PrizePicks NBA Props: Monday, March 11th
Hey everyone, welcome to the weekly PrizePicks article here on RotoGrinders. This is the first time we are running this article and we are planning on having one come out every Monday.
Now, if you haven’t played on PrizePicks before, it’s a fairly simple concept. You simply pick two, three, or four players and try to figure out if they are going to go over or under the projected points total that PrizePicks posts, and you will get paid accordingly. What this article is going to do is give you some of my favorite props over on PrizePicks and give you some of my favorite correlation plays that will give you that extra little edge to make some money.
The Big Discrepancies
Currently, PrizePicks has Paul projected for 38.2 points, while the RG projections and most models have him projected for 41. Looking at his previous game logs, he hasn’t topped this total in any of the last three matchups, but two of those three matchups were not easy ones, and prior to that he hit this total in three of the last four. He draws a matchup against the Hornets, who rank average or below average in DvA, DEFF, and DRPM vs the point guard position. Take the over.
PrizePicks currently has Griffin projected for 41.2, while the RG projections have him projected for 42.75. This may seem like the better choice is to go over considering that it is a good matchup and Griffin that good of a player, but more often than not, he is going to end up with less than 40 points in this matchup. Looking at his game log, we see that he has failed to meet the 40-point threshold in five of his last six games. He does have upside for 60 in this type of matchup, but there is a difference between average points and median points. Expect Griffin to go for high 30s in this matchup the majority of the time, with an occasional 50+ point outburst in there. Take the under.
The Correlation Plays
Counting on a CHA/HOU blowout
The spread for the CHA/HOU game is currently set at 8, and this game could get real ugly in a hurry. If Houston ends up blowing out the Hornets, then there’s a very real chance that Walker and Batum end up not coming close to their projected points totals. Walker is currently set at 42 points, while Batum is currently set at 29.4 points. If the Hornets are completely out of the game by the time the fourth quarter ends up coming up, there’s a decent chance that both Walker and Batum end up sitting in the fourth. If both these guys end up not getting run in the final quarter, it’s fairly safe to say that they will not hit the over. Take both these players for the under and then either pair them with the Chris Paul over, or with a player from a different game and hope for that 5x payout.
The Griffin/Drummond pairing
Whenever the Pistons seem to hit the court, you know that if the game stays close, either Griffin or Drummond are both going to go off for a big game. Looking at the past three games, the two players have completely flip-flopped who has a dominant game. As I stated earlier, I think that Griffin’s projection is too high, and a matchup versus the Nets is a dream matchup for a center. Drummond currently has a projection of over 50, but I think that’s pretty easily attainable here. I think the smart move is to take pair the under for Griffin and the over for Drummond.
Good luck on all your props tonight!