PGA Projected Ownership: SBS Tournament of Champions
Happy New Year everyone! DFS golf is back and I wish everyone the best of luck this upcoming 2017 season.
If this is your first visit, here are a few pointers to getting the most out of this weekly article. Our primary goal is to accurately project ownership in selected PGA GPP tourneys. Our approach has nothing to do with projecting the actual winner. We focus on actual GPP players and their varying approaches to constructing rosters.
If you’re in a hurry, just scroll down and view/capture the complete projected ownership data table. If you are wondering how we generated the values, we offer commentary in the following format:
• Quick review of last week’s GPP tourney winner(s) and pOwn% hits and misses
• Tweaks to the pOwn% model. The golf DFS landscape is always evolving, so we are constantly tweaking our pOwn% model. Each week, we highlight the tweaks made for the upcoming PGA event.
• Brief commentary of selected golfers in different pricing tiers, usually focusing on contrarian plays and tough-to-read situations.
Our process begins on Monday and we update the pOwn values daily, so be sure to revisit before roster lock. We also promptly provide actual ownership data after roster lock for accuracy review.
Okay, let’s take a look at the 2017 SBS Tournament of Champions.
Editor’s Note: In the near future, subscribers to DraftKings PGA Premium content will have access to all current week and historical pOwn% data. Updates will be made throughout the week due to injury news, tout activity, odds/line movement, weather/tee-times, etc. But for this week, focusing on the $3 DK Birdie, everyone has access to everything. Enjoy!
This Week’s Tweaks:
I’m excited about DFS golf’s return, even if the SBS player field and the GPP prize pools are small. Even though the NFL season is almost done, I don’t expect a lot of new DFS golf involvement this week so the higher concentration of sharper DFS golf players remains. The DK pricing is very soft, mainly because it was released so early before the higher profile no-shows like Rory, Henrik, and Sergio decided to bail. We’ve heard the murmurs before, but we might actually see some significant LMOTT (Leave Money On The Table) plays this week. Several touts recommended the LMOTT strategy this week and after the Hero World Challenge (over fifty people tied for first place in DK GPPs) it sounds like a good idea to try new ways to differentiate. LMOTT suggestions range from $500 up to $2000. I doubt many will leave $2K on the table, but we are kicking down our projected average salary spend this week.
Due to the break, recent form will be downgraded this week. Course history will pick up some of the weight in addition to perceived course fit (bombers). Stars and scrubs roster construction seems more likely than a balanced approach this week. We have a weird anomaly in the DK $10K to $8.3K price range due to four golfers (Rory, Adam Scott, Henrik and Charl) not making the trip. So guys like Patrick Reed, Bubba and Justin Thomas may abnormally pick up more ownership.
Weather looks fine, some wind. But the course is wet, so less roll which is more fuel for the pro-bomber fire. It’s a no-cut event, so you adrenaline junkies that are going to miss the Friday cut sweats may need to kick up your exposure to WD possibilities like Si-Woo Kim and Jason Day.
We will be focusing on the DK $150K ($3 entry) Birdie this week.
Upper Tier ($10.6K +):
Hideki Matsuyama (37% pOwn%): The Hero World Challenge gave us a good look at Hideki Vs. Spieth Vs. DJ. Going in, Hideki was on a recent form rush and ended up being the line movement stud. The DJ train started losing passengers and Spieth gobbled up most of them ending at 50% GPP ownership. Hideki won THC with Spieth at T6 and DJ at T3. Now leading into the SBS, both Spieth and Hideki get big salary hikes, DJ remains the same $11.2K. But this time, Hideki is not only the line movement stud, he is also the best odds-to-win according to Vegas and the tout buzz king. Hideki’s injury concerns seem to be all gone and he is a game log addict’s dream. Spieth’s ownership should remain strong, but Hideki continues to eat away at DJ, Day, etc.
Jason Day (16% pOwn%): Oh Day. All the talent, the best all-around game around. And of course, all the injuries, the drama. Throw in a long break and you get the lowest owned GPP Jason Day in a while. Vegas is still showing some respect, but the DFS touts are not, and Day’s line movement is starting to turn for the worse. Maybe he’s got a runny nose. Who knows? But if he’s on….
Middle Tier ($9.5K – $7.7K):
Patrick Reed (18% pOwn%): His salary neighbors, Rory and Adam Scott, are no-shows. Patrick Reed and Bubba Watson are the only options between $10.6K and $9.2K. Reed scores well in course history, finishing a distant 2nd to Spieth here last year. But folks are always looking for ways not to roster Reed. Maybe this time they decide to leave $600-800 on the table and take tout favorites like Justin Thomas, Brandt Snedeker or Daniel Berger. If the no-shows were here, Reed would be 12-15%. His ownership will be bloated this week out of necessity, unless you decide to go LMOTT or hard-core Stars and Scrubs.
Jimmy Walker (21% pOwn% and): The overall line movement stud and value play of the week. The touts are warming up to Walker too. Many still remember Ryan Moore’s strong finish to last season and will go there. Russell Knox lurks at just $400 more. Walker has burned a lot of people after the 2016 PGA Championship win, that pain is still there. Using Vegas odds, course history and value analysis, Walker should be higher owned, but DFS players are not robots. They remember the pain.
Lower Tier ($7.6K – $6K):
Branden Grace (34% pOwn%): We believe that stars and scrubs roster construction will be in full force this week, so we need to find some cheap darts at less than $7.5K. Let’s see who we got here, McGirt? Nah. Willett? BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO! We don’t like Willett, hell he didn’t show anyways. Si-Woo probably going to WD. Branden Grace? Branden Grace at $7.5K? Slightly higher than Billy Hurley, Aaron Baddeley or MacKenzie Hughes? This can’t be right, what’s Grace’s odds? 42/1. What the hell? He’s South African, so I can’t do it. But wait, he’s just one hundred fricking dollars more than Pat Perez. And his long hair. Okay, just this roster I’ll use Grace. Maybe the next dozen rosters I’ll use Grace. I’ll one-off Grace on the other rosters. Even contrarian nation will struggle fading Grace this week.
Aaron Baddeley (15% pOwn%): Things look real chalky in the Gribble, Gomez, Vegas, Hoffman range. But sitting right in between that bunch and Branden Grace sits Aaron Baddeley. Salary neighbors Hurley and MacKenzie Hughes will get a little attention. But they and Baddeley should still go mostly overlooked. Touts of course like Baddeley’s putting but still think he’s long enough to hang with the bombers and their perceived advantage at Kapalua Resort.
Updates to pOwn% values (SEE BELOW) will be made Wednesday evening and a few hours before roster lock.
Good luck this week everyone.
| Golfer | Sal | Odds | Mon pOwn% | Tue pOwn% | Wed pOwn% | Thu pOwn% | % Change Since Open | % Change Since Yesterday | ContR | Act Own% | Var |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Spieth | $11,500 | 5.66/1 | 33.50% | 37.18% | 41.26% | 43.29% | 9.79% | 2.03% | 2.83 | 26.11% | 17.18% |
| Dustin Johnson | $11,200 | 6.47/1 | 31.43% | 25.34% | 24.30% | 28.45% | -2.98% | 4.15% | 4.48 | 32.53% | -4.08% |
| Hideki Matsuyama | $11,000 | 7.43/1 | 35.26% | 39.55% | 38.01% | 36.01% | 0.75% | -2.00% | 3.48 | 32.93% | 3.08% |
| Jason Day | $10,600 | 9.16/1 | 12.80% | 13.68% | 12.93% | 17.84% | 5.04% | 4.91% | 6.66 | 25.98% | -8.14% |
| Rory McIlroy | $9,900 | #N/A | 0.05% | 0.02% | 0.01% | 0.01% | -0.04% | 0.00% | 0.40% | -0.39% | |
| Patrick Reed | $9,500 | 18.95/1 | 25.14% | 26.10% | 25.67% | 14.30% | -10.84% | -11.37% | 7.90 | 29.19% | -14.89% |
| Adam Scott | $9,400 | #N/A | 0.04% | 0.03% | 0.02% | 0.01% | -0.03% | -0.01% | 0.26% | -0.25% | |
| Bubba Watson | $9,200 | 23.5/1 | 19.89% | 21.75% | 20.48% | 21.88% | 1.99% | 1.40% | 4.96 | 21.07% | 0.81% |
| Justin Thomas | $8,900 | 18.05/1 | 24.74% | 22.84% | 22.95% | 27.24% | 2.50% | 4.29% | 4.02 | 21.98% | 5.26% |
| Brandt Snedeker | $8,700 | 19/1 | 27.96% | 26.34% | 28.66% | 25.47% | -2.49% | -3.19% | 4.09 | 24.57% | 0.90% |
| Henrik Stenson | $8,600 | #N/A | 0.08% | 0.02% | 0.02% | 0.01% | -0.07% | -0.01% | 0.48% | -0.47% | |
| Daniel Berger | $8,500 | 28.5/1 | 24.08% | 22.61% | 25.40% | 25.97% | 1.89% | 0.57% | 3.98 | 19.83% | 6.14% |
| Charl Schwartzel | $8,300 | #N/A | 0.03% | 0.01% | 0.01% | 0.01% | -0.02% | 0.00% | 0.24% | -0.23% | |
| Russell Knox | $8,200 | 40/1 | 29.67% | 23.89% | 21.09% | 17.53% | -12.14% | -3.56% | 5.75 | 25.09% | -7.56% |
| Tony Finau | $8,000 | 59/1 | 11.19% | 12.04% | 11.16% | 11.78% | 0.59% | 0.62% | 7.66 | 12.21% | -0.43% |
| Jimmy Walker | $7,800 | 28.5/1 | 15.76% | 22.33% | 20.72% | 22.52% | 6.76% | 1.80% | 4.22 | 26.11% | -3.59% |
| Ryan Moore | $7,700 | 34/1 | 37.55% | 29.48% | 26.97% | 25.24% | -12.31% | -1.73% | 4.08 | 31.86% | -6.62% |
| Brendan Steele | $7,600 | 62/1 | 13.42% | 14.92% | 14.84% | 14.49% | 1.07% | -0.35% | 6.13 | 13.16% | 1.33% |
| Sergio Garcia | $7,600 | #N/A | 0.07% | 0.03% | 0.02% | 0.01% | -0.06% | -0.01% | 0.47% | -0.46% | |
| William McGirt | $7,500 | 98/1 | 13.88% | 9.74% | 7.35% | 7.06% | -6.82% | -0.29% | 11.35 | 9.90% | -2.84% |
| Jason Dufner | $7,400 | 51/1 | 23.64% | 19.67% | 23.71% | 22.16% | -1.48% | -1.55% | 4.20 | 27.74% | -5.58% |
| Danny Willett | $7,300 | #N/A | 0.05% | 0.01% | 0.01% | 0.01% | -0.04% | 0.00% | 0.21% | -0.20% | |
| Si-Woo Kim | $7,300 | 57/1 | 17.16% | 11.54% | 10.23% | 11.93% | -5.23% | 1.70% | 7.47 | 12.68% | -0.75% |
| Branden Grace | $7,200 | 39/1 | 34.92% | 37.20% | 35.24% | 32.40% | -2.52% | -2.84% | 2.81 | 40.29% | -7.89% |
| Pat Perez | $7,100 | 86/1 | 18.40% | 20.01% | 22.57% | 22.13% | 3.73% | -0.44% | 3.46 | 14.44% | 7.69% |
| Billy Hurley | $7,000 | 169/1 | 5.32% | 8.07% | 7.14% | 7.37% | 2.05% | 0.23% | 8.75 | 3.64% | 3.73% |
| Aaron Baddeley | $7,000 | 76/1 | 12.14% | 11.79% | 14.68% | 15.81% | 3.67% | 1.13% | 4.36 | 11.01% | 4.80% |
| Mackenzie Hughes | $6,900 | 103/1 | 10.15% | 9.47% | 9.67% | 12.99% | 2.84% | 3.32% | 4.49 | 9.03% | 3.96% |
| Brian Stuard | $6,900 | 259/1 | 3.41% | 1.62% | 1.49% | 1.97% | -1.44% | 0.48% | 26.27 | 1.68% | 0.29% |
| James Hahn | $6,800 | 97/1 | 9.61% | 9.25% | 12.58% | 13.07% | 3.46% | 0.49% | 5.64 | 12.15% | 0.92% |
| Cody Gribble | $6,700 | 114/1 | 28.96% | 24.49% | 22.75% | 22.25% | -6.71% | -0.50% | 2.71 | 18.43% | 3.82% |
| Fabian Gomez | $6,600 | 102/1 | 23.28% | 27.37% | 26.33% | 25.87% | 2.59% | -0.46% | 2.95 | 14.64% | 11.23% |
| Jhonattan Vegas | $6,500 | 103/1 | 18.32% | 26.70% | 28.94% | 29.40% | 11.08% | 0.46% | 2.61 | 35.35% | -5.95% |
| Vaughn Taylor | $6,400 | 160/1 | 9.36% | 10.73% | 9.51% | 9.43% | 0.07% | -0.08% | 6.45 | 7.37% | 2.06% |
| Charley Hoffman | $6,300 | 92/1 | 15.44% | 26.51% | 25.87% | 26.05% | 10.61% | 0.18% | 3.02 | 20.62% | 5.43% |
| Jim Herman | $6,200 | 278/1 | 5.11% | 2.60% | 2.45% | 2.09% | -3.02% | -0.36% | 29.81 | 7.13% | -5.04% |
| Rod Pampling | $6,100 | 231/1 | 6.02% | 3.14% | 3.22% | 4.41% | -1.61% | 1.19% | 12.79 | 5.37% | -0.96% |
| Greg Chalmers | $6,000 | 308/1 | 2.37% | 1.93% | 1.74% | 1.54% | -0.83% | -0.20% | 25.63 | 2.58% | -1.04% |