Texas Rangers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks - Game 3 Odds, Prediction, & Pick
Rangers vs. Diamondbacks Odds
| Rangers Odds | -115 |
| Diamondbacks Odds | -105 |
| Over/Under | 9.5 |
| Date | Mon, Oct. 30 |
| Time | 8:03 p.m. |
| TV | FOX |
On Monday night, Max Scherzer and the Texas Rangers will battle Brandon Pfaadt and the Arizona Diamondbacks in Game 3 of this year’s World Series. These two teams split the first two games of this series in Texas, setting up a pivotal swing-game this evening in the desert. First pitch between the Rangers and Diamondbacks tonight is scheduled for 8:03 p.m. ET on FOX.
Ahead of first pitch, oddsmakers have priced the Rangers as -115 favorites on the moneyline. The total for this contest is set at over/under 9.5 runs.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where baseball bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Texas Rangers
What to expect from Max Scherzer
The Max Scherzer experiment has been extremely underwhelming so far this October for the Rangers. Scherzer returned from injury during the American League Championship, but was a diminished version of his ace-like self, posting a 9.45 ERA across 6.2 innings of work, spanning two starts.
In his second start of the ALCS against Houston, Scherzer had good velocity on each of his offerings, but his spin rates were down dramatically for his second consecutive outing. As a result of reduced spin rates, his contact rates have been up considerably, compared to their regular season benchmark. Assuming Scherzer has not found any magic dust to fix this issue in the last seven days, he is likely to struggle once again on Monday.
Texas offense sputtering to start World Series
Texas scored six runs in Game 1 of the World Series, but three of those runs came in the ninth inning or later on home runs from their two biggest contributors – Corey Seager and Adolis Garica. Outside of Seager and Garcia, the team had only five hits, two runs-batted-in (RBI), and two runs scored. Combined, they went 1-for-7 with runners-in-scoring-position (RISP) and left 12 men-on-base.
In Game 2, the Rangers’ offense was even worse, scoring only one run on four hits in a blowout loss. Texas never even threatened in that contest, getting only one man to scoring position for the entire game.
Arizona was unwilling to give Seager and Garcia much of anything in the strike zone in Game 2, instead forcing someone else to do the heavy lifting for the Texas offense. This group desperately needs someone to step up tonight in Game 3.
Texas bullpen in good shape heading into Game 3
Heading into Game 3, Manager Bruce Bochy has all of his high-leverage relievers available and rested. Jose Leclerc threw 26 pitches in Game 1, but did not pitch on Saturday, meaning that he has had multiple days of rest between his last outing and tonight. Aroldis Chapman and Josh Sborz have not pitched since the ALCS.
The middle innings continue to be a major concern for this arm barn, but there are no fatigue or stamina issues of which to be mindful this evening.
Arizona Diamondbacks
Brandon Pfaadt gets the ball for Arizona
Brandon Pfaadt has been sensational for Arizona this postseason, excluding a poor start in the Wild Card round against the Brewers. In his last four turns through the rotation, Pfaadt has allowed only two earned runs in 14.0 innings of work. He struck out a career-best nine batters in his first start in the National League Championship, and then followed that up with seven strikeouts in his next trip to the mound.
Against the Phillies, Pfaadt had significantly increased velocity on his sweeper and significantly increased spin rates across the board on his sweeper, 4-seam fastball, and sinker. Pfaadt has sustained these increases relative to his regular season average in back-to-back starts, making it likely that they manifest again in Game 3 tonight. If that is the case, Pfaadt is positioned for another strong showing.
Arizona wreaking havoc on the basepaths
Arizona has recorded five stolen bases in their last two games, and they show few signs of slowing down anytime soon. The Diamondbacks are overmatched in nearly every facet of this World Series matchup, but their one opportunity to shorten the talent disparity is their ability to run the bases at a high level.
Assuming Manager Tony Lovullo continues to be aggressive in Game 3, this Arizona lineup should have little trouble putting pressure on Max Scherzer this evening.
Diamondbacks’ bullpen in poor shape
In Game 1, Arizona was forced to use all of their high-leverage bullpen options, which was particularly concerning given the fact that the Diamondbacks lost the game. Fortunately for this unit, the offense did the heavy lifting in Game 2, which avoided a situation in which Paul Sewald, Kevin Ginkel, and Ryan Thompson were forced into action on consecutive nights.
Tonight, Lovullo has his entire relief unit rested and available. This is Arizona’s best opportunity to win a game in this series, with the better starting pitcher, and a fully rested bullpen in their corner.
Rangers vs. Diamondbacks – Picks & Predictions
The Arizona Diamondbacks do not even deserve to be in the postseason, but that is beside the point now that they are only three wins away from winning the World Series. Arizona has benefited from a great deal of luck and favorable circumstances, but they have created their own luck in many ways, simply by being relentless.
Tonight, the Diamondbacks actually match up well against the Rangers. Arizona has the better starting pitcher, an equally rested bullpen, and their ability to wreak havoc on the basepaths gives them a clear path to victory in this spot. It is likely that the wrong team is favored in Game 3.
PICK: Diamondbacks Moneyline (-105, Fanatics Sportsbook)