PGA Projected Ownership: The Barclays

There was an awakening last week, as Si Woo Kim (4.47% pOwn%, 3.13% actual) won his first PGA Tour event in impressive fashion. His cool 60 on Friday put him way ahead and no one could get really close for the rest of the weekend, Luke Donald (2.60% pOwn%, 2.06% actual) finished 5 strokes back for second place. Our “Hit it Alice” moment in the Wyndham was with Jason Dufner (11.36% pOwn%, 25.56% actual). Dufner ranked a distant fourth on our tout buzz meter, his line movement was flat and his course history was blah too (although he was generally considered to be a good course fit). Dufner took in much more ownership at the expense of Sneds, Mr. 58, Webb and Ryan Moore than we expected. Dufner’s T22 finish disappointed, but his BMB factor (burned me bad) factor won’t be too terribly high heading into the Barclays.

Editor’s Note: In the near future, subscribers to DraftKings PGA Premium content will have access to all current week and historical pOwn% data. Updates will be made throughout the week due to injury news, tout activity, odds/line movement, weather/tee-times, etc. But for this week, focusing on the $33 DK Dogleg, everyone has access to everything. Enjoy!

This Week’s Tweaks:

It’s playoff time for the PGA. We have nearly all the top 125 players in our last larger sized field of the season. Course history is diminished this week and we’ll be elevating our course fit stats weighting (SG: Tee-Green, around the green. Driving distance, ball striking, etc). Line movement has been noisy lately, so we are reducing weight there. Tout material weighting is steady and recent form is going up. Also, we are slightly kicking up the perceived own% factor. This whole ownership focus thing seems to be catching on.

We will be working the DK $400K ($33 entry) Dogleg Championship this week.

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Upper Tier ($10K +):

Dustin Johnson (17% pOwn%): DJ returns after the epic implosion at the PGA Championship at 43% ownership in the DK Milly Maker where he finished tied with guys like Joseph Summerhays and Rocco Mediate. DJ looked so lost and disinterested towards the end of the PGA Championship, kind of like his buddy J.R. Smith might look on a 3-for-18 bad shooting night. The BMB (burned me bad) factor is huge for DJ at the Barclays, many will move on to safer options like Day and Stenson in the top tier. But if DJ can refocus (cut down on the clubbing with Paulina, J.R., etc.), perhaps he can make good on his great course fit, course history and Vegas odds. Then again, we might see DJ untying someone’s shoelaces on the course this week. I worry about DJ…

Jordan Spieth (8% pOwn%): Henrik is running away with Spieth’s spot in the “Big 4”. Spieth has lost a good base of his ownership support group as evidenced by a low 10.6% own in the PGA Championship, but he did grind out a decent T13 there. Recent form studs like Rose, Koepka and Matsuyama linger at cheaper prices. Spieth has never played Bethpage (thank you Ryansixt for the edit tip) and tout buzz is light. It looks like another 9-10% ownership week for Spieth.

Middle Tier ($8K – $10K):

Branden Grace (17% pOwn%): The DK salary algo guys seem to target 19% ownership for Grace. DK aggressively swings Grace’s salary and have nailed their suspected ownership target the last three events (The Open-18%, PGA-19%, Travelers-20%). The T4 PGA Championship finish was inspiring, but the Travelers CUT (at $11.5K/20% own) sucked. With the salary swung back down to $8.7K and Vegas on board with strong odds, we believe DK will hit their Grace ownership target again.

Si Woo Kim (7% pOwn%): We now enter Si Woo’s honeymoon period after his wonderful Wyndham win. Recent honeymoons were not so steamy: Jimmy Walker CUT in Wyndham at $10K/10% own, Ryan Moore T53 finish in Wyndham at $10.6K/10% own. But Si Woo really dominated. It was a weaker field but he held off strong players like Hideki, Sneds, Rafa and Mr. 58. The salary jump to $8.4K seems reasonable. His Vegas odds are in line. Si Woo’s “Spieth-like” game is popping on some models out there. Can he be a sneaky play in this price range?

Lower Tier ($6.5K – $8K):

Russell Knox (15% pOwn% and rising): Another honeymooner returns after a nice win at the Travelers. He settles back into a similar “Majors-type field” price range where he carries little ownership: 9% at The Open and 2.5% at the PGA. But this time his odds should close in double digits, he closed at 220/1 at the PGA. Oh, and he won his last tourney which is easy to forget because of Mr. 58’s exploits at TPC River Highlands.

Daniel Berger (22% pOwn% and rising): Injury concerns have kept Berger’s ownership very low in recent tourneys but he was impressive with a T5 finish at the Travelers. With the wrist injury behind him, DFSers can now focus more on Berger’s perceived upside. There are not many others sticking out in this price range, except for maybe Horschel, Kisner and Glover.

Cheap Dart and Scrub Shop ($5.5K – $6.5K):

Webb Simpson (5% pOwn%): Webb had his chance to shine in his last two tourneys but stunk it up (Travelers at $10K, 35/1 closing odds, T34 finish, 13.7% own Wyndham at $10.2K, 31/1 closing odds, T72 finish, 20.9% own). DK combats a strong Webb BMB factor with a huge salary decrease to $6K. This is way below his usual “Majors-type field” salary range: The Open-$6.6K, PGA-$7.5K. The “Webb is about to pop” crowd is still out there and very loyal. To many, he will simply seem way undervalued this week.

Daniel Summerhays (8% pOwn% and rising): Daniel Summerhays (not to be confused with Joe) followed his surprising solo 3rd place PGA Championship with a strong T11 at the Travelers. Then followed a nasty CUT at the John Deere. But did anyone notice? Many were distracted by the Olympics. He finished 6th last year in the Barclays (not Bethpage) and it’s easier to throw out “outlier” bad tourneys down here in the cheaper salary range. Daniel Summerhays could be chalky again this week.

Updates will be made late Wednesday night and a few hours before roster lock.

Good luck Grinders!

Legend

Golfer Sal Odds MonpOwn% TuepOwn% WedpOwn% ThupOwn% % ChangeSince Open % ChangeSince Yesterday ContR Act Own% Var
Jason Day $12,400 7.91/1 24.64% 25.35% 28.10% 28.10% 3.46% 0.00% 3.82 24.54% 3.56%
Dustin Johnson $11,900 11.55/1 21.07% 18.37% 16.99% 16.99% -4.08% 0.00% 6.18 24.82% -7.83%
Henrik Stenson $11,700 13.95/1 14.93% 14.72% 13.19% 13.19% -1.74% 0.00% 7.79 20.31% -7.12%
Rory McIlroy $11,600 13/1 18.55% 18.77% 16.47% 16.47% -2.08% 0.00% 6.10 13.20% 3.27%
Jordan Spieth $11,000 18.75/1 9.66% 9.83% 8.31% 8.31% -1.35% 0.00% 11.54 14.10% -5.79%
Justin Rose $10,300 29.5/1 14.28% 14.94% 12.73% 12.73% -1.55% 0.00% 7.15 12.35% 0.38%
Brooks Koepka $10,100 31.5/1 10.04% 10.34% 17.44% 17.44% 7.40% 0.00% 5.43 14.75% 2.69%
Hideki Matsuyama $9,900 29/1 11.98% 12.94% 12.54% 12.54% 0.56% 0.00% 7.16 14.40% -1.86%
Phil Mickelson $9,700 33.5/1 16.34% 16.10% 20.08% 20.08% 3.74% 0.00% 4.89 15.84% 4.24%
Adam Scott $9,500 36.5/1 13.94% 13.85% 13.23% 13.23% -0.71% 0.00% 7.06 19.79% -6.56%
Rickie Fowler $9,300 58/1 5.91% 5.70% 4.92% 4.92% -0.99% 0.00% 17.26 8.56% -3.64%
Matt Kuchar $9,200 58/1 17.83% 18.33% 16.65% 16.65% -1.18% 0.00% 5.54 11.84% 4.81%
Bubba Watson $9,100 39/1 16.15% 17.04% 19.06% 19.06% 2.91% 0.00% 4.65 15.40% 3.66%
Louis Oosthuizen $9,000 91/1 3.77% 3.56% 2.88% 2.88% -0.89% 0.00% 22.94 2.66% 0.22%
Brandt Snedeker $8,900 45/1 15.08% 16.41% 16.97% 16.97% 1.89% 0.00% 5.15 11.88% 5.09%
Patrick Reed $8,800 61/1 12.12% 12.92% 13.50% 13.50% 1.38% 0.00% 6.20 12.56% 0.94%
Branden Grace $8,700 51/1 18.64% 19.44% 17.15% 17.15% -1.49% 0.00% 4.60 8.82% 8.33%
Jim Furyk $8,600 72/1 17.15% 16.98% 13.72% 13.72% -3.43% 0.00% 4.87 13.92% -0.20%
Charl Schwartzel $8,500 86/1 9.90% 9.43% 10.68% 10.68% 0.78% 0.00% 8.07 10.49% 0.19%
Si-Woo Kim $8,400 82/1 13.36% 12.03% 6.81% 6.81% -6.55% 0.00% 10.16 4.62% 2.19%
Emiliano Grillo $8,300 82/1 7.74% 7.71% 8.62% 8.62% 0.88% 0.00% 8.21 10.08% -1.46%
Jimmy Walker $8,200 89/1 10.85% 11.71% 10.34% 10.34% -0.51% 0.00% 7.27 3.61% 6.73%
Zach Johnson $8,100 103/1 8.80% 8.82% 7.64% 7.64% -1.16% 0.00% 9.68 8.84% -1.20%
Justin Thomas $8,000 118/1 6.17% 5.76% 5.79% 5.79% -0.38% 0.00% 10.46 3.58% 2.21%
Marc Leishman $7,900 211/1 2.26% 2.15% 1.43% 1.43% -0.83% 0.00% 43.46 2.55% -1.12%
Paul Casey $7,800 103/1 7.20% 7.99% 9.41% 9.41% 2.21% 0.00% 8.12 7.64% 1.77%
Ryan Moore $7,700 195/1 9.38% 7.34% 5.33% 5.33% -4.05% 0.00% 14.56 5.70% -0.37%
Keegan Bradley $7,600 136/1 2.56% 2.75% 2.78% 2.78% 0.22% 0.00% 21.23 3.38% -0.60%
Graeme McDowell $7,600 274/1 3.97% 3.22% 2.02% 2.02% -1.95% 0.00% 19.14 2.19% -0.17%
Gary Woodland $7,500 118/1 4.92% 5.76% 9.15% 9.15% 4.23% 0.00% 7.48 3.16% 5.99%
Luke Donald $7,500 124/1 8.42% 8.55% 8.14% 8.14% -0.28% 0.00% 6.00 4.15% 3.99%
Patrick Rodgers $7,400 149/1 1.51% 1.43% 1.96% 1.96% 0.45% 0.00% 26.12 2.78% -0.82%
Jhonattan Vegas $7,400 288/1 2.82% 2.65% 1.80% 1.80% -1.02% 0.00% 34.96 2.98% -1.18%
Kevin Na $7,300 96/1 15.18% 13.04% 17.28% 17.28% 2.10% 0.00% 4.77 20.16% -2.88%
Russell Knox $7,300 106/1 17.93% 14.73% 14.47% 14.47% -3.46% 0.00% 5.53 18.67% -4.20%
Charley Hoffman $7,200 200/1 1.21% 1.34% 2.16% 2.16% 0.95% 0.00% 21.89 2.03% 0.13%
Russell Henley $7,200 260/1 2.18% 1.72% 1.25% 1.25% -0.93% 0.00% 39.70 1.29% -0.04%
Bill Haas $7,100 136/1 6.72% 6.75% 6.60% 6.60% -0.12% 0.00% 9.06 8.25% -1.65%
Steve Stricker $7,100 288/1 3.85% 3.92% 2.71% 2.71% -1.14% 0.00% 19.47 3.93% -1.22%
Alex Cejka $7,000 Off 2.92% 2.97% 0.04% 0.04% -2.88% 0.00% 1455.82 0.30% -0.26%
Tony Finau $7,000 154/1 3.34% 3.18% 4.26% 4.26% 0.92% 0.00% 9.44 3.78% 0.48%
Daniel Berger $6,900 68/1 7.73% 10.13% 22.54% 22.54% 14.81% 0.00% 3.61 24.24% -1.70%
Scott Brown $6,900 641/1 0.91% 1.14% 1.12% 1.12% 0.21% 0.00% 28.88 0.83% 0.29%
David Lingmerth $6,800 150/1 2.87% 3.17% 3.34% 3.34% 0.47% 0.00% 18.37 3.18% 0.16%
Graham DeLaet $6,800 272/1 0.80% 0.82% 0.75% 0.75% -0.05% 0.00% 57.82 0.67% 0.08%
Billy Horschel $6,700 76/1 19.66% 21.64% 21.18% 21.18% 1.52% 0.00% 3.19 15.72% 5.46%
Kyle Stanley $6,700 562/1 0.95% 0.91% 0.88% 0.88% -0.07% 0.00% 0.66% 0.22%
Jason Dufner $6,600 130/1 10.19% 9.43% 9.33% 9.33% -0.86% 0.00% 7.80 12.16% -2.83%
Lucas Glover $6,600 154/1 3.14% 5.61% 6.82% 6.82% 3.68% 0.00% 8.42 4.23% 2.59%
Scott Piercy $6,500 204/1 1.65% 2.35% 3.45% 3.45% 1.80% 0.00% 12.80 3.28% 0.17%
Charles Howell $6,500 442/1 0.37% 0.35% 0.29% 0.29% -0.08% 0.00% 173.82 2.95% -2.66%
Kevin Kisner $6,400 145/1 15.94% 14.65% 9.93% 9.93% -6.01% 0.00% 7.20 15.14% -5.21%
J.B. Holmes $6,400 132/1 4.14% 4.11% 7.13% 7.13% 2.99% 0.00% 9.05 7.50% -0.37%
Harris English $6,300 214/1 2.76% 2.64% 3.65% 3.65% 0.89% 0.00% 14.24 4.32% -0.67%
Adam Hadwin $6,300 394/1 0.89% 0.93% 0.97% 0.97% 0.08% 0.00% 40.67 1.28% -0.31%
Patton Kizzire $6,200 620/1 0.61% 0.57% 0.49% 0.49% -0.12% 0.00% 1.09% -0.60%
Billy Hurley $6,200 902/1 0.72% 0.67% 0.60% 0.60% -0.12% 0.00% 0.25% 0.35%
Hudson Swafford $6,200 288/1 1.48% 1.50% 1.64% 1.64% 0.16% 0.00% 25.49 2.55% -0.91%
Fredrik Jacobson $6,200 946/1 0.59% 0.67% 0.62% 0.62% 0.03% 0.00% 0.46% 0.16%
Robert Streb $6,100 305/1 1.64% 1.43% 1.47% 1.47% -0.17% 0.00% 23.80 1.47% 0.00%
Danny Lee $6,100 192/1 5.25% 4.89% 3.51% 3.51% -1.74% 0.00% 13.69 3.05% 0.46%
William McGirt $6,100 231/1 8.30% 7.94% 4.68% 4.68% -3.62% 0.00% 14.95 7.59% -2.91%
Aaron Baddeley $6,100 241/1 1.37% 1.34% 1.33% 1.33% -0.04% 0.00% 27.10 2.03% -0.70%
Chris Kirk $6,100 307/1 1.04% 0.99% 1.00% 1.00% -0.04% 0.00% 42.58 1.25% -0.25%
Webb Simpson $6,000 286/1 11.45% 6.88% 5.29% 5.29% -6.16% 0.00% 12.34 7.74% -2.45%
Brian Harman $6,000 442/1 1.83% 2.61% 1.77% 1.77% -0.06% 0.00% 17.38 0.44% 1.33%
Chez Reavie $6,000 437/1 1.28% 1.55% 1.58% 1.58% 0.30% 0.00% 21.81 0.68% 0.90%
Jon Curran $6,000 818/1 0.34% 0.71% 0.58% 0.58% 0.24% 0.00% 0.18% 0.40%
Francesco Molinari $6,000 250/1 3.72% 3.62% 5.32% 5.32% 1.60% 0.00% 10.65 7.32% -2.00%
Chad Campbell $6,000 581/1 0.51% 0.48% 0.46% 0.46% -0.05% 0.00% 0.55% -0.09%
Spencer Levin $6,000 948/1 0.46% 0.33% 0.22% 0.22% -0.24% 0.00% 0.21% 0.01%
Mark Hubbard $6,000 948/1 0.11% 0.12% 0.10% 0.10% -0.01% 0.00% 0.06% 0.04%
Harold Varner $5,900 670/1 0.68% 0.67% 0.63% 0.63% -0.05% 0.00% 0.47% 0.16%
Ryan Palmer $5,900 156/1 2.28% 3.85% 5.39% 5.39% 3.11% 0.00% 11.82 12.04% -6.65%
Brendan Steele $5,900 192/1 2.84% 2.73% 4.40% 4.40% 1.56% 0.00% 12.35 3.36% 1.04%
Luke List $5,900 354/1 1.15% 1.36% 1.45% 1.45% 0.30% 0.00% 0.56% 0.89%
Kevin Chappell $5,900 150/1 7.74% 7.90% 8.14% 8.14% 0.40% 0.00% 6.87 7.58% 0.56%
Cameron Tringale $5,900 708/1 0.80% 0.73% 0.66% 0.66% -0.14% 0.00% 0.20% 0.46%
Andrew Loupe $5,900 250/1 0.52% 0.64% 0.69% 0.69% 0.17% 0.00% 0.36% 0.33%
David Toms $5,900 948/1 0.13% 0.13% 0.12% 0.12% -0.01% 0.00% 0.03% 0.09%
Sean O’Hair $5,900 668/1 0.44% 0.93% 0.88% 0.88% 0.44% 0.00% 38.56 0.33% 0.55%
Jerry Kelly $5,800 785/1 1.66% 1.58% 1.20% 1.20% -0.46% 0.00% 26.08 1.25% -0.05%
Kyle Reifers $5,800 442/1 0.33% 0.26% 0.21% 0.21% -0.12% 0.00% 0.60% -0.39%
Daniel Summerhays $5,800 164/1 7.26% 7.61% 7.86% 7.86% 0.60% 0.00% 7.01 6.24% 1.62%
Jason Kokrak $5,800 346/1 1.41% 1.68% 1.76% 1.76% 0.35% 0.00% 20.18 0.42% 1.34%
Peter Malnati $5,800 946/1 0.14% 0.15% 0.13% 0.13% -0.01% 0.00% 0.13% 0.00%
Johnson Wagner $5,800 260/1 8.85% 9.75% 5.71% 5.71% -3.14% 0.00% 8.14 4.12% 1.59%
Troy Merritt $5,800 857/1 0.19% 0.27% 0.25% 0.25% 0.06% 0.00% 0.04% 0.21%
Sung Kang $5,800 948/1 0.26% 0.24% 0.16% 0.16% -0.10% 0.00% 0.09% 0.07%
Colt Knost $5,800 668/1 0.46% 0.31% 0.28% 0.28% -0.18% 0.00% 0.46% -0.18%
K.J. Choi $5,800 784/1 0.53% 0.48% 0.31% 0.31% -0.22% 0.00% 97.53 0.39% -0.08%
Ricky Barnes $5,800 262/1 3.15% 2.74% 2.60% 2.60% -0.55% 0.00% 17.58 2.50% 0.10%
Seung-Yul Noh $5,700 691/1 2.15% 1.61% 1.34% 1.34% -0.81% 0.00% 0.07% 1.27%
Jim Herman $5,700 948/1 0.13% 0.12% 0.09% 0.09% -0.04% 0.00% 0.09% 0.00%
Derek Fathauer $5,700 948/1 0.08% 0.10% 0.07% 0.07% -0.01% 0.00% 0.12% -0.05%
Kevin Streelman $5,700 400/1 0.74% 0.92% 0.96% 0.96% 0.22% 0.00% 0.54% 0.42%
Robert Garrigus $5,700 238/1 6.18% 6.88% 9.09% 9.09% 2.91% 0.00% 5.89 10.90% -1.81%
Vijay Singh $5,700 946/1 0.39% 0.25% 0.20% 0.20% -0.19% 0.00% 0.22% -0.02%
Martin Laird $5,700 399/1 1.74% 2.19% 2.13% 2.13% 0.39% 0.00% 17.42 0.54% 1.59%
Ben Martin $5,700 437/1 1.16% 1.47% 1.51% 1.51% 0.35% 0.00% 24.22 0.35% 1.16%
Roberto Castro $5,700 442/1 2.51% 2.33% 2.45% 2.45% -0.06% 0.00% 18.34 5.56% -3.11%
Brett Stegmaier $5,700 701/1 2.70% 2.71% 2.69% 2.69% -0.01% 0.00% 0.43% 2.26%
John Senden $5,600 564/1 0.61% 0.84% 0.82% 0.82% 0.21% 0.00% 46.20 0.84% -0.02%
Ben Crane $5,600 948/1 0.24% 0.23% 0.18% 0.18% -0.06% 0.00% 0.05% 0.13%
John Huh $5,600 900/1 0.12% 0.20% 0.21% 0.21% 0.09% 0.00% 0.14% 0.07%
James Hahn $5,600 521/1 0.24% 0.27% 0.29% 0.29% 0.05% 0.00% 0.25% 0.04%
Fabian Gomez $5,600 948/1 0.32% 0.33% 0.25% 0.25% -0.07% 0.00% 0.14% 0.11%
Jamie Lovemark $5,600 480/1 1.38% 1.15% 1.85% 1.85% 0.47% 0.00% 22.17 1.73% 0.12%
Blayne Barber $5,600 783/1 1.54% 0.97% 0.80% 0.80% -0.74% 0.00% 0.76% 0.04%
Smylie Kaufman $5,600 473/1 0.73% 0.76% 1.08% 1.08% 0.35% 0.00% 30.93 1.53% -0.45%
David Hearn $5,600 783/1 1.07% 1.01% 0.94% 0.94% -0.13% 0.00% 33.85 0.39% 0.55%
Bryce Molder $5,600 783/1 0.42% 0.41% 0.39% 0.39% -0.03% 0.00% 0.42% -0.03%
Zac Blair $5,500 948/1 0.09% 0.09% 0.08% 0.08% -0.01% 0.00% 0.34% -0.26%
Jonas Blixt $5,500 509/1 0.33% 0.36% 0.37% 0.37% 0.04% 0.00% 0.62% -0.25%
Brian Stuard $5,500 785/1 0.17% 0.19% 0.19% 0.19% 0.02% 0.00% 0.20% -0.01%
Vaughn Taylor $5,500 814/1 0.94% 0.86% 0.81% 0.81% -0.13% 0.00% 0.32% 0.49%
Shawn Stefani $5,500 648/1 3.12% 3.47% 0.86% 0.86% -2.26% 0.00% 1.81% -0.95%
Tyrone Van-Aswegen $5,500 946/1 0.75% 0.47% 0.36% 0.36% -0.39% 0.00% 0.60% -0.24%
Michael Kim $5,500 946/1 0.38% 0.28% 0.23% 0.23% -0.15% 0.00% 0.44% -0.21%
Boo Weekley $5,500 538/1 0.81% 0.66% 0.17% 0.17% -0.64% 0.00% 193.39 0.54% -0.37%
Jason Bohn $5,500 946/1 0.17% 0.14% 0.12% 0.12% -0.05% 0.00% 0.64% -0.52%

About the Author

Traeko
Trae Schwabe (Traeko)

Trae Schwabe began providing PGA projected ownership analysis for the largest DraftKings GPPs in 2016 and has since expanded PGA pOWN% coverage to include FanDuel and most recently DK Showdown slates. His pOWN% process is constantly evolving and focuses on delivering numerous updates, past performance transparency, and most importantly, industry-leading accuracy.