Steelers vs. Dolphins Odds, Picks, and Prediction
Steelers vs. Dolphins Odds
| Steelers Odds | +7.5 |
| Dolphins Odds | -7.5 |
| Over/Under | 44.5 |
| Date | Sunday, Oct. 23 |
| Time | 8:20 p.m. |
| TV | NBC |
This evening’s edition of Sunday Night Football will feature the Pittsburgh Steelers and Miami Dolphins in a battle of two teams that currently sit outside of the AFC playoff picture. Entering Week 7, the Steelers are tied for the worst record in the AFC North and the Dolphins are tied for the worst record in the AFC East. In this matchup, oddsmakers are expecting Miami to come away with a victory, pricing the Dolphins as 7.5-point home favorites on the spread.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Last week, the Steelers upset the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in a narrow 20-18 victory, but it is doubtful as to whether this team is capable of replicating such a performance on the road in Week 7. Even in the win, Pittsburgh was outgained 304-270, had five less first downs than Tampa Bay, and failed to establish any semblance of a run attack. Even more concerning for the offense is the fact that Kenny Pickett will return to the field this evening. In three career NFL games, Pickett has thrown only one touchdown against four interceptions. Pittsburgh’s young starting signal caller is surrounded by one of the worst offensive lines, and one of the most inept ground games in the entire NFL. Expect this group to struggle to move the ball again on Sunday.
Defensively, the Steelers have ostensibly been somewhat formidable – holding Tom Brady and company to 18 points, and having not allowed 30 points to any other opponents. Yet, Pittsburgh ranks only 23rd overall in defensive EPA/play through six weeks of action. Facing one of the more creative offenses in the league on Sunday Night Football, it would not be surprising to see the Steelers struggle mightily in this spot.
Miami Dolphins
Tua Tagovailoa will return to the field this evening for the first time since being carted off of the field on Thursday Night Football against the Cincinnati Bengals at the end of September. A healthy Tagovailoa will be a welcome sight for a Miami team that went winless with him on the sidelines. During the first three weeks of the new campaign, the Dolphins led the NFL in EPA/play offensively. Across the subsequent three weeks, Miami ranked 28th in EPA/play. Expect Head Coach Mike McDaniel to continue scheming-open elite speed, and for this group to return to their early season success in this matchup.
Miami’s defense is also likely to benefit from Tagovailoa’s return to action. Across the last two weeks, the Dolphins’ offense combined to go 8-for-25 on third-down. An increase in third-down percentage should help keep this defense off of the field more, which is likely to keep them more fresh down the stretch of this contest. It certainly helps that the Dolphins have the benefit of playing a rookie quarterback on primetime.
Steelers vs. Dolphins Picks & Predictions
Assuming that Tagovailoa is healthy upon his return to action, the Miami Dolphins are unquestionably the better football team in all facets of this matchup. Tagovailoa is significantly more talented than Kenny Pickett, and Tagovailoa has the benefit of far superior skill players around him. Defensively, the Pittsburgh Steelers have less talent than Miami, in addition to having a more difficult matchup. If not for Tagovailoa’s injury keeping him off of the field for the past month, this line would likely be closer to 10 points. Expect the Dolphins to win this one comfortably.
PICK: Dolphins –7 (-120 via Wynn)
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