PGA Projected Ownership: Deutsche Bank
Patrick Reed (13.50% pOwn%, 12.56% actual) scored a big win at the Barclays, finishing just one stroke ahead of Emiliano Grillo (8.62% pOwn%, 10.08% actual) and Sean O’Hair (0.88% pOwn%, 0.33% actual). Congrats to CHAOS77 for winning the DK Dogleg Championship by holding off several entries from familiar touts and max entry players. The winning roster featured a cumulative ownership in that familiar range of 60-80%, this time at 68.8%. When most used Stars and Scrubs style roster construction, CHAOS77 went more balanced fading the top 9 DK Salaried players.
Editor’s Note: In the near future, subscribers to DraftKings PGA Premium content will have access to all current week and historical pOwn% data. Updates will be made throughout the week due to injury news, tout activity, odds/line movement, weather/tee-times, etc. But for this week, focusing on the $3 DK Drive the Green Championship, everyone has access to everything. Enjoy!
This Week’s Tweaks:
Unlike last week when the trendy AM/PM flight really worked well, we shouldn’t have any weather concerns. There could be some rain on Thursday that could help soften the course and perhaps exciting the Bomber loving crowd. Stars and Scrubs roster construction should again the norm this week. We will slightly elevate course history weighting and “perceived ownership%” model weighting. It’s not quite a no-cut event, but the top 70 out of 99 will play the weekend. The steady cut-making Kuchar-types should be less popular. Some of the touts have been nailing their picks of late (and peppering the leaderboards too), tout material receptiveness will be weighted higher this week. There are not a lot of narrative streets running this week. The American Ryder Cup Captain’s picks have yet to be announced. There are several people on the FEC bubble. Russell Knox could be pissed about not making the Euro Team? 8/31 Update: Kevin Na and Alex Cejka both WD on Wednesday.
We will be focusing on the DK $400K ($3 entry) Drive the Green Championship this week.
Upper Tier ($10K +):
Jason Day (28% pOwn%): Dustin Johnson edged out Day as the GPP chalk last week. DJ’s T18 finish doesn’t seem too bad, but the 73 on Sunday has got to frustrate fantasy owners. The touts are loving Day this week and are bashing DJ. Day should gobble up lots of the DJ exodus as should Spieth, Rory and Adam Scott. The only thing stopping Day from being the chalk king is some crazy Day-like illness or situation that sometimes comes up. But as of this writing, no Jason Day situations have surfaced on the interwebs.
Adam Scott (23% and rising): If he could only putt!! There’s so much variance in putting. Maybe the putts start falling? If Adam Scott could get on a roll with the flat stick. Scott is the tout’s favorite pick this week, by far. The touts love every aspect of his game and seem to feel like the putts will start falling. Scott will consume much of the expected DJ exodus as well as former Stenson investors. He could challenge Day as top GPP owned by Friday.
Middle Tier ($8K – $10K):
Phil Mickelson (19% pOwn%): Phil comes in #2 in our tout buzz meter. Other top players with good recent form (Spieth, Scott and Rickie) are seeing DK salary increases, Phil gets a $400 salary decrease from last week. Phil will have some stout ownership competition from Sergio but other nearby players have issues that could prevent rostering. Stenson’s hurt, is he even going to play? Nice win last week Patrick Reed, but nobody wins two in a row anymore. Did you see Rickie’s back 9 on last Sunday? Grillo is too expensive now? How about Louis Oosthuizen? Yeah right. Phil is going to feed and pack on the ownership this week.
Daniel Berger (13% pOwn%): Berger flopped as 24% GPP owned chalk last week. DK slaps Berger with a $1,200 salary increase this week. Berger has some of the best odds in this salary range and has some of the best early week line movement. The touts haven’t been too interested in Berger, but there is a solid support group here no longer concerned with the shoulder injury.
Lower Tier ($6.5K – $8K):
Russel Knox (17% pOwn%): There are touts that believe TPC Boston is an accuracy course and absolutely love Knox this week. And for you narrative street fans, Knox was recently left off the Europe Ryder Cup team. Darren Clarke chose Pieters, Kaymer and Lee Westwood over Knox. Knox carried a strong 18% GPP ownership last week, but disappointed with a T60. There is also significant buzz about nearby choices Snedeker, Woodland, Thomas, Vegas and Hoffman. Ultimately, we believe Knox holds steady at 17% this week.
Jimmy Walker (4% pOwn%): Wow, it’s crazy how quickly the 2016 PGA Champion has fallen! Walker just has never been that popular. He only garnered 10% GPP ownership in the Wyndham, his first showing after the PGA (but at a big salary increase to $10K). He missed the cut at the Wyndham, then proceeded to be cut last week at the Barclays at just 3.6% GPP ownership ($8.2K salary). Walker has been dropped to $7K salary now. The touts only mention him when discussing fades. Oh well, he got his Major.
Cheap Dart and Scrub Shop ($5.5K – $6.5K):
Rampant “stars and scrubs” roster construction will lead many DFSers down in this range. We believe the chalk will include: Webb Simpson (11% pOwn%), Marc Leishman (13% pOwn%) and Jason Kokrak (14% pOwn%).
Updates will be made Wednesday, Thursday nights and a few hours before roster lock.
Good luck Grinders!
| Golfer | Sal | Odds | Mon pOwn% | Tue pOwn% | Wed pOwn% | Thu pOwn% | % Change Since Open | % Change Since Yesterday | ContR | Act Own% | Var |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Day | $12,500 | 7.335/1 | 25.95% | 28.34% | 28.14% | 29.82% | 3.87% | 1.68% | 4.04 | 26.58% | 3.24% |
| Dustin Johnson | $12,100 | 13.7/1 | 19.31% | 12.77% | 12.33% | 12.14% | -7.17% | -0.19% | 9.70 | 12.48% | -0.34% |
| Jordan Spieth | $11,600 | 12.75/1 | 15.35% | 15.83% | 16.68% | 18.64% | 3.29% | 1.96% | 6.05 | 14.04% | 4.60% |
| Rory McIlroy | $11,100 | 13.95/1 | 12.17% | 13.68% | 14.31% | 12.78% | 0.61% | -1.53% | 9.02 | 12.88% | -0.10% |
| Henrik Stenson | $10,700 | 17.3/1 | 4.17% | 3.91% | 4.47% | 3.75% | -0.42% | -0.72% | 28.69 | 9.65% | -5.90% |
| Adam Scott | $10,400 | 22.5/1 | 16.74% | 23.29% | 25.08% | 25.29% | 8.55% | 0.21% | 4.36 | 22.34% | 2.95% |
| Patrick Reed | $10,200 | 27.5/1 | 15.96% | 15.43% | 14.86% | 14.83% | -1.13% | -0.03% | 6.98 | 13.37% | 1.46% |
| Rickie Fowler | $10,000 | 31.5/1 | 10.75% | 10.66% | 11.55% | 10.46% | -0.29% | -1.09% | 10.16 | 15.75% | -5.29% |
| Justin Rose | $9,700 | 38/1 | 10.84% | 9.78% | 9.54% | 9.50% | -1.34% | -0.04% | 10.76 | 8.01% | 1.49% |
| Sergio Garcia | $9,500 | 37/1 | 17.32% | 16.94% | 17.36% | 17.16% | -0.16% | -0.20% | 5.88 | 15.08% | 2.08% |
| Phil Mickelson | $9,300 | 40/1 | 16.38% | 19.45% | 19.73% | 19.85% | 3.47% | 0.12% | 5.28 | 14.94% | 4.91% |
| Louis Oosthuizen | $9,100 | 74/1 | 3.09% | 2.88% | 2.80% | 2.87% | -0.22% | 0.07% | 27.03 | 5.44% | -2.57% |
| Emiliano Grillo | $9,000 | 49/1 | 14.91% | 15.74% | 15.90% | 15.60% | 0.69% | -0.30% | 6.03 | 16.95% | -1.35% |
| Bubba Watson | $8,900 | 47/1 | 16.33% | 16.12% | 16.03% | 16.84% | 0.51% | 0.81% | 5.83 | 18.38% | -1.54% |
| Jim Furyk | $8,800 | 77/1 | 10.36% | 10.72% | 9.35% | 8.45% | -1.91% | -0.90% | 9.06 | 11.77% | -3.32% |
| Brooks Koepka | $8,700 | 50/1 | 15.10% | 14.36% | 12.81% | 12.35% | -2.75% | -0.46% | 7.84 | 11.44% | 0.91% |
| Hideki Matsuyama | $8,600 | 44/1 | 10.97% | 10.40% | 10.64% | 11.22% | 0.25% | 0.58% | 8.87 | 13.05% | -1.83% |
| Billy Horschel | $8,500 | 68/1 | 9.15% | 9.43% | 9.77% | 9.10% | -0.05% | -0.67% | 9.31 | 9.89% | -0.79% |
| Matt Kuchar | $8,400 | 52/1 | 13.28% | 12.48% | 13.92% | 14.75% | 1.47% | 0.83% | 6.47 | 17.95% | -3.20% |
| Charl Schwartzel | $8,300 | 87/1 | 5.76% | 5.12% | 5.79% | 7.14% | 1.38% | 1.35% | 12.99 | 9.08% | -1.94% |
| Branden Grace | $8,200 | 91/1 | 9.31% | 8.95% | 7.72% | 6.98% | -2.33% | -0.74% | 9.65 | 7.17% | -0.19% |
| Daniel Berger | $8,100 | 78/1 | 15.25% | 13.64% | 12.26% | 12.33% | -2.92% | 0.07% | 7.09 | 6.48% | 5.85% |
| Zach Johnson | $8,000 | 99/1 | 6.97% | 7.20% | 8.51% | 9.21% | 2.24% | 0.70% | 7.98 | 8.23% | 0.98% |
| Ryan Moore | $7,900 | 109/1 | 11.38% | 10.74% | 10.25% | 9.47% | -1.91% | -0.78% | 9.37 | 9.65% | -0.18% |
| Paul Casey | $7,900 | 96/1 | 6.08% | 6.83% | 6.74% | 7.26% | 1.18% | 0.52% | 10.97 | 6.45% | 0.81% |
| Sean O’Hair | $7,800 | 97/1 | 4.30% | 3.64% | 3.28% | 3.08% | -1.22% | -0.20% | 24.53 | 6.28% | -3.20% |
| Jason Dufner | $7,800 | 114/1 | 7.48% | 7.16% | 5.90% | 5.23% | -2.25% | -0.67% | 16.45 | 9.06% | -3.83% |
| Brandt Snedeker | $7,700 | 61/1 | 21.14% | 19.62% | 18.74% | 17.62% | -3.52% | -1.12% | 5.11 | 11.74% | 5.88% |
| Gary Woodland | $7,700 | 67/1 | 14.91% | 14.10% | 15.66% | 16.87% | 1.96% | 1.21% | 5.42 | 10.51% | 6.36% |
| Kevin Na | $7,600 | Off | 8.18% | 8.41% | 1.34% | 0.35% | -7.83% | -0.99% | 234.24 | 2.79% | -2.44% |
| Justin Thomas | $7,600 | 72/1 | 11.05% | 10.82% | 16.67% | 17.37% | 6.32% | 0.70% | 4.11 | 12.08% | 5.29% |
| Russell Knox | $7,500 | 96/1 | 16.76% | 17.14% | 16.48% | 16.52% | -0.24% | 0.04% | 4.88 | 12.09% | 4.43% |
| Johnson Wagner | $7,500 | 382/1 | 2.83% | 2.01% | 1.26% | 0.94% | -1.89% | -0.32% | 58.68 | 2.66% | -1.72% |
| Kevin Kisner | $7,400 | 139/1 | 12.74% | 12.55% | 9.34% | 8.25% | -4.49% | -1.09% | 9.53 | 8.11% | 0.14% |
| Jhonattan Vegas | $7,400 | 233/1 | 3.85% | 4.66% | 4.33% | 4.04% | 0.19% | -0.29% | 17.94 | 6.86% | -2.82% |
| Si-Woo Kim | $7,300 | 183/1 | 3.34% | 3.27% | 3.10% | 2.83% | -0.51% | -0.27% | 23.09 | 2.74% | 0.09% |
| Charley Hoffman | $7,300 | 71/1 | 7.49% | 8.73% | 10.42% | 10.72% | 3.23% | 0.30% | 5.91 | 11.25% | -0.53% |
| John Senden | $7,200 | 341/1 | 0.17% | 0.47% | 0.73% | 0.71% | 0.54% | -0.02% | 64.76 | 3.10% | -2.39% |
| Jamie Lovemark | $7,200 | 337/1 | 1.68% | 1.51% | 1.03% | 0.91% | -0.77% | -0.12% | 58.37 | 2.99% | -2.08% |
| Jerry Kelly | $7,100 | 564/1 | 0.43% | 0.38% | 0.35% | 0.31% | -0.12% | -0.04% | 115.45 | 2.39% | -2.08% |
| Kevin Chappell | $7,100 | 131/1 | 5.15% | 4.87% | 4.61% | 5.25% | 0.10% | 0.64% | 13.03 | 7.67% | -2.42% |
| Steve Stricker | $7,000 | 170/1 | 4.20% | 3.89% | 3.52% | 3.26% | -0.94% | -0.26% | 17.86 | 7.40% | -4.14% |
| Jimmy Walker | $7,000 | 137/1 | 3.94% | 4.15% | 3.86% | 3.58% | -0.36% | -0.28% | 19.68 | 5.43% | -1.85% |
| Russell Henley | $6,900 | 214/1 | 1.47% | 1.44% | 1.38% | 1.35% | -0.12% | -0.03% | 45.39 | 2.38% | -1.03% |
| Roberto Castro | $6,900 | 423/1 | 0.63% | 0.72% | 0.70% | 0.68% | 0.05% | -0.02% | 64.62 | 1.78% | -1.10% |
| Kyle Reifers | $6,800 | 644/1 | 0.26% | 0.22% | 0.23% | 0.21% | -0.05% | -0.02% | 159.50 | 0.80% | -0.59% |
| William McGirt | $6,800 | 262/1 | 5.49% | 5.32% | 4.76% | 3.87% | -1.62% | -0.89% | 19.26 | 6.98% | -3.11% |
| Ryan Palmer | $6,700 | 176/1 | 9.61% | 9.86% | 13.24% | 14.13% | 4.52% | 0.89% | 5.90 | 11.54% | 2.59% |
| Bill Haas | $6,700 | 178/1 | 6.65% | 6.54% | 5.97% | 5.66% | -0.99% | -0.31% | 9.56 | 5.89% | -0.23% |
| Brendan Steele | $6,600 | 167/1 | 3.22% | 3.68% | 3.50% | 4.69% | 1.47% | 1.19% | 13.72 | 4.88% | -0.19% |
| Harris English | $6,600 | 279/1 | 4.30% | 4.28% | 4.33% | 4.11% | -0.19% | -0.22% | 11.68 | 2.89% | 1.22% |
| J.B. Holmes | $6,500 | 151/1 | 7.67% | 8.78% | 8.85% | 9.24% | 1.57% | 0.39% | 7.18 | 6.66% | 2.58% |
| Tony Finau | $6,500 | 145/1 | 5.63% | 6.20% | 6.72% | 8.44% | 2.81% | 1.72% | 6.66 | 9.61% | -1.17% |
| Chez Reavie | $6,400 | 427/1 | 0.74% | 0.95% | 0.93% | 0.88% | 0.14% | -0.05% | 56.89 | 2.68% | -1.80% |
| Martin Laird | $6,400 | 298/1 | 4.74% | 4.04% | 3.61% | 2.62% | -2.12% | -0.99% | 19.50 | 2.60% | 0.02% |
| Chris Kirk | $6,400 | 281/1 | 1.30% | 1.36% | 1.34% | 1.30% | 0.00% | -0.04% | 28.31 | 3.02% | -1.72% |
| David Lingmerth | $6,300 | 298/1 | 2.02% | 1.93% | 1.96% | 1.94% | -0.08% | -0.02% | 23.18 | 2.68% | -0.74% |
| Graeme McDowell | $6,300 | 471/1 | 1.66% | 1.42% | 1.08% | 0.83% | -0.83% | -0.25% | 38.51 | 1.90% | -1.07% |
| Aaron Baddeley | $6,300 | 334/1 | 1.90% | 1.91% | 1.94% | 1.85% | -0.05% | -0.09% | 16.45 | 1.21% | 0.64% |
| Scott Piercy | $6,200 | 231/1 | 14.61% | 9.47% | 8.81% | 6.79% | -7.82% | -2.02% | 8.72 | 8.54% | -1.75% |
| Fredrik Jacobson | $6,200 | 826/1 | 0.49% | 0.31% | 0.32% | 0.28% | -0.21% | -0.04% | 0.46% | -0.18% | |
| Derek Fathauer | $6,200 | 946/1 | 0.21% | 0.19% | 0.17% | 0.16% | -0.05% | -0.01% | 0.26% | -0.10% | |
| Smylie Kaufman | $6,200 | 631/1 | 0.96% | 0.92% | 1.19% | 1.22% | 0.26% | 0.03% | 0.99% | 0.23% | |
| Webb Simpson | $6,100 | 219/1 | 8.94% | 11.35% | 12.03% | 13.98% | 5.04% | 1.95% | 4.97 | 11.99% | 1.99% |
| Vaughn Taylor | $6,100 | 749/1 | 0.18% | 0.20% | 0.21% | 0.26% | 0.08% | 0.05% | 0.16% | 0.10% | |
| Luke Donald | $6,100 | 250/1 | 16.82% | 8.39% | 7.23% | 4.37% | -12.45% | -2.86% | 9.12 | 3.74% | 0.63% |
| Scott Brown | $6,100 | 624/1 | 0.61% | 0.59% | 0.57% | 0.54% | -0.07% | -0.03% | 0.69% | -0.15% | |
| Daniel Summerhays | $6,000 | 233/1 | 3.27% | 4.76% | 5.37% | 5.48% | 2.21% | 0.11% | 7.83 | 5.48% | 0.00% |
| Patrick Rodgers | $6,000 | 303/1 | 1.24% | 1.18% | 1.38% | 1.44% | 0.20% | 0.06% | 34.06 | 1.79% | -0.35% |
| Jim Herman | $6,000 | 706/1 | 0.35% | 0.37% | 0.38% | 0.37% | 0.02% | -0.01% | 0.30% | 0.07% | |
| Alex Cejka | $6,000 | Off | 0.67% | 1.26% | 0.40% | 0.15% | -0.52% | -0.25% | 415.26 | 0.43% | -0.28% |
| David Hearn | $6,000 | 598/1 | 0.48% | 0.41% | 0.40% | 0.34% | -0.14% | -0.06% | 91.76 | 0.28% | 0.06% |
| Patton Kizzire | $5,900 | 620/1 | 0.88% | 0.84% | 0.83% | 0.81% | -0.07% | -0.02% | 1.27% | -0.46% | |
| Billy Hurley | $5,900 | 946/1 | 0.51% | 0.43% | 0.37% | 0.21% | -0.30% | -0.16% | 0.42% | -0.21% | |
| Kevin Streelman | $5,900 | 353/1 | 1.56% | 0.61% | 0.64% | 0.71% | -0.85% | 0.07% | 49.33 | 1.09% | -0.38% |
| Danny Lee | $5,900 | 303/1 | 6.03% | 7.31% | 6.90% | 7.14% | 1.11% | 0.24% | 5.44 | 3.32% | 3.82% |
| Spencer Levin | $5,900 | 917/1 | 0.29% | 0.23% | 0.19% | 0.17% | -0.12% | -0.02% | 0.21% | -0.04% | |
| Marc Leishman | $5,800 | 295/1 | 3.13% | 13.66% | 13.15% | 16.47% | 13.34% | 3.32% | 3.16 | 6.37% | 10.10% |
| Harold Varner | $5,800 | 576/1 | 0.42% | 0.39% | 1.04% | 0.49% | 0.07% | -0.55% | 1.46% | -0.97% | |
| K.J. Choi | $5,800 | 898/1 | 0.50% | 0.37% | 0.34% | 0.21% | -0.29% | -0.13% | 0.52% | -0.31% | |
| Bryce Molder | $5,800 | 787/1 | 0.19% | 0.20% | 0.79% | 0.76% | 0.57% | -0.03% | 0.53% | 0.23% | |
| Ricky Barnes | $5,800 | 600/1 | 1.75% | 1.50% | 1.21% | 1.09% | -0.66% | -0.12% | 34.70 | 1.88% | -0.79% |
| John Huh | $5,700 | 946/1 | 0.24% | 0.22% | 0.19% | 0.16% | -0.08% | -0.03% | 0.57% | -0.41% | |
| Jason Kokrak | $5,700 | 173/1 | 14.67% | 14.62% | 17.44% | 20.26% | 5.59% | 2.82% | 2.97 | 5.86% | 14.40% |
| Charles Howell | $5,700 | 461/1 | 2.34% | 2.48% | 2.71% | 2.18% | -0.16% | -0.53% | 21.56 | 5.21% | -3.03% |
| Chad Campbell | $5,700 | 677/1 | 0.59% | 0.51% | 0.48% | 0.41% | -0.18% | -0.07% | 79.83 | 0.71% | -0.30% |
| Jason Bohn | $5,700 | 946/1 | 0.55% | 0.46% | 0.42% | 0.30% | -0.25% | -0.12% | 0.27% | 0.03% | |
| Brian Harman | $5,600 | 509/1 | 1.48% | 1.29% | 0.87% | 0.81% | -0.67% | -0.06% | 42.30 | 1.19% | -0.38% |
| Brian Stuard | $5,600 | 730/1 | 0.27% | 0.24% | 0.22% | 0.18% | -0.09% | -0.04% | 0.45% | -0.27% | |
| Colt Knost | $5,600 | 596/1 | 0.44% | 0.38% | 0.39% | 0.36% | -0.08% | -0.03% | 0.92% | -0.56% | |
| Fabian Gomez | $5,600 | 903/1 | 0.23% | 0.18% | 0.16% | 0.13% | -0.10% | -0.03% | 0.55% | -0.42% | |
| Vijay Singh | $5,600 | 778/1 | 0.28% | 0.19% | 0.18% | 0.17% | -0.11% | -0.01% | 1.53% | -1.36% | |
| Ben Martin | $5,600 | 452/1 | 3.43% | 1.46% | 1.13% | 0.45% | -2.98% | -0.68% | 90.86 | 1.36% | -0.91% |
| Hudson Swafford | $5,500 | 358/1 | 4.29% | 6.80% | 7.44% | 9.67% | 5.38% | 2.23% | 5.91 | 8.79% | 0.88% |
| Sung Kang | $5,500 | 572/1 | 2.98% | 1.47% | 1.42% | 1.03% | -1.95% | -0.39% | 2.94% | -1.91% | |
| James Hahn | $5,500 | 869/1 | 0.31% | 0.30% | 0.29% | 0.26% | -0.05% | -0.03% | 0.47% | -0.21% | |
| Jon Curran | $5,500 | 655/1 | 0.47% | 0.44% | 0.52% | 0.53% | 0.06% | 0.01% | 1.14% | -0.61% | |
| Adam Hadwin | $5,500 | 401/1 | 2.46% | 2.33% | 3.57% | 1.60% | -0.86% | -1.97% | 26.19 | 3.13% | -1.53% |
| Tyrone Van-Aswegen | $5,500 | 898/1 | 1.07% | 0.97% | 0.95% | 0.63% | -0.44% | -0.32% | 1.73% | -1.10% |