PGA Value Breakdown: U.S. Open
Selecting the absolute best value out there is crucial to cruising to top of the leaderboards. PGA guru Josh “futureoffantasy” Culp dives into the player pool, picking out his favorite value options for the week’s tournament.
U.S. Open Championship
Heading to Long Island for the season’s second major, there are a lot of superstars arriving in good form.
Shinnecock Hills is a golf course that will reward those stars and punish others that arrive in search of form.
If you want to fit in one or two of the big names, you’ll need some value to fill out your squads. Here are some of my favorites.
Steve Stricker ($6900 DK / $9800 FD / $11800 FDRFT)
Distance is always a nice advantage to have but there will always be that bucket of golfers that just stripes fairway after fairway to erase the distance advantage. Stricker falls in that category as he annually falls outside the top 150 in driving distance but is usually hovering near the top in fairways hit. For Stricker, he has parlayed that precision (and elite short game) into a lot of success on tough, USGA setups. In fact, he’s racked up top 30s in nine of his last 10 U.S. Open appearances. He may not be hoisting the hardware by week’s end but he’s a pretty safe bet to earn a paycheck and hover around page 2 of the leaderboard.
Jimmy Walker ($7300 DK / $9800 FD / $13100 FDRFT)
Stirred up the pot with recent Twitter comments but he made a pre-tournament comment about it and I’d expect that to the last he’ll comment on it. Now onto the good stuff, Walker arrives with stellar lead-in form. He’s gained 6 or more strokes tee-to-green in each of his last four starts. The approaches have been especially good (+6.4, +5.0, +2.1, +5.0). That confidence has spilled over into his putting which has gained 3.8 or more strokes in three of his last four starts. This all coincides with his wife saying she has the “Old Jimmy” back in terms of his health. Lastly, he won the PGA Championship at Baltusrol so we know he can contend on a tough course in this region.
Brandt Snedeker ($7300 DK / $9500 FD / $12600 FDRFT)
Some golfers rule themselves out of the tournament on Morning morning when they get to the course and start complaining about the USGA. Some guys love them while others can’t stand the way they set up golf courses. Snedeker would likely fall under the first category as he’s found top 20s in 7 of his last 9 U.S. Open appearances. Coming off a season-best T6 in Memphis, Snedeker might be finding his game just in time for a tournament he loves.
Ian Poulter ($7300 DK / $9500 FD / $12600 FDRFT)
Sticking with the theme of plodders that are underpriced, the Englishman is very affordable across the industry. It’s somewhat fitting in a Ryder Cup year that a Match Play event would kick-start his season. Since the strong week at the WGC-Match Play he is 6-for-6 worldwide with five top 20s. That includes a win at the Houston Open. If we look at his resume in majors he has five career top 15s at The Open (good links performance) and four top 15s at the Masters (a lot of uneven sidehill lies). At this point in his career we shouldn’t get our hopes up with a win but a top 15 could certainly be in the cards.
Emiliano Grillo ($7100 DK / $8800 FD / $12800 FDRFT)
He’s yet to really shine in the big events but his game matches up well for the majors and he’s trending nicely at the moment. The Argentine has gained 3.5 or more strokes on approach in four of his last five starts. That’s in the elite category. After a putting slump in 2017, Grillo has refound his putting stroke this season, gaining stroked with the flat stick in 10 of his 12 ShotLink events. Top-tier approach play with confident putting is the recipe for top 10s.
Charl Schwartzel ($7700 DK / $8800 FD / $13600 FDRFT)
Was positioned inside the top 20 at the midpoint last week before a weekend implosion ruined the gloss on his finish. Still, he’s now been T19 or better after 36 holes in three of his last four starts. He actually did the same thing right before his 2016 Valspar win even though they were separated by the holiday break. He was T30 or better (thru R2) in three of his four starts before winning the 2011 Masters. He often gives these small pointers that his game is close before popping. What a nice guy! Adding to his appeal, last time Shinnecock Hills hosted the U.S. Open, a South African won and there were two others near the top of the leaderboard.
Sungjae Im ($6100 DK / $7000 FD / $10200 FDRFT)
Searching the salary cellar for deep values, it’s tough to find this week with a limited number of golfers making it through the cut, a really tough course on hand, and one of the strongest fields in golf. However, this 20-year-old could provide those crucial salary savings. He leads the Web.com Tour money list, having won his first event and also adding two runner-up finishes to his resume. When I adjust his performance to the strength of field it still looks pretty solid. In this week’s field his performance grades similarly to names like Kevin Chappell, Brian Harman, and Jason Dufner. Those are all golfers with a much higher price tag. He is still young and doesn’t have any PGA TOUR experience but the tools are all there for him to contend or at least make the cut and then make a bit of noise.
Francesco Molinari ($7600 DK / $9200 FD / $13700 FDRFT)
It may not be sexy but to find the best value plays this week you may have to go against your gut instinct. On paper, Shinnecock Hills looks like a beast that will only cater to bombers. However, that is almost always the case with recent U.S. Open venues and there always seems to be a handful of short knockers that end up in the top 15. The Italian scared me a bit with his shoulder troubles/tweets but a recent Euro Tour trip yielded a WIN and RUNNER-UP finish. He’s never someone you feel comfortable with on the putting greens but he controls his ball better than almost anyone on TOUR. Moli should keep himself out of trouble this week and that alone should be worth a top 30 with upside for much more if the putter cooperates.
Rafa Cabrera Bello ($7200 DK / $10000 FD / $12700 FDRFT)
He’s paired with fellow Spaniards Sergio Garcia and Jon Rahm for the opening rounds. That alone makes him appealing. That trio should have a blast out there, even if the course is beating them up. However, I don’t think it will. I think they can drift off each other and all find some early success. As for Rafa himself, he’s finished top 20 in each of his last three worldwide starts. His only top 10 in a major came at The Open Championship and he also sports a Scottish Open win on his resume. Links golf appears to suit him well, making him a nice play here at the links-style layout of Shinnecock Hills. Scoring may be tough to come by but if there are eagles to be found the RCB is usually on that trail. He’s racked up nine eagles over his last 10 events. That may not sound like a lot until you realize that would have ranked 32nd on TOUR last season, for the entire season.
Matt Kuchar ($7600 DK / $10800 FD / $13900 FDRFT)
FanDuel has him more appropriately priced but he’s a steal on DK and FDRAFT. They say that U.S. Opens stress all facets of your game and Kuchar is great at picking up the pieces wherever they may fall. Having a bad iron day, he’ll probably chip in a few times. Struggling with the putter? He’ll probably stuff a few wedges to three feet. He’s the ultimate grinder and that’s why he has top 30s in seven of his last eight U.S. Open appearances. The harder the test the better as he ranks 10th in this field in terms of performance on hard courses versus his baseline.
Adam Scott ($7900 DK / $9800 FD / $14300 FDRFT)
The Aussie arrives with a few question marks but plenty of upside. First, he changed his caddie. He’s also on the fence about whether he’ll use the long putter or go back to a traditional putter. After a few hot putting weeks with the long putter, it’s since cooled off in a big way. Lots of times we see this where a change of any kind will provide a small boost in the short term. Perhaps that is what Scott is trying to accomplish here with the caddie change (ignite a short-term boost in performance). Entering the week, Scott has gained 4.7 or more strokes tee-to-green in each of his last four starts. He’s rattled off top 20s in three of his last four U.S. Open appearances and wouldn’t be surprising to see him pick up another this week.
Matt Jones ($6600 DK / $7400 FD / $11500 FDRFT)
It’s slim pickings in the deep value range this week but Jones provides a bit of upside. At the Byron Nelson he was recently T3 thru 54 holes (another links-style layout at Trinity Forest). He continued with that steady play, setting himself up at T19 at the midpoint last week in Memphis before a weekend tumble to T51. While a lot of the value I’ve already mentioned has been attached to plodders that may not be ideal course fits but are just too underpriced to ignore. Jones doesn’t fit that bill since he’s beat the field average in driving distance in each of his last 25 starts. Jones should be reserved for GPPs only but he does provide a nice option in extreme Stars n Scrubs lineups.
WEDNESDAY ADDITION
Patrick Cantlay ($7700 DK / $9700 FD / $13800 FDRFT)
The sloth was right on the fence in terms of cracking my list of targets but an AM/PM tee time has tipped him into my player pool. Has finally missed a few cuts this season but his good weeks are still very good. He was T2 heading into the final round in his most recent start. He was T9 thru 54 holes at THE PLAYERS, three starts ago. He did that on week where he lost 0.4 strokes approaching-the-green. His around-the-green play is currently as good as it’s ever been for him on TOUR. Cantlay will be very popular this week due to his recent spotlight at the Memorial but I think he deserves that attention.
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