PGA Projected Ownership: CIMB Classic
Last Week: Alright, the new PGA season is underway! Brendan Steele (6.42 pOwn%, 16.24% actual) spun a cool 65 on Sunday to take the Safeway Open by one stroke over Patton Kizzire (1.69 pOwn%, 4.66% actual). Among those tied for 3rd Place were Paul Casey (39.17% pOwn%, 24.86% actual) and Scott Piercy (6.41% pOwn%, 7.73% actual).
As you can see by the Casey and Steele ownership data above, I was not in mid-season form last week. We knew it was going to be a challenging pOwn% week, coming back from the brief off-season and dealing with the numerous Web.com Tour grads. Speaking of which, Cody Gribble (0.01% pOwn%, 0.09% actual) surprised with a T8 finish. Trey Mullinax (4.41% pOwn%, 5.33% actual) also impressed with a T22. Everybody’s Web.com Tour grad favorite, Grayson Murray (13.87% pOwn%, 17.87% actual), disappointed by missing the cut.
Editor’s Note: In the near future, subscribers to DraftKings PGA Premium content will have access to all current week and historical pOwn% data. Updates will be made throughout the week due to injury news, tout activity, odds/line movement, weather/tee-times, etc. But for this week, focusing on the $33 DK Dogleg, everyone has access to everything. Enjoy!
This Week’s Tweaks:
We again expect a higher concentration of “sharps” this week as only the PGA diehards seem to be interested with the NFL, NHL and NBA in play. The golfers are traveling to Malaysia this week, perhaps we can expect a slight circadian disadvantage for the Safeway Open participants. The CIMB Classic is a no cut event, so we expect more “Stars and Scrubs” aggressive roster-building along with the dismissal of lame cut-makers like Hudson Swafford. Early weather forecasts look good. Course history analysis should be more in play. Tout material weighting is elevated this week in our model. The PGA diehards are also playing NFL, etc and may be pressed for research/process time, becoming more susceptible to touting.
We will be focusing on the DK $115K ($33 entry) Dogleg this week.
Upper Tier ($9K +):
Adam Scott (34% pOwn% and rising): Paul Casey and Patrick Reed opened the week as favorites to win the CIMB Classic, but Adam Scott overtook them on Tuesday afternoon. It’s not often that we find the Vegas outright win favorite ranking #4 on the DK Salary list. Casey has had a great run, even finished strong for a T3 last week in the Safeway Open. But we like to target players trending up, like a Paul Casey after the Barclays. Scott will have chunky ownership competition from Patrick Reed, but will plunder lots of ownership from often-overlooked neighbors including Hideki Matsuyama and Bye-Hun An. If you use chalky Adam Scott in GPPs this week, you better pair him with several sub-10% owned golfers.
Ryan Moore (23% pOwn% and rising): If you’re into “Recent Form” and “Course History”, then Ryan Moore is your guy. But Moore is priced way up this week, over the $10K threshold and just $300 cheaper than Adam Scott. Can you blame DK for the steep price? Moore won this event in the 2013/2014 and 2014/2015 seasons before “slipping” to a T10 finish last season. Moore is only behind Adam Scott and Rafa C-B in line movement among his Upper Tier neighbors. And the touts are buzzing…
Middle Tier ($7K – $9K):
Emiliano Grillo (22% pOwn%): Grillo disappointed in his title defense at the Safeway Open, finishing T26 at an expensive $10.6K salary and 16% GPP ownership. DK drops Grillo all the way down to $8.6K, behind four other fellow Safeway Open participants including two salary neighbors: Scott Piercy ($8.9K) and Brendan Steele ($8.8K). Steele and Piercy finished 1st and T3 last week and both finished in the Top 7 in the CIMB last year. This is Emiliano’s first appearance in the CIMB. Damn, this write-up is worse than a Kevin Na/J.B. Holmes pairing (slow playing as hell!). What I’m getting at is that Grillo could be under-owned this week even with the lower salary. Although Vegas isn’t all-in with this Steele/Piercy recency bias/course history stuff. Grillo is the Line Movement stud in this salary range.
Charles Howell (21% pOwn%): Okay, so CHIII was one of my biggest whiffs last week: (4.0% pOwn%, 19.02% actual). Initially I thought it was a name-scrubbing mishap throwing off the model. Data is brought in from all over, sometimes the name-scrubbing for guys like Howell, Varner, Shiv Chawrasia, etc can cause things to go awry. But that wasn’t it. The screw up occurred during the manual review/editing part of the pOwn% process exposing a faulty cognitive bias that I’m very aware of: I’m a huge Oklahoma State University fan and personally love rooting for guys like Howell, Fowler and Mahan. So naturally I sometimes exaggerate the downside of my Cowboy favs, aiming to be on the non-OSU-homer side of ownership projections. It’s safe to say I overdid it for Howell last week. Even after last week’s cut, Howell’s Top 10’s, Cuts Made and FPPG stats stand out as if they are in BRIGHT ORANGE in this $7K salary range.
Lower Tier ($6.2K – $7K):
Danny Lee (30% pOwn%): The Kiwi’s odds, OWG ranking, line movement and tout buzz really sticks out in this sub-$7K salary range. He’s hasn’t popped a Top Ten since the Scottish Open. But who are you going to pivot to for your Stars and Scrubs roster? Pat Perez? Gaganjeet Bhullar? Yeah, right.
Gavin Green (0.25% pOwn%): Green is my bet for highest owned Malaysian edging out Danny Chia. Green’s game log displays lots of cuts, but hey, it’s a no-cut event here at the CIMB Classic. Green could be a nice way to differentiate a Adam Scott/Patrick Reed/Grillo core for you adventurous types out there.
Updates will be made Wednesday afternoon and a few hours before roster lock. Don’t forget about the earlier Malaysian time roster lock!
Good luck this week Grinders!
| Golfer | Sal | Odds | Mon pOwn% | Tue pOwn% | Wed pOwn% | Thu pOwn% | % Change Since Open | % Change Since Yesterday | ContR | Act Own% | Var |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Casey | $11,600 | 15.45/1 | 18.41% | 17.33% | 15.97% | 13.04% | -5.37% | -2.93% | 9.39 | 11.02% | 2.02% |
| Hideki Matsuyama | $11,300 | 13.7/1 | 9.32% | 11.74% | 12.33% | 18.77% | 9.45% | 6.44% | 6.67 | 13.18% | 5.59% |
| Patrick Reed | $11,200 | 15.2/1 | 25.08% | 23.79% | 20.17% | 19.61% | -5.47% | -0.56% | 6.11 | 9.83% | 9.78% |
| Adam Scott | $10,900 | 13.7/1 | 31.18% | 32.83% | 33.82% | 35.63% | 4.45% | 1.81% | 3.59 | 30.26% | 5.37% |
| Ryan Moore | $10,600 | 16.15/1 | 9.37% | 17.29% | 22.64% | 21.84% | 12.47% | -0.80% | 5.36 | 15.62% | 6.22% |
| Justin Thomas | $10,400 | 22/1 | 7.49% | 11.70% | 12.38% | 10.25% | 2.76% | -2.13% | 10.88 | 12.98% | -2.73% |
| Sergio Garcia | $10,100 | 18.75/1 | 8.24% | 8.03% | 8.69% | 10.65% | 2.41% | 1.96% | 10.74 | 17.70% | -7.05% |
| Kevin Na | $9,900 | 24.5/1 | 24.72% | 20.77% | 18.76% | 17.49% | -7.23% | -1.27% | 6.46 | 17.08% | 0.41% |
| Gary Woodland | $9,600 | 31.5/1 | 7.36% | 6.95% | 7.50% | 7.98% | 0.62% | 0.48% | 13.79 | 15.67% | -7.69% |
| Byeong-Hun An | $9,400 | 50/1 | 2.49% | 1.97% | 1.30% | 1.12% | -1.37% | -0.18% | 97.01 | 6.50% | -5.38% |
| Rafa Cabrera-Bello | $9,200 | 42/1 | 18.05% | 14.26% | 15.15% | 10.47% | -7.58% | -4.68% | 9.97 | 19.36% | -8.89% |
| Kevin Chappell | $9,100 | 34/1 | 13.46% | 11.93% | 12.81% | 13.44% | -0.02% | 0.63% | 7.98 | 12.74% | 0.70% |
| Scott Piercy | $8,900 | 38/1 | 16.19% | 15.84% | 14.23% | 14.50% | -1.69% | 0.27% | 6.81 | 16.73% | -2.23% |
| Brendan Steele | $8,800 | 44/1 | 20.71% | 17.35% | 15.80% | 14.00% | -6.71% | -1.80% | 7.35 | 8.17% | 5.83% |
| Emiliano Grillo | $8,600 | 34/1 | 16.31% | 19.92% | 21.94% | 24.69% | 8.38% | 2.75% | 4.11 | 20.06% | 4.63% |
| Daniel Berger | $8,500 | 38/1 | 20.37% | 18.24% | 15.19% | 14.18% | -6.19% | -1.01% | 7.46 | 17.45% | -3.27% |
| Branden Grace | $8,400 | 47/1 | 13.50% | 13.05% | 16.56% | 13.71% | 0.21% | -2.85% | 7.09 | 12.76% | 0.95% |
| Anirban Lahiri | $8,300 | 75/1 | 1.67% | 1.74% | 2.44% | 2.30% | 0.63% | -0.14% | 36.77 | 5.44% | -3.14% |
| Russell Knox | $8,200 | 36/1 | 16.42% | 14.90% | 16.75% | 19.04% | 2.62% | 2.29% | 5.26 | 24.85% | -5.81% |
| Tony Finau | $8,100 | 57/1 | 13.88% | 12.76% | 10.35% | 10.25% | -3.63% | -0.10% | 9.21 | 18.25% | -8.00% |
| Si-Woo Kim | $7,900 | 51/1 | 13.69% | 13.78% | 14.67% | 15.34% | 1.65% | 0.67% | 6.06 | 23.06% | -7.72% |
| Scott Hend | $7,800 | 108/1 | 2.25% | 3.14% | 4.55% | 3.91% | 1.66% | -0.64% | 23.42 | 4.94% | -1.03% |
| Kevin Kisner | $7,700 | 71/1 | 20.94% | 13.46% | 11.73% | 12.24% | -8.70% | 0.51% | 7.83 | 13.23% | -0.99% |
| Keegan Bradley | $7,600 | 84/1 | 12.28% | 10.99% | 10.31% | 10.79% | -1.49% | 0.48% | 8.36 | 12.09% | -1.30% |
| Ryo Ishikawa | $7,500 | 130/1 | 0.44% | 1.29% | 3.09% | 3.57% | 3.13% | 0.48% | 23.32 | 4.89% | -1.32% |
| Jhonattan Vegas | $7,500 | 94/1 | 17.33% | 15.88% | 11.92% | 14.74% | -2.59% | 2.82% | 5.83 | 9.66% | 5.08% |
| Jamie Lovemark | $7,400 | 103/1 | 14.38% | 15.39% | 15.34% | 12.20% | -2.18% | -3.14% | 6.39 | 11.47% | 0.73% |
| Alex Cejka | $7,400 | 168/1 | 1.55% | 2.48% | 3.74% | 3.88% | 2.33% | 0.14% | 22.50 | 7.35% | -3.47% |
| Harold Varner | $7,300 | 108/1 | 11.19% | 12.40% | 12.66% | 12.16% | 0.97% | -0.50% | 5.54 | 11.07% | 1.09% |
| Ian Poulter | $7,300 | 210/1 | 1.44% | 1.38% | 1.27% | 0.86% | -0.58% | -0.41% | 81.39 | 1.09% | -0.23% |
| Younghan Song | $7,300 | 202/1 | 3.57% | 2.41% | 2.46% | 1.36% | -2.21% | -1.10% | 52.44 | 4.00% | -2.64% |
| Brian Harman | $7,200 | 102/1 | 7.46% | 5.78% | 4.18% | 4.90% | -2.56% | 0.72% | 16.45 | 3.53% | 1.37% |
| Soomin Lee | $7,200 | 213/1 | 0.50% | 0.52% | 0.49% | 0.43% | -0.07% | -0.06% | 113.49 | 0.42% | 0.01% |
| James Hahn | $7,200 | 102/1 | 6.12% | 5.17% | 4.83% | 5.25% | -0.87% | 0.42% | 14.34 | 4.27% | 0.98% |
| Jeunghun Wang | $7,100 | 303/1 | 0.62% | 0.45% | 0.42% | 0.20% | -0.42% | -0.22% | 283.75 | 0.57% | -0.37% |
| Billy Hurley | $7,100 | 154/1 | 0.70% | 0.68% | 0.65% | 0.92% | 0.22% | 0.27% | 68.88 | 0.65% | 0.27% |
| Aaron Baddeley | $7,100 | 196/1 | 5.86% | 4.85% | 3.27% | 2.40% | -3.46% | -0.87% | 24.75 | 3.15% | -0.75% |
| Marc Leishman | $7,000 | 103/1 | 10.81% | 8.19% | 6.85% | 7.32% | -3.49% | 0.47% | 12.12 | 14.32% | -7.00% |
| Daniel Summerhays | $7,000 | 174/1 | 5.34% | 4.63% | 3.50% | 3.10% | -2.24% | -0.40% | 22.15 | 2.36% | 0.74% |
| Patrick Rodgers | $7,000 | 136/1 | 12.83% | 10.11% | 10.16% | 10.00% | -2.83% | -0.16% | 7.40 | 7.25% | 2.75% |
| Jim Herman | $7,000 | 177/1 | 1.41% | 2.23% | 2.37% | 2.94% | 1.53% | 0.57% | 18.85 | 1.96% | 0.98% |
| Charles Howell | $7,000 | 115/1 | 24.66% | 21.36% | 21.24% | 19.55% | -5.11% | -1.69% | 4.19 | 14.90% | 4.65% |
| Miguel Tabuena | $6,900 | 556/1 | 0.48% | 0.71% | 0.77% | 0.23% | -0.25% | -0.54% | 0.47% | -0.24% | |
| Ernie Els | $6,900 | 343/1 | 0.62% | 0.60% | 0.58% | 0.57% | -0.05% | -0.01% | 57.74 | 0.57% | 0.00% |
| Smylie Kaufman | $6,900 | 121/1 | 9.80% | 9.62% | 8.72% | 9.42% | -0.38% | 0.70% | 6.87 | 4.44% | 4.98% |
| Chad Campbell | $6,900 | 223/1 | 1.17% | 1.13% | 1.02% | 1.11% | -0.06% | 0.09% | 42.77 | 1.59% | -0.48% |
| Shih-chang Chan | $6,900 | 319/1 | 2.47% | 2.70% | 1.79% | 1.48% | -0.99% | -0.31% | 25.82 | 5.46% | -3.98% |
| Peter Malnati | $6,800 | 496/1 | 0.96% | 1.48% | 1.56% | 0.98% | 0.02% | -0.58% | 1.66% | -0.68% | |
| Sung Kang | $6,800 | 213/1 | 1.76% | 1.71% | 1.86% | 2.15% | 0.39% | 0.29% | 17.15 | 1.04% | 1.11% |
| Colt Knost | $6,800 | 189/1 | 4.27% | 3.77% | 3.44% | 3.60% | -0.67% | 0.16% | 11.35 | 0.79% | 2.81% |
| Vijay Singh | $6,800 | 509/1 | 0.76% | 0.69% | 0.70% | 0.44% | -0.32% | -0.26% | 0.97% | -0.53% | |
| Jon Curran | $6,800 | 204/1 | 5.30% | 5.23% | 5.63% | 4.33% | -0.97% | -1.30% | 11.58 | 3.70% | 0.63% |
| Gaganjeet Bhullar | $6,700 | 690/1 | 0.03% | 0.11% | 0.15% | 0.13% | 0.10% | -0.02% | 0.20% | -0.07% | |
| Brian Stuard | $6,700 | 281/1 | 0.81% | 0.80% | 0.78% | 0.96% | 0.15% | 0.18% | 35.66 | 0.62% | 0.34% |
| Tyrone Van-Aswegen | $6,700 | 379/1 | 2.43% | 1.66% | 1.33% | 0.87% | -1.56% | -0.46% | 36.31 | 0.55% | 0.32% |
| Danny Lee | $6,700 | 96/1 | 15.94% | 26.95% | 29.70% | 32.67% | 16.73% | 2.97% | 2.43 | 16.86% | 15.81% |
| Pat Perez | $6,700 | 441/1 | 0.29% | 0.83% | 0.82% | 0.59% | 0.30% | -0.23% | 0.20% | 0.39% | |
| David Lingmerth | $6,600 | 129/1 | 6.76% | 9.82% | 9.66% | 10.89% | 4.13% | 1.23% | 6.67 | 6.60% | 4.29% |
| Zac Blair | $6,600 | 417/1 | 0.92% | 0.66% | 0.49% | 0.51% | -0.41% | 0.02% | 0.52% | -0.01% | |
| John Senden | $6,600 | 151/1 | 4.90% | 8.67% | 8.81% | 9.31% | 4.41% | 0.50% | 7.09 | 5.64% | 3.67% |
| Robert Streb | $6,600 | 204/1 | 3.45% | 3.29% | 3.20% | 2.74% | -0.71% | -0.46% | 19.74 | 4.34% | -1.60% |
| Hudson Swafford | $6,500 | 129/1 | 11.69% | 13.68% | 16.29% | 16.97% | 5.28% | 0.68% | 4.51 | 21.77% | -4.80% |
| K.J. Choi | $6,500 | 279/1 | 2.38% | 2.06% | 2.01% | 1.70% | -0.68% | -0.31% | 30.27 | 1.46% | 0.24% |
| David Hearn | $6,500 | 150/1 | 4.02% | 3.70% | 3.71% | 4.61% | 0.59% | 0.90% | 13.46 | 2.58% | 2.03% |
| Ricky Barnes | $6,500 | 189/1 | 4.28% | 3.55% | 3.30% | 3.08% | -1.20% | -0.22% | 14.13 | 4.02% | -0.94% |
| Marcus Fraser | $6,400 | 250/1 | 4.37% | 4.24% | 2.35% | 1.86% | -2.51% | -0.49% | 24.81 | 4.05% | -2.19% |
| Gavin Green | $6,400 | 815/1 | 0.26% | 0.23% | 0.24% | 0.23% | -0.03% | -0.01% | 0.47% | -0.24% | |
| Kyle Reifers | $6,400 | 169/1 | 11.17% | 11.89% | 11.74% | 10.86% | -0.31% | -0.88% | 5.35 | 8.07% | 2.79% |
| Spencer Levin | $6,400 | 288/1 | 2.78% | 3.11% | 3.24% | 3.58% | 0.80% | 0.34% | 11.78 | 1.79% | 1.79% |
| John Huh | $6,300 | 281/1 | 4.42% | 2.96% | 3.34% | 3.31% | -1.11% | -0.03% | 11.94 | 2.26% | 1.05% |
| Cameron Tringale | $6,300 | 181/1 | 1.67% | 5.75% | 5.23% | 5.64% | 3.97% | 0.41% | 7.95 | 2.81% | 2.83% |
| Chez Reavie | $6,300 | 170/1 | 8.07% | 7.66% | 7.49% | 7.90% | -0.17% | 0.41% | 7.69 | 11.54% | -3.64% |
| Adam Hadwin | $6,300 | 168/1 | 3.99% | 4.52% | 6.73% | 7.66% | 3.67% | 0.93% | 6.89 | 7.22% | 0.44% |
| Danny Chia | $6,200 | 832/1 | 0.14% | 0.18% | 0.20% | 0.21% | 0.07% | 0.01% | 0.42% | -0.21% | |
| Shiv Chawrasia | $6,200 | 729/1 | 0.21% | 0.19% | 0.27% | 0.26% | 0.05% | -0.01% | 0.12% | 0.14% | |
| Derek Fathauer | $6,200 | 228/1 | 5.74% | 5.15% | 6.80% | 6.62% | 0.88% | -0.18% | 5.37 | 5.46% | 1.16% |
| Mark Hubbard | $6,200 | 546/1 | 0.76% | 0.62% | 0.44% | 0.42% | -0.34% | -0.02% | 0.67% | -0.25% | |
| Brett Stegmaier | $6,200 | 401/1 | 1.34% | 1.12% | 1.13% | 1.09% | -0.25% | -0.04% | 27.76 | 1.19% | -0.10% |