PGA Splits Advanced Data Picks and Analysis: Northern Trust
Hosted by the Liberty National Golf Club, The Northern Trust begins the first round of the FedExCup Playoffs. Stretching nearly a mile along the New Jersey coastline, and with spectacular views of the Statue of Liberty and the Manhattan skyline in the distance, a world-class player field will participate on an open-parkland style course known for being in immaculate condition. Other than the amazing backdrop, nothing about the course itself is all that unique. Measuring at 7,410 yards, the par 71 course has an “attempted” links feel to it, though everyone agrees it does not play like a links-style course at all. It is exposed to New York Harbor and frequent unpredictable winds, and also includes some danger off the tee. But back in 2019, when Patrick Reed won here at the same tournament, numerous players had rounds in the low 60s and, overall, scoring was 0.75 strokes under par. Overall, there is a balanced mix of hole types and yardage ranges. There are only three par 5s, but their importance cannot be underestimated. Back in 2019, 40% of the scoring (birdies or better) was accomplished on those three holes. The course’s main defense includes 98 bunkers, 10 holes with water hazards in play, the sixth smallest greens on Tour, and speedy undulating bentgrass greens. And with the second-highest “Strength of Field” rating for the entire season, the level of competition to get to the top of the leaderboard will also affect certain players more than others. With these conditions in mind, let’s analyze a few of the relevant historical splits which should provide a guide for us regarding the process of player selection for our DraftKings lineups.