Reverse Engineering: The Masters
Jordan Spieth ran away from the field at the 2015 Masters Tournament, earning the Green Jacket with a record-setting performance over his first three rounds. The young Texan dominated the course in Tiger-like fashion for three days, and held on with some excellent shots on the final day to keep his lead intact.
It was only the second entry into the Masters for Spieth, who only turned pro in 2012 and is already one of the top golfers in the world. Likewise, DraftKings user BrettMarino has only been playing on the site for a few months, and has fewer than 30 PGA games under his belt on the site, but managed to take down the biggest prize in fantasy golf history by nailing the perfect lineup in his only entry to the contest.
And I don’t mean “perfect” in a figurative sense, like when someone says they played a “perfect” round of golf or made a “perfect” batch of pancakes. I mean actually perfect, as in our lineup optimization efforts could not find a better group of six golfers than the one put together by BrettMarino. The odds of picking the right combination of six from a group of 96 golfers can only be expressed in scientific notation, and even if you knew the 55 golfers who would make the cut for the event, the odds of picking the right six are still in north of 20 trillion to one.
So let’s consider each golfer selected by fantasy golf’s first millionaire, and see what we can learn before putting together lineups for the next Millionaire Maker for the U.S. Open in June.
Jordan Spieth
It should come as no surprise that the runaway winner of the Masters was on a majority of the top-100 entries in the Millionaire Maker event. In fact, according to DK, 92 of the top 100 lineups had the champion in their lineups. The bigger surprise is that eight players cashed in the top-100 without the Texan among their six picks.
Since the HSBC Champions event last November, here is a list of Spieth’s finishes at the events he’s entered on Tour: 35, Win, 7, Cut, 7, 4, 17, Win, 2, 2, Win. So if you pick your golfers on recent history, Spieth had everything you could ask for. And while he didn’t have extensive history at the Masters prior to this past weekend, he did finish second in 2014, a clear sign that his game was suited well to the course. He “only” managed a -5 with all four rounds at par or better a year ago in his first competitive trip around the course, so we probably should have seen this year’s breakout coming.
Of course, not everyone uses form and history to pick their golfers. So what statistics could have led us to picking Spieth? In the week leading up to the event, many fantasy golf experts were pointing to driving distance, putting statistics, par 5 scoring and greens in regulation as key indicators for success at Augusta. Since the redesign of the course to account for Tiger Woods’ dominance a few years ago, driving distance has been seen as a key qualifier when picking winners, but an ability to hit it straight and play well on the greens is still important, and Spieth proved that.
The champion’s 2015 statistics after the Masters shed some light on which attributes we should focus on moving forward at the April major tournament. Spieth is currently fourth on tour in Strokes Gained: Putting, and boasts an elite 3-Putt avoidance percentage as well. In fact, nearly all of his putting statistics are in the top-20 on Tour, with most in the single digits.
He’s not a bomber off the tee, averaging only 292.5 yards on his drives (which ranks just outside the top-60 in the PGA this season), and his par-5 scoring isn’t elite. That remained somewhat true at the Masters, as he failed to record an eagle over the course of the event. But his ability to pick up six shots on par 4 holes over the first two days stands out as a reason to trust in solid all-around players rather than chasing booming tee-shot artists on tough courses like this.
Spieth gains strokes with his excellent play from the fairway and on the green, and that made him a top play at the challenging Augusta National course. And at this point, Spieth has entered “Russell Westbrook without Kevin Durant” territory, and may not be fade-able in golf contests until his price catches up with his insane ability and current form.
Justin Rose
But there’s more to winning a golf tournament than picking the winner. A six-man team means filling out a roster with other top plays, and Rose turned out to be just that, and he came with a low ownership that was great for tournaments. He’s a bit longer off the tee than Spieth, but is a much, much worse putter. When he’s at his best, he’s a killer on Par 5s, picking up eagles more often than most other players on Tour.
So what made him a solid play this week? A strong history at the Masters combined with the ability to hit the ball far and find the green in regulation. Rose has finished in the top-25 at Augusta seven times prior to this year, and despite being in awful form coming into this week’s event, he is still one of the top players in world golf and was criminally underrated by the field of players in the Millionaire Maker event.
This made him an elite tournament play, as many would be scared off by his poor play this season and his general putting struggles. But sometimes in tournaments, you’re going to have to bank on a guy getting hot with the flat stick to compliment his other skills, and that happened for Rose this week.
Phil Mickelson
Distance off the tee? Phil is good there. History at the Masters? Despite a couple of missteps in recent years, we know he’s capable of winning on this course. And while he’s not a great putter, and certainly has his fair share of 3-putts, he’s capable of putting it all together and going low, just like we saw with Rose.
Mickelson and Rose are two of the best golfers in the world and have a history of low scores on this course. No matter what the other statistics say, as long as they’re at full health and not well past their prime, they’re always going to be an option in DFS golf at Augusta. When you have the salary to pay up for a top option, sometimes it’s just as easy as picking the proven commodity and watching as he closes out the tournament with red numbers that pile up the green numbers in your DFS account.
Charley Hoffman
Hoffman was one of the lower owned players to hit for many of the top lineups this weekend, as the early leader (who eventually gave way to Spieth) came out of the gates hot before ESPN and CBS had even turned the cameras on. He was able to score a birdie streak and hole an eagle, which boosted his score for DFS purposes despite a lackluster final round.
So what led to Hoffman as a solid pick this past week? He has a similar statistical profile this season to Rose, as he’s long off the tee and finds the green in regulation very often, but isn’t always on point with the putter. This explains his success and his inconsistency this season at Augusta National, and it explains why his recent tournament history includes two top-11 finishes and a missed cut in three consecutive events.
Russell Henley
Henley is a Georgia Bulldog playing in the Masters in his home state, and he looked comfortable for most of the weekend as he posted a solid score for a good price on DraftKings. Henley is a poor man’s Spieth when it comes to his strengths, as he’s a great putter who handles par 4s better than par 5s, and doesn’t rely on huge drives or killer approach shots to consistently find the hole for a red number.
He had some worrisome recent history, as a fourth-place finish at the Shell Houston Open was preceded by five events outside the top-40. His track record at the Masters was a bit lacking, as well, with only two appearances prior to this year, with a 31st being his better finish.
Henley got hot with two birdie streaks, and also had an eagle, and these helped boost his score despite a -3 finish for the tournament. These types of statistics are tough to predict, and wind up being just a part of the variance in this growing DFS offering.
Kevin Na
I’ve saved the best for last, as I have to admit a fault on Kevin Na… I didn’t even begin to consider Na as an option this past week, and it was obviously to my detriment. Every other player in this optimal lineup hits the ball at least 293 yards off the tee, while Na only averages 276 yards on his drives. I simply did not think this would be enough to succeed on the lengthy Par 72 at Augusta National.
I was quite wrong.
The South Korean-born Na has excellent statistics when it comes to playing around the green, as he’s a great scrambler and was a strong putter last season before his numbers took a bit of a dip to start 2015. Na had recent form on his side, as well, with three top-10 performances over his last five entries coming into the Masters.
Eliminating Na from my options this weekend was a huge mistake, as his bargain bin price provided excellent return with a -6 score (including an eagle). Clearly my thought process wasn’t one shared by the masses, as he was nearly 20% owned in the Millionaire Maker, but allow my mistake, and BrettMarino’s wise choice, to be a lesson to everyone. Don’t eliminate a good golfer based on one statistic, especially not driving distance. Zach Johnson has been a career 280 driver, and he took home the Green Jacket not long after years of lengthening adjustments to the course to account for players like Tiger Woods posting all-time great scores.