Sony Open One and Done Picks: Who to Use and Who to Save (2026)
Editor’s Note: This is a guest post from PoolGenius, whose subscribers have reported more than $10,000,000 in pool winnings across all sports using their tools.
If you’re researching Sony Open One and Done Picks this week while trying not to overthink it, start here.
The Sony Open purse is $9.1M ($1.57M to the winner), which sits in the lower half of non-Signature events. That’s why the goal is not just to pick a golfer who can win. It’s to pick a golfer you can afford to use now, without regretting it when bigger purses show up later.
The Shortcut to Smarter Golf One and Done Picks
The PoolGenius Golf One and Done Picks Optimizer combines odds, stats, projected pick popularity, and season-planning context in one place, so you can make a confident pick fast without guessing and without juggling tabs.
It also accounts for the part that trips most people up early in the season: whether a golfer is actually worth using now, or better saved for higher-purse spots later on.
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Top 7 Golfers by Sony Open Odds
Here are the top outright win odds as of Tuesday morning, January 13:
1. Russell Henley +1100
2. Hideki Matsuyama +1600
3. Ben Griffin +1800
4. J.J. Spaun +1800
5. Keegan Bradley +1800
6. Si Woo Kim +2000
7. Collin Morikawa +2000
It makes sense that Russell Henley is at the top of this list. He’s finished Top 10 here in three of the last four years, won at Waialae back in 2013, and also finished second after a playoff loss in 2022.
J.J. Spaun finished third here last year, and Keegan Bradley has posted a Top 6 finish in each of the last two years.
Other past winners in this field include Hideki Matsuyama (2022), Si Woo Kim (2023), and Nick Taylor (2025), although Taylor is further down the board at +3300. Nico Echavarria, who lost to Taylor in that 2025 playoff, is also back and priced at +3300.
Sony Open Projected Pick Popularity
Popularity is not everything, but it matters. In larger pools, you want to know whether you’re picking a strong play that a few people also like, or a true chalk pick that caps your ability to separate.
Here are the projected most popular Sony Open One and Done picks this week, according to the PoolGenius Golf One and Done Tool:
1. Keegan Bradley (about 12%)
2. J.J. Spaun (about 10%)
3. Russell Henley (just over 8%)
4. Nick Taylor (around 7%)
5. Si Woo Kim (around 5.5%)
6. Hideki Matsuyama (around 5.5%)
As you can see, there’s quite a bit of overlap between the golfers with the shortest outright odds and the ones projected to be the most popular picks. Some of that is obvious. But there’s a delicate balance here, since guys like Spaun and Henley may be more valuable later in higher-purse events. We’ll get to that in the next section.
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Best Sony Open Golf One and Done Picks
This is where people get tripped up. The best pick isn’t necessarily the golfer with the best odds.
Should You Take the Chalk?
Henley, Spaun, and Griffin all look great at the top of the board, but they’re also the type of golfers you’re very likely to want later when the purses jump, and one pick carries more leverage.
In a standard One and Done season you make 31 picks, and more than half of those tournaments will have bigger purses than the Sony Open. So even if one of those top names is a strong win candidate, you still have to ask whether this is the right week to spend them. In many pool setups, it can be wise to look elsewhere.
Four Other Picks Worth Considering
With that in mind, here are four strong options with cleaner risk-reward profiles.
1. Keegan Bradley is the closest thing to chalk, but not at a prohibitive level, and he’s finished 6th and 2nd here the last two years.
2. Si Woo Kim is a past champion at Waialae with real win equity and typically less “save him for later” pressure than the biggest names.
3. Collin Morikawa has lower projected popularity and is more of a swing since he hasn’t played this event recently, but he’s viable if you think a rebound is coming and you can live with the future value tradeoff.
4. Maverick McNealy is a strong “fits this week” option too, good enough to contend, but usually not someone you feel forced to reserve for the biggest purse events later.
If you want to dial this in to your exact pool format and risk tolerance, the PoolGenius tool will sort the best options for your entry in seconds.
Get Your Sony Open Pick (& Season Plan) in One Place
If you’re serious about Golf One and Done, the edge is not just picking a good golfer. It’s picking the right golfer at the right time, based on your pool’s rules and the weeks that actually matter.
The PoolGenius Golf One and Done Picks Tool tailors pick grades to your exact format, then lets you look ahead with a season planner so you can see what you’re giving up when you burn a top golfer early.
It’s the fastest way to make a confident pick now and avoid regret later.