PGA Value Breakdown: Quicken Loans National
Selecting the absolute best value out there is crucial to cruising to top of the leaderboards. PGA guru Josh “futureoffantasy” Culp dives into the player pool, picking out his favorite value options for the week’s tournament.
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Quicken Loans National
Anirban Lahiri ($7800 DK / $8200 FD / $13900 FDRFT)
After an early-year slump, he’s now gained strokes over the field in four straight starts. That includes last week’s top 10 where he posted four sub-70 rounds for the first time in his career. He did that largely by gaining 4.5 strokes on approach which is his fourth-best week ever in that department. He’s also posted better birdie rates compared to the field in four of his last five starts. That is the type of scoring upside that originally attracted owners to Lahiri when he earned a PGA TOUR card. Riding the hot hand, I think Lahiri is good for another top 20 this week.
Danny Lee ($8000 DK / $8600 FD / $14400 FDRFT)
Always a boom-or-bust option, Lee will either be flirting with contention or flirting with DFL most weeks. Last week he was flirting with contention as he entered the final round T11 and finished T15 on the week. That tournament took place in Connecticut which is in a similar region in terms of grass types. In fact, Lee’s lone PGA TOUR win came at The Greenbrier and he has six other top 10s on these cool-season grasses. Looking at TPC Potomac, specifically, he was T10 at the midpoint last year and ultimately settled at T22 by week’s end. A very strong showing and I’d look for a similar output this week.
David Lingmerth ($8200 DK / $7900 FD / $14500 FDRFT)
Similar to the Danny Lee story above, Lingmerth does a lot of his damage in this region. The Swede has 12 career top 10s and seven of those have come at the following events: QL National, The Greenbrier, the Memorial, or the WGC-Bridgestone. If you look at a map of the United States, you’ll quickly see the area of the country that brings out the best in Lingmerth. Adding to that appeal, one of those top 10s came here at TPC Potomac last year. In addition to that, he also won a Web.com Tour event at the course back in 2012. He’s very comfortable on the course and region, making him a strong candidate to contend this week.
Joel Dahmen ($7300 DK / $8300 FD / $12200 FDRFT)
He flopped during his spotlight chalk week at the St. Jude Classic. He was coming off three straight top 20s at the time but he’s now missed back-to-back cuts. It’s easy to write him off based on the recent results, but those seven straight cuts made before that are still not too far from the top of his mind. If TPC Potomac plays anything like last year then boring, fairways-and-greens golf should rise to the top. Dahmen does just that, hitting more fairways than the field in six of his last eight starts. That should be crucial on a course like TPC Potomac where hazards are lurking everywhere. Simply by keeping it out of the trouble, Dahmen has a very good chance to pick off another top 20 but his ownership will be very, very low given his recent MCs.
Kevin Tway ($8000 DK / $9300 FD / $14300 FDRFT)
TPC Potomac presents an all-around test to these golfers and Tway is ringing that bell recently. Looking at his last 5 starts or even his last 10 starts, Tway has an average strokes gained over 0 in all four sub-categories (off-the-tee, approach, around-the-green, and putting). That has helped him post more birdies per round than the field in five of his last six starts. More impressively, he’s playing smart golf, avoiding double bogeys at a higher clip than the field in eight of his last nine starts. Tway packs the power to rack up fantasy points but his all-around game is keeping him out of trouble. Three of his six career top 10s have come in the last 40 days. Last year we saw Tway finally get comfortable on the big stage. Now we are seeing him get comfortable in contention. It wouldn’t be shocking to see him pick up a win before the year is over, so I will likely invest anytime he’s a bargain like this.
Nick Watney ($7500 DK / $8700 FD / $13100 FDRFT)
The five-time TOUR winner is having a bounce-back year in 2018. He is 14-for-18 on the season which isn’t aided by any no-cut events which often boosts the cuts-made ratio of the bigger names. Tee-to-green is rarely a problem for Watney but he’s actually showing a lot of consistency with the flat stick this year. Speaking of tee-to-green, he has actually gained strokes tee-to-green in 13 of his last 15 starts. That kind of ball-striking is what earns paychecks and that’s all we really need from a golfer at this price point. If he synce his entire game up and grabs a top 10 that’s extra gravy but all we really need from him is a nice, steady top 30 with a birdie rate that is better than the field average. I like his chances this week on a course that rewards good ball-strikers.
Matt Jones ($7600 DK / $8500 FD / $12900 FDRFT)
Don’t look now but this Aussie is starting to flash some of that upside that made him such a popular fantasy option back in 2013 thru 2015. All it took was a T19 during the team event to spark some life. Since then, Jones has picked up a pair of top 20s in four starts. He was also T19 thru 36 holes at the St. Jude Classic in one of those starts. His iron play is what’s made the biggest improvement over that stretch. If we are to trust current form, then Jones is a very appealing sleeper this week as he’s trending in the proper direction in most aspects of the game. Jones also scrambled his butt off here last year en route to a T38 (+5.4 strokes gained around-the-green). If he continues his strong recent iron play then another top 35 should be no problem this week. Would definitely reserve him for GPPs only, given his season-long mediocrity.
Adam Hadwin ($7300 DK / $9700 FD / $13700 FDRFT)
We can call this the Curious Case of the Mispriced Canadian. This is especially true on DraftKings but he provides value across the industry, as well. Hadwin posted five straight top 25s earlier this year but since then he’s finished T42 or worse in five straight events. That recent form might deserve the price tag he’s generated but from a long-term view he is easily the class of his tier this week, or at least near the top. As a Canadian, he will naturally gravitate toward non-bermuda putting surfaces as well and that checks out in the data with most of his damage coming on overseeded, bentgrass, or poa annua surfaces. Based on his long-term performance I have him graded at 12th-most likely to make the cut this week but his price doesn’t reflect that across the industry.
Andrew Putnam ($7900 DK / $9800 FD / $14200 FDRFT)
He’s been dormant since his career-best, runner-up finish at the St. Jude Classic. If he would have pegged it the next week then we’d see massive chalk. However, two weeks in the DFS world is a lifetime so many gamers will have pushed Putnam out of their memory bank. That’s good news since it means a bit lower ownership on a golfer that has rattled off seven straight cuts made, top 20s in four of those. His long-terms stats suggests that is unsustainable and he’s more of a boom-or-bust option. Still, his recent run of top-heavy finishes at least makes him worthy of some GPP sprinkles this week. He’s also a Washington (state) native and residence so these cool-season grasses should be comfortable for him.
Rory Sabbatini ($7400 DK / $8800 FD / $12900 FDRFT)
Finally snapped the torrid run of good fun but was that just the calm before the storm? Before last week’s missed cut, Sabbatini had gained 4.5 or more strokes over the field in five of his last six starts. That recent run of steady results is very appealing but his history at TPC Potomac puts some icing on the otherwise average cake. Sabbatini is one of the few golfers with history here before the major renovations. Before that, he boasts a 3-for-4 record at TPC Potomac with three finishes of 6th place or better, including a win at the 2003 FBR Capital Open. The course had some major overhaul since then but those memories certainly can’t hurt Sabbatini as he looks to get right back on track after an MC.
James Hahn ($7200 DK / $8500 FD / $12800 FDRFT)
After a mid-season slump, Hahn is back on the radar for me. Early-season Hahn was a cut-making machine which is unlike him but five straight missed cuts also doesn’t do his talent justice. Looking at adjusted strokes gained per round in 2018 only, Hahn ranks 21st in this week’s field. Looking at historical performance of this field, Hahn also ranks 24th in terms of cut-made probability this week. What’s great about Hahn is that he’s not scared of winning when that possibility arises. He’s a two-time TOUR winner and all five times he’s entered the final round inside the top 5, he’s finished the week inside the top 10. With a decent chance at making the cut paired with winning upside, Hahn quickly becomes a viable and valuable GPP option.
J.T. Poston ($7700 DK / $9000 FD / $12900 FDRFT)
If you read my specialist article this week, you’ll see that J.T. Poston has slightly underperformed on similar courses. However, course fit is only one piece of the puzzle. What trumps course fit in this situation is motivation and recent performance. Playing on conditional status only this season, Poston has rattled off top 30s in five of his last seven solo starts. That has him positioned at 108th in the FedExCup race. He’ll need to stay inside the top 125 to regain his full playing privileges. There might be some golfers with more cachet who are might just go through the motions if they enter the final round ranked 40th on the leaderboard, for example. As for Poston, he is going to have his full attention on every stroke he makes because every single FedExCup Point matters when it comes to deciding his fate for the 2018-19 season.
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