PGA TOUR DFS Core Plays: The Genesis Invitational
Top-ranked DFS player, Notorious, breaks down his favorite PGA DFS picks at various salary ranges for this week’s tournament. Who should you be building around? Find out below.
The WM Phoenix Open is always fun but perhaps a little too fun last week. You know things are getting out of hand when they are cutting off alcohol sales and when the players are getting into it with the fans. Nick Taylor was able to fend off Charley Hoffman by birdieing the 18th hole three consecutive times. He became the 6th straight winner this year with pre-tournament outright odds of at least +8000. It’s been a crazy run for long shots, and hopefully, one that comes to an end soon.
This week, we have The Genesis Invitational. We have a slightly different format this time around, as there are only 70 golfers in the field. I’m not a huge fan of no-cut events, so I was happy to see the PGA TOUR roll out a Masters-like cut rule for this week. The top 50 and ties plus any golfer within 10 strokes of the lead will stick around and play the weekend. This means at least 71% of the field will make the cut, so there will be a ton of 6/6 lineups in DFS.
Noto’s PGA Model Download & Video for The Genesis Invitational
Riviera Country Club is a Par 71 that measures 7,322 yards. It features three Par 5s and a driveable Par 4 that gives golfers and fans headaches. The 1st hole is one of the easiest holes on the PGA TOUR, but the rest of the course has some serious teeth. We’ll likely see the winning score somewhere in the -15 range and should see a lot of rounds over par throughout the four days. The fairways here aren’t particularly narrow, but they are difficult to hit on average given the undulations and number of doglegs on the course. The rough isn’t super penal, which makes distance a bigger asset than accuracy this week.
The greens at Riviera are large (7,500 square feet) but difficult to hit on average. This is due to several factors — many will be playing their approach shots from the rough, many will be blocked out by trees, and the greens feature run-off areas that repel bad shots. The field only hit 55% of greens in regulation in 2023. The importance of strokes gained around the green is about as high as you’ll see on TOUR relative to overall strokes gained at this event. The greens themselves are fast and feature poa annua grass, which is always a favorite talking point of golfers.
Course history is more predictive at Riviera than at any other course on TOUR with the exception of Augusta National. Golfers that play well here tend to come back and continue playing well here. This doesn’t mean first-timers can’t contend, but they are certainly at an experience disadvantage compared to most weeks. I’m looking for good drivers of the ball, good iron players (emphasis on 150+ yards), elite scramblers, and golfers that are comfortable on poa annua greens.
PGA DFS Picks: DraftKings & FanDuel Core Plays for The Genesis Invitational
Field Size:
- 70 golfers
Cut Rule:
- Top 50 and ties plus anyone within 10 shots of the lead
Weather Forecasts
- Roth’s Forecast (link coming soon)
- Windfinder
- Accuweather
Riviera Country Clubs
- Location: Pacific Palisades, California
- Par 71 — 7,322 yards
- Difficulty: 2023 (16th), 2022 (17th), 2021 (26th), 2020 (42nd), 2019 (18th)
- Fairway width in landing areas: 33 yards
- Green size: 7,500 square feet
- Grass type on greens: poa annua
- 2023 driving averages:
- Driving distance = 295 yards
- Driving accuracy = 51%
- Greens in regulation = 55%
Event Notes
- Interesting field size of 70 for the first time at this event
- Classical golf course with tree-lined fairways and large greens
- Run-off areas around the green will repel bad approach shots
- Fairways and greens are both difficult to hit compared to TOUR average
- Distance is more important than accuracy, as everyone struggles to find fairways
- Around the green plays a critical role here every year (most important strokes gained metric relative to strokes gained total here in 2023)
- The greens are fast and feature tricky poa annua grass
- The rough isn’t too thick, but the kikuyugrass can cause tricky lies
- Not many wedges on this course, mostly mid and long irons
- This course requires golfers to be sharp in all aspects
What to Look For
- Strokes gained approach
- Strokes gained around the green
- Strokes gained off the tee (lean to distance over accuracy)
- Bogey avoidance
- Experience in California
- Course history
- Strokes gained putting (emphasis on poa annua)
Core Plays
Patrick Cantlay
DraftKings — $9,300 / pOWN: 18.1%
FanDuel — $10,900 / pOWN: 21.0%
SG: OTT — 3
SG: APP — 11
Bogey Avoidance — 9
SG: ATG — 17
SG: Putting (Poa) — 25
Stat Rank — 6
Noto Rating — 85.9
Cantlay isn’t off to a blazing start this season, but he’s finished in the top 15 at The Sentry and at the Pebble Beach Pro-Am. His recent ball-striking numbers leave much to be desired, but he’s going to figure that out sooner rather than later. He’s typically one of the most expensive golfers in the field at this event, so I like taking the price discount. As you can see above, he doesn’t have a weakness in his game. He’s good off the tee, on approach, around the green, and putting on poa annua. He’s made 6 straight cuts here, with 5 top 20 finishes and a 3rd place finish last year.
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