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Well, well, well! I didn’t expect the Mavs to live to fight another day, but they came out and completely blew the doors off the Celtics in Friday night’s Game 4. Dallas is still facing an uphill climb with a 3-1 series deficit heading back to Boston for Game 5 tonight, but you never know what can happen. The Celtics are 6.5-point favorites tonight with another chance to clinch the title this evening.

Let’s take a look at some squares and build a winner over on PrizePicks.

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Now, let’s go through our NBA predictions to help make a PrizePicks entry for today.

NBA PrizePicks Predictions Today

Maxi Kleber More/Less Than 2.5 Points

I didn’t wake up this morning expecting to write about the scoring prowess of Maxi Kleber, but sometimes life throws you curveballs. Kleber was held to just 43 appearances for the Mavs during the regular season thanks to a few injuries, and he’s even been banged up so far in the postseason.

After playing a fairly minor role to this point, Kleber came out of nowhere to log 23 minutes off the bench in Game 4. And it’s not like he benefited from garbage time in the blowout, as Kleber didn’t even see the floor in the 4th quarter. About 14 of those 23 minutes came in the 1st half, so getting Kleber some more time on the floor was one of the apparent adjustments Jason Kidd made to the rotation after falling behind 3-0 in the series.

We have Kleber projected to play 18 minutes tonight. He’s not exactly a scoring machine while he’s out there – he’s scored all of 7 points through the first 4 games – but there’s clearly a path to Maxi getting up over 20 minutes again in this one. This could be a sweat, but sweats can be fun, right?

Luka Doncic More/Less Than 32.5 Points

Everyone on earth apparently saw the clip of Brian Windhorst trashing Luka Doncic following the Mavs’ Game 3 defeat. It sure seems like Luka Doncic himself saw it, too. The face of the Mavs’ franchise came out and promptly destroyed the Celtics in Game 4, finishing with 29 points, 5 rebounds, and 5 assists in just 33 minutes of action.

Luka has only topped 40 minutes once in the series to this point with several games having been decided by lopsided margins. Doncic has yet to top 32 real points in any of the 4 games despite his usual heavy usage. Luka has attempted at least 21 field goals in every game, but he hasn’t been all that efficient thanks to a hard-nosed Boston defensive effort.

Dallas refusing to be swept was nice, but I’m not expecting them to go into Boston and force the series back to Dallas. Doncic may struggle to get going offensively in this one.

Daniel Gafford More/Less Than 4.5 Rebounds + Assists

Daniel Gafford averaged 7.6 rebounds per game during the regular season, though his numbers did tail off a bit following his trade from Washington to Dallas. The big man has also seen his rebounding average dip to just 5.8 in the postseason, as he’s averaging one fewer minute than he did during the season post-trade.

Gafford played well in Game 4, but he only logged 10 minutes in a starting role. Dereck Lively played 22 off the bench, while Kleber also saw some time at the 5. The game was also a blowout, so we currently have Gafford projected for 20 minutes, assuming tonight’s game stays more competitive.

Gafford only has 2 assists in the entire series, so he’s going to have to be assertive on the glass in order to get there for us tonight. If the minutes are what we expect them to be, I like his chances.

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About the Author

tcsmith031
Taylor Smith (tcsmith031)

Based in Southern California, Taylor Smith (aka tcsmith031) has been working for RotoGrinders since 2018 in a number of different capacities. In addition to contributing written content for NBA, MLB, and NFL, Taylor is also a member of the projections/alerts team and makes regular appearances as an analyst on NBA Crunch Time. Follow Taylor on Twitter – @TayeBojangles