WM Phoenix Open One and Done Strategy: Do Not Burn This Golfer (2026)

by PoolGenius (PoolGenius) Last Updated 2026-02-03 19:54:53

Editor’s Note: This is a guest post from PoolGenius, whose subscribers have reported more than $10,000,000 in pool winnings across all sports using their tools.

If you’re looking at the top WM Phoenix Open One and Done picks this week, the decision is less about finding the best golfer and more about avoiding a pick that will cost you later.

That’s because the Phoenix Open has a $9.6 million purse and about $1.66 million for the winner, placing it firmly in the second tier of prize money. That matters even more because this is the last non-Signature Event before a two-week stretch where the big names start showing up in high-purse tournaments.

The Shortcut to Optimal Golf One and Done Picks

The PoolGenius Golf One and Done Picks Tool pulls together win odds, performance data, and season-planning into one place.

More importantly, it addresses the question that causes the most early-season mistakes in One and Done pools: should you use a golfer now, or save them for later?

That decision is rarely obvious just by looking at odds or recent form. It also gets harder the further down the board you go.

Saving Scheffler and McIlroy for the biggest events is straightforward. The real question is what to do with the next tiers. For example, where do players like Aberg and Henley actually fit in your season plan?

That’s the gap the PoolGenius tool is designed to close.

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Phoenix Open Odds to Win

Here are the top golfers by outright win odds for the Phoenix Open as of Monday afternoon, Feb. 2:

Scottie Scheffler +225
Xander Schauffele +2000
Si Woo Kim +2200
Hideki Matsuyama +2200
Cameron Young +2200
Ben Griffin +2500
Sam Burns +2500
Viktor Hovland +2800
Rickie Fowler +3300
Maverick McNealy +3300
J.J. Spaun +3300

Scheffler is in a tier of his own on the odds board. He is also the best player in the world, won his last start, and has won twice here in the last four years.

That creates the biggest decision of the week.

Phoenix Open Golf One and Done Strategy

This is where the chalk vs. pass question actually matters.

Should You Take Scheffler?

On paper, Scheffler is the best pick. He commands a significant share of win equity and has proven he can win at TPC Scottsdale.

The issue is not whether he can win. It is whether this is the right week to spend him.

This is a second-tier purse event, and there are still bigger leverage spots ahead. In many One and Done formats, the best long-term strategy is to save the most valuable season-long assets for the highest-payout weeks, especially when the schedule is about to shift into a more top-heavy stretch.

That does not mean Scheffler is a bad pick. It means he is an expensive pick. In larger pools, or in formats where the top payouts are heavily concentrated, the opportunity cost can be real.

If you pass on Scheffler, the goal is to pivot toward golfers with meaningful win equity this week, but with less long-term opportunity cost than the very top tier.

Who To Pick Instead

This is where you need to be careful with generic advice.

Two people can look at the same odds board and both be right for their pool while picking completely different golfers. Pool size, payout structure, scoring, number of events, who you have already used, where you sit in the standings, segment prizes, and whether you are managing multiple entries can all change what the best pick actually is.

With that caveat, a few names fit the general profile of a strong pivot when you weigh win equity, future value, and likely draft popularity.

Best Phoenix Open One and Done Picks

Let’s break down some other golfers that will garner interest this week:

Xander Schauffele: Second-best odds this week, but he is usually too valuable to spend on a second-tier purse event like this. In many pools, that is a pass.

Rickie Fowler: A future value savings type of play. He has win equity this week, but he ranks much lower in season-long value than the true elites. That means using him here is less likely to sting later. The tradeoff is a wider range of outcomes.

Maverick McNealy: Likely to be one of the most popular picks, but the case is easy to see. He is coming off a top-10 last week and has strong results at this event in the past. In larger pools, the popularity spike can change the math quickly, so you may want to compare his path to other options.

Other names in the mix: Nick Taylor, Collin Morikawa, and Chris Gotterup are firmly in the mix as golfers with reasonable odds and profiles without a ton of future value. Cameron Young is also getting plenty of love, but depending on your pool format, he can be a little too valuable to burn in a second-tier purse event.

To see which of these paths actually makes sense for your pool, use the PoolGenius Golf One and Done Picks Tool to plan your season and get custom pick grades each week.

Your Unfair Advantage in Golf One and Done Pools

Most players start and end with win odds. But One and Done is not a betting card. It is an asset management game.

You need to weigh win equity this week, future value at higher purse events, how top-heavy payouts are, projected pick popularity, and your actual situation, including used golfers and standings.

The PoolGenius Golf One and Done Picks Tool handles all of that in one place. Once you enter your pool settings and used golfers, it generates weekly pick grades based on your context, plus a season planner that shows the downstream impact of using a golfer now versus saving him for later.

You also get projected pick popularity, so you can see when a good pick becomes a landmine because half your pool is about to make the same selection.

If you are playing in a Golf One and Done pool and you are not using a tool that accounts for context, you are leaving edge on the table.

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