Round 1 Best Bets For Friday & Saturday: Texas Tech -4, Ohio +7.5 & More
I’m sure there are many of you in a moral dilemma. To call in sick and watch all 16 games on Friday or not? With the potential of massive upsets, buzzer beaters, and typical March pandemonium, I certainly won’t judge you for playing hooky. I get the excitement. It’s been over 700 days since the last NCAA Tournament game. Needless to say, I can’t sleep either. I’ve filled out my bracket, and now I’m looking at CBB lines at online sportsbooks. Here are my favorite NCAA tournament bets against the spread for the first round of 64 on Friday and Saturday.
Round 1 Best Bets — Friday & Saturday
No. 6. Texas Tech -4 vs. No. 11. Utah St.
48-year-old Chris Beard has already developed a reputation as one of the scariest coaches to face in the NCAA tournament. In 2016, his first year as a D-1 head coach, he took Arkansas Little Rock to the Round of 32 as a 12-seed with a 30-5 record. He then went to Lubbock to take over a Texas Tech program that had made one NCAA Tournament in the previous nine season. In his second year, he took the Red Raiders to the Elite 8 as a 3-seed, giving eventual national champion Villanova a run for their money. And then in our last NCAA tournament Texas Tech made it all the way to the final Monday before losing the national championship game in overtime to the Virginia Cavaliers. So yes, you could say he’s surpassed expectation at the Big Dance. I believe that will be the case again this year. This Texas Tech team is 17-10, but has performed well on the road which is a good sign for a team’s chances in the tournament. They’ve won at Texas, at LSU, and at Oklahoma. This team is also very close to being a 4 or 3 seed if a few coin flips would have gone the other way. Six of their losses have been by six points or fewer, and they have had three one-point losses. This is a gritty defensive-minded team, led by a gritty coach and an explosive star player in Mac McClung, who averages 16 points per game. Utah State, their opponent, has really struggled away from home. They hang their hat on the defensive end of the floor, similar to Texas Tech, and are the 8th ranked defense in the country according to KenPom metrics. The problem for the Aggies is that their defense doesn’t seem to travel. In my opinion they got into the NCAA tournament due to a fortunate schedule with many of these mid-major conferences playing back-to-backs as they avoided as much travel as possible. In their eight games against the other top 5 teams in the Mountain West, Utah State got six of them at home. They gave up 79 and 81 in losses to Boise State, who didn’t make the tournament. They’ve also given up 85 to VCU and 83 to South Dakota St. in losses on neutral floors. I believe the Red Raiders will win by more than two possessions and cover the 4-point spread.
No. 12. Winthrop +6.5 vs. No. 5. Villanova
Villanova was among the top 5 teams thought to have a chance to cut down the nets to begin the season. They never quite reached their potential throughout this season. Then Collin Gillespie, their senior leader at point guard, hurt his knee and will miss entirety of the tournament. In their last two games without him they’ve lost to Providence, who isn’t in the field, and Georgetown who only made the postseason qualifier in the Big East by winning that tournament. Winthrop, meanwhile, is 23-1. Many people might scoff at their competition in the Big South, and understandably so. However, I don’t care who you are playing, you are going to have a lot of confidence and momentum if you win 95% of your games during the season. They have played two quad 2 opponents, Furman who they beat by 16, and UNC Greensboro who is a 13 seed in this tournament by 8 points on a neutral floor. This team plays at a blistering pace, 11th in the country in tempo. Villanova prefers to slow it down, 320th in tempo, but they are 68th this season in defensive efficiency, which has held them back. Ultimately I see Winthrop dictating the pace of this round 1 game without Gillespie on the court. I look for Winthrop to maybe even be able to pull off this upset — at the very least, I have confidence in the Eagles keeping the score within six points.
No. 14. Eastern Washington +10.5 vs. No .3. Kansas
Kansas and Bill Self have had a reputation of falling short of expectations in the NCAA Tournament before. I was in what was then the Ford Center, now Chesapeake Energy Arena, in 2005 to watch 14-seeded Bucknell knock of 3-seeded Kansas in Oklahoma City. The following year Bill and the Jayhawks were upset in the first round as a 4-seed. I was not high on this year’s Kansas team as we entered the season. I didn’t think they’d have a guy that could take on the scoring load like we’ve seen previously from guys such as Frank Mason, Devonte’ Graham, and Devon Dotson. I believe Jalen Wilson is this team’s most dynamic player at 6-8, averaging 12 points and 8 rebounds per game, and he will miss the first round of the NCAA Tournament due to COVID. Eastern Washington won 13 of their last 14 games before making the tournament as an automatic qualifier in the Big Sky. Where can they hurt you? Their top scorers are Tanner Groves, a 6-9 forward that averages 16 points and 8 rebounds, and Kim Aiken, a 6-7 guard who averages 12 points and 8.5 rebounds. Missing Jalen Wilson is potentially a tournament-jeopardizing absence for the Jayhawks. Similar the pick above (Winthrop), I believe Eastern Washington is capable of not only covering the 10.5 points but could win this game outright. Jayhawks, watch out.
No. 7. UConn -2.5 vs. No. 10. Maryland
If you read my bracket tips, you know about my love for balanced teams. As I mentioned in that piece, UCONN checks the box. Again, I think the Huskies are more of a 3-seed masquerading as a 7-seed because James Bouknight missed 8 games. Bouknight has proven to be the key piece for this team, and is one of the best scorers in the country, averaging 20 points to go along with 6 rebounds. They went 4-4 without him, but they were 11-3 with him. They are a completely different team with a healthy James Bouknight and I believe this will show in this first-round matchup. They are also very balanced by being top 25 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Maryland has 13 losses. In a normal year, the Terrapins would have missed out on the dance. However, in a shortened season, past precedents were thrown out and Maryland received their invitation. If they hadn’t escaped with a victory in Illinois, I don’t believe they would have made it. This will be a low-scoring game as both teams are in the 300’s ranking in tempo in the country. I still see UConn being able to win by more than one possession as they are significantly underrated. UCONN -2.5 is one of my favorite first round picks.
No. 13. Ohio +7.5 vs. No. 4. Virginia
I have also talked about this game being my favorite upset pick, so of course I love Ohio to cover the 7.5 points. There are too many aspects in play for why I like the Bobcats in this one. When we’ve seen upsets in the past, it’s often because the underseeded team has the best basektball player on the floor. Think about Steph Curry at Davidson, Ja Morant at Murray State, Thomas Walkup at Stephen F. Austin. Ohio’s Jason Preston is a guy that can have a similar impact. He’s 6-4 playing the point guard position, and can do a bit of everything. He haverages 16 points, 7 assists, and 7 rebounds while snagging nearly 3 steals per contest. He has other guys that can help him, and this team is much more than just Preston. They have four other starters averaging double digits, two of whom have some size standing in at a 6-8. This team has also played my national champion pick, Illinois, and only lost by two points. This is the best offensive automatic qualifier that’s a 12-seed or worse and it isn’t close. They are 29th in the country in offensive efficiency. Meanwhile Virginia is not the defensive team we’ve seen in the past where they have been top 7 in the country for seven straight seasons. This year they are 33rd, and their defense is highly susceptible. Florida State beat this team by 21, Gonzaga scored 98 on them and won by 23, and San Francisco was able to grab a win against them, too. The Cavaliers also have had some difficulty with COVID and won’t arrive in Indianapolis until Friday. Who knows if everyone will even be good to play? The combination of Preston, Ohio being able to dictate things offensively with UVA’s defensive struggles, and other covid-related uncertainty makes me confident in Ohio giving UVA a scare.