Ravens vs. Bengals Odds, Picks, and Prediction
Ravens vs. Bengals Odds
| Ravens Odds | +9.5 |
| Bengals Odds | -9.5 |
| Over/Under | 39.5 |
| Date | Sun, Jan. 8 |
| Time | 1:00 p.m. |
| TV | CBS |
The Baltimore Ravens will travel to Paycor Stadium on Sunday to battle the Cincinnati Bengals in the regular season finale for both teams. Entering play, Baltimore is 10-6, sitting in second place in the AFC North, behind Cincinnati. Though the Bengals have technically clinched the division title, a rule change implemented this past week could lead to the Ravens hosting a wild-card game between these two teams next weekend if Baltimore can pull off an upset in Week 18. Nevertheless, oddsmakers are not expecting this last minute rule change to have an impact, pricing the Bengals as 9.5-point home favorites on the spread in this intra-division matchup.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Baltimore Ravens
Offense limping without Lamar
In five games since Tyler Huntley took over as the team’s starting quarterback, the offense has produced 10, 16, 3, 17, and 13 points, respectively. In that span, this group ranks 22nd in overall EPA, 24th in dropback EPA, and 9th in rush EPA. Huntley has thrown for 138 yards or fewer in each of his last four games, and his extremely low average depth of target is further proof of the limitations he brings with him to the field. Huntley was also limited at practice all week with a right shoulder injury, creating even more doubt as to whether he will be able to turn in an effective performance this weekend.
Defense struggling down the stretch
In Jackson’s absence, the defense has also struggled, despite playing five anemic offenses since the beginning of December. In their last five games, Baltimore has played five games against teams that rank 16th or worse in points per game this fall, including three games against teams that rank 29th or worse in points per game. On Sunday, this unit will have to deal with a Cincinnati offense that ranks eighth in points per game in 2022, and leads the league in offensive EPA since Week 9.
Key injury news
Defensive lineman Michael Pierce is on injured reserve and has not played more than 11 snaps in a game since Week 2. In his absence, Baltimore’s defense ranks 12th in EPA overall, 18th in dropback EPA, and 7th in rush EPA.
Defensive lineman Calais Campbell is listed as questionable for Sunday after not practicing on Friday. One of the more complete defensive players in the league, Campbell’s absence would be a big deal for this unit.
Cornerback Marcus Peters is listed as questionable after logging a limited practice session on Friday. Since Peters last played in Week 15, the Ravens’ secondary unit ranks 15th in dropback EPA, despite facing Desmond Ridder and Kyle Pickett – two rookie signal callers in that span.
Cincinnati Bengals
Big night for Burrow?
Entering the final week of the regular season, Joe Burrow ranks fifth in passing yards, second in passing touchdowns, and eight in QBR among qualified signal callers. During Cincinnati’s seven-game winning streak, Burrow has posted a 17-to-6 touchdown-to-interception ratio, and has multiple games with more than 350 passing yards. Since the beginning of November, the Bengals lead the NFL in offensive EPA, with a balanced approach through the air and on the ground that has made them nearly impossible to defend.
Missing Awuzie
Prior to losing cornerback Chidobe Awuzie to a season-ending injury, the Bengals had one of the better secondary units in the league. Heading into Week 18, this is a unit that is struggling mightily to slow down opposing passing attacks. Per Pro Football Focus, starting cornerbacks Eli Apple and Cam Taylor-Britt both rank 100th or worse out of 123 players at their position in defense grade in 2022. Facing an anemic Baltimore passing attack, this vulnerability is less of a concern, but it is an area of which to be mindful if planning on betting on the Bengals in the postseason.
Key injury news
Cornerback Chidobe Awuzie is on injured reserve and last played a full allotment of snaps in Week 7. From Week 1 to Week 7, Cincinnati’s defense ranked 6th in EPA overall and 6th in dropback EPA. From Week 8 to Week 17, the Bengals rank 19th in EPA overall and 25th in dropback EPA.
Cornerback Eli Apple and edge defender Sam Hubbard are both expected to play.
Ravens vs. Bengals – Picks & Predictions
Despite Baltimore’s numerous areas of weakness heading into this matchup, it is doubtful that they get blown-out in a game that would potentially allow them to host a playoff game next weekend. Facing an intra-division opponent, the Ravens are likely to have a strong game plan against a team with which they have plenty of familiarity. Buy a half-point to get push potential on the key number of 10, but take Baltimore to cover the spread in this spot.
PICK: Ravens +10 (-120, MGM)
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