Saints vs. Packers Betting Odds, Prediction, & Pick
Saints vs. Packers Odds
| Saints Odds | +14 |
| Packers Odds | -14 |
| Over/Under | 43.5 |
| Date | Monday, December 23 |
| Time | 8:15 PM ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Week 16 of the NFL regular season will wrap up with a Monday Night Football affair between the New Orleans Saints and Green Bay Packers from Lambeau Field. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15 p.m. ET on ESPN and ABC.
Ahead of kickoff, oddsmakers have priced the Packers as 14-point home favorites on the spread. The total is set at 43.5 points.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks.
According to RotoGrinders Chief Meteorologist, Kevin Roth, temperatures are expected to be around 30 degrees, with light winds and potentially some flurries this evening in Green Bay. Based on historical games matching current weather conditions, tonight’s forecast shouldn’t be too impactful on either team’s game plan. Be sure to utilize the RotoGrinders NFL WeatherEdge Tool for any game that could be affected by the forecast.
New Orleans Saints Preview
Rattler to start at quarterback for Saints on Monday
Spencer Rattler, selected in the 5th round of this past summer’s draft by the Saints, will start on Monday Night Football against the Packers. Rattler has played in 4 games this season, but the results haven’t been particularly impressive.
New Orleans is 0-4 in those games, with Rattler completing only 57.5% of his pass attempts for 2 touchdowns against 2 interceptions. This season, Rattler ranks 42nd in EPA/play, 42nd in success rate, and 41st in CPOE among 43 quarterbacks with 150+ plays. Put another way, he’s been one of the league’s most inefficient signal callers in his limited playing time as a rookie.
The New Orleans offense faces an uphill battle this evening, especially considering that RB Alvin Kamara has also been ruled out for this matchup.
What to expect from New Orleans defense
Since New Orleans’ Week 12 bye, their defense ranks 15th in EPA/play and 13th in success rate. During that stretch, they have been a top-10 unit against the pass, but rank 23rd in EPA/play and 23rd in success rate against opposing ground attacks.
The Saints allowed 104 rushing yards on only 15 carries to Kyren Williams in Week 13. The last two weeks, New Orleans’ primary vulnerability has been containing the quarterback, allowing Drew Lock to run for 59 yards against them in Week 14 and Jayden Daniels to total 66 rushing yards against them in Week 15.
Jordan Love doesn’t take off very often, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see him escape the pocket for a first down once or twice this evening.
Green Bay Packers Preview
Love looking to continue playing mistake-free football
From Week 4 to Week 9, Jordan Love threw a league-high 9 interceptions and ranked 24th out of 40 qualified quarterbacks in turnover-worthy play rate. Since the team’s Week 10 bye, Love has looked like a completely different quarterback, with an 8-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio and one of the lowest rates of turnover-worthy throws in the entire NFL.
Increasingly, it is looking as though Love was playing at less than 100 percent health when he first returned to the football field in Week 4. The bye week and a couple of extended rest weeks seem to have paid dividends for Love’s health and his confidence in the pocket.
Since Week 11, Love ranks 2nd in EPA/play, 2nd in success rate, and 3rd in CPOE among qualified quarterbacks. There aren’t many players who are performing at a higher level than him right now.
Bullard, Walker ruled OUT
S Javon Bullard and LB Quay Walker have both been ruled out for tonight’s matchup against the Saints. Though neither player has been having a phenomenal season by many advanced metrics, it’s still worth noting that Walker leads Green Bay’s defense in tackles, tackles for loss, and has added 2.5 sacks in 2024. Bullard is 4th on the team in tackles this year, making him a notable absence as well.
The good news for this unit is that the aforementioned injuries are likely to be offset somewhat by the expected return of CB Jaire Alexander. Alexander has been battling a PCL injury that has kept him off of the field for the last month, but he was a full participant at practice on Thursday, Friday, and Saturday this week, meaning that he is trending toward suiting up this evening.
The Packers’ secondary ranks 24th in success rate since Alexander last played meaningful snaps in Week 8. From Week 6 to Week 8, with Alexander healthy, Green Bay’s pass defense ranked 16th in success rate. He is one of the most important pieces for this aggressive defense that likes to play a lot of press coverage.
Saints vs. Packers Prediction
New Orleans is in the midst of a lost season, but their defense is as healthy as it has been in a while and has been doing a reasonably good job keeping the team competitive over the last month. Since their bye, the Saints defense has allowed 326 yards of total offense or fewer against the Rams, Giants, and Commanders. Though not elite, that’s still far from a disaster.
Jordan Love and company enter play having scored at least 30 points in each of their last 4 contests, but they rank 24th in pace since their bye week when they have a 7+ point lead. It wouldn’t be surprising to see them take their foot off of the gas late if they have a sizable advantage.
PICK: Packers Team Total, Under 28.5 Points (-105, DraftKings)
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