott (29% pOwn%): The Aussie was well on his way to another ho-hum chalk finish last week until he started draining some putts of his own on Monday. Scott matched Rory’s Monday 65 to finish fourth and to remind us all that he is in great form right now. DK applies a $200 salary cut this week. Spieth gets a bigger salary dump and is just $300 more than Scott. Adam Scott just looks like such a better play than Spieth right now. Doesn’t he? Adam Scott looks like he can win the whole thing.
Middle Tier ($8K – $10K):
Patrick Reed (14% pOwn%): What’s this guy gotta do to get some ownership respect?! After winning the Barclays, Reed only fetched 9% ownership (yeah, big salary jump to 10.2K) in last week’s DK Dogleg. Reed was steady and in the mix all Labor Day weekend, finishing T5 on Monday at the Deutsche Bank. DK knows Reed is chalk repellent, so they feel safe in lowering his salary by $500. What is it that keeps Reed from ever being chalk? Is it because he’s fat? Is it his cheating/cocky/villain reputation? Whatever it is, Reed just can’t crack 15% ownership. If his recent performance numbers were attached to Rickie Fowler this week, Rickie would be at 40% pOwn%.
Gary Woodland (12% pOwn%): Woodland’s long game (and DK Salary) is really trending up. As of Tuesday night, his odds are identical to salary neighbors Ryan Moore, Emiliano Grillo and Bubba Watson. Bubba and Emiliano will be bleeding ownership after disappointing weeks in Boston. Woodland could use the help as DK has raised his salary by $700. But DK also placed Deutsche Bank stars Paul Casey and Jimmy Walker directly below Woodland. It’s a very interesting set of considerations. Most will ultimately take flight away from Woodland, leaving him under-owned again.
Lower Tier ($6.5K – $8K):
Brooks Koepka (12% pOwn%): Koepka’s DK salary has dropped from $10.1 to $8K since the Barclays. He making the cuts (barely). He’s also carrying decent ownership with him: 14.75% at Barclays and 11.60% in the last two DK Doglegs. He’s got the best odds in this price range and he did turn things around with a 68 on windy Monday at the Deutsche Bank. The timing might be right to get back on the Koepka train.
Kevin Na (17% pOwn%): Baby swag alert! After WDing from the Deutsche Bank to celebrate his new baby girl, Na returns for the BMW. DK has slapped three chalk king candidates together in the $6.8-6.9K range: Jason Dufner, Ryan Palmer and Na. Even though Na really disappointed with a cut at 20%+ ownership at the Barclays, we can forgive him because baby girl was on the way. It’s easy to brush off the recent performance of Fabian Gomez, David Hearn and Frownie Kaufman. There are so many reasons for Na to win out and take the chalk prize this week.
Updates will be made Wednesday night and a few hours before roster lock.
Good luck this week Grinders! And farewell, see you next season!
| Golfer | Sal | Odds | Mon pOwn% | Tue pOwn% | Wed pOwn% | Thu pOwn% | % Change Since Open | % Change Since Yesterday | ContR | Act Own% | Var |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rory McIlroy | $11,900 | 6.57/1 | 23.43% | 23.43% | 26.62% | 25.75% | 2.32% | -0.87% | 4.46 | 19.00% | 6.75% |
| Jason Day | $11,600 | 9.16/1 | 20.10% | 20.10% | 19.64% | 20.61% | 0.51% | 0.97% | 5.69 | 19.16% | 1.45% |
| Dustin Johnson | $11,300 | 10.1/1 | 18.61% | 18.61% | 21.81% | 23.16% | 4.55% | 1.35% | 4.85 | 21.79% | 1.37% |
| Jordan Spieth | $10,500 | 17.05/1 | 13.78% | 13.78% | 10.54% | 9.64% | -4.14% | -0.90% | 11.14 | 16.78% | -7.14% |
| Adam Scott | $10,200 | 16.35/1 | 27.16% | 27.16% | 28.77% | 29.38% | 2.22% | 0.61% | 3.74 | 25.35% | 4.03% |
| Justin Rose | $10,000 | 36.5/1 | 8.27% | 8.27% | 6.63% | 6.01% | -2.26% | -0.62% | 17.23 | 7.76% | -1.75% |
| Patrick Reed | $9,700 | 27.5/1 | 14.43% | 14.43% | 14.24% | 14.23% | -0.20% | -0.01% | 7.37 | 20.06% | -5.83% |
| Sergio Garcia | $9,500 | 41.5/1 | 11.05% | 11.05% | 9.65% | 10.08% | -0.97% | 0.43% | 10.01 | 8.56% | 1.52% |
| Louis Oosthuizen | $9,300 | 49/1 | 8.22% | 8.22% | 7.04% | 7.12% | -1.10% | 0.08% | 12.70 | 8.26% | -1.14% |
| Hideki Matsuyama | $9,100 | 46/1 | 13.75% | 13.75% | 13.42% | 13.88% | 0.13% | 0.46% | 7.18 | 11.81% | 2.07% |
| Rickie Fowler | $8,900 | 37.5/1 | 13.63% | 13.63% | 16.40% | 16.97% | 3.34% | 0.57% | 6.03 | 14.67% | 2.30% |
| Phil Mickelson | $8,800 | 52/1 | 11.70% | 11.70% | 10.09% | 9.76% | -1.94% | -0.33% | 10.07 | 11.02% | -1.26% |
| Ryan Moore | $8,700 | 62/1 | 10.04% | 10.04% | 10.82% | 10.22% | 0.18% | -0.60% | 8.07 | 12.39% | -2.17% |
| Bubba Watson | $8,600 | 44/1 | 13.11% | 13.11% | 14.17% | 15.62% | 2.51% | 1.45% | 6.21 | 19.83% | -4.21% |
| Emiliano Grillo | $8,500 | 54/1 | 12.69% | 12.69% | 11.86% | 10.75% | -1.94% | -1.11% | 8.29 | 12.76% | -2.01% |
| Gary Woodland | $8,400 | 49/1 | 10.55% | 10.55% | 10.67% | 11.83% | 1.28% | 1.16% | 7.75 | 10.05% | 1.78% |
| Paul Casey | $8,300 | 49/1 | 18.32% | 18.32% | 14.38% | 13.37% | -4.95% | -1.01% | 6.96 | 14.34% | -0.97% |
| Matt Kuchar | $8,200 | 82/1 | 14.38% | 14.38% | 13.66% | 10.95% | -3.43% | -2.71% | 7.89 | 11.20% | -0.25% |
| Jimmy Walker | $8,100 | 56/1 | 10.61% | 10.61% | 10.42% | 10.27% | -0.34% | -0.15% | 9.19 | 12.65% | -2.38% |
| Brooks Koepka | $8,000 | 57/1 | 11.64% | 11.64% | 12.00% | 12.60% | 0.96% | 0.60% | 7.59 | 22.33% | -9.73% |
| Billy Horschel | $7,900 | 154/1 | 6.73% | 6.73% | 3.02% | 1.71% | -5.02% | -1.31% | 36.32 | 3.30% | -1.59% |
| Russell Knox | $7,800 | 87/1 | 14.29% | 14.29% | 13.76% | 12.94% | -1.35% | -0.82% | 6.07 | 11.42% | 1.52% |
| Daniel Berger | $7,800 | 77/1 | 9.79% | 9.79% | 9.65% | 8.85% | -0.94% | -0.80% | 9.02 | 10.38% | -1.53% |
| Brandt Snedeker | $7,700 | 86/1 | 11.97% | 11.97% | 9.24% | 9.13% | -2.84% | -0.11% | 9.32 | 6.66% | 2.47% |
| Kevin Chappell | $7,700 | 91/1 | 15.74% | 15.74% | 13.43% | 12.75% | -2.99% | -0.68% | 6.05 | 8.83% | 3.92% |
| J.B. Holmes | $7,600 | 95/1 | 9.72% | 9.72% | 10.81% | 10.92% | 1.20% | 0.11% | 6.82 | 6.85% | 4.07% |
| Si-Woo Kim | $7,600 | 128/1 | 3.25% | 3.25% | 3.58% | 3.10% | -0.15% | -0.48% | 23.13 | 4.32% | -1.22% |
| Tony Finau | $7,600 | 95/1 | 10.67% | 10.67% | 11.62% | 12.14% | 1.47% | 0.52% | 5.68 | 11.23% | 0.91% |
| Jason Kokrak | $7,500 | 107/1 | 8.18% | 8.18% | 9.40% | 9.78% | 1.60% | 0.38% | 7.47 | 9.68% | 0.10% |
| Jhonattan Vegas | $7,500 | 185/1 | 5.21% | 5.21% | 6.35% | 6.83% | 1.62% | 0.48% | 9.69 | 7.86% | -1.03% |
| Brendan Steele | $7,400 | 200/1 | 0.93% | 0.93% | 1.36% | 1.64% | 0.71% | 0.28% | 36.20 | 1.87% | -0.23% |
| Branden Grace | $7,400 | 71/1 | 13.10% | 13.10% | 13.48% | 14.35% | 1.25% | 0.87% | 4.90 | 11.95% | 2.40% |
| Charl Schwartzel | $7,300 | 115/1 | 14.82% | 14.82% | 14.03% | 13.48% | -1.34% | -0.55% | 6.22 | 15.28% | -1.80% |
| Justin Thomas | $7,300 | 95/1 | 10.87% | 10.87% | 11.31% | 11.91% | 1.04% | 0.60% | 6.36 | 13.77% | -1.86% |
| Zach Johnson | $7,300 | 145/1 | 8.91% | 8.91% | 7.94% | 7.43% | -1.48% | -0.51% | 8.73 | 9.16% | -1.73% |
| Kevin Kisner | $7,200 | 192/1 | 8.64% | 8.64% | 6.19% | 5.44% | -3.20% | -0.75% | 11.17 | 4.73% | 0.71% |
| Bill Haas | $7,200 | 250/1 | 6.75% | 6.75% | 4.62% | 3.71% | -3.04% | -0.91% | 14.16 | 2.36% | 1.35% |
| Marc Leishman | $7,100 | 226/1 | 2.53% | 2.53% | 2.74% | 2.90% | 0.37% | 0.16% | 20.00 | 2.49% | 0.41% |
| Scott Piercy | $7,100 | 211/1 | 5.62% | 5.62% | 5.53% | 5.59% | -0.03% | 0.06% | 9.64 | 3.64% | 1.95% |
| Hudson Swafford | $7,100 | 223/1 | 1.80% | 1.80% | 7.70% | 8.73% | 6.93% | 1.03% | 6.49 | 9.30% | -0.57% |
| David Lingmerth | $7,000 | 344/1 | 0.66% | 0.66% | 0.65% | 0.61% | -0.05% | -0.04% | 68.15 | 1.14% | -0.53% |
| Brian Harman | $7,000 | 344/1 | 1.76% | 1.76% | 1.52% | 1.42% | -0.34% | -0.10% | 28.31 | 1.43% | -0.01% |
| Luke Donald | $7,000 | 341/1 | 1.81% | 1.81% | 1.01% | 0.89% | -0.92% | -0.12% | 43.64 | 1.24% | -0.35% |
| Billy Hurley | $6,900 | 416/1 | 0.52% | 0.52% | 0.48% | 0.37% | -0.15% | -0.11% | 97.56 | 1.58% | -1.21% |
| Charles Howell | $6,900 | 269/1 | 4.08% | 4.08% | 4.26% | 4.28% | 0.20% | 0.02% | 14.83 | 7.52% | -3.24% |
| Jamie Lovemark | $6,900 | 279/1 | 4.74% | 4.74% | 4.33% | 4.05% | -0.69% | -0.28% | 10.94 | 2.92% | 1.13% |
| Sean O’Hair | $6,900 | 238/1 | 5.34% | 5.34% | 4.25% | 4.31% | -1.03% | 0.06% | 12.82 | 3.26% | 1.05% |
| Jason Dufner | $6,900 | 135/1 | 15.44% | 15.44% | 16.80% | 18.34% | 2.90% | 1.54% | 4.43 | 13.74% | 4.60% |
| Ryan Palmer | $6,800 | 125/1 | 16.80% | 16.80% | 18.82% | 22.83% | 6.03% | 4.01% | 3.84 | 25.26% | -2.43% |
| Kevin Na | $6,800 | 145/1 | 23.17% | 23.17% | 22.67% | 16.94% | -6.23% | -5.73% | 3.99 | 21.45% | -4.51% |
| Fabian Gomez | $6,800 | 471/1 | 2.63% | 2.63% | 2.61% | 2.35% | -0.28% | -0.26% | 2.17% | 0.18% | |
| Smylie Kaufman | $6,800 | 155/1 | 8.45% | 8.45% | 10.27% | 11.37% | 2.92% | 1.10% | 4.26 | 5.58% | 5.79% |
| Aaron Baddeley | $6,800 | 454/1 | 0.91% | 0.91% | 1.15% | 1.17% | 0.26% | 0.02% | 0.65% | 0.52% | |
| Vaughn Taylor | $6,700 | 624/1 | 0.38% | 0.38% | 0.39% | 0.31% | -0.07% | -0.08% | 98.78 | 0.46% | -0.15% |
| Harris English | $6,700 | 214/1 | 5.07% | 5.07% | 9.28% | 12.17% | 7.10% | 2.89% | 4.09 | 6.31% | 5.86% |
| David Hearn | $6,700 | 324/1 | 4.94% | 4.94% | 5.64% | 5.10% | 0.16% | -0.54% | 6.81 | 3.08% | 2.02% |
| Kevin Streelman | $6,600 | 478/1 | 1.76% | 1.76% | 1.60% | 1.35% | -0.41% | -0.25% | 0.69% | 0.66% | |
| Chris Kirk | $6,600 | 269/1 | 8.91% | 8.91% | 9.44% | 9.83% | 0.92% | 0.39% | 4.79 | 2.96% | 6.87% |
| Graeme McDowell | $6,500 | 499/1 | 2.56% | 2.56% | 2.31% | 1.98% | -0.58% | -0.33% | 1.92% | 0.06% | |
| James Hahn | $6,500 | 291/1 | 4.34% | 4.34% | 4.01% | 4.84% | 0.50% | 0.83% | 6.61 | 4.59% | 0.25% |
| William McGirt | $6,500 | 310/1 | 3.80% | 3.80% | 4.36% | 5.01% | 1.21% | 0.65% | 9.12 | 5.58% | -0.57% |
| Brian Stuard | $6,400 | 552/1 | 0.63% | 0.63% | 0.61% | 0.59% | -0.04% | -0.02% | 2.12% | -1.53% | |
| Charley Hoffman | $6,400 | 247/1 | 14.59% | 14.59% | 12.54% | 6.40% | -8.19% | -6.14% | 7.99 | 6.17% | 0.23% |
| Ben Martin | $6,300 | 523/1 | 0.92% | 0.92% | 0.90% | 0.91% | -0.01% | 0.01% | 36.66 | 1.64% | -0.73% |
| Roberto Castro | $6,300 | 329/1 | 1.88% | 1.88% | 2.34% | 4.95% | 3.07% | 2.61% | 8.68 | 8.80% | -3.85% |
| Kyle Reifers | $6,200 | 545/1 | 0.95% | 0.95% | 1.13% | 1.89% | 0.94% | 0.76% | 3.10% | -1.21% | |
| Daniel Summerhays | $6,200 | 420/1 | 5.83% | 5.83% | 6.26% | 8.84% | 3.01% | 2.58% | 4.24 | 5.28% | 3.56% |
| Jim Herman | $6,100 | 590/1 | 0.92% | 0.92% | 0.94% | 0.96% | 0.04% | 0.02% | 2.64% | -1.68% | |
| Jon Curran | $6,100 | 904/1 | 1.22% | 1.22% | 0.84% | 0.41% | -0.81% | -0.43% | 1.25% | -0.84% |