Baltimore Ravens vs. Cleveland Browns Odds, Prediction & Pick
Ravens vs. Browns Odds
| Ravens Odds | +2 |
| Browns Odds | -2 |
| Over/Under | 39.5 |
| Date | Sun, Oct. 1 |
| Time | 1:00 p.m. |
| TV | CBS |
On Sunday afternoon, the Baltimore Ravens and Cleveland Browns will meet on the shores of Lake Erie in an AFC North battle. Entering play, both Baltimore and Cleveland are 2-1, with the winner coming out of Week 4 with sole possession of first place in the division.
Ahead of kickoff in this matchup, oddsmakers have priced the Browns as 2-point favorites on the spread. The total for this contest is set at over/under 39.5 points.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Baltimore Ravens
Ravens’ offense dealing with injuries
Heading into the weekend, the Ravens have already ruled out wide receivers Rashod Bateman and Odell Beckham, while listing starting center Tyler Linderbaum and starting left tackle Ronnie Staley as questionable and doubtful, respectively. Staley’s likely absence at left tackle is a significant problem for Baltimore. Patrick Mekari, the team’s backup left tackle, has allowed four pressures and a sack in only 87 pass-blocking snaps this year. Baltimore’s backup center, Sam Mustipher, has proven capable of filling in for Linderbaum, allowing zero pressures in 84 pass-blocking snaps. Nevertheless, this will be a tough test for this unit up front, facing a Cleveland pass rush that has pressured the opposing quarterback north of 30.0% of the time in each of their first three games to begin the new campaign.
Can Baltimore’s defense get pressure on Watson?
In Week 1, Baltimore’s defense generated a 39.0% pressure rate, which was 7th-best in the NFL during the opening week of action. In Week 2, this unit sputtered, with only a 15.0% pressure rate. However, they rebounded in Week 3, finishing with a 35.7% pressure rate – which was the 8th-best mark in the league for the week.
Deshaun Watson has struggled mightily under pressure so far this fall, with a 41.4% completion rate and only 5.0 yards per attempt in such situations. The Ravens will be missing some key defensive players on Sunday, but they will have Jadeveon Clowney and Michael Pierce available who rank first and second on the team in pressures so far this season. This group should still be able to put together a strong performance in this spot.
Cleveland Browns
Deshaun Watson listed as questionable
According to Mary Kay Cabot of Cleveland.com, Deshaun Watson is expected to play on Sunday against the Ravens, but there are legitimate questions as to how healthy he will be if he takes the field. On Friday, Watson reportedly threw only two passes during the portion of practice open to the media before spending the next half hour with the team’s head trainer. Typically, players will need to get meaningful reps at Friday’s practice to play on Sunday, but head coach Kevin Stefanski remains optimistic that Watson will be available in this contest.
Greg Newsome returns to action
Cornerback Greg Newsome missed Cleveland’s Week 3 tilt against the Tennessee Titans, but was able to log a full practice on Thursday and Friday this week and does not carry an injury designation into this weekend’s action against Baltimore. Newsome’s return is a big boon to a Browns’ secondary unit that has played exceptional football early in 2023. Last weekend, Martin Emerson Jr., who was Newsome’s replacement, was the only weak link in an otherwise flawless defensive performance. The Browns’ defense leads the NFL in EPA/play and success rate during the first month of the year and should have another strong performance against the Ravens in Week 4.
Ravens vs. Browns – Picks & Predictions
Intra-division games have a tendency to gravitate towards being lower scoring due to both teams being extremely familiar with one another. On Sunday, both Baltimore and Cleveland will be fielding backup offensive lineman at key positions against two defenses that have excelled at generating pressure on quarterbacks through the first three weeks of the season. Factoring in Deshaun Watson’s apparently serious shoulder injury and Nick Chubb’s absence from the Cleveland offense, it would not be surprising to see this contest end up being a defensive slugfest this weekend.
PICK: Under 39.5 (-110, Fanatics Sportsbook)