Noto and STL's PrizePicks PGA Strategy: Arnold Palmer Invitational

Hey, Grinders! Welcome to our first PGA strategy discussion for PrizePicks!

PrizePicks has golf contests posted for the first round of the Arnold Palmer Invitational. You need to pick two, three, or four golfers and project whether they will go over or under the projected score that PrizePicks has set. The more players you select, the better your potential winnings become. Note that this is set based on the ROUND, so the initial contests apply to Thursday golf only.

Editor’s Note: Head to PrizePicks now for a FREE entry and a 50% match instantly on your first deposit up to $1,000!

The golf scoring for PrizePicks is very similar to DraftKings, with three points for a birdie, eight points for an eagle, a half point for a par, and a negative half point for a bogey. There are four par fives on the Bay Hill Course, all of which check in at 575 yards or less on the scorecard. There will be some eagle opportunities available on those holes, and the eight points that you get for an eagle are very valuable. That will be a key to players going OVER the projected scores on PrizePicks here.

Weather is expected to be relatively benign on Thursday, with winds in the 5-10 MPH range. We should expect normal scoring. This course is a little easier than the one we saw last week, but it’s still no pushover at times. In general, though, we would lean toward “OVER” marks with golfers where we are on the fence.

With that in mind, here are a few of the Round 1 options to consider:

Note – PrizePicks does occasionally move the O/U lines a little bit, so your mileage may vary slightly from the totals shown here.

STLCardinals84’s Favorite Picks

Rory McIlroy OVER 20 – There are almost no red flags with McIlroy right now. He hasn’t hit the winner’s circle yet this year, but Rory seems rejuvenated with a few more stateside starts under his belt. He has logged four starts so far in 2019. His worst finish in those four starts? Fifth place. That’s even more impressive considering that he hasn’t been scoring as much as he usually does on the par fives. However, he still ranks 6th in driving distance so far this year, and he has finished 4th and 1st here over the last two years. 20 is a lofty fantasy total, but I think he can get to five birdies and/or an eagle in his round, and he’s my pick to win this week.

Brooks Koepka UNDER 18.5 – Koepka was in the mix last week at the Honda Classic, but his history at Bay Hill isn’t quite as kind. He has only played here twice over the last four years, and those starts have resulted in a missed cut and a withdrawal. I want to see some results before I hop on board, and I expect a slow start. If he gets off to a good start, we can reconsider his prospects for future rounds.

Charles Howell OVER 17 – He doesn’t get the same kind of buzz now that we saw a few months ago, but it seems to be because we are all taking his steady production for granted. Howell still hasn’t missed a cut since November, and his last three starts have gone for top 20 finishes. He is also playing here for the 19th time. That’s a lot of trips to Bay Hill, and that experience has to be worth something. He ranks inside the top 50 on the PGA Tour in all three key metrics I am looking at this week, including a top five rank in ball striking. He is a birdie maker when he is on his game, and this seems like a very reasonable point total for him to eclipse on PrizePicks.

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Francesco Molinari UNDER 17 – I am generally a big fan of Molinari, but his game is not in peak form right now. We haven’t seen much from him since his hot run over the late summer of 2018, and he ranks 100th or worse on the PGA Tour in essentially all the key metrics I am looking at for this week’s event. That includes an alarming 174th ranking in ball striking. I don’t think he will score enough on this course to eclipse the 17 point mark in Round 1.

It will be really interesting to see how the strategy evolves with the PrizePicks format. On days where weather looks to be bad, we can perhaps look at more UNDER plays. On days where weather is sublime, we can look at more OVER plays. The key will be staying on top of trends and what PrizePicks does with the O/U lines. This is a fun format, so be sure to check it out!

Notorious’ Favorite Picks

Bubba Watson UNDER 17 – I’m leaning toward more unders than overs for Thursday, as Bay Hill is typically a tough test of golf. There is a lot of water in play, which brings big numbers to the table. Watson is one of those golfers that plays well at the same venues each and every year. We often say to target him only on “Bubba tracks” and this is clearly not one of them. In his last three appearances here, he has a T66, a T34, and a WD. In order for him to reach 17 fantasy points using the PrizePicks scoring, he basically needs a round of three under (11 pars, five birdies, two bogeys = 17.5). I’ll take my chances with the under, especially since he’s teeing off in the afternoon where the wind is forecasted to pick up.

Phil Mickelson UNDER 17.5 – I’m using a similar argument for the under on Mickelson as I did with the under on Watson. While Mickelson’s game does translate to different golf courses a little better, he has chosen to skip this event each of the last five years. He is likely playing this event due to the new rules that golfers have to play new tournaments every so often. The last time we saw Mickelson was at the WGC-Mexico where he lost three strokes on approaches and a stroke on the greens. Like Watson, he also tees off in the afternoon where winds are expected to pick up a bit on Thursday.

Hideki Matsuyama OVER 18 – There was some confusion on whether or not Hideki was going to withdraw this week, but it turns out the PGA Tour got him and Talor Gooch mixed up. As of this moment, Hideki is set to tee it up on Thursday morning. He has been on a tear with his irons over the last five events, gaining close to 20 strokes on the field. He’s a good total driver of the ball and is ranked second in this field in strokes gained tee to green over the last 50 rounds. He’s also ranked second in the key par three scoring range (200-225 yards). I like his chances to get off to a hot start on a course where he has never missed a cut.

Louis Oosthuizen UNDER 17.5 – Oosthuizen is one of the most volatile golfers in the field, so I never mind shorting him in events outside of the majors. He has lost strokes off the tee in both of his events in North America this year and he missed the cut at this event by a wide margin last season. Perhaps the best reason to like the under on Oosty is that he is ranked 72nd in the field in birdie or better percentage and 52nd in par five scoring. Fantasy golf is all about making birdies and eagles and historically, Oosthuizen has been better on courses where par is a good score.

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