2021-22 Premier League Odds, Preview: Manchester City Reloads for Title Defense
European glory continues to elude Manchester City, but there is little question Pep Guardiola’s team is the class of England.
Five Premier League titles in the last 10 years – three coming in Guardiola’s five seasons with the club – four straight League Cups and a FA Cup title have been part of an unprecedented run of success for the club rival Manchester United manager Sir Alex Ferguson once sarcastically labeled, “the noisy neighbours.”
Manchester blue remains in the ascendancy, and it has left the rest of the Premier League feeling blue trying to deal with the imperious play of the Cityzens. Once more, fellow “Big Six” rivals are best-suited to that daunting task as Liverpool, Chelsea, and Manchester United are the top contenders.
While Chelsea may have something to hold over City by virtue of beating them in the Champions League final in May, manager Thomas Tuchel will have to wring more match-to-match consistency from the Blues over the course of 38 matches in his first full season in charge to have any chance of seeing the Premier League trophy lifted at Stamford Bridge for the first time since 2017.
SCOUTING THE DEFENDING CHAMPS
Manchester City started the season slow and was eight points out of first place in mid-December following a 1-1 draw at home to West Bromwich Albion. Whatever Guardiola said in the locker room or put forth on the practice pitch after that result took, because City ripped off 15 straight victories to seize control of the title race and finished 12 points clear of United.
There have been some changes heading into this season. The franchise’s all-time leading goal-scorer Sergio Aguero has moved onto Barcelona, leaving a void in terms of goal-scoring nous inside the penalty area. Though Gabriel Jesus is a capable goal-scorer, he has yet to be a consistent one, which is why Guardiola has tried to move heaven and earth to bring Harry Kane from Tottenham Hotpsur to the Etihad.
But even the bottomless well of money who is Manchester City owner Sheikh Mansour has blanched at Spurs’ £160 million valuation of Kane, though this story is far from fully written. Spurs and City open the season against each other Sunday, and with more than two weeks of transfer deadline madness to follow, Kane could still find himself in a lighter shade of blue by Labor Day and receiving top-drawer service from all the wonderful playmakers Guardiola has at his disposal.
That includes midfielder Jack Grealish, the first £100 million transfer in Premier League history following his move from Aston Villa. Grealish’s willingness to take on defenders with the dribble on the wing or behind his forwards gives City both a distinctive and yet another dangerous offensive calculus as he looks to slot into a group of playmakers that includes Kevin De Bruyne, Raheem Sterling, Riyad Mahrez, Phil Foden, Ilkay Gundogan, and Bernardo Silva.
There is little value to be gained from picking City to win the title – the best offering is -139 at BetRivers and goes as high as -165 at FanDuel. Instead, taking the OVER of 86.5 points at -110 at DraftKings is a far more appealing option.
First, look at City’s quality compared to the rest of the league. The Cityzens will be favored to win every match save the trips to Anfield against Liverpool, Stamford Bridge versus Chelsea, and across town at Old Trafford versus United.
Some opponents will be mentally defeated before kickoff knowing they will concede 70 percent possession and defend the entire match, most opponents do not have the squad depth in their 18-man matchday lineups, and practically every team lining up against City do not have the talent to match any first XI Guardiola throws out for any given match.
Additionally, one of the dirty secrets of the Premier League is that teams in the bottom half of the 20-strong league are more concerned beating up each other to avoid relegation and keep that television rights money coming in than harboring title aspirations.
City should — emphasis on should — claim at least 90 percent of the 60 points in matches against the bottom 10 teams. That leaves 33 points from the remaining 18 matches to clear 86.5 points, a reasonable target of 1.83 points per match from those contests given nine of them are at home.
Though the lack of a target striker is a slight concern, Guardiola has deployed a false nine on many occasions, and oh by the way, having the world’s greatest passer of the ball in De Bruyne playing that position renders most of that worry moot.
How Grealish and De Bruyne co-exist in the attacking third is the biggest factor in this pick. If their partnership works, City make a run at 100 points for the second time in four seasons. If not, then you may be sweating out the point total in an actual title race.
LIVERPOOL RELOAD AND RETOOL
For the second straight year, I am on board with the Liverpool 1/3 1-2 play, which can be found at +550 at BetRivers. The belief is there is no way Jurgen Klopp’s backline will be so injury-riddled that he will be forced into using TWENTY different center-back pairings like he did in 2020-21. Regardless of who was thrown out there, almost all of them were not named Virgil Van Dijk, and the towering Dutchman makes the team dangerous in attack via set pieces in addition to more sturdy defensively.
The Reds are also one of the few teams who can also go body for body with Manchester City, which will bode well considering they will also require squad rotation with Champions League responsibilities. The feeling is this team is closer to the 99-point squad that won the 2020 title than the 69-point one that finished third last term, when Liverpool looked more disjointed than a team lacking quality.
There is some concern Liverpool could start slow with strikers Mo Salah and Sadio Mane representing Egypt and Senegal, respectively, in the African Cup of Nations. But Liverpool will still have Diogo Jota and Roberto Firmino as well as Thiago Alcantara and Curtis Jones in attacking support and one of the Premier League’s best shot-stoppers in Alisson.
Chelsea and Manchester United will make this a challenging pick to deliver, but Klopp has yet to underachieve since arriving at Anfield, and the expectation is that will continue in 2021-22.
CAN CHELSEA “MOUNT” A CHALLENGE?
Chelsea’s Champions League title win over Manchester City in Portugal was no fluke — Tuchel also got the better of Guardiola in the FA Cup semifinals and in the regular season at the Etihad before denying City its first taste of European glory.
The Pensioners are expected to have one-time striker Romelu Lukaku back in the fold — £98 million later after his 10 appearances for the team from 2011-14 preceded productive spells with Everton, Manchester United, and most recently Serie A winner Inter Milan. The Belgium international discarded the reputation of being a flat-track bully with 47 goals in 72 matches for the Italian side and would give Tuchel the consistent striker he’s wanted since Timo Werner has yet to find a deep comfort level.
He would join a potent attack that also features American Christian Pulisic, Hakim Zyech, and Kai Haavertz — though any or perhaps all of the trio must improve to augment playmaker Mason Mount in order to make a title run. Chelsea’s defense is sneaky good in the spine — N’Golo Kante is a relentless ball-winning machine in the midfield, veteran Thiago Silva remains quality in central defense, and keeper Edouard Mendy matched a Champions League record with nine clean sheets.
If Liverpool does not float your boat, an intriguing play can be found at FanDuel, which is offering +230 for a Manchester City-Chelsea 1-2 finish.
THE BEST OF THE REST PLAYS
After surveying multiple sportsbooks, here are some other plays worth considering with the start of the season coming up Friday.
Leeds United OVER 53.5 points (-110 at DraftKings)
Leeds United to finish better than West Ham United head-to-head (-125 at BetRivers)
Leeds United Top 6 finish (+600 at DraftKings)
I am bullish on Season 2 of Murderball at Elland Road. Leeds made a spectacular return to the Premier League after a 17-year absence, finishing ninth on 59 points as Marco Bielsa’s well-drilled and physically exhausting side ran opposing sides out of the park more than they got into trouble against higher-end opponents.
Ever the intense workaholic, Bielsa spent the entire offseason in England plotting ways to improve Leeds, and the performance of midfield engine Kalvin Phillips for England at the Euros was a revelation on the international level. Patrick Bamford again leads the line after scoring 17 goals, but he feels just out of reach as a sleeper pick for the Golden Boot despite the tempting offers of +2500 at PointsBet, BetRivers, and Caesars.
The element of surprise is no longer on Bielsa’s side, but there are few better tacticians in the Premier League on a match-to-match basis. Also, one huge plus for Leeds this season – COVID-19 mitigation continuing to be permitting – will be a full throng of fans at Elland Road offering support. There may be some regression, but that home support will push Leeds beyond the 29 points earned there in 2020-21.
The top-six finish is an aggressive play, but the combination of West Ham backsliding, Bielsa outfoxing Arteta in matchups with Arsenal, and Spurs doing Spursy things – especially if Kane moves on – are all in play to offer every chance of it happening.
Crystal Palace fewest Premier League goals (+550 at BetRivers)
In the past two seasons, Crystal Palace has ranked 14th and 17th for goals scored among the 17 teams that remained in the top flight, and the 72 goals in 76 matches over that span speak for themselves. Palace have a new manager in Patrick Vieira, but the same old faces in attack in Wilfried Zaha, Jordan Ayew, and Christian Benteke.
Zaha scored a career-best 11 goals last term and is an absolute handful, but he’s also mercurial. The next transfer deadline window that comes and goes without his name being mentioned to leave Selhurst Park will be the first one. If he leaves, be it in August or January, Palace has the potential to collapse on itself like a house of cards, and an already shaky offense with little support in midfield will further struggle to produce.
West Ham United UNDER 49.5 points (+105 at PointsBet)
With all apologies to Iron Maiden bassist and Hammers super fan Steve Harris, I am not “upping the Irons” this season. To be fair, West Ham clearly earned its top-six finish last year that awarded direct entry into Europa League’s group stage as David Moyes wrung the absolute most from his squad in claiming 65 points and finishing second among London squads to Chelsea.
But the reward of Thursday nights on the European continent and Sundays in the Premier League is a key reason to be bearish on West Ham, coupled with a murderous stretch of schedule from late October through Christmas that sees the side face Liverpool and Manchester City in addition to London derbies with Chelsea and Arsenal in a five-week stretch.
West Ham have a formidable midfield duo in Tomas Soucek and Declan Rice, while summer signing Alphonse Arreola is an upgrade from Lukasz Fabianski between the sticks. But there was little in the way of increasing the outfield squad depth needed to survive the European grind. And if West Ham struggle in Europe, that could bleed into its domestic play similar to what Burnley endured a few seasons back.
Leicester City to finish better than Arsenal head-to-head (-112 at BetRivers)
The gap between newly minted Community Shield winner Leicester City and Arsenal was five points and four places last season, but it also hides the fact the Foxes were in Champions League position for most of the 2020-21 term until a late swoon allowed both Liverpool and Chelsea to pip them for third and fourth.
Brendan Rodgers’ side does not have as much a depth problem as West Ham when it comes to navigating the Europa League grind, and it also has better attacking talent. Striker Jamie Vardy may be nearing 35, but he will still run opposing backlines ragged with his relentless industry and get scruffy goals that lead to points. He will be joined by summer signing Patson Daka, who displayed a similar work rate for Red Bull Salzburg.
If James Maddison stays healthy and a larger side does not make a Godfather offer – two very big ifs – Leicester has one of the more dynamic No. 10s in the league, and he has support in the form of Wilfred Ndidi as a destroyer and fellow playmakers Harvey Barnes and Youri Tielemans. Losing defender Wesley Fofana to a broken leg was a tough blow, but the Foxes still have a standout keeper in talisman Kasper Schmeichel.
But this pick is equal parts pro-Leicester City and anti-Arsenal. The Gunners have yet to really form an identity under Mikael Arteta, though that is not wholly the fault of the team’s former classy midfielder over his first 18 months. The north London side has had to clear some dead weight in terms of players who do not fit the system and COVID mitigations have affected instilling said identity.
There is still talent sprinkled throughout the roster, and £50 million summer signing and centerback Ben White must bring immediate stability to a defense that looked like a clown show at times. To use a Ted Lasso-ism, the hope is Bukayo Saka has treated his penalty miss for England at the Euros like a goldfish, otherwise it could linger and weigh on his confidence.
This pick comes down to the sum and its parts – Leicester City’s sum currently looks greater than its parts while Arsenal’s parts look bigger than the whole.
Raheem Sterling to win the Golden Boot (+2000 at DraftKings, BetRivers, and Barstool Sportsbook)
This is a pick on a limb given Kane’s final destination is still unknown, Guardiola’s maddening random squad rotations, and the ridiculous amount of talent on Manchester City besides Sterling who can fire the ball into the net, but there is also little downside to taking a flyer on the England international.
He is coming off a stellar performance in helping the Three Lions reach the Euro final, which also addresses the concerns of being able to play alongside Kane. Much like Grealish, Sterling brings a unique dimension to City – though for Sterling it comes via his pace.
While City’s best stretch of play came last term with more passing and less running, someone has to do the running, and Sterling can find those gaps in defenses to be on the receiving end of what will be high-quality service.
Sterling had a down 2020-21 for City – he finished with 14 goals in 49 matches across all competitions after potting 79 in 149 over the previous three seasons. The 26-year-old looks to have ticked all the prerequisite boxes to have a breakout season that garners international acclaim, and there is low risk/high reward here as a top-five overall option.
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