Primetime Parlay: Rams vs. 49ers Same Game Parlay Picks and Props
Throughout the NFL season, this article will use ScoresAndOdds’ ParlayIQ tool to examine building same game parlays across various sports betting sites for primetime NFL matchups. We will examine stats, roster news, trends, player props and betting odds across sportsbooks to pick the most profitable combination of outcomes for primetime games. Now let’s build our Rams vs. 49ers same game parlay for Monday Night Football.
Happy Monday, Grinders! Normally, that is a tough ask throughout the year. Goodbye weekend, hello workweek. Yet, Mondays feel a bit different when Monday Night Football offers a good matchup for our indulgence. The San Francisco 49ers host the Los Angeles Rams in an early pivotal matchup in the NFC West division. The Rams and 49ers are the only two teams built to win this division. Who will emerge with an ever important division win?
Rams vs. 49ers Same Game Parlay Preview
The Rams and 49ers met three times last season, with the Rams winning when it mattered most in the NFC Championship game. FanDuel Sportsbook likes the 49ers at home by 1.5 points at the time of this writing. The implied game total is pretty low at 42.5 points — likely due to the typical strength of both defenses.
The line has not budged much throughout the course of the week. Per SAO, the line reached as high as -2.5 before coming back down to the initial offering. Further, 65% of spread bets went to the Rams, while 54% of the money lies on the 49ers. And despite 68% of bets on the over throughout the week, the 87% of money siding with the under dropped this total five points. Perhaps, we have an opportunity to buy?
As for injuries, the Rams come into the game mostly healthy, only missing Van Jefferson to a long-term injury. On the other side, tackle Trent Williams and RB Tyrion Davis-Price will miss this Monday Night Football contest — both with ankle injuries. The Williams injury is a big concern for the offensive line, while the lack of Davis-Price further solidifies the workload of Jeff Wilson Jr.
Let’s build our parlay and open with the main piece for our script.
Rams-49ers Same Game Parlay Picks
Over 42.5 Points
With the number plummeting five points over the course of the week, I think we have an opportunity to play the over and build a script that fits this scenario. The ParlayIQ simulations agree, as 65% of the more than 4,000 simulations expect this total to exceed 42.5 points. The price that should be offered based on the sims is -186. So, unlike yesterday’s failed same game parlay, starting our parlay with this leg nearly guarantees we will see a big boost to expected value.
We will open with the over and now look at adding legs that correlate with that type of script.
Cam Akers Over 43.5 Rushing Yards
If we expect points, we need some offense. In a big divisional game, the simulations and projections at RotoGrinders like Cam Akers to finally emerge as the alpha in the Los Angeles backfield.
Projecting Cam Akers at more than 14 carries, we have a projection north of 50 rushing yards. The simulations love this combination too, with 43% featuring both of our opening legs. While the running game normally slows the game down, this total is so low that both teams can balance the run and pass and still make explosive plays.
I am admittedly a bit worried about a normally stalwart 49ers’ defense and the chance that Akers aggravates Sean McVay before the game. That said, we will put narrative blinders on and roll with the sims again for our second leg.
Jeff Wilson Over 55.5 Rushing Yards
As the only experienced running back left in this backfield, discounting Deebo Samuel, Jeff Wilson is going to see the lion’s share of the 49ers’ rushing workload. Wilson has very little competition in a backfield that will get a nice share of work. Given the Rams’ defensive front, a balanced rushing attack can help slow the pass rush down for Jimmy Garoppolo.
Last weekend, Wilson had 12 carries for 75 yards after carrying the ball 18 times in Week 2. Wilson is an explosive play waiting to happen, as the 49ers’ rushing scheme often finds big gaps for the decisive back. The return of George Kittle only helps, as he is one of the better blocking tight ends in football.
We are banking on the running game a lot, but neither of these backs feature Derrick Henry-esque rushing props. These rushing props leave plenty of room for the passing game to get involved and move the ball down the field.
Cooper Kupp Over 93.5 Receiving Yards
Speaking of the passing game, I wanted to add the most likely feature piece of the Rams’ passing attack. If this game is going over, Cooper Kupp will be involved early and often. One of the more underrated players in the NFL, Kupp seems to be open all of the time despite the lack of another true threat for defenses to be concerned with.
After a down week against the Broncos in Week 3, I anticipate Kupp will go back to his normal workload. Kupp eclipsed 100 receiving yards in the first two contests. If this game degenerates into a back-and-forth affair (pretty please!), Kupp could be in for a very big night.
The simulations like the addition, locking in a far better price on FanDuel than ParlayIQ thinks we should be offered for this ticket.
MNF Same Game Parlay Review
- Over 42.5 Points
- Cam Akers Over 43.5 Rushing Yards
- Jeff Wilson Over 55.5 Rushing Yards
- Cooper Kupp Over 93.5 Receiving Yards
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As mentioned, the ParlayIQ simulations are a fan of this same game parlay. Here is the price recommended by ParlayIQ:
FanDuel Sportsbook offers a nice boost to this ticket at the following price:
So, after a disappointing Sunday Night Football same game parlay that was only in play for about a quarter, we are back on the side of ParlayIQ for tonight’s game. Good luck with your same game parlay bets!
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PLACE THIS BET ON Parlay Price: +1069
Risk: 1/2 unit to win 5.345 units
Good luck with all of your bets and plays this evening. Share your parlays with me on Twitter and any other plays you are making for the game. First touchdown scorers? Touchdowns? DFS lineups? I want to hear it all. Thanks for reading.
Image Credit: Imagn