PGA Projected Ownership: Rio 2016
Russell Knox (13.15 pOwn%, 17.18% actual) won the Travelers Championship trophy, but it was Jim Furyk’s (6.15 pOwn%, 5.7% actual) record-breaking 58 on Sunday that stole the show.
The chalk wasn’t as brutal last week, as only Branden Grace (24.65 pOwn%, 19.68% actual) missed the cut. You probably didn’t win much money if you played the chalk that made the cut: Bubba Watson (37.48 pOwn%, 24.38% actual-AIRMAIL OF THE WEEK), Tyrrell Hatton (27.72 pOwn%, 26.18% actual), Brooks Koepka (24.11 pOwn%, 19.41% actual), Matt Kuchar (22.98 pOwn%, 22.76% actual) and Jon Rahm (22.89 pOwn%, 26.81% actual).
There was a Jerry Kelly (1.44 pOwn%, 1.43% actual) leaderboard sighting and he actually finished strong for a 2nd place finish. We doubt this will significantly improve Kelly’s pOwn% values in upcoming tourneys.
Editor’s Note: In the near future, subscribers to DraftKings PGA Premium content will have access to all current week and historical pOwn% data. Updates will be made throughout the week due to injury news, tout activity, odds/line movement, weather/tee-times, etc. But for this week, focusing on the $3 DK Birdie, everyone has access to everything. Enjoy!
This Week’s Tweaks:
DraftKings is kind of forcing us to fade the John Deere this week. However, the Rio Olympics venue should be a lot of fun. There are a lot of stars in the field, many of which have placed heavy emphasis on their Olympic participation. Heck, Jaco van Zyl withdrew from two Majors to prepare for the Olympics! Patrick Reed has been a walking American Flag for the last six months. The Olympic Golf Course is brand new that looks short, very forgiving and drawing comparisons to links-style courses.
We keep hearing about the giant rodents, snakes and three-toed sloths. But quick Google searches for PGA players with known cases of ophidiophobia, musophobia or R.O.U.S.-phobia (Rodents Of Unusual Size) comes up with a big nada. So there goes a good idea for an edge this week.
The no-cut rule could cause more ‘stars and scrubs’ action. It’s also a small field of just sixty golfers, many of which are not that recognizable to casual DFs players. Seamus Power anyone? How about Mohammad Siddikur Rahman? Weather could be a factor. Rain is in the forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday. How the new course handles the rain is anyone’s guess. Extended forecasts show the rain dissipating by Thursday late morning. Those with early Thursday tee times could be at a disadvantage?
We will be focusing on the DK $1M ($20 entry) INTL Golf Championship with a juicy $100K first prize this week.
Upper Tier Curiosities ($10K +):
Sergio Garcia (25% pOwn% and rising): You say this new Olympic course is Links-style? And this isn’t a Major, right? Sergio is my guy! Sergio carried huge ownership support at The Open (30%) and the PGA Championship (31%). The PGA cut will scare some off Sergio, but the small field featuring the aforementioned Seamus Power and Siddikur Rahman may scare folks right back on the Spaniard. Early week line movement is steady and only Henrik Stenson has stronger Vegas support. The $11.9K price tag is steep, but Sergio should be leading the chalk this week (again).
Rickie Fowler (9% pOwn%): Rickie has better odds than his American teammates and had a less hectic travel week leading up to Rio by not participating in the Travelers. It’s that terrible recent form that could keep his ownership in single digits. The T33 PGA finish at 10% ownership wrapped up a terrible Major season for Rickie. Most DFS players will opt for his cheaper American teammates and resurgent Justin Rose is so much more enticing at $600 more. Rickie has been a failed contrarian play for most of the year and many are just done trying. Rickie has now entered the dreaded ‘wait and see approach’ stage of DFS ownership decline.
Middle Tier Intrigues ($8K – $10K):
Emiliano Grillo (21% pOwn% and rising): Grillo disappointed a huge (28%) ownership in the Canadian Open but bounced back nicely at the PGA with a T13 at a scant 5.4% ownership. We expect his ownership to swing aggressively back up due to his perceived upside and weaker recent formed DK salary neighbors (Willett, An, Rafa C-B, Jaidee). Line movement is steady and early tout buzz is good.
Jhonattan Vegas (24% pOwn% and rising): The Canadian Open champ kept it going with a respectable T22 finish at the PGA. There is no one near his DK salary range with this kind of recent form. The course fit angle could be the only concern Johnny Vegas. Soren Kjeldsen may be a better fit? Soren is making cuts, but has not cracked the Top 30 in the last two tourneys. Kiradech Aphibarnrat might be the best at scaring off the capybaras, but last time we checked, DK is not awarding points for this skill set.
Lower Tier Delights ($6.5K – $8K):
David Hearn (20% pOwn%): DK placed both Canadians at $7.4K. That seems kind of cheap for this field, but they did both miss the cut in their own Canadian Open. The opening odds are great for the Canadians in this DK salary range, but it is Hearn that will feel most trustworthy having a T12 finish in the somewhat distant past (Quicken Loans). Graham DeLaet has been fighting injuries, chipping yips and even offed his popular beard resulting in a closely shaved ownership %.
Nicolas Colsaerts (23% pOwn%): Colsaerts is emerging as a top Rio value play. Colsaerts has normally lagged behind EURO buddy Gregory Bourdy in popularity, but we expect Colsaerts’ ownership to finally eclipse Bourdy’s. Both Bourdy and Colsaerts have little DFS roster competition down here (except for Cejka) and are further aided by the Olympic course being compared to Links-style play. The forgiving layout and wet conditions are even better for the EURO bomber Colsaerts.
Cheap Dart and Scrub Shop ($5.5K – $6.5K):
Fabian Gomez (14% pOwn%): It’s pretty rough down here below $6.5K. There is some talk about Ryan Fox, Adilson Da-Silva and Roope Kakko. Most will recognize Fabian Gomez and will be thankful for some decent and hopefully applicable recent statistics (even if they’re bad). One good thing: all the cheap options will make the cut as long as they survive the boa constrictors and three-toed sloths hanging around holes 2,3,5 and 9.
We’ll be making pOwn% updates later on Tuesday and Wednesday. Also, look for one last update a few hours before roster lock.
Good luck this week Grinders!
| Golfer | Sal | Odds | MonpOwn% | TuepOwn% | WedpOwn% | ThupOwn% | % ChangeSince Open | % ChangeSince Yesterday | ContR | Act Own% | Var |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henrik Stenson | $12,400 | 6.32/1 | 21.51% | 21.30% | 20.79% | 20.74% | -0.77% | -0.05% | 5.29 | 23.29% | -2.55% |
| Sergio Garcia | $11,900 | 11/1 | 24.96% | 24.03% | 24.25% | 24.78% | -0.18% | 0.53% | 4.33 | 12.39% | 12.39% |
| Justin Rose | $11,500 | 13.4/1 | 15.32% | 16.30% | 15.75% | 14.83% | -0.49% | -0.92% | 7.08 | 8.62% | 6.21% |
| Rickie Fowler | $10,900 | 14.8/1 | 9.14% | 9.25% | 10.43% | 11.61% | 2.47% | 1.18% | 8.84 | 15.95% | -4.34% |
| Patrick Reed | $10,700 | 18.1/1 | 17.30% | 18.76% | 18.10% | 17.32% | 0.02% | -0.78% | 5.66 | 21.55% | -4.23% |
| Bubba Watson | $10,500 | 17.1/1 | 20.15% | 19.64% | 17.83% | 16.75% | -3.40% | -1.08% | 5.99 | 17.81% | -1.06% |
| Martin Kaymer | $10,300 | 17.6/1 | 10.48% | 12.34% | 14.08% | 16.94% | 6.46% | 2.86% | 5.64 | 19.16% | -2.22% |
| Matt Kuchar | $10,100 | 21/1 | 25.60% | 24.19% | 24.88% | 24.07% | -1.53% | -0.81% | 4.02 | 16.58% | 7.49% |
| Danny Willett | $9,900 | 38/1 | 10.74% | 10.52% | 9.93% | 9.21% | -1.53% | -0.72% | 10.10 | 8.61% | 0.60% |
| Emiliano Grillo | $9,600 | 28/1 | 21.40% | 20.81% | 21.92% | 22.47% | 1.07% | 0.55% | 4.19 | 17.89% | 4.58% |
| Rafael Cabrera-Bello | $9,200 | 36/1 | 18.12% | 18.55% | 17.07% | 15.51% | -2.61% | -1.56% | 5.92 | 21.13% | -5.62% |
| Byeong-Hun An | $8,800 | 44/1 | 7.09% | 8.27% | 8.45% | 8.36% | 1.27% | -0.09% | 10.83 | 12.83% | -4.47% |
| Thongchai Jaidee | $8,600 | 71/1 | 3.31% | 4.36% | 5.09% | 2.82% | -0.49% | -2.27% | 30.78 | 4.24% | -1.42% |
| Soren Kjeldsen | $8,500 | 57/1 | 5.62% | 5.94% | 6.37% | 6.24% | 0.62% | -0.13% | 14.31 | 12.93% | -6.69% |
| Danny Lee | $8,400 | 52/1 | 5.98% | 7.14% | 8.32% | 7.92% | 1.94% | -0.40% | 10.65 | 18.20% | -10.28% |
| Jhonattan Vegas | $8,300 | 42/1 | 24.61% | 22.37% | 20.61% | 22.13% | -2.48% | 1.52% | 3.70 | 27.92% | -5.79% |
| Kiradech Aphibarnrat | $8,200 | 105/1 | 5.45% | 5.20% | 4.10% | 3.50% | -1.95% | -0.60% | 19.65 | 3.25% | 0.25% |
| Thomas Pieters | $8,100 | 81/1 | 9.83% | 8.38% | 8.48% | 7.15% | -2.68% | -1.33% | 11.62 | 5.74% | 1.41% |
| David Lingmerth | $8,000 | 52/1 | 11.33% | 11.82% | 10.71% | 10.29% | -1.04% | -0.42% | 8.56 | 14.12% | -3.83% |
| Jaco Van Zyl | $7,900 | 105/1 | 1.42% | 1.66% | 2.37% | 2.34% | 0.92% | -0.03% | 27.51 | 4.27% | -1.93% |
| Bernd Wiesberger | $7,800 | 90/1 | 6.70% | 6.63% | 6.52% | 6.03% | -0.67% | -0.49% | 12.75 | 6.92% | -0.89% |
| Scott Hend | $7,800 | 48/1 | 5.61% | 5.85% | 7.68% | 13.84% | 8.23% | 6.16% | 5.07 | 8.42% | 5.42% |
| Padraig Harrington | $7,700 | 34/1 | 21.85% | 23.50% | 23.85% | 25.72% | 3.87% | 1.87% | 3.33 | 18.47% | 7.25% |
| Anirban Lahiri | $7,700 | 95/1 | 7.58% | 7.43% | 7.74% | 7.61% | 0.03% | -0.13% | 9.42 | 7.44% | 0.17% |
| Jeunghun Wang | $7,500 | 181/1 | 1.73% | 1.67% | 1.67% | 1.66% | -0.07% | -0.01% | 37.03 | 1.43% | 0.23% |
| Joost Luiten | $7,500 | 71/1 | 17.50% | 18.02% | 17.69% | 18.45% | 0.95% | 0.76% | 4.37 | 24.04% | -5.59% |
| Graham DeLaet | $7,400 | 95/1 | 13.68% | 15.31% | 15.54% | 15.73% | 2.05% | 0.19% | 4.97 | 9.71% | 6.02% |
| David Hearn | $7,400 | 114/1 | 20.24% | 18.28% | 17.26% | 17.66% | -2.58% | 0.40% | 4.28 | 8.68% | 8.98% |
| Thorbjorn Olesen | $7,300 | 133/1 | 9.26% | 8.44% | 8.40% | 8.67% | -0.59% | 0.27% | 6.92 | 5.66% | 3.01% |
| Felipe Aguilar | $7,300 | 247/1 | 4.74% | 4.56% | 2.31% | 2.04% | -2.70% | -0.27% | 23.69 | 2.14% | -0.10% |
| Matteo Manassero | $7,200 | 76/1 | 11.57% | 9.84% | 17.62% | 15.76% | 4.19% | -1.86% | 4.18 | 6.82% | 8.94% |
| Yuta Ikeda | $7,200 | 323/1 | 5.94% | 2.40% | 1.97% | 1.93% | -4.01% | -0.04% | 24.28 | 2.55% | -0.62% |
| Mikko Ilonen | $7,100 | 190/1 | 8.17% | 6.25% | 4.88% | 4.15% | -4.02% | -0.73% | 16.22 | 5.49% | -1.34% |
| Wu Ashun | $7,100 | 285/1 | 3.95% | 3.91% | 3.37% | 3.34% | -0.61% | -0.03% | 15.34 | 1.51% | 1.83% |
| Gregory Bourdy | $7,000 | 90/1 | 21.61% | 22.11% | 22.55% | 22.14% | 0.53% | -0.41% | 3.30 | 34.02% | -11.88% |
| Nino Bertasio | $7,000 | 532/1 | 1.54% | 1.32% | 1.24% | 1.56% | 0.02% | 0.32% | 27.23 | 4.01% | -2.45% |
| Nicolas Colsaerts | $6,900 | 67/1 | 23.45% | 24.23% | 24.68% | 24.55% | 1.10% | -0.13% | 3.23 | 32.17% | -7.62% |
| Brandon Stone | $6,900 | 228/1 | 6.45% | 4.97% | 4.81% | 4.70% | -1.75% | -0.11% | 11.21 | 8.31% | -3.61% |
| Fabrizio Zanotti | $6,800 | 238/1 | 3.83% | 3.45% | 3.65% | 3.62% | -0.21% | -0.03% | 14.96 | 7.72% | -4.10% |
| Hao-Tong Li | $6,800 | 266/1 | 1.29% | 2.10% | 2.63% | 2.78% | 1.49% | 0.15% | 14.75 | 1.56% | 1.22% |
| Ricardo Gouveia | $6,700 | 323/1 | 3.03% | 2.56% | 2.61% | 2.62% | -0.41% | 0.01% | 19.00 | 6.19% | -3.57% |
| Marcus Fraser | $6,700 | 200/1 | 6.59% | 7.51% | 7.83% | 7.71% | 1.12% | -0.12% | 5.89 | 3.34% | 4.37% |
| Cheng-Tsung Pan | $6,600 | 152/1 | 13.04% | 10.47% | 10.29% | 11.34% | -1.70% | 1.05% | 5.16 | 11.67% | -0.33% |
| Alex Cejka | $6,600 | 95/1 | 23.67% | 24.73% | 24.10% | 25.38% | 1.71% | 1.28% | 2.93 | 40.69% | -15.31% |
| Jose-Filipe Lima | $6,500 | 675/1 | 1.24% | 1.19% | 1.14% | 1.07% | -0.17% | -0.07% | 31.51 | 0.44% | 0.63% |
| Julien Quesne | $6,500 | 266/1 | 11.41% | 11.35% | 9.72% | 6.80% | -4.61% | -2.92% | 8.39 | 10.72% | -3.92% |
| Ryan Fox | $6,400 | 95/1 | 12.15% | 15.62% | 16.23% | 16.63% | 4.48% | 0.40% | 3.78 | 3.66% | 12.97% |
| Seamus Power | $6,400 | 494/1 | 1.58% | 1.94% | 1.86% | 1.86% | 0.28% | 0.00% | 21.27 | 2.16% | -0.30% |
| Espen Kofstad | $6,300 | 760/1 | 3.32% | 2.86% | 2.11% | 2.11% | -1.21% | 0.00% | 17.36 | 0.33% | 1.78% |
| Fabian Gomez | $6,300 | 209/1 | 14.52% | 15.22% | 15.76% | 16.49% | 1.97% | 0.73% | 3.37 | 10.16% | 6.33% |
| Danny Chia | $6,200 | 950/1 | 2.55% | 1.01% | 0.98% | 0.95% | -1.60% | -0.03% | 0.36% | 0.59% | |
| Gavin Green | $6,200 | 760/1 | 1.81% | 2.89% | 3.51% | 3.76% | 1.95% | 0.25% | 8.19 | 0.47% | 3.29% |
| Miguel Tabuena | $6,100 | 675/1 | 6.47% | 6.10% | 4.73% | 4.62% | -1.85% | -0.11% | 6.98 | 3.28% | 1.34% |
| Adilson Da Silva | $6,100 | 570/1 | 9.75% | 7.43% | 5.25% | 5.25% | -4.50% | 0.00% | 8.37 | 4.23% | 1.02% |
| Wen-tang Lin | $6,000 | 228/1 | 1.44% | 9.57% | 7.82% | 10.83% | 9.39% | 3.01% | 3.25 | 4.92% | 5.91% |
| Rodolfo Cazaubon | $5,900 | 950/1 | 2.20% | 1.27% | 1.25% | 1.20% | -1.00% | -0.05% | 3.77% | -2.57% | |
| Siddikur Rahman | $5,800 | 950/1 | 1.67% | 1.67% | 1.54% | 1.51% | -0.16% | -0.03% | 1.57% | -0.06% | |
| Shingo Katayama | $5,700 | 637/1 | 7.59% | 6.51% | 5.68% | 1.48% | -6.11% | -4.20% | 25.74 | 3.04% | -1.56% |
| Roope Kakko | $5,600 | 418/1 | 7.24% | 5.85% | 9.19% | 8.54% | 1.30% | -0.65% | 2.33% | 6.21% | |
| Shiv Chawrasia | $5,500 | 675/1 | 2.68% | 3.15% | 2.81% | 2.93% | 0.25% | 0.12% | 2.33% | 0.60% |
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