Raiders vs. Packers Showdown NFL DFS Lineup Advice for DraftKings & FanDuel
Week 5 concludes with an inter-conference matchup, as the Packers travel to Las Vegas to take on the Raiders, with the Raiders favored by 2.5 points in a game with a 45.5 point total. There has been some major injury news on both sides, with Davante Adams listed as questionable coming into this game (but seeming likely to go) and news breaking midday Monday that Aaron Jones is unlikely to play. The Jones news in particular could shake up the DFS contests, with pricing for both sites set as though Jones would be in. We have the regular large prizes up for grabs in the single-game contests tonight, and I’m here with some quick lineup advice on how to get an edge on the field in our FanDuel and DraftKings single-game DFS entries.
Raiders vs. Packers Showdown DFS Lineup Advice
How I Plan to Beat the Field
The Raiders are always an interesting team for the single-game format, with such a large portion of their offense concentrated among Davante Adams, Josh Jacobs, and new this season, Jakobi Meyers. The Aaron Jones injury (assuming Jones is out) adds to this element, with Jacobs and Adams the only non-QB players priced above $8,200 on DraftKings and $12,500 on FanDuel. Jacobs and Adams also show up as two of the three highest projected-owned players in the MVP/CPT spots, and this makes sense with them making up the bulk of the Raiders offense and the team playing as a home favorite. But it creates an interesting contrarian angle to play for our single-game contests.
With the spread on this game sitting at only 2.5 points, I’m estimating that the field will play lineups that overrate the Raiders chances of winning this game. The implied odds for the moneyline (Packers +110) still give Green Bay a 45% chance or higher of winning this game, but I’m expecting lineups to be dominated by Raiders. AJ Dillon is now showing up as an outstanding value if he receives the bulk of the work, and he will likely be looked at as the key value piece that allows you to fit in both Jacobs and Adams (possibly along with Meyers and one of the QBs). This could lead to excessive duplication in these single-game contests and makes lineup differentiation more important than ever.
I’m interested in taking an overweight stance on Packers players – with an emphasis on both the passing game and the back-up running game. Christian Watson returned from injury last week and scored a touchdown, and he could put up an even stronger game in his second game of live action. With ownership and projections focusing on Raiders players, Watson could be the odd man out on rosters despite the Jones injury likely increasing his share of the Packers offense.
I’ll also be interested in the Packers back-up RBs. While Dillon will likely garner most of the ownership due to his value price of $4,600 on DK and $10,000 on FD, he disappointed in the two weeks that Jones missed, putting up only 88 yards and 1 reception (for 8 yards). Patrick Taylor has historically operated as the 3rd RB, however, Emanuel Wilson led all players in rushing yards in the preseason. Wilson is a player I’m very interested in being over the field on in case the Packers are looking to split work more than we expect or even make a mid-game change.
Single-Game Rule I’m Willing to Break
While we’ll want to set some rules in LineupHQ if we’re building multiple lineups, setting our rules too strictly can prevent us from getting to winning lineups. Each week, I’ll aim to hit on “rules that can be broken” for our lineups.
This week I’ll be willing – and may even be looking forward to – playing two running backs from the same team in the same DFS lineup. The injury to Aaron Jones makes AJ Dillon an excellent value on this slate, but I’ll also be carefully checking the inactive list and roster transactions that Green Bay makes leading up to this game. Patrick Taylor has operated as the back-up RB behind Dillon, however, he has been shuttling back and forth between the practice squad. Emanuel Wilson is a rookie who had a standout preseason, leading the NFL in rushing yards. However, he has played behind Taylor when both are active. Both Taylor and Wilson are the absolute minimum on DraftKings ($200), with Taylor $6,000 on FanDuel and Wilson $5,500.
If both players are active I would pair either of them with Dillon, as they would be the strongest near-minimum plays on both sites. If only one of the two is active, I plan to be heavily overweight that player and will make sure I have a mix of lineups where they are paired with Dillon on some lineups and are the sole Green Bay RB on others.
DraftKings Strategy
The first key difference between DraftKings versus FanDuel is the salary multiplier for the Captain position. It’s not just that a Captain’s fantasy points get the 1.5x multiplier, but his salary counts 1.5x against our cap as well. The next important consideration is the difference in the scoring rules. DraftKings gives a full point per reception instead of a half point on FanDuel, making receivers and pass-catching running backs ideal for the DraftKings format.
On DraftKings, the prices for the Packers’ running backs are particularly appealing. Dillon is the cheapest player priced above the defensive units and kickers, and the back-ups, Taylor and/or Wilson, are both priced at the bare minimum. That is simply too cheap for players that should be on the field and have a reasonable shot at a touchdown. Jordan Love is also priced behind both Davante Adams and Josh Jacobs, which is a bit too cheap for a QB who can put some rushing yards on the board and has already scored 2 rushing touchdowns on the season (and who may now be playing without his lead running back).
Among Raiders players, Jakobi Meyers stands out as a bargain, particularly in a full-point-per-reception format. Meyers has double-digit targets in two of his three games this season, but at $7,000, he is priced below both Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs, two players he is more expensive than on FanDuel.
FanDuel Strategy
The flip side to the DraftKings scoring is the half-point awarded for receptions on FanDuel and no salary multiplier in the MVP position. This can make it very difficult to get away from the highest projected player at the MVP spot but makes it critical to have some intelligent differentiation in the AnyFLEX spots.
On FanDuel, our pricing is a bit different, with Jordan Love priced as the most expensive player in the game and not as much of a discount on the Packers RBs. This makes me a bit more interested in the Packers receivers. Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs are both priced below the Raiders top four players (including their QB) and are just $1,000-$2,000 more than Dillon. Luke Musgrave is also very appealing at just $8,000 on FanDuel (priced below both of the kickers and defensive units) and may see more red zone targets with Jones likely to sit.
This should be a good MNF matchup that is projected to be high scoring, and it has enough big-name fantasy players and uncertainty to make our contests interesting. Good luck to everyone tonight…and enjoy!